BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, March 6th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.06% ahead of the release of the U.S. Feb payrolls report, which may offer clues to the timing of U.S. interest rate increases, while European stocks are up +0.01% as the ECB prepares to begin asset purchases on Monday and after German Jan industrial production was stronger than expected. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.17%, Hong Kong -0.12%, China -0.51%, Taiwan +0.53%, Australia -0.09%, Singapore +0.66%, South Korea +0.71%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 14-3/4 year high as USD/JPY held above 120 yen per dollar, near a 3-week high, which fueled a rally in exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.37%) is up +0.39%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.61%) is up +0.59%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.08%) is down -0.20% at a 1-week low as the dollar strengthened to an 11-1/3 year high. May copper (HGK15 -0.38%) is down -0.47% on increased global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories jumped +19,194 MT to a 1-3/4 year high of 224,340 MT and LME copper supplies rose +4,675 MT to a 13-month high of 323,050 MT. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) is up +0.45% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.80% at an 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%. GBP/USD slipped to a 1-month low after the BOE's quarterly inflation survey showed inflation expectations plummeted to a 13-year low. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.02%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
In its quarterly Inflation Attitudes survey, the BOE said inflation expectations in Feb fell to 1.9% over the next 12 months from 2.5% in Nov, below the BOE's 2.0% inflation target and the lowest in 13 years.
San Francisco Fed President Williams said mid-year may be time for a "serious discussion" about raising interest rates as the labor market nears full employment and inflation rebounds.
German Jan industrial production rose +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
The Japan Jan leading index CI unexpectedly fell -0.2 to 105.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 105.8. The Jan coincident index rose +2.4 to 113.0, stronger than expectations of +1.5 to 112.2 and the highest in 10 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb unemployment report is expected to show decent strength with a payroll increase of +235,000. Meanwhile, today’s Feb unemployment rate is expected to fall by -0.1 point to 5.6%, thus matching the 6-1/2 year low originally posted in Dec 2014. Today’s U.S. Jan trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$41.5 billion from -$46.6 billion in December. Today’s Jan consumer credit report is expected to show another strong increase of +$14.500 billion. There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Staples (consensus $0.30), Foot Locker (0.91), Big Lots (1.75), Thor Industries (0.42). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Foot Locker (FL -0.80%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.00, higher than consensus of 91 cents.
Textron (TXT +0.85%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
Esterline (ESL +0.63%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Host Hotels (HST -1.15%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Staples (SPLS -0.54%) reported Q4 EPS of 31 cents, better than consensus of 30 cents.
Airbus (EADSY +3.80%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
The Fed announced that all 31 banks passed their stress tests with Tier 1 capital above the required levels.
Alon USA Energy (ALJ +0.50%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0 cents, better than consensus of a -9 cent loss.
Devon Park Bioventures reported a 20.42% stake in Inotek Pharmaceuticals (ITEK unch) .
Thor Industries (THO -1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of 57 cents, well above consensus of 42 cents.
The Fresh Market (TFM +2.27%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, better than consensus of 51 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO +0.61%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.75, higher than consensus of $1.54.
The Gap (GPS -1.43%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it reported February same-store-sales fell 4% y/y.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.02%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.12%, Dow Jones +0.21%, Nasdaq +0.15%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the ECB raised its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from a Dec projection of 1.0% and unveiled its plan to purchase 60 billion euros a month of sovereign debt, and (2) increased M&A activity after AbbVie bought Pharmacyclics for $21 billion and Mallinckrodt purchased Ikaria for $2.3 billion. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected +7,000 increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 9-1/2 month high of 320,000, more than expectations for a decline of -18,000 to 295,000, and (2) the unexpected -0.2% decline in U.S. Jan factory orders, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% increase.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +5.00, FVM5 +4.75. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 9-1/2 month high, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Jan factory orders. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in stocks, and (2) the action by the ECB to raise its Eurozone 2015 GDP estimate, which reduced global growth concerns and curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) this morning is up +0.429 (+0.45%) at a fresh 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0088 (-0.80%) at a new 11-1/2 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Thursday climbed to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.413 (+0.43%), EUR/USD -0.00486 (-0.44%), USD/JPY +0.468 (+0.39%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which sank to a 11-1/2 year low after the ECB cut its Eurozone 2015 inflation forecast to 0.0% from a Dec estimate of +0.7% and said it will begin 60 billion euros worth of monthly sovereign debt purchases on Mar 9, and (2) the rally in USD/JPY to a 2-week high as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.37%) this morning is up +20 cents (+0.39%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.61%) is up +0.0112 (+0.59%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLJ5 -0.77 (-1.49%), RBJ5 -0.0314 (-1.63%). Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, and (2) demand concerns from China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, after China lowered its 2015 GDP target to 7.0%, the lowest in more than 15 years, from 7.5% in 2014. Apr crude posted a 1-1/2 week high on bullish factors that included (1) the action by Libya's National Oil Corp. to declare force majeure on oil supplies from 11 Libyan oil fields due to attacks on oil infrastructure from Islamic militants, and (2) the action by the ECB to raise its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from a Dec projection of 1.0%.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/06/2015

US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +235,000, Jan +257,000. Feb private payrolls expected +225,000, Jan +267,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +11,000, Jan +22,000. Feb unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.6%, Jan +0.1 to 5.7%.
	0830 ET	Feb avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Feb avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.6 hours.
	0830 ET	Jan trade balance expected -$41.5 billion, Dec -$46.6 billion.
	1500 ET	Jan consumer credit expected +$14.500 billion, Dec +$14.755 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan leading index CI expected +0.2 to 105.8, Dec 105.6. Jan coincident index expected +1.5 to 112.2, Dec 110.7.
GER	0200 ET	German Jan industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Q4 GDP, previous +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/06/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.907
Big Lots Inc	BIG US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	C4 2015
Staples Inc	SPLS US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Paramount Group Inc	PGRE US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.749
Thor Industries Inc	THO US		Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.42
Staples Inc	SPLS US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.3
PetSmart Inc	PETM US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015