Morning Call 12/4

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Mon Dec 4, 6:58AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.62%) this morning are up +0.62% at a new record high after the Senate on Saturday passed legislation that will cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% in 2019. Also giving U.S. equity markets a boost is the legislation in the House that will push the next funding deadline to the Friday before Christmas, which will avoid a potential partial government shutdown this Friday and give U.S. legislators time to put together a spending bill. In addition, U.S. political risks eased after ABC news suspended a reporter they said that had made a "serious error" on his report on former national security adviser Flynn, saying that Trump had not asked Flynn to contact Russia as a presidential candidate, but that Trump had asked Flynn to contact Russia when he was president-elect about issues including working together to fight ISIS. European stocks are up +1.20% as industrial companies with significant revenue exposure to the U.S. also moved higher on the passage of U.S. tax cuts. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.49%, Hong Kong +0.22%, China -0.24%, Taiwan +0.49%, Australia -0.07%, Singapore -0.32%, South Korea +1.23%, India +0.11%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.64% at a 2-week high as the rally in stocks reduces the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.24%) are down -8 ticks.

Eurozone Dec Sentix inventor confidence fell -2.9 to 31.1, weaker than expectations of -0.6 to 33.4.

Eurozone Oct PPI rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m, although Sep was revised downward to +0.5% m/m from the previously reported +0.6% m/m.

The Japan Nov consumer confidence index rose +0.4 to a 4-year high of 44.9. right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct factory orders (expected -0.4%, Sep +1.4% and +0.7% ex transportation), (2) USDA weekly grain export inspections.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Casey's General Store (consensus $1.39).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Cowen Energy & Natural Resources Conference on Mon-Tue, Mizuho Americas Global Investor Conference on Mon-Tue, Raymond James Technology Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Wells Fargo Event Information & Logistics Tech Summit on Mon-Wed, Global Mizuho Investor Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference on Tue-Wed, Nasdaq Investor Conference on Tue-Wed, NASDAQ Conference on Tue-Wed, Capital One Securities Energy Conference on Tue-Thu, Barclays Technology Conference on Wed, Berenberg Bank European Healthcare Conference on Wed, BIOMEDevice Conference on Wed, Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Pipeline MLP and Energy Symposium on Wed-Thu, Citi Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, th Capital Utah Corporate Access Event Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Emerging Technology Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Netflix (NFLX -0.41%) was initiated with a recommendation of 'Buy' at Moness, Crespi, Hardt & Co with a 12-month target price of $250.

United Parcel Service (UPS -0.94%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

Host Hotels (HST -1.41%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target price of $22.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL -0.72%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Benchmark Company LLC.

eBay (EBAY +1.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $45.

American Homes (AMH +0.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-line' t Evercore ISI with a target price of $25.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW -1.36%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at William Blair & Co.

Globus Medical (GMED -1.03%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities with a price target of $46.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL -1.42%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $101.

Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR +5.30%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of a joint venture with Saudi Aramco.

Amgen (AMGN +0.88%) gained +0.2% in after-hours trading after its Repatha drug was approved by the FDA to prevent heart attack and stroke.

Signet Jewelers (SIG -0.57%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cited alleged violations by Signet under the Truth in Lending Acts related to in-store credit practices, promotions, and payment protection products.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.62%) this morning are up +16.50 points (+0.62%) at a new record-nearest-futures high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.43%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on political turmoil after former national security adviser Flynn entered a plea agreement with prosecutors and agreed to cooperate in the investigation against the Trump administration. Stocks were also undercut by the -0.5 point decline in the U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing index to 58.2, slightly weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 58.3. Stocks rebounded from their worst levels after Senate Republicans said they had the votes to pass their tax bill.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.24%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH8 +12.00, FVH8 +3.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday shot higher on increased safe-haven demand after an ABC news report erroneously stated that former national security adviser Flynn would testify that President Trump told him to contact Russian officials. T-notes were also boosted by dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said if the Fed stays on the current pace of rate hikes the yield curve will invert and that would be negative for the U.S. economy.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.25 (+0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0040 (-0.34%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.72 (+0.64%) at a 2-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.162 (-0.17%), EUR/USD -0.0008(-0.07%), USD/JPY -0.37 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the plea agreement by former national security adviser Flynn, which took the Mueller investigation to the highest levels of the White House. The dollar was also undercut by the fall in the 10-year T-note yield, which reduces the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Jan crude oil (CLF18 -1.03%) this morning is down -64 cents (-1.10%) and Jan gasoline (RBF18 -0.88%) is -0.0151 (-0.87%). Friday's closes: Jan WTI crude +0.96 (+1.67%), Jan gasoline +0.0116 (+0.67%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher on the weaker dollar and on positive carry-over from the action Thursday by OPEC and Russia to extend their crude production cuts until the end of 2018.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG18 -0.53%) -6.5 (-0.51%), Mar silver (SIH18 -0.29%) -0.053(-0.32%) and Mar copper (HGH18 +0.40%) +0.012 (+0.37%). Friday's closes: Feb gold +5.6 (+0.44%), Mar silver -0.086(-0.52%), Mar copper +0.0285 (+0.93%). Metals on Friday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by the slump in stocks, which boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Copper prices were supported by the -5,000 MT decline in LME copper inventories to a 17-3/4 month low, a sign of tighter copper supplies. Silver and copper prices were undercut by the bigger-than-expected decline in the U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing index, which was negative for industrial metals demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2017

		Monday, Dec 4
US	1000 ET	Oct factory orders expected -0.4%, Sep +1.4% and +0.7% ex transportation.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
		Tuesday, Dec 5
US	0830 ET	Oct trade balance expected -$47.4 billion, Sep -$43.5 billion.
	0945 ET	Revised Nov Markit services PMI expected +0.6 to 55.3, prelim-Nov -0.6 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Nov ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected -1.1 to 59.0, Oct +0.3 to 60.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2017

Name	Ticker	Time	Description	Period	Estimate
SL Green Realty Corp	SLG US	9:00	Investor Conference
Casey's General Stores Inc	CASY US		Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	1.391

5 Mid Caps for Momentum Investors

Today I wanted to find 5 Mid Cap stocks for Momentum Investors so I used Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index stocks first for the most frequent number of new highs in the last month then again for technical buy signals of 80% or more.  Today's watch list includes:

Trimble Navigation (TRMB), Stifel Financial (SF), Temper-Pedic International (TPX), MSCI Inc (MSCI) and Old Dominion Freight (ODFL)

Trimble Navigation (TRMB)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 15.77% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 67.91%
• Technical support level at 26.93
• Recently traded at 27.82 with a 50 day moving average of 25.79

Stifel Financial (SF)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 22.80% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 67.39%
• Technical support level at 35.94
• Recently traded at 37.46 with a 50 day moving average of 34.28

Temper-Pedic International (TPX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and  100 day moving averages
• 16 new highs and up 38.65% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 85.99%
• Technical support level at 75.97
• Recently traded at 78.31 with a 50 day moving average of 61.61

MSCI Inc (MSCI)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 10 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 9.21% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 74.91%
• Technical support level at 85.11
• Recently traded at 86.77 with a 50 day moving average of 79.35

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 14.06% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 75.05%
• Technical support level at 69.25
• Recently traded at 70.95 with a 50 day moving average of 63.37

BARCHART MORNING CALL /

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, June 29th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -1.01%) are down sharply by -1.12% at a 1-1/2 month low and European stocks are down-3.75% at a 1-week low on concern Greece will be forced to leave the Eurozone. The 10-year German bund yield sank to a 3-1/2 week low of 0.705% on increased safe-haven demand for government bonds from the Greek turmoil. Greece closed banks until at least July 6 and imposed capital controls in an attempt to avert a run on its banks. Trading on the Athens Stock Exchange will be closed as well until Jul 6. The move follows a breakdown of talks Friday between Greece and its creditors and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras's surprise announcement that he will put creditors’ demands up for a referendum to the Greek people to vote on July 5. The ECB on Sunday froze the level of emergency funds available to Greek banks at Friday's level of 89 billion euros. Asian stocks closed sharply lower: Japan -2.88%, Hong Kong -2.61%, China -3.34%, Taiwan -6.73%, Australia -2.23%, Singapore -1.23%, South Korea -1.27%, India -0.60%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped % to a 2-3/4 month low, despite the cut in interest rates by the PBOC on Saturday for the fourth time since Nov.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -2.23%) is down -2.38% at a 3-week low, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.31%) is down -1.66%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.40%) is up +0.31%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.55%) is down -0.81. Agricultural prices are higher with Jul wheat up +0.53% at a 5-3/4 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.10% at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.46% at a 3-1/2 week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.82% at a 1-month low as the plunge in global equity markets boosts safe-haven demand for the yen.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.75%) are up +1-05/32 points at a 3-1/2 week high.
The PBOC cut interest rates for the fourth time since Nov on Saturday when they lowered the 1-year lending rate by -25 bp to 4.85% and the 1-year deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.00%, and said reserve ratios for some lenders including city commercial and rural commercial banks will be cut by 50 bp.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May pending home sales (expected +1.4% m/m and +11.6% y/y after April's +3.4% m/m and +13.4% y/y), and (2) Jun Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook (expected +4.8 to -16.0 after May's -4.8 to -20.8).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Nasdaq Investor Program Conference on Tue

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Qualcomm (QCOM -0.90%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Drexel Hamilton.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.44%) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Ternium (TX -1.08%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Tesla shares (TSLA -0.63%) have 'substantially' more upside, says Credit Suisse.
Synaptics (SYNA -3.90%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
Chesapeake (CHK +0.45%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at Sterne Agee CRT.
Ryder (R -0.67%) and Old Dominion (ODFL -0.23%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Macy's(M +0.98%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
LifePoint (LPNT +0.59%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Mizuho.
LinkedIn (LNKD -0.90%) filed to sell 3.57 million shares of Class A common stock for holders.
First Light Asset reported a 5.16% passive stake in Streamline Health (STRM +6.93%) .
J.B. Hunt (JBHT -0.12%) will replace Integrys Energy (TEG +0.70%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Tuesday, June 30.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -1.01%) this morning are down -23.50 points (-1.12%) at a 1-1/2 month low. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones +0.31%, Nasdaq -0.66%. The S&P 500 on Friday rebounded from a 1-week low and closed little changed. The main supportive factor was the +1.5 point increase in the final-June U.S. consumer sentiment index, better than expectations of unchanged at 94.6 and the highest level in 5 months. The main negative factor was the decline in tech stocks sparked by an -18% plunge in shares of Micron after it reported weaker-than-expected sales and earnings.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.75%) this morning are up +1-05/32 points at a 3-1/2 week high. Friday's closes: TYU5 -18.00, FVU5 -8.50. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday fell to a 9-month nearest-futures low and closed lower. The main bearish factor was the stronger-than-expected Jun University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment report, which bolstered the case for a Fed interest rate increase sooner rather than later.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.100 (+0.10%) at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0051 (-0.4%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.01 (-0.82%) at a 1-month low. Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.285 (+0.30%), EUR/USD -0.00413 (-0.37%), USD/JPY +0.204 (+0.17%). The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 2-week high and closed higher on (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jun U.S. consumer sentiment index to a 5-month high, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-week low as the unresolved Greek debt crisis increased the risk of a Greek default.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -2.23%) this morning is down -$1.42 a brrrel (-2.38%) at a 3-week low. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.31%) is down -0.0336 (-1.66%). Friday's closes: CLQ5 -0.07 (-0.12%), RBQ5 +0.0077 (+0.38%). Aug crude oil and gasoline settled mixed Friday with Aug crude at a 2-week low. Negative factors included the rally in the dollar index to a 2-week high and concern that the U.S. crude oil supply glut will persist with U.S. crude oil inventories 84 million bbl above the 5-year average for this time of year.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/29/2015

US	1000 ET	May pending home sales expected +1.4% m/m and +11.6% y/y, Apr +3.4% m/m and +13.4% y/y.
	1030 ET	Jun Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook expected +4.8 to -16.0, May -4.8 to -20.8.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
UK	0430 ET	UK May net consumer credit expected +1.2 billion pounds, Apr +1.2 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	UK May mortgage approvals expected 68,800, Apr 68,100.
	0430 ET	UK May M4 money supply, Apr +0.4% m/m and unch y/y.
	1905 ET	UK Jun GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to 2, May 1.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jun economic confidence expected unch at 103.8. Jun business climate indicator expected -0.01 to 0.27, May 0.28.
	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Jun consumer confidence, previous unch at -5.6.
GER	0800 ET	German Jun CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y.
JPN	2130 ET	Japan May labor cash earnings expected +0.7% y/y, Apr +0.7% y/y. May real cash earnings expected +0.2% y/y, Apr -0.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/29/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Harmonic Inc	HLIT US	16:00	Annual General Meeting
Investors Real Estate Trust	IRET US	16:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.163
Apollo Education Group Inc	APOL US	17:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Apollo Education Group Inc	APOL US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.473
Fenix Parts Inc	FENX US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.045
Biglari Holdings Inc	BH US		Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.45
General Communication Inc	GNCMA US		Annual General Meeting
Isramco Inc	ISRL US		Annual General Meeting
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Inc	SPPI US		Annual General Meeting

5 Great Mid Caps

Today I sorted the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index to find the stocks with the best technical indicators and charts.  First, I sorted for new highs frequency in the last month, then I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  I skipped over a lot of charts till I found the consistency I liked.

Today list includes Essex Property Trust (ESS), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL), Equinix (EQIX), and Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI):

Essex Property Trust (ESS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 6.78% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.79%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 178.04
• Recently traded at 179.28 with a 50 day moving average of 170.87

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signals
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 6.13% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 68.80%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 71.50
• Recently traded at 72.33 with a 50 day moving average of 68.92

Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 12.84% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 71.45%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 60.72
• Recently traded at 62.40 with a 50 day moving average of 57.51

Equinix (EQIX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 9.82% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.14%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 192.30
• Recently traded at 196.55 with a 50 day moving average of 183.96

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 6.17% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 68.42%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.05%
• Recently traded at 36.50 with a 50 day moving average of 34.33

5 Solid Mid Caps

Today I used Barchart to screen the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index stocks to find the stocks with the best technical indicators and charts.

My list includes Timken (TKR), SL Green Realty (SLG), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL) and Highwoods Properties (HIW):

Timken (TKR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 7.95% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.82%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 61.40
• Recently traded at 63.18 with a 50 day moving average of 59.72

SL Green Realty (SLG)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 4.53% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.42%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 102.66
• Recently traded at 104.00 with a 50 day moving average of 99.99

RF Micro Devices (RFMD)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 10.32% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 62.74%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 7.84
• Recently traded at 8.54 with a 50 day moving average of 7.58

Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 8.48% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.24%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 58.26
• Recently traded at 60.04 with a 50 day moving average of 55.66

Highwoods Properties (HIW)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 7.67% in the last month
• Relative Strength index 74.81%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.27
• Recently traded at 40.45 with a 50 day moving average of 38.04

Barchart Morning Call 12/20

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, December 20th, 2013View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are also up +0.11% after a gauge of German consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to a 6-1/3 year high. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.07%, Hong Kong -0.33%, China -2.33%, Taiwan +0.01%, Australia +1.21%, Singapore +0.79%, South Korea +0.41%, India +1.79%. China's Shanghai Stock index fell to a 1-month low on signs of a cash crunch in China after the 7-day repurchase rate surged 100 bp to a 6-month high of 7.60%, even after the PBOC said it conducted short-term liquidity operations and added funds to the financial system. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG14 -0.17%) is down -0.30%. Feb gasoline (RBG14 +0.29%) is up +0.01%. Feb gold (GCG14 +0.19%) is up +0.11%. March copper (HGH14 +0.53%) is up +0.62%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.04% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.07% at a 2-week low after S&P downgraded the credit rating of the European Union. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21% at a fresh 5-year high after the BOJ said they will maintain stimulus until annual inflation is stable at 2%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.25%) are down -8.5 ticks.
Standard & Poor's cut its long-term rating on the EU to AA+ from AAA, with a stable outlook, S&P said "The downgrade reflects our view of the overall weaker creditworthiness of the EU's 28 member states."
German Jan GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 7.6, better than expectations of no change at 7.4 and the highest in 6-1/3 years.
German Nov PPI fell -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, right on expectations, as producer prices weakened further from a -0.7% y/y decline in Oct.
At the conclusion of its 2-day policy meeting, the BOJ as expected, pledged to maintain its stimulus program and expand the monetary base by an annual 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($670 billion) until inflation reaches the BOJ's 2% inflation target.
UK Dec GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -1 point to a 4-month low of -13, weaker than expectations of +1 to -11.
UK Nov public sector net borrowing was 14.8 billion pounds, more than expectations of 13.4 billion pounds and the most in 2-1/2 years.
UK Q3 GDP was revised upward to +0.8% q/q and +1.9% y/y from the originally reported +0.8% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Q3 total business investment was revised upward to +2.0% q/q and -5.3% y/y from the +1.4% q/q and -6.3% y/y originally reported.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is not expecting any revisions from the last BEA estimates for Q3 GDP of +3.6% or for Q3 personal consumption of +1.4%. Senate Majority Leader Reid on Thursday set a schedule to allow the Senate to adjourn for the year on Saturday. The Senate, according to reporting by The Hill, will vote to end debate on Janet Yellen’s confirmation at 11 AM on Friday. The Senate is then scheduled to vote on Ms. Yellen’s actual confirmation on Saturday at 6 PM. The markets will be pleased if the Senate can finalize Ms. Yellen’s confirmation before leaving for the holidays.
There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Navistar (consensus -$1.56), Walgreen (0.72), CarMax (0.48). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of the week.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

3M Company (MMM +0.45%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan.
CarMax (KMX +1.01%) reported Q3 EPS of 47 cents, below consensus of 48 cents.
Zumiez (ZUMZ -0.68%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
BlackBerry (BBRY +3.14%) slid 7% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -67 cents, a bigger loss than consensus of -45 cents.
Walgreen (WAG -0.70%) reported Q1 EPS of 79 cents, stronger than consensus of 72 cents.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its long-term local currency rating on Mexico to 'A' from 'A-' and its long-term foreign currency rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB.'
Peabody Energy (BTU +2.74%) said it sees fiscal 2013 adjusted EBITDA $60 million-$80 million lower than its prior view.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ +0.86%) will acquire Gentium (GENT -2.28%) for $57 per share.
Cintas (CTAS +0.34%) reported Q2 EPS of 70 cents, stronger than consensus of 68 cents.
Nike (NKE -0.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 59 cents, better than consensus of 58 cents.
AAR Corp. (AIR -0.56%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.95-$2.00 from $2.00-$2.05, below consensus of $2.05.
TIBCO (TIBX unch) slumped over 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents, but then cut guidance on Q1 EPS to 17 cents-18 cents, below consensus of 21 cents.
Red Hat (RHT +0.18%) surged over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, higher than consensus of 35 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS $1.46-$1.48, well ahead of consensus of $1.38.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.07%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 on Thursday gave back some of Wednesday’s sharp rally and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the Dec Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report of +0.5 to 7.0, weaker than expectations of +3.5 to 10.0, and (2) the U.S. Nov existing home sales report of -4.3% to 4.90 million, weaker than expectations of -2.0% to 5.02 million and the lowest level in 11 months. Closes: S&P 500 -0.06%, Dow Jones +0.07%, Nasdaq 100 -0.31%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.25%) this morning are down -8.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note prices on Thursday tumbled to a 3-1/4 month low on negative carry-over from the Fed’s action on Wednesday to reduce its bond buying by $10 billion a month. Expectations that the Fed will continue to taper QE3 at a $10 billion clip at each FOMC meeting in 2014 further weighed on T-note prices. T-notes shrugged off the unexpected jump in weekly U.S jobless claims to an 8-1/2 month high due to typical seasonal adjustment problems over the holidays. Closes: TYH4 -20.50, FVH4 -15.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.035 (+0.04%) at a fresh 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0010 (-0.07%) at a 2-week low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.21%) at a new 5-year high. The dollar index on Thursday rallied to a 2-week high on carry-over support from the Fed’s QE3 tapering on Wednesday. Other supportive factors included (1) the slide in stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov leading indicators, which signals the U.S. economy can sustain the economic recovery. Closes: Dollar index +0.525 (+0.66%), EUR/USD -0.00232 (-0.17%), USD/JPY -0.040 (-0.04%).
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG14 -0.17%) this morning is down -30 cents (-0.30%) and Feb gasoline (RBG14 +0.29%) is up +0.0003 (+0.01%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday rose to 1-week highs and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. economy as it raised its U.S. 2013 and 2014 GDP estimates on Wed, and (2) stronger demand after EIA data on Wed showed that total U.S. petroleum demand rose +13% in the week ended Dec 13 to 20.996 million barrels a day, a 5-1/2 year high. Closes: CLG4 +0.98 (+1.00%), RBG4 +0.0392 (+1.45%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/20/2013

US	0830 ET	Q3 GDP expected unrevised at +3.6% (q/q annualized). Q3 personal consumption expected unrevised at +1.4%. Q3 GDP price index expected unrevised at +2.0%. Q3 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.5%.
	1100 ET	Kansas City Fed Dec manufacturing index expected -1 to 6, Nov 7.
	1500 ET	Nov USDA Cattle on Feed.
GER	0200 ET	German Nov PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Oct -0.2% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Jan GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 7.4, Dec 7.4.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov public sector net borrowing expected +13.4 billion pounds, Oct +6.4 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	Revised UK Q3 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and+1.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Q3 current account balance expected -14.0 billion pounds, Q2 -13.0 billion pounds.
EUR	1000 ET	Eurozone Dec consumer confidence expected +0.4 to -15.0, Nov -15.4.
JPN	n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/20/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Navistar International Corp	NAV US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	-1.561
Walgreen Co	WAG US	7:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.717
CarMax Inc	KMX US	7:35	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.482
Walgreen Co	WAG US	8:30	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Teradyne Inc	TER US	Aft-mkt	Facebook Inc. Replaces Teradyne Inc. in S&P 500
Teradyne Inc	TER US	Aft-mkt	Teradyne Inc. Replaces Scholastic Corp. in S&P MidCap 400
Mohawk Industries Inc	MHK US	Aft-mkt	Mohawk Industries Inc. Replaces JDS Uniphase Corp. in S&P 500
Mohawk Industries Inc	MHK US	Aft-mkt	JDS Uniphase Corp. Replaces Mohawk Industries Inc. in S&P MidCap 400
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc	ODFL US	Aft-mkt	Old Dominion Freight Line Replaces Arch Coal in S&P MidCap 400
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc	ODFL US	Aft-mkt	Arch Coal Replaces Old Dominion Freight Line in S&P SmallCap 600
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	Aft-mkt	Mohawk Industries Inc. Replaces JDS Uniphase Corp. in S&P 500
JDS Uniphase Corp	JDSU US	Aft-mkt	JDS Uniphase Corp. Replaces Mohawk Industries Inc. in S&P MidCap 400
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	Aft-mkt	Alliance Data Systems Replaces Abercrombie & Fitch in S&P 500
Abercrombie & Fitch Co	ANF US	Aft-mkt	Abercrombie & Fitch Replaces Alliance Data in S&P MidCap 400
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US	Aft-mkt	Alliance Data Systems Replaces Abercrombie & Fitch in S&P 500
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US	Aft-mkt	Abercrombie & Fitch Replaces Alliance Data in S&P MidCap 400
Facebook Inc	FB US	Aft-mkt	Facebook Inc. Replaces Teradyne Inc. in S&P 500
Walt Disney Co/The	DIS US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Saving Mr. Banks""
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ US		EMA Meeting, Sirturo
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Walking With Dinosaurs""