Morning Call 12/4

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Mon Dec 4, 6:58AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.62%) this morning are up +0.62% at a new record high after the Senate on Saturday passed legislation that will cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% in 2019. Also giving U.S. equity markets a boost is the legislation in the House that will push the next funding deadline to the Friday before Christmas, which will avoid a potential partial government shutdown this Friday and give U.S. legislators time to put together a spending bill. In addition, U.S. political risks eased after ABC news suspended a reporter they said that had made a "serious error" on his report on former national security adviser Flynn, saying that Trump had not asked Flynn to contact Russia as a presidential candidate, but that Trump had asked Flynn to contact Russia when he was president-elect about issues including working together to fight ISIS. European stocks are up +1.20% as industrial companies with significant revenue exposure to the U.S. also moved higher on the passage of U.S. tax cuts. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.49%, Hong Kong +0.22%, China -0.24%, Taiwan +0.49%, Australia -0.07%, Singapore -0.32%, South Korea +1.23%, India +0.11%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.64% at a 2-week high as the rally in stocks reduces the safe-haven demand for the yen.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.24%) are down -8 ticks.

Eurozone Dec Sentix inventor confidence fell -2.9 to 31.1, weaker than expectations of -0.6 to 33.4.

Eurozone Oct PPI rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m, although Sep was revised downward to +0.5% m/m from the previously reported +0.6% m/m.

The Japan Nov consumer confidence index rose +0.4 to a 4-year high of 44.9. right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct factory orders (expected -0.4%, Sep +1.4% and +0.7% ex transportation), (2) USDA weekly grain export inspections.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Casey's General Store (consensus $1.39).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Cowen Energy & Natural Resources Conference on Mon-Tue, Mizuho Americas Global Investor Conference on Mon-Tue, Raymond James Technology Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Wells Fargo Event Information & Logistics Tech Summit on Mon-Wed, Global Mizuho Investor Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Eat, Sleep, Play Conference on Tue-Wed, Nasdaq Investor Conference on Tue-Wed, NASDAQ Conference on Tue-Wed, Capital One Securities Energy Conference on Tue-Thu, Barclays Technology Conference on Wed, Berenberg Bank European Healthcare Conference on Wed, BIOMEDevice Conference on Wed, Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Pipeline MLP and Energy Symposium on Wed-Thu, Citi Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, th Capital Utah Corporate Access Event Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Emerging Technology Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Netflix (NFLX -0.41%) was initiated with a recommendation of 'Buy' at Moness, Crespi, Hardt & Co with a 12-month target price of $250.

United Parcel Service (UPS -0.94%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

Host Hotels (HST -1.41%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target price of $22.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL -0.72%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Benchmark Company LLC.

eBay (EBAY +1.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $45.

American Homes (AMH +0.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-line' t Evercore ISI with a target price of $25.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW -1.36%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at William Blair & Co.

Globus Medical (GMED -1.03%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities with a price target of $46.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL -1.42%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $101.

Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR +5.30%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of a joint venture with Saudi Aramco.

Amgen (AMGN +0.88%) gained +0.2% in after-hours trading after its Repatha drug was approved by the FDA to prevent heart attack and stroke.

Signet Jewelers (SIG -0.57%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cited alleged violations by Signet under the Truth in Lending Acts related to in-store credit practices, promotions, and payment protection products.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.62%) this morning are up +16.50 points (+0.62%) at a new record-nearest-futures high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.43%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on political turmoil after former national security adviser Flynn entered a plea agreement with prosecutors and agreed to cooperate in the investigation against the Trump administration. Stocks were also undercut by the -0.5 point decline in the U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing index to 58.2, slightly weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 58.3. Stocks rebounded from their worst levels after Senate Republicans said they had the votes to pass their tax bill.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.24%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH8 +12.00, FVH8 +3.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday shot higher on increased safe-haven demand after an ABC news report erroneously stated that former national security adviser Flynn would testify that President Trump told him to contact Russian officials. T-notes were also boosted by dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said if the Fed stays on the current pace of rate hikes the yield curve will invert and that would be negative for the U.S. economy.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.25 (+0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0040 (-0.34%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.72 (+0.64%) at a 2-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.162 (-0.17%), EUR/USD -0.0008(-0.07%), USD/JPY -0.37 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the plea agreement by former national security adviser Flynn, which took the Mueller investigation to the highest levels of the White House. The dollar was also undercut by the fall in the 10-year T-note yield, which reduces the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Jan crude oil (CLF18 -1.03%) this morning is down -64 cents (-1.10%) and Jan gasoline (RBF18 -0.88%) is -0.0151 (-0.87%). Friday's closes: Jan WTI crude +0.96 (+1.67%), Jan gasoline +0.0116 (+0.67%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher on the weaker dollar and on positive carry-over from the action Thursday by OPEC and Russia to extend their crude production cuts until the end of 2018.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG18 -0.53%) -6.5 (-0.51%), Mar silver (SIH18 -0.29%) -0.053(-0.32%) and Mar copper (HGH18 +0.40%) +0.012 (+0.37%). Friday's closes: Feb gold +5.6 (+0.44%), Mar silver -0.086(-0.52%), Mar copper +0.0285 (+0.93%). Metals on Friday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by the slump in stocks, which boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Copper prices were supported by the -5,000 MT decline in LME copper inventories to a 17-3/4 month low, a sign of tighter copper supplies. Silver and copper prices were undercut by the bigger-than-expected decline in the U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing index, which was negative for industrial metals demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2017

		Monday, Dec 4
US	1000 ET	Oct factory orders expected -0.4%, Sep +1.4% and +0.7% ex transportation.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
		Tuesday, Dec 5
US	0830 ET	Oct trade balance expected -$47.4 billion, Sep -$43.5 billion.
	0945 ET	Revised Nov Markit services PMI expected +0.6 to 55.3, prelim-Nov -0.6 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Nov ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected -1.1 to 59.0, Oct +0.3 to 60.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2017

Name	Ticker	Time	Description	Period	Estimate
SL Green Realty Corp	SLG US	9:00	Investor Conference
Casey's General Stores Inc	CASY US		Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	1.391

MORNING CALL 5/16

MORNING CALL

Monday, May 16th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.16%) are little changed up +0.01% as a +1.95% rally in crude oil (CLM16 +2.16%) to a 6-1/2 month high underpins energy producers. Signs of increased M&A activity is another positive for stocks with Yahoo up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after people familiar with the matter said that Warren Buffett is backing a group bidding for the company's internet assets. European stocks are down -0.67% in thin trade with Germany and Switzerland closed for holiday. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.33%, Hong Kong +0.84%, China +0.84%, Taiwan +0.17%, Australia +0.56%, Singapore +0.04%, South Korea +0.09%, India +0.64%. Despite weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data on Apr industrial production and retail sales, Asian stocks closed higher after the PBOC issued a statement saying that it will create appropriate monetary and financial environment to facilitate steady economic growth.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.14%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.11%) are down -3 ticks after a Washington Post story quoted Richmond Fed President Lacker saying "at this point it looks to me as if the case for raising rates looks to be pretty strong in June as inflation is moving decidedly toward 2% and the labor markets have tightened significantly."

In a statement released on its website, the PBOC said the slowdown in new yuan loan growth last month was mainly due to an acceleration in local government debt swaps and that prudent monetary policy remains unchanged, overall credit supply and aggregate financing growth are steady, and the PBOC will create appropriate monetary and financial environment to facilitate steady economic growth.

China Apr industrial production rose +5.8% year-to-date y/y, unch from Mar and weaker than expectations of +6.1% year-to-date y/y.

China Apr retail sales rose +10.3% year-to-date y/y, unch from Mar and weaker than expectations of +10.4% year-to-date y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May Empire manufacturing index (expected -3.06 to 6.50, Apr +8.94 to 9.56), (2) May NAHB housing market index (expected +1 to 59, Apr unch at 58), (3) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari holds a town hall meeting on “Too Big to Fail” at the University of Minnesota, (4) USDA weekly grain export inspections, and (5) USDA Weekly Crop Progress.

There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Urban Outfitters (consensus $0.25), Agilent Technologies (0.39), Akorn (0.54).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Cancer Prevention Pharmaceuticals (CPP).

Equity conferences today: American Gas Association Financial Forum on Mon, Electrical Products Group Investor Conference on Mon-Wed,
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference on Tue-Wed, CBI's Life Sciences IT Governance and Cybersecurity Summit on Tue-Wed, Barclays Insurance Forum on Wed, MoffettNathanson Media and Communications Conference on Wed, BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Citi Car of the Future Symposium on Thu, ITG Global Industrials Conference on Thu, Needham Emerging Technology Conference Thu, Business Analytics Innovation Summit on Thu-Fri, Medical Affairs Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Yahoo! (YHOO -1.49%) climbed nearly 2% in pre-market trading after people familiar with the matter said that Warren Buffett is backing a group bidding for the company's internet assets.

Globalstar (GSAT +35.36%) jumped 16% in pre-market trading after the chairman of the FCC late Friday asked the agency to vote on Globalstar's proposal to offer mobile service on airwaves now reserved for satellite use.

Nokia OYJ (NOK unch) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord Genuity with a price target of $7.

Weibo (WB +2.10%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO -1.54%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI with a 12-month price target of $108.

Regions Financial Corp. (RF -1.53%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market perform' at KBW.

Infoblox (BLOX -2.99%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at DA Davidson.

Globus Medical (GMED +0.51%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR -0.29%) climbed nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Tim Warner Cable in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on Tuesday, May 17.

Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF -0.83%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it started a 25 million share secondary offering of common stock.

TerraForm Global (GLBL -1.50%) rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading after Appaloosa Management’s 13F filing showed it increased its stake in TerraForm Global.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.16%) this morning are little changed, up +0.25 of a point (+0.01%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.85%, Dow Jones -1.05%, Nasdaq -0.37%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on concern about a sooner-than-expected Fed rate hike after the very strong U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment reports. In addition, retail stocks moved lower, led by a -13% plunge in Nordstrom, after the retailer cut its full-year earnings forecast and added to evidence that the U.S. department-store industry is in a deep and probably permanent slump. Stocks were boosted by improved confidence about the U.S. economy after U.S. Apr retail sales rose +1.3% and +0.8% ex-autos, stronger than expectations of +0.8% and +0.5% ex-autos, and by the +6.8 point increase in the U.S. May University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index to an 11-month high of 95.8, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 89.5.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.11%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 +12.00, FVM6 +5.25. Jun T-notes on Friday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks. T-notes were above to shake off the strong U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.059 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0016 (+0.14%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.23 (+0.21%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.426 (+0.45%), EUR/USD -0.0068 (-0.60%), USD/JPY -0.39 (-0.36%). The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 2-1/2 week high and closed higher on increased chances for a Fed rate hike after the strong U.S. Apr retail sales and May U.S. consumer sentiment reports.

June WTI crude oil (CLM16 +2.16%) this morning is up +90 cents (+1.95%) at a 6-1/2 month high. June gasoline (RBM16 +1.44%) is up +0.0206 (+1.30%) at a 2-week high. Friday's closes: CLM6 -0.49 (-1.05%), RBM6 +0.0049 (+0.31%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 2-1/2 week high and by the ongoing U.S. crude oil supply glut with U.S. crude inventories at +33% above their 5-year average. Crude oil prices received a boost from Baker Hughes' report that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by another -10rigs to 318 in the week ended May 13, the fewest in 6-1/2 years.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/16/2016

US	0830 ET	May Empire manufacturing index expected -3.06 to 6.50, Apr +8.94 to 9.56.
	1000 ET	May NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 59, Apr unch at 58.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA Weekly Crop Progress.
	1900 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari holds a town hall meeting on Too Big to Fail at the University of Minnesota.
JPN	0200 ET	Japan Apr machine tool orders, Mar -21.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/16/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Reynolds American Inc	RAI US	4:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2016
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd	RNR US	8:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
CommScope Holding Co Inc	COMM US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2016
Liberty Interactive Corp QVC Group	QVCA US	12:15	Investor Meeting	Y 2016
PacWest Bancorp	PACW US	13:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Markel Corp	MKL US	16:30	Annual General Meeting
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	16:30	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Motorola Solutions Inc	MSI US	17:00	Annual General Meeting
Akorn Inc	AKRX US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.539
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	0.389
American Express Co	AXP US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Consolidated Edison Inc	ED US		Annual General Meeting
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Stockholm	Y 2016
Bank of America Corp	BAC US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Office Depot Inc	ODP US		Business Update Call
Citigroup Inc	C US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Robert Half International Inc	RHI US		Annual General Meeting
Urban Outfitters Inc	URBN US		Q1 2017 Earnings Release	Q1 2017	0.251
Capital One Financial Corp	COF US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Ultimate Software Group Inc/The	ULTI US		Annual General Meeting
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Discover Financial Services	DFS US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies
Synchrony Financial	SYF US		Credit-card Charge-offs and Delinquencies

MORNING CALL 1/7

MORNING CALL

Thursday, January 7th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -2.17%) are down sharply by -2.24% at a 3-month low and European stocks are down -3.10% at a 3-1/4 month low after China's stock exchanges closed less than half an hour after opening when they fell 7% and triggered a halt to trading for the second time this week. Chinese stocks tumbled as the PBOC cut its reference rate for the yuan for an eighth straight day, which sent the yuan plunging to a 4-3/4 year low against the dollar as China is attempting to spur economic growth through a weaker yuan. Freeport-McMoRan and Alcoa are both down more than 4% in pre-market trading as the price of copper (HGH16 -2.83%) dropped -3.04% to a 1-1/2 month low, and energy producers are lower as the price of crude oil (CLG16 -3.62%) plummeted -3.15% to a 12-year low. Another negative for stocks was the action by the World Bank to lower its 2016 global growth estimate to 2.9% from a 3.3% estimate in Jun. Asian stocks settled sharply lower: Japan -2.33%, Hong Kong -3.09%, China -7.04%, Taiwan-1.73%, Australia -2.20%, Singapore -2.65%, South Korea -1.14%, India -2.18%.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.39%) is down -0.47%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.69%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.86% to a 4-1/2 month low.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.21%) are up +9.5 ticks at a 2-month high on a flight-to-safety with the plunge in global equity markets.

The PBOC reported that China's foreign exchange reserves shrank by a record $108 billion in Dec, which cut its total foreign-exchange reserves to a 3-year low of $3.33 trillion as the PBOC has burnt through its reserves in an attempt to prop up the yuan.

The World Bank cut its 2016 global growth estimate to 2.9% from a 3.3% estimate in Jun, citing a weaker outlook for the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. The World Bank also cut its 2016 China growth outlook to 6.7% from a 7.0% estimate in Jun.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dec challenger job cuts (Nov -13.9% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -12,000 to 275,000, previous +20,000 to 287,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 2.200 million, previous +3,000 to 2.198 million), (3) Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker's speech on the 2016 economic outlook at an event hosted by the Great Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, (4) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon.

There are 3 of the Russell 3000 companies that report earnings today: Walgreens Boots Alliance (consensus $0.96), Constellation Brands (1.30), Bed Bath & Beyond (1.09).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Citi Global Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX -8.05%) and Alcoa (AA -7.12%) are both down more than 4% in pre-market trading as the price of copper dropped -3.04% to a 1-1/2 month low.

Capital One Financial (COF -1.31%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -1.53%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.03, better than consensus of 96 cents.

Agilent Technologies (A +0.44%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Cowen with a price target of $46.

Macy's (M -2.19%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it initially sold-off 5% when it lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to $2.18-$2.23 from a previous estimate of $2.54-$2.64, and then said it will reduce costs by $400 million by closing 36 stores and cutting up to 4,800 jobs in early 2016.

NetApp (NTAP -2.80%) reported that CFO Nick Noviello is leaving the firm to pursue another opportunity and named VP of corporate finance, Jeffrey Bergmann, as interim CFO.

Paycom Software (PAYC +0.34%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Robert Baird with a 12-month price target of $48.

Resource Connection (RECN -3.45%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 23 cents, below consensus of 24 cents.

Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.50%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q4 EPS to 45 cents-47 cents from a previous estimate of 40 cents-46 cents, above consensus of 43 cents.

Mistras Group (MG -1.74%) surged over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 39 cents, well above consensus of 26 cents.

Globus Medical (GMED +1.92%) slipped over 2% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2016 sales of $583 million, below consensus of $590.4 million.

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO +5.56%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after Lamar Advertising said it was near an agreement to acquire billboard assets valued at about $450 million from CCO.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -2.17%) this morning are down sharply by -44.50 points (-2.24%) to a 3-month low. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.31%, Dow Jones -1.47%, Nasdaq -0.90%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday dropped to a 3-month low and closed lower on the PBOC's cut in its daily reference rate for the yuan for the seventh day in a row, which stoked Chinese economic concerns that undercut global stocks and pushed the yuan down to a 4-3/4 year low against the dollar. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -0.6 point decline in the Dec ISM U.S. non-manufacturing index to 55.3, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 56.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 20 months. On the positive side, the Dec ADP employment change rose +257,000, stronger than expectations of +198,000 and the biggest increase in a year.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.21%) this morning are up +9.5 ticks to a 2-month high. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 +19.50, FVH6 +12.25. Mar T-notes on Wednesday climbed to a 3-week high and settled higher on increased safe-haven demand with the plunge in global equity markets and on the slide in energy prices, which undercut inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.39%) this morning is down -0.471 (-0.47%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) up +0.0074 (+0.69%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-1.02 (-0.86%) to a 4-1/2 month low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.223 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0033 (+0.31%), USD/JPY -0.59 (-0.50%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on (1) the fall in USD/JPY to a 2-1/2 month low after the plunge in global equity markets boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) speculation that this week's sell-off in global equity markets may prompt the Fed to delay the next interest rate increase.

Feb crude oil (CLG16 -3.62%) this morning is down -$1.07 a barrel (-3.15%) to a 12-year low and Feb gasoline (RBG16 -1.39%) is down -0.0118(-1.02%) to a fresh 6-3/4 year low. Wednesday's closes: CLG6 -1.91 (-5.31%), RBG6 -0.0932 (-7.42%). Feb crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply lower as Feb crude and Feb gasoline posted 6-3/4 year nearest-futures lows. Crude oil prices were hurt by the +917,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing to a record high 63.91 million bbl and by the +10.58 million bbl surge in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 9-1/2 month high. On the positive side, EIA crude supplies unexpectedly fell -5.09 million bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/07/2016

US	0730 ET	Dec challenger job cuts, Nov -13.9% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -12,000 to 275,000, previous +20,000 to 287,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.200 million, previous +3,000 to 2.198 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0845 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the 2016 economic outlook at an event hosted by the Great Raleigh Chamber of Commerce.
	1100 ET	Treasury announce amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jan 12-14.
	1415 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon.
GER	0200 ET	German Nov factory orders expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Oct +1.8% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Nov retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +3.7% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
	0300 ET	German Dec Markit construction PMI, Nov 52.5.
UK	0400 ET	UK Dec new car registrations, Nov +3.8% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Dec economic confidence expected -0.1 to 106.0, Nov 106.1. Dec business climate indicator expected +0.03 to 0.39, Nov 0.36.
	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Dec consumer confidence, preliminary +0.2 to 5.7.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Nov retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Nov unemployment rate expected unch at 10.7%.
JPN	2030 ET	Japan Nov labor cash earnings expected +0.7% y/y, Oct +0.7% y/y. Nov real cash earnings, Oct +0.4% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/07/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc	WBA US	7:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.957
Signet Jewelers Ltd	SIG US	7:00	December 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	December 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
Constellation Brands Inc	STZ US	7:30	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	1.297
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc	WBA US	8:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Signet Jewelers Ltd	SIG US	8:30	December 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
Constellation Brands Inc	STZ US	10:30	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	16:15	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	1.091
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	17:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		December 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
L Brands Inc	LB US		December 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Mylan NV	MYL US		Special Meeting
Ameren Corp	AEE US		Investor Meeting	Y 2016
Compass Minerals International Inc	CMP US		Q4 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	Q4 2015