Tuesday, February 24th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 unch) this morning are up +0.02% ahead of testimony from Fed Chair Yellen to U.S. lawmakers and European stocks are up +0.23% at a 6-1/2 year high on optimism Eurozone finance ministers will agree to Greece's list of debt-reduction policies. The markets will be watching for clues on the timing of a Fed interest rate hike when Fed Chair Yellen delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony later today before the Senate Banking Committee. Greece's ASE Stock Index soared over 7% to a 2-1/2 month high and the yield on Greece's 10-year bond fell to a 4-week low of 8.85% after a European Union source said that Greece's creditors; the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF were all satisfied with the reforms submitted by the Greek government in its bid for a bailout extension. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.74%, Hong Kong -0.35%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +1.05%, Australia +0.32%, Singapore +0.48%, South Korea +0.19%, India +0.10%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index posted a 14-3/4 year high, led by strength in exporters, after the yen fell to a 1-week low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.44%) is up +0.61% and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.33%) is up +0.39%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.14%) is down -0.19%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.25%) is up +0.25%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.61% at a 1-week high. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.10%) are down -4.5 ticks.Eurozone Jan CPI fell -1.6% m/m, right on expectations and the biggest monthly decline since the euro currency was introduced in 1999. The Jan CPI was left unrevised at -0.6% y/y and the Jan core CPI was also left unrevised at +0.6% y/y. The German Q4 GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa). Japan Jan PPI services rose +3.4% y/y, less than expectations of +3.6% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 6 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Fed Chair Yellen will present her semi-annual testimony today before the Senate Banking Committee and tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. Today’s Dec S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show another solid increase of +0.60% m/m, which would be just slightly weaker than the Nov report of +0.74%. Today’s Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a -3.4 point decline to 99.5, giving back part of the +9.8 point surge to the 7-1/2 year high of 102.9 seen in January.There are 13 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Macy's (consensus $2.40), HP (0.91), Comcast (0.78), Home Depot (0.89), First Solar (0.77). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: JPMorgan High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, Cantor Fitzgerald 2nd Annual Internet and Technology Conference on Tue, Susquehanna Semi, Storage & Tech Summit on Tue, Credit Suisse Energy Summit on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Robert W. Baird Business Solutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Cyber Security Forum on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, Auerbach Grayson & Morgan Stanley's Inaugural Frontier Markets Conference on Thu, Gabelli & Company Pump, Valve & Water Systems Symposium on Thu, Gabelli & Company Inaugural Waste & Environmental Services Symposium on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Home Depot (HD +0.04%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.00, stronger than consensus of 89 cents.Comcast (CMCSA -0.50%) reported Q4 EPS of 77 cents, below consensus of 78 cents. Valspar (VAL -0.14%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 85 cents, more than consensus of 76 cents. Werner (WERN +0.25%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank. Worthington (WOR -1.67%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse. Office Depot (ODP -0.53%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, higher than consensus of 4 cents. First Solar (FSLR +1.26%) rose 9% and SunPower (SPWR -0.82%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after both companies said they are in talks to form a joint venture called YieldCo. Alliant Energy (LNT +0.74%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 54 cents, less than consensus of 55 cents. Quad/Graphics (QUAD -1.46%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 96 cents, better than consensus of 94 cents. American Tower (AMT +0.83%) reported Q4 EPS of 42 cents, below consensus of 51 cents, and then lowered guidance on fuscal 2015 revenue to $4.25 billion-$4.33 billion, well below consensus of $4.62 billion. The Soros Fund reported a 9.95% passive stake in Oclaro (OCLR +1.99%) . Kaman (KAMN -1.31%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 76 cents, more than consensus of 70 cents. Dillard's (DDS +0.62%) reported Q4 EPS of $3.17, less than consensus of $3.18. Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +2.48%) gained almost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 26 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $404.43 million was higher than consensus of $399.63 million. Express Scripts (ESRX +0.74%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 1.39, better than consensus of $1.38.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 unch) this morning are .up +0.50 of a point (+0.02%) The S&P 500 index on Monday closed slightly lower: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.13%, Nasdaq +0.14%. Bearish factors included (1) the -4.9% decline in U.S. Jan existing home sales to 4.82 million, weaker than expectations of -1.8% to 4.95 million and the lowest level in 9 months, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices fell to a 2-week low. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after health-care stocks rallied on increased M&A activity when Valeant Pharmaceuticals said it would purchase Salix Pharmaceuticals for $10.1 billion.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.10%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +19.50, FVH5 +9.75. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Jan existing home sales to the lowest level in 9 months, and (2) speculation that Fed Chair Yellen will keep a dovish tilt to her comments when she delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee Congress on Tuesday. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.173 (+0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.72 (+0.61%) at a 1-week high. The dollar index on Monday posted a 1-week high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.316 (+0.34%), EUR/USD -0.00454 (-0.40%), USD/JPY -0.191 (-0.16%). Bullish factors included (1) short covering in the dollar ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday, and (2) the weaker-than-expected increase in the German Feb IFO business climate, which was negative for EUR/USD. Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.44%) this morning is up +30 cents (+0.61%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +0.33%) is up +0.0072 (+0.39%). Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed with Apr crude at a 2-week low: CLJ5 -1.36 (-2.68%), RBJ5 +0.0018 (+0.10%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA data to show crude stockpiles increased by +3.75 million bbl. Gasoline closed higher due to the ongoing strike by the United Steelworkers union that represents more than 30,000 oil refinery workers and 13% of U.S. refining output, which will reduce gasoline and distillate production.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/24/2015
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/24/2015
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Showing posts with label PLL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PLL. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/14
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/10
Wednesday, December 10th, 2014View Older Reports
Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.
You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.10%) this morning are down -0.06% and European stocks are up +0.56% after Die Zeit reported that ECB President Draghi called German Finance Minister Schaeuble after the Dec 4 ECB meeting in an attempt to garner support in Germany for a government-bond purchase plan to be decided as soon as next month. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -2.25%, Hong Kong +0.16%, China +3.69%, Taiwan -1.06%, Australia -0.45%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea -1.52%, India +0.12%. Chinese stocks rallied nearly 4% after a slowdown in inflation bolstered the case for more monetary easing after China Nov CPI rose less than expected at the slowest pace in 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -1.91%) is down -1.93% after OPEC cut its 2015 global demand forecast for its crude to a 12-year low. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.09%) is down -2.16% at a fresh 5-year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.34%) is down -0.33%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.92%) is down -0.70%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 unch) are unch.China Nov CPI rose +1.4% y/y, less than expectations of +1.6% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5 years. China Nov PPI fell -2.7% y/y, a larger decline than expectations of -2.4% y/y and the steepest drop in 1-1/2 years.
The Japan Nov consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -1.2 to 37.7, weaker than expectations of +0.6 to 39.5 and the lowest in 7 months.
The Japan Q4 BSI large all-industry business conditions fell -6.1 to 5.0, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.1 to 10.0. Q4 BSI large manufacturing business conditions fell -4.6 to 8.1.
Japan Nov PPI fell -0.2% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, Nov PPI rose +2.7% y/y, more than expectations of +2.6% y/y but still the slowest pace of increase in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Nov monthly Treasury budget statement is expected to show a deficit of -$65.0 billion, which would be substantially better than the -$135.2 billion deficit seen a year ago in Nov 2013. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes in a reopening of last month’s 2-1/4% 10-year note of Nov 2024. There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Toll Brothers (consensus $0.73), Costco (1.09).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Capital Global Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Tue-Wed, Barclays Real Estate Conference on Wed, BMO Technology Conference on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Property REIT Conference on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Research, Economics & Strategy Energy Symposium on Wed, Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia Ltd Americas Innovation Summit on Wed, Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Wed-Thu, Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Animal & Dental Health Summit on Thu, and Desjardins Securities Materials Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.14%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna.Disney (DIS -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Topeka due to valuation.
Genesco (GCO +1.16%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
British Petroleum (BP -0.90%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Costco Wholesale (COST +0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.12, higher than consensus of $1.09.
Yum! Brands (YUM -1.62%) fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading after the company said 2014 EPS, excluding some items, wil rise by a mid-single-figit percentage, well below a previous forecast of 20% growth.
Krispy Kreme (KKD +0.50%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, less than consensus of 19 cents.
Korn/Ferry (KFY +1.71%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 51 cents, better than consensus of 45 ccents.
Lazard reported a 5.072% passive stake in Mobile TeleSystems (MBT -0.31%) .
CHC Group (HELI +7.35%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -31 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -38 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.10%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower, although stocks recovered from their worst levels after energy producers and technology companies rose: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq +0.38%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in world equity markets after China tightened collateral rules for short-term loans and sparked a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks, and (2) renewed Greek debt concerns after the Greek government brought forward the process for choosing a new President this month, a move that risks triggering parliamentary elections that could put a party in power that opposes the terms of Greece’s bailout by the EU.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 unch) this morning are unch. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher: TYH5 +12.00, FVH5 +6.75. Bullish factors included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year break-even rate fell to a new low, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 3-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.022 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is unch. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.39 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.351 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.00571 (+0.46%), USD/JPY -0.99 (-0.82%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low after a slide in global equity markets boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rallied after German Nov exports were a bit stronger than expected.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -1.91%) this morning is down -$1.23 a barrel (-1.93%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.09%) is down -0.0372 (-2.16%) at a 5-year low. Jan crude Tuesday rebounded from a 5-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline prices recovered from a 5-year low and closed higher. Closes: CLF5 +0.77 (+1.22%), RBF5 +0.017 (+1.00%). Supportive factors included (1) short covering in most commodities after the dollar index fell, and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -2.7 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/10/2014
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.3% with purchase sub-index +2.5% and refi sub-index -13.4%. |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1200 ET | USDA Dec WASDE crop production. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes. | |
| 1400 ET | Nov monthly budget statement expected -$65.0 billion, Nov-2013 -$135.2 billion. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Nov consumer confidence index expected +0.6 to 39.5, Oct 38.9. |
| 1850 ET | Japan Oct tertiary industry index expected -0.2% m/m, Sep +1.0% m/m. | |
| 1850 ET | Japan Oct machine orders expected -1.7% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Sep +2.9% m/m and +7.3% y/y. | |
| UK | 1901 ET | UK Nov RICS house price balance expected 15%, Oct 20%. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/10/2014
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toll Brothers Inc | TOL US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.727 |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 1.091 |
| BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc | BMRN US | 8:00 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| Diebold Inc | DBD US | 9:00 | Investment Community Conference | Y 2014 | |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | 9:30 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| McDonald's Corp | MCD US | 11:00 | Investor Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | 11:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 13:00 | Analyst Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| Pall Corp | PLL US | 13:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Bunge Ltd | BG US | 13:00 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| Toll Brothers Inc | TOL US | 14:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Altera Corp | ALTR US | 16:45 | Q4 2015 Guidance Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Kennametal Inc | KMT US | November 2014 Monthly Orders Release | |||
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release | 2014 | ||
| Charles Schwab Corp/The | SCHW US | November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Activity Report | 2014 |
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/25
BARCHART MORNING CALL
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that "given the weak Eurozone economy and risk of deflation, the ECB should expand its monetary support, including through asset purchases," or "quantitative easing." The OECD kept its 2014 Eurozone GDP estimate at +0.8% and its 2015 estimate at +1.1%, and kept its 2014 Eurozone inflation forecast at +0.5% and 2015 estimate at +0.6%.
German Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.1% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa), although Q3 exports were revised upward to +1.9% q/q from +0.9% q/q, the most in 3-1/2 years, and Q3 imports were revised higher to +1.7% q/q from +1.6% q/q.
Japan Oct PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 23-3/4 years.
There are 13 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: HP (consensus $1.06), Tiffany ($0.77), DSW (0.52), Campbell Soup (0.72), Eaton Vance (0.64), Pall Corp (0.80), Hormel Foods (0.64). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of this week.
Campbell Soup (CPB -0.54%) reported Q1 EPS of 74 cents, stronger than consensus of 72 cents.
Pall Corp. (PLL -0.40%) reported Q1 EPS of 89 cents, higher than consensus of 80 cents.
Netflix (NFLX -1.06%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Stifel.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF +1.06%) reported Q3 EPS of 76 cents, weaker than consensus of 77 cents.
Hormel Foods (HRL -0.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, below consensus of 64 cents.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Honda (HMC -0.19%) said that over an an 11-year period beginning in 2003, it did not report 1,729 death and injury incidents to U.S. regulators.
Post Holdings (POST +0.87%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, nearly double consensus of 7 cents.
Dycom (DY +0.92%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 59 cents, well above consensus of 50 cents.
Ceridian reported an 8.3% stake in FleetCor (FLT +0.04%) .
Aegean Marine (ANW -0.43%) reported Q3 EPS of 20 cents, less than consensus of 21 cents.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +0.75%) announced that it will revise its financial statements for fiscal years 2012, 2013 and 2014 and Q1 of fiscal 2015 for an accounting error and pay the I.R.S. $30.4 million in taxes due as well as $1.1 million in interest to resolve this matter.
Brocade (BRCD +1.65%) reported Q4 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 23 cents.
Nuance (NUAN +0.53%) rose over 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 27 cents.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday erased early losses and closed higher: TYZ4 +3.00, FVZ4 +2.00. The main bullish factor Monday was exceptional demand for the Treasury’s $28 billion auction of 2-year T-notes that produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.71, higher than the 12-auction average of 3.41. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $105 billion of T-notes during this holiday-shortened week, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as global stock markets rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0007 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a 4-1/3 year high and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.159 (-0.18%), EUR/USD +0.00528 (+0.43%), USD/JPY +0.44 (+0.37%). Negative factors included (1) a rebound in EUR/USD which recovered from a 2-week low after the German Nov IFO business climate index unexpectedly rose for the first time in 7 months, and (2) a rally in global equity markets, which curbed the safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 +0.59%) this morning is up +27 cents (+0.36%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 +0.93%) is up +0.0156 (+0.77%). Jan crude and Dec gasoline on Monday closed lower. Closes: CLF5 -0.73 (-0.95%), RBF5 -0.0258 (-1.26%). Bearish factors included (1) speculation that OPEC will fail to agree on production cuts at Thursday’s cartel meeting in Vienna, and (2) a forecasted snowstorm for the U.S. northeast later this week that may reduce travel and fuel demand. Losses were muted due to a weak dollar and a rally in stocks.
Tuesday, November 25th, 2014View Older Reports
Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.
You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.08%) this morning are up +0.08% and European stocks are up +0.79% at a 2-month high. European bank stocks gained and government bond yields dropped to record lows on the prospects for further easing by the ECB after the OECD said the ECB should expand its monetary support due to the weak Eurozone economy and risk of deflation. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.29%, Hong Kong -0.21%, China +1.37%, Taiwan -0.07%, Australia -0.50%, Singapore +0.13%, South Korea -0.25%, India -0.57%. Chinese stocks continue to find support from Friday's surprise interest rate cut by the PBOC as the Shanghai Stock Index posted a new 3-year high. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Jan crude oil (CLF15 +0.59%) is up +0.36% on speculation that OPEC may try to cut crude output at Thursday's cartel meeting after Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said that action must be taken to boost prices because current levels are "unacceptable." Jan gasoline (RBF15 +0.93%) is up +0.77%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.30%) is up +0.34%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.22%) is up +0.15%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +3.5 ticks.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that "given the weak Eurozone economy and risk of deflation, the ECB should expand its monetary support, including through asset purchases," or "quantitative easing." The OECD kept its 2014 Eurozone GDP estimate at +0.8% and its 2015 estimate at +1.1%, and kept its 2014 Eurozone inflation forecast at +0.5% and 2015 estimate at +0.6%.
German Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.1% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa), although Q3 exports were revised upward to +1.9% q/q from +0.9% q/q, the most in 3-1/2 years, and Q3 imports were revised higher to +1.7% q/q from +1.6% q/q.
Japan Oct PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 23-3/4 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Q3 GDP report is expected to be revised lower to +3.3% (q/q annualized) from last estimate of +3.5%. The market is expecting U.S. home prices to show a moderate increase in September, thus giving a boost to household wealth and consumer confidence. The market consensus is for today’s Sep FHFA house price index to show an increase of +0.4% m/m and for the CaseShiller Composite 20 house price index to show an increase of +0.25% m/m. Today’s Nov U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +1.5 point increase to 96.0, adding to the +5.5 point increase to a new 7-year high of 94.5 seen in October. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes and $13 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes.There are 13 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: HP (consensus $1.06), Tiffany ($0.77), DSW (0.52), Campbell Soup (0.72), Eaton Vance (0.64), Pall Corp (0.80), Hormel Foods (0.64). There are no equity conferences during the remainder of this week.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Valspar (VAL -0.11%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.38, well above consensus of $1.15.Campbell Soup (CPB -0.54%) reported Q1 EPS of 74 cents, stronger than consensus of 72 cents.
Pall Corp. (PLL -0.40%) reported Q1 EPS of 89 cents, higher than consensus of 80 cents.
Netflix (NFLX -1.06%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Stifel.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF +1.06%) reported Q3 EPS of 76 cents, weaker than consensus of 77 cents.
Hormel Foods (HRL -0.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, below consensus of 64 cents.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Honda (HMC -0.19%) said that over an an 11-year period beginning in 2003, it did not report 1,729 death and injury incidents to U.S. regulators.
Post Holdings (POST +0.87%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, nearly double consensus of 7 cents.
Dycom (DY +0.92%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 59 cents, well above consensus of 50 cents.
Ceridian reported an 8.3% stake in FleetCor (FLT +0.04%) .
Aegean Marine (ANW -0.43%) reported Q3 EPS of 20 cents, less than consensus of 21 cents.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +0.75%) announced that it will revise its financial statements for fiscal years 2012, 2013 and 2014 and Q1 of fiscal 2015 for an accounting error and pay the I.R.S. $30.4 million in taxes due as well as $1.1 million in interest to resolve this matter.
Brocade (BRCD +1.65%) reported Q4 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 23 cents.
Nuance (NUAN +0.53%) rose over 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 27 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.08%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.29%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq +0.78%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the German Nov IFO business climate index unexpectedly rose +1.5 to 104.7, the first increase in the last 7 months, and (2) a rally in retailers and consumer discretionary stocks on optimism for a robust holiday-shopping season after the national Retail Federation predicted that U.S. retail sales will rise +4.1% y/y this holiday season, stronger than the +2.9% average of the past 10 years.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday erased early losses and closed higher: TYZ4 +3.00, FVZ4 +2.00. The main bullish factor Monday was exceptional demand for the Treasury’s $28 billion auction of 2-year T-notes that produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.71, higher than the 12-auction average of 3.41. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $105 billion of T-notes during this holiday-shortened week, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as global stock markets rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0007 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24 (-0.20%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a 4-1/3 year high and closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.159 (-0.18%), EUR/USD +0.00528 (+0.43%), USD/JPY +0.44 (+0.37%). Negative factors included (1) a rebound in EUR/USD which recovered from a 2-week low after the German Nov IFO business climate index unexpectedly rose for the first time in 7 months, and (2) a rally in global equity markets, which curbed the safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 +0.59%) this morning is up +27 cents (+0.36%) and Jan gasoline (RBF15 +0.93%) is up +0.0156 (+0.77%). Jan crude and Dec gasoline on Monday closed lower. Closes: CLF5 -0.73 (-0.95%), RBF5 -0.0258 (-1.26%). Bearish factors included (1) speculation that OPEC will fail to agree on production cuts at Thursday’s cartel meeting in Vienna, and (2) a forecasted snowstorm for the U.S. northeast later this week that may reduce travel and fuel demand. Losses were muted due to a weak dollar and a rally in stocks.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/25/2014
| US | 0830 ET | Q3 GDP expected revised to +3.3% (q/q annualized) from last +3.5%. Q3 personal consumption expected +1.9% vs +1.8%. Q3 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.3%. Q3 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.4%. |
| 0900 ET | Sep FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, Aug +0.5% m/m. Q3 house price purchase index, Q2 +0.81%. | |
| 0900 ET | Sep S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.30% m/m and +4.60% y/y, Aug -0.15% m/m and +5.57% y/y. | |
| 1000 ET | Nov U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +1.5 to 96.0, Oct +5.5 to 94.5. | |
| 1000 ET | Nov Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -4 to 16, Oct +6 to 20. | |
| 1130 ET | Treasury auctions $13 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | Revised German Q3 GDP, previous +0.1% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa). |
| EUR | 0500 ET | OECD economic outlook for the Eurozone. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/25/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormel Foods Corp | HRL US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.636 |
| Tech Data Corp | TECD US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.018 |
| Valspar Corp/The | VAL US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.149 |
| Pall Corp | PLL US | 7:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.804 |
| Signet Jewelers Ltd | SIG US | 7:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.177 |
| Jacobs Engineering Group Inc | JEC US | 8:00 | Q4 2015 Guidance Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Chico's FAS Inc | CHS US | 8:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.172 |
| Campbell Soup Co | CPB US | 8:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Tiffany & Co | TIF US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Pall Corp | PLL US | 8:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Signet Jewelers Ltd | SIG US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Chico's FAS Inc | CHS US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| DSW Inc | DSW US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Eaton Vance Corp | EV US | 9:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.643 |
| Tech Data Corp | TECD US | 9:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Hormel Foods Corp | HRL US | 9:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Eaton Vance Corp | EV US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Valspar Corp/The | VAL US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Copart Inc | CPRT US | 11:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Veeva Systems Inc | VEEV US | 16:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Analog Devices Inc | ADI US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.68 |
| Hewlett-Packard Co | HPQ US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.056 |
| Veeva Systems Inc | VEEV US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.08 |
| Campbell Soup Co | CPB US | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.721 | |
| Tiffany & Co | TIF US | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.772 | |
| DSW Inc | DSW US | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.521 |
Thursday, August 28, 2014
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.24%) this morning are down -0.36% and European stocks are down -1,14% as the crisis in Ukraine escalates after the Ukrainian government said that a counteroffensive being waged by separatists in the eastern part of the country amounts to a Russian invasion. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk issued a plea for international help in defending against Russia's army and that sanctions by the U.S. and the EU aren't working. Russia's Micex Stock Index tumbled nearly 2% and the ruble fell to a 6-month low against the dollar after the U.S. State Department said that "these incursions indicate a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely underway in Donetsk and Luhansk." A larger-than-expected decline in Eurozone Aug economic confidence to an 8-month low is another negative for European stocks. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.48%, Hong Kong -0.71%, China -0.70%, Taiwan -0.08%, Australia -0.47%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea +0.12%, India +0.29%. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 +0.04%) is down -0.12%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.23%) is up +0.07%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.84%) is up +0.91% at a 1-week high as escalation of the Ukraine crisis fuels safe-haven buying of gold. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.41%) is down -0.61%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.14%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.16%) are up +9 ticks at a 1-week high on carry-over support from a rally in European government bond markets as the 10-year German bund yield fell to a record low 0.866%.Eurozone Aug economic confidence slipped -1.5 to 100.6, a larger decline than expectations of -0.7 to 101.5 and the weakest in 8 months. The Aug business climate indicator fell -0.1 to 0.16, a smaller drop than expectations of -0.07 to 0.10, but still the lowest in 10 months.
Eurozone Jul M3 money supply rose +1.8% y/y and +1.5% 3-mo avg, higher than expectations of +1.5% y/y and +1.3% 3-mo avg.
German Aug unemployment unexpectedly rose +2,000, more than expectations of a -5,000 decline. The Aug unemployment rate remained unch at 6.7%, right on expectations.
UK Aug CBI reported sales rose +16 to 37, a larger increase than expectations of +6 to 27 and matched Feb's level as the highest in 2 years.
China Jul industrial profits slowed to an increase of +13.5% y/y from the +17.9% y/y pace in Jun.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small +2,000 increase to 300,000 following last week’s decline of -14,000 to 298,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +10,000 to 2.510 million after last week’s decline of -49,000 to 2.500 million. Today’s Q2 GDP report is expected to be revised slightly lower to +3.9% from the last estimate of +4.0%. Today’s July pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m, reversing about one-half of the -1.1% decline seen in June. The Treasury today will wrap up this week’s $106 billion T-note package by selling $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.There are 8 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Abercrombie (consensus $0.11), Coty (0.05), Pall Corp (1.06), Signet Jewelers (0.98), Dollar General (0.83), Splunk (-0.02), Avago Technologies (1.05), Veeva Systems (0.07). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: ONS 2014 Conference on Mon-Thu, and MIT Sloan Latin America-China Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dollar General (DG +0.28%) reported Q2 EPS of 83 cents, right on consensus, although Q2 revenue of $4.72 billion was below consensus of $4.77 billion.Pall Corp. (PLL -0.48%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.14, better than consensus of $1.06.
Signet Jewelers (SIG -0.36%) reported Q2 organic EPS of $1.00, better than consensus of 98 cents.
British Petroleum (BP +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Brown Forman (BF) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Visa (V +0.18%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Genuine Parts (GPC -0.02%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at SunTrust.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +1.01%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust with a price target of $181 and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.23%) was also initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust with a price target of $193.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM +0.05%) slid 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 53 cents, right on consensus, although Q2 revenue of $1.04 billion was below consensus of $1.05 billion. The company then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $3.07-$3.17, below consensus of $3.20.
Guess (GES -0.74%) fell 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 26 cents, weaker than consensus of 29 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.05-$1.20, well below consensus of $1.46.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.24%) this morning are down -7.25 points (-0.36%). The S&P 500 index Dow on Wednesday closed little changed: S&P 500 unch, Dow Jones +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.04%. Stocks found support on (1) optimism about the U.S. economic outlook that lifted the S&P 500 to a record high Tuesday, and (2) an easing of tensions in Ukraine after Russian President Putin met Ukraine President Poroshenko in Belarus and said that “Russia, for its part, will do everything for this peace process.” Valuation concerns limited gains in equities with stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 18 times reported earnings, the highest in 4 years.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.16%) this morning are up +9 ticks at a 1-week high. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European government bonds after 10-year bond yields in Germany, France, Italy, Finland and Spain all dropped to record lows, and (2) weakness in stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes. Closes: TYU4 +6.50, FVU4 +3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.084 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0018 (-0.14%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.25 (-0.24%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell back from an 11-1/2 month high and closed lower. EUR/USD rebounded from a 11-1/2 month low and closed higher after (1) a Reuters report that unidentified ECB sources said the ECB is unlikely to add stimulus at next week’s meeting unless Eurozone August inflation data raises the risk of deflation, and (2) German Finance Minister Schaeuble’s comment that ECB President Draghi’s comments advocating support for Eurozone fiscal policy were “over-interpreted.” Closes: Dollar index -0.222 (-0.27%), EUR/USD +0.00259 (+0.20%), USD/JPY -0.186 (-0.18%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 +0.04%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.12%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.23%) is up +0.0019 (+0.07%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLV4 +0.02 (+0.02%), RBV4 -0.0154 (-0.59%). Bearish factors included (1) the +508,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, the fourth consecutive increase, and (2) the +0.6% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Aug 22 to a 27-3/4 year high of 8.631 million bpd. Supportive factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) the -2.07 million bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories to a 7-month low of 360.5 million bbl, a bigger draw than expectations of -950,000 bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/28/2014
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +2,000 to 300,000, previous -14,000 to 298,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +10,000 to 2.510 million, previous -49,000 to 2.500 million. |
| 0830 ET | Q2 GDP revision expected +3.9% vs prelim +4.0%. Q2 GDP personal consumption expected revised to +2.4% from +2.5%. Q2 GDP Price index expected unrevised at +2.0%. Q2 core PCE expected unrevised at +2.0%. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1000 ET | Jul pending home sales expected +0.5% m/m and -3.9% y/y, Jun -1.1% m/m and -4.5% y/y. | |
| 1100 ET | Aug Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected -2 to 7, Jul +3 to 9. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | German Aug unemployment change expected -5,000, Jul -12,000. Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%, Jul 6.7%. |
| 0800 ET | German Aug CPI (EU harmonized) expected unch m/m and +0.8% y/y, Jul +0.3% m/m and +0.8% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Eurozone Jul M3 money supply expected +1.5% y/y and +1.3% 3-m avg, Jun +1.5% y/y and +1.1% 3-mo avg. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Aug economic confidence expected -0.7 to 101.5, Jul 102.2. Aug business climate indicator expected -0.07 to 0.10, Jul 0.17. | |
| 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Aug consumer confidence, previous -1.6 to -10.0. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Aug Lloyds business barometer, Jul 52. |
| 0600 ET | UK Aug CBI reported sales expected +6 to 27, Jul 21. | |
| 1901 ET | UK Aug Hometrack weighted overall average housing prices, Jul +0.1% m/m and +5.8% y/y. | |
| 1905 ET | UK Aug GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -1, Jul -2. | |
| JPN | 1930 ET | Japan Jul jobless rate expected unch at 3.7%. Jul job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.10. |
| 1930 ET | Japan Jul overall household spending expected -2.9% y/y, Jun -3.0% y/y. | |
| 1930 ET | Japan Jul national CPI expected +3.4% y/y, Jun +3.6% y/y. Jul national CPI ex-fresh food expected +3.3% y/y, Jun +3.3% y/y. Jul national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.3% y/y, Jun +2.3% y/y. | |
| 1930 ET | Japan Aug Tokyo CPI expected +2.7% y/y, Jul +2.8% y/y. Aug Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.7% y/y, Jul +2.8% y/y. Aug Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +2.1% y/y, Jul +2.1% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Jul retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Jun +0.5% m/m and -0.6% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Jul industrial production expected +1.0% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Jun -3.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/28/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 0:30 | Investor Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| Coty Inc | COTY US | 6:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.051 |
| Pall Corp | PLL US | 7:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.058 |
| Signet Jewelers Ltd | SIG US | 7:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.981 |
| Dollar General Corp | DG US | 7:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.831 |
| Abercrombie & Fitch Co | ANF US | 7:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.113 |
| Pall Corp | PLL US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Signet Jewelers Ltd | SIG US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Abercrombie & Fitch Co | ANF US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Coty Inc | COTY US | 9:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Greif Inc | GEF US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Dollar General Corp | DG US | 10:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| AMERCO | UHAL US | 12:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| AMERCO | UHAL US | 14:00 | Analyst and Investor meeting | Y 2014 | |
| Splunk Inc | SPLK US | 16:02 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | -0.024 |
| Avago Technologies Ltd | AVGO US | 16:05 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.05 |
| Splunk Inc | SPLK US | 16:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Veeva Systems Inc | VEEV US | 16:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Avago Technologies Ltd | AVGO US | 17:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Veeva Systems Inc | VEEV US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.07 |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting - Zurich | Y 2014 | ||
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investors Meeting - Geneva | Y 2014 |
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