BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/1

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, December 1st, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -0.41% and European stocks are down -0.67% on global growth concerns after manufacturing data from China and the Eurozone disappointed. A slump in crude oil prices to a 4-1/3 year low has also undercut energy producers and oil service operators with Exxon Mobile and Schlumberger both down -1.3% in pre-market trading. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.75%, Hong Kong -2.58%, China +0.39%, Taiwan -0.76%, Australia -1.98%, Singapore -1.34%, South Korea -0.83%, India -0.47%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index surged to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 7-1/3 year low against the dollar. USD/JPY gave up its advance, however, after Moody's Investors Service cut Japan's credit rating after the Asian equity markets closed. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) is down -0.95% at a 4-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from OPEC's inaction Thursday to cut oil production. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -1.03% at a 4-1/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.19%) is down -0.18% at a 3-week low. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.23%) is down -0.70% at a contract low. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) is down -0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.23%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 5-week high.
The China Nov manufacturing PMI fell-0.5 to 50.3, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3 to 50.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 9 months.
The German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.5 from the originally reported 50.0, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.1 from the previously reported 50.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The UK Nov Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4 months.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's credit rating one notch to A1 from Aa3 citing "heightened uncertainty" about the government's ability to meet its debt reduction goals and uncertainty about the timing and effectiveness of measures to boost economic growth.
Japan Q3 capital spending ex-software rose +5.6% y/y, much more than expectations of +1.5% y/y. Q3 capital spending rose +5.5% y/y, over three times expectations of +1.8% y/y.
Japan Nov vehicle sales fell -13.5% y/y, the largest drop in 17 months and the fourth consecutive month sales have declined.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Nov U.S. ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.0 point decline to 58.0, reversing nearly one-half of October’s +2.4 point increase to a 3-1/2 year high of 59.0. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Thor Industries (consensus $0.82).
Equity conference this week include: Capital Link Greek Investor Forum on Mon, Deutsche Bank BioFEST Conference on Mon-Tue, NASDAQ OMX Investor Program on Mon-Wed, Cowen Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue, Real Estate Mexico Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Big Data & Analytics for Banking Summit on Tue-Wed, Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

CSX (CSX -3.75%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at TD Securities.
Exxon Mobile (XOM -4.17%) and Schlumberger (SLM +0.41%) both fell 1.3% in pre-market trading after the price of crude oil slid to a 4-1/3 year low.
Transocean (RIG -9.71%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
Diamond Offshore (DO -8.85%) and Seadrill (SDRL -8.32%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
UBS upgraded the U.S. banking sector to 'Overweight' based on a positive macro outlook that should increase credit demand and benefits from a new interest rate tightening cycle.
Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL +4.84%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Deere (DE -0.43%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at RW Baird.
Navistar (NAV -0.17%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Groupon (GRPN +0.27%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Alcoa (AA -1.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Barclays keeps an 'Overweight' rating on Apple (AAPL -0.06%) and raises its price target on the stock to $140 from $120.
Liberty Global (LBTYA +7.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that Vodafone is exploring a takeover of Liberty Global.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.41%). The S&P 500 index on Friday posted a new record high but fell back and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq +0.46%. The main bearish factor was a slump in energy producers after crude oil prices plunged to a 4-1/3 year low. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in retail stocks amid optimism that this year’s holiday shopping season will be strong, and (2) a rally in airline stocks on speculation that the fall in crude oil prices to a 4-1/2 year low will reduce airlines’ fuel costs and boost profits.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.23%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday rose to a 5-week high and closed higher: TYH5 +0.00, FVH5 +6.50. Bullish factors included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year U.S. break-even inflation expectations rate fell to the lowest level in 3 years, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds that pushed the 10-year bund yield down to a record low of 0.694%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) this morning is down -0.270 (-0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0008 (+0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.749 (+0.85%), EUR/USD -0.00195 (-0.16%), USD/JPY +0.902 (+0.76%). Bearish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will expand stimulus after the Eurozone Nov CPI eased to a 5-year low of +0.3% y/y, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-week high on speculation the BOJ may expand stimulus after Japan Oct national CPI eased to a 7-month low of +2.9% y/y, less than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) this morning is down -63 cents (-0.95%) at a fresh 4-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -0.0189 (-1.03%) at a 4-1/4 year low. Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Friday sold off sharply with Jan crude at a 4-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline at a 4-year low. Closes: CLF5 -7.54 (-10.23%), RBF5 -0.1917 (-9.53%). Bearish factors included (1) OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its meeting on Thursday, which was a clear declaration of a price war against high-cost oil producers, and (2) the rally in the dollar.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/01/2014

US	0945 ET	Revised Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 55.0, previous -1.2 to 54.7.
	1000 ET	Nov ISM manufacturing index expected -1.0 to 58.0, Oct +2.4 to 59.0. Nov ISM new orders sub-index, Oct +5.8 to 65.8. Nov ISM employment sub-index, Oct +0.9 to 55.5. Nov ISM prices paid sub-index expected -1.0 to 52.5, Oct -6.0 to 53.5.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1215 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the economic outlook at Bernard M. Baruch College.
	1300 ET	Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the Feds role in the global economy at a symposium commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Fed.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Nov vehicle sales, Oct -9.1% y/y.
	2030 ET	Japan Oct labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Sep +0.7% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 50.0.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 50.4.
UK	0430 ET	UK Oct net consumer credit expected +1.0 billion pounds, Sep +0.9 billion pounds.
	0430 ET	UK Oct mortgage approvals expected 59,000, Sep 61,300.
	0430 ET	UK Oct M4 money supply, Sep -0.7% m/m and -2.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/01/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
B/E Aerospace Inc	BEAV US	9:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Kennametal Inc	KMT US		Investor Meeting - Day 1	Y 2014
Thor Industries Inc	THO US		Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.815

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, September 10th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.08% and European stocks are up +0.03% on the prospects for a sustained peace in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that Russia has withdrawn more than 70% of its troops from his country. Global stocks also found support on comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang who said that his country will accelerate policy changes to promote growth. Li Keqiang added that the Chinese economy will avoid a hard-landing and that his government will ensure a medium to high growth rate as it deepens policy changes to promote business, attract foreign investment and protect intellectual property. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.25%, Hong Kong -1.93%, China -0.52%, Taiwan -0.82%, Australia -0.60%, Singapore -0.13%, South Korea closed for holiday, India -0.76%. Japanese stocks bucked the trend of lower Asian markets and closed higher as exporter stocks rallied on the prospects for improved earnings after the yen slumped to a fresh 5-3/4 year low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.42%) is up +0.09%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.14%) is up +0.18%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.36%) is up +0.50%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.24%) is down -0.18%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed although Oct live cattle prices are up +1.00% at a new all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37% at a 5-3/4 year high after an unexpected decline in Japanese producer prices last month bolstered expectations for the BOJ to expand stimulus. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -4 ticks at a 1-month low.
Japan Aug PPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, less than expectations of unch m/m and the biggest drop in 22 months. On an annual basis, Aug PPI rose +3.9% y/y, less than expectations of +4.1% y/y.
Japan Jul machine orders rose +3.5% m/m, less than expectations of +4.0% m/m. On an annual basis, Jul machine orders rose +1.1% y/y, double expectations of +0.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Mortgage activity should get a small boost from low U.S. mortgage rates. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There are no Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: (consensus: n/a).
Equity conferences the rest of this week include: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Mon-Wed, Deutsche Bank dbAccess Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Market Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Best of Americas Conference on Tue-Thu, Latin Markets Mexico Energy Summit on Wed, Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference on Wed, Longbow Research - Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference on Wed-Fri, UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, BIO Latin America Conference on Thu, and Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Huntsman (HUN -1.43%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
eBay (EBAY -2.77%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
L Brands (LB -0.72%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Tiffany (TIF -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Hartford Financial (HIG -0.49%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at FBR Capital.
Twitter (TWTR -2.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn raised his stake in Gannett (GCI -3.11%) to 8.48% from 6.63%.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.46%) fell nearly 3% in after-hour trading after the company said that Q3 Same-Store-Ssales thus far are low single-digit negative.
Lazard Asset Management reported a 7.05% passive stake in Orbitz (OWW -1.21%) .
SAIC (SAIC -0.50%) reported Q2 EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 68 cents.
Piper Jaffray believes Apple's (AAPL -0.38%) new product launches met expectations and keeps its 'Overweight' rating on Apple with a $120 price target.
Pershing Square Capital Management reported a 9.7% stake in Allergan (AGN -0.49%) and sent a letter to Allergan's Board of Directors.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.04%) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 Index on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.65%, Dow Jones -0.57%, Nasdaq -0.82%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected -2,000 decline in Jul JOLTS job openings, less than expectations for a +29,000 increase, and (2) long liquidation spurred on by interest rate concerns after a San Francisco Fed research paper stated that investors may be underestimating how quickly the Fed could raise interest rates.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a fresh 1-month low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell to a 1-month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) a San Francisco Fed research paper that stated investors are underestimating how quickly the Fed may hike interest rates, and (2) supply pressures ahead of today's $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes and tomorrow's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds. Closes: TYZ4 -9.50, FVZ4 -7.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.147 (-0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0013 (+0.10%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.39 (+0.37%) at a new 5-3/4 year high. The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 14-month high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) a San Francisco Fed research paper that stated the markets may be underestimating the pace of Fed rate increases, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY surged to a 5-3/4 year high on divergent monetary policies between the Fed, which is cutting stimulus and may soon raise interest rates and the BOJ, which is seen expanding stimulus to boost Japanese growth and combat deflation risks. Closes: Dollar index +0.046 (+0.05%), EUR/USD +0.0043 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.173 (+0.16%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.42%) this morning is up +8 cents (+0.09%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.14%) is up +0.0045 (+0.18%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed: CLV4 +0.09 (+0.10%), RBV4 -0.0169 (-0.66%). Crude found support on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA inventory data will show crude supplies fell -1.5 million bbl, the fourth consecutive decline. Negative factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 14-month high, and (2) increased oil output in Libya after Libya's state-run National Oil Corp. said Libyan oil production rose to 747,000 bpd on Sep 8 from 700,000 bpd on Sep 1.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/10/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.2% with purchase sub-index -1.5% and the refi sub-index +1.4%.
	1000 ET	Jul wholesale inventories expected +0.5% m/m, Jun +0.3% m/m. Jul wholesale trade sales expected +0.6% m/m, Jun +0.2% m/m.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
UK	1901 ET	UK Aug RICS house price balance expected 47%, Jul 49%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Q3 BSI large all-industry business conditions, Q2 -14.6. Q3 BSI large manufacturing business conditions, Q2 -13.9.
CHI	2130 ET	China Aug CPI expected +2.2% y/y, Jul +2.3% y/y. Aug PPI expected -1.1% y/y, Jul -0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/10/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
General Electric Co	GE US	9:00	Investor Meeting - Oil & Gas	Y 2014
B/E Aerospace Inc	BEAV US	9:00	Annual General Meeting
Legg Mason Inc	LM US	12:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Charles Schwab Corp/The	SCHW US		August 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Activity Report	2014

5 Mid Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 400  Mid Cap Index to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts.  Near the top of the list were Idex (IEX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR),  FTI Consulting (FCN), Cree (CREE) and BE Aerospace (BEAV)

IDEX (IEX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 5.35% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 65.84%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 43.39
• Recently traded at 44.51 with a 50 day moving average of 42.04

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 4 new highs and up 51.48% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 83.89%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.96
• Recently traded at 37.00 with a 50 day moving average of 25.19

FTI Consulting (FCN)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 20.24% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.60%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 28.53
• Recently traded at 30.02 with a 50 day moving average of 26.97

Cree (CREE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 5 new highs and up 11.78% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 73.47%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.10
• Recently traded at 33.42
• with a 50 day moving average of 28.66

BE Aerospace (BEAV)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 3 new highs and up 2.42% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 68.04%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.85
• Recently traded at 46.43% with a 50 day moving average of 43.67

MORE STOCK PICKS

Barchart Morning Call 4/23

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Mon Apr 23, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Global stock and commodity prices retreated with June E-mini S&Ps down -14.25 points and the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.77%. Weakness in global manufacturing sent stocks and commodities lower, with gold at a 2-week low, while the euro fell and 10-year T-note yields tumbled to a 1-3/4 month low on political uncertainty after the Dutch government split and French President Sarkozy lost ground in elections. Apr Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for a sixth month according to the Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI, while the Apr Euro-Zone PMI composite unexpectedly fell -1.7 to 47.4, weaker than expectations of a +0.2 increase to 49.3 as it contracted by the most in 5 months. The extra yield investors demand to hold Dutch 10-year bonds over German bunds rose to a 3-year high on speculation the Netherlands ill need to hold early elections after Dutch Prime Minister Rutte failed to reach an agreement with a coalition party over austerity measures. Credit-default swaps to insure French government debt rose to a 3-month high after French President Sarkozy failed to win the first round of elections that forces him to a run-off May 6 with challenger Francois Hollande. The rise in popularity with the anti-euro National Front, which came in third in elections, suggests that negative-Europe sentiment may intensify ahead of the final round of elections next month. The euro also weakened against the dollar after IMF Managing Director Lagarde raised only $430 billion in pledges to help safeguard the global economy at the IMF spring meetings over the weekend, lower than her $600 billion goal as the U.S. declined to participate and Canada proposed making it harder for Europe to tap aid.
• Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.20%, China -0.79%, Australia -0.32%, South Korea -0.07%, India -1.60%. Asian stocks fell on weak earnings results from companies such as South Korea's Daewoo Engineering and Japan's Tokyo Steel Manufacturing, while a manufacturing survey pointed to a deepening economic slowdown in China. The Apr HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose +0.8 to 49.1, which suggests Chinese manufacturing activity will contract for a sixth month. Japanese power companies slumped after the Nikkei newspaper reported that 54% of the population was critical of the government's assessment that it was safe to restart 2 of Kansai Electric's idled nuclear reactors. Chinese oil companies fell after China National Radio reported that the government may cut gasoline and diesel prices next month because a slowing economy has cut fuel demand, which would reduce refiners' earnings. Losses in Chinese stocks were limited however; on speculation government officials will adopt more policies to stimulate economic growth along with the prospects of additional PBOC easing measures.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading down -14.25 points as Chinese and European manufacturing activity contracted along with political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands. The U.S. stock market on Friday settled mostly higher after an unexpected jump in German business sentiment to a 9-month high boosted confidence in Europe's largest economy, while positive earnings results from Microsoft, McDonalds and General Electric kept equity gains intact, but the Nasdaq finished lower as a slump in Apple and IBM dragged down technology stocks: Dow Jones +0.50%, S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq Composite -0.24%. Another positive for stocks was speculation that the IMF would receive additional funding to help contain the European debt crisis when Russian Deputy Finance Minister Storchak said that the G-20 will announce new funding for the IMF's European reserves that will "satisfy" requests from IMF Managing Director Lagarde. Limiting stock gains is the ongoing European debt crisis after credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt climbed to a record high 503 bp and the cost of insuring Italian debt increased to 474 bp, a 3-month high.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +13.5 ticks on renewed safe-haven demand as global equity markets slide. T-note prices Friday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand after global stocks rallied when Apr German IFO business sentiment unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high: TYM2 -3.0, FVM2 -1.0. Losses in Treasuries were limited however, on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt rose to an all-time high.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with USD/JPY -0.47 yen and EUR/USD -0.46 cents. The dollar index on Friday tumbled to a 2-1/2 week low and settled lower as an unexpected increase in Apr German IFO business climate to a 9-month high boosted stocks and the euro and reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar: Dollar Index -0.367, USD/JPY -0.073, EUR/USD +0.00805. Other bearish factors for the dollar included the fall in dollar funding costs for European banks to an 8-1/2 month low along with expectations that the IMF will get additional funds from member countries to help it protect the world economy against more fiscal turmoil in Europe after IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she expects the IMF's firepower to be "significantly" increased. Bullish factors for the dollar were continued weakness in the yen which fell to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar on the prospects for additional asset-purchases by the BOJ along with concerns the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt soared to an all-time high.
• Jun crude oil prices this morning are trading down -85 cents a barrel and Jun gasoline is down -1.15 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed as crude closed higher after the dollar fell, German business confidence rose to a 9-month high and as global equity markets strengthened, but a narrowing of crack spreads fueled liquidation of long gasoline positions and led gasoline lower: CLM12 +1.16, RBM2 -0.58. Another positive factor for the energy markets was the report from the API that said deliveries of gasoline, a measure of consumption, rose for a second month in Mar as they climbed +3% y/y to 9.01 million barrels a day. A bearish factor that limited gains in crude was the increase in credit-default swaps to insure Spanish government debt to a record, which signals the European debt crisis may worsen and slow economic growth and energy demand.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): COP-ConocoPhillips (consensus $2.08), TXN-Texas Instruments (0.29), ETN-Eaton (0.90), CHKP-Check Point Software Technology (0.72), STI-SunTrust Banks (0.33), AMP-Ameriprise Financial (1.39), XRX-Xerox (0.22), ROP-Roper Industries (1.04), NFLX-Netflix (-0.17), ILMN-Illumina (0.32), WRB-WR Berkley (0.66), HAS-Hasbro (0.07), DHI-DR Horton (0.04), BEAV-BE Aerospace (0.62), ZION-Zions Bancorporation (0.27).
Global Financial Calendar

Monday 4/23/12
United States
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Japan
0100 ET	Revised Feb Japan coincident index CI, previous 93.7. Revised Feb leading index CI, previous 96.6.
1950 ET	Mar Japan corporate service price index expected -0.6% y/y, Feb -0.6% y/y.
France
0245 ET	Apr French business confidence indicator expected unchanged at 96, Mar +3 to 96.
0300 ET	Apr French PMI manufacturing expected +0.7 to 47.4, Mar -3.3 to 46.7.
0300 ET	Apr French PMI services expected unchanged at 50.1, Mar +0.1 to 50.1.
Germany
0330 ET	Apr German PMI manufacturing expected +0.6 to 49.0, Mar -1.8 to 48.4.
0330 ET	Apr German PMI services expected +0.2 to 52.3, Mar -0.7 to 52.1.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Apr Euro-Zone PMI composite expected +0.2 to 49.3, Mar -0.2 to 49.1.
1145 ET	ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaks at the Economic Club in New York.
Canada
0830 ET	Feb Canada wholesale sales expected -0.5% m/m, Jan -1.0% m/m.

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