BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/16

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.39% as the FOMC starts a 2-day policy meeting. European stocks were also undercut after German investor confidence fell for a ninth consecutive month to a 23-month low. The ruble fell to a record low for a fourth day as it dropped to an all-time low of 38.88 per dollar as additional sanctions and closed access to foreign-exchange liquidity pummels Russia's currency. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.23%, Hong Kong -0.91%, China -1.99%, Taiwan -0.91%, Australia -0.51%, Singapore -1.20%, South Korea +0.34%, India -1.21%. China's Shanghai Stock Index dropped to a 1-week low after China Aug foreign direct investment unexpectedly declined for a second month. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.36%) is down -0.24%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.06%) is up +0.18%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.34%) is up +0.42%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.70%) is up +0.53%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.15%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German Sep ZEW survey of economic growth expectations fell -1.7 to 6.9, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.6 to 5.0, but still the lowest in 23 months. The Sep ZEW survey current situation tumbled -18.9 to 25.4, a much bigger decline than expectations of -4.3 to 40.0 and the lowest in 13 months.
China Aug foreign direct investment unexpectedly fell for a second month as it plunged -14.0% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.8% y/y.
UK Aug CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.5% y/y, right on expectations, while Aug core CPI rose +1.9% y/y, more than expectations of +1.8% y/y.
UK Jul ONS house prices rose +11.7% y/y, a larger increase than the +10.2% y/y gain in Jun and the most in 7 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Aug final-demand PPI index is expected to edge higher to +1.8% y/y from +1.7% in July. Meanwhile, the Aug core final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.8% y/y from +1.6% in July. The market is unanimously expecting the FOMC after its 2-day meeting that begins today to announce another $10 billion cut in QE3 to $15 billion. Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting and the FOMC will release updated forecasts. There are two earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies: FactSet (consensus $1.31), Adobe Systems (0.26).
Equity conferences this week include: Citi Investment Research Investor Meetings on Mon, Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference on Mon-Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Marcellus-Utica Summit on Tue, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Tue-Wed, Deutsche Bank Access Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Healthcare Conference on Wed, Capital Link Global Commodities Energy & Freight Forum on Wed, Wolfe Research Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Wed-Thu, Morningstar Management Behind the Moat Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Houston Energy Bus-less Tour on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Science Conference on Thu, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, MKM Partners Entertainment, Leisure & Internet Conference on Thu, 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Con-way (CNW +0.38%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at RW Baird.
Arch Coal (ACI -3.05%) and Peabody (BTU -2.22%) were both downgraded to 'Reduce' from 'Neutral' at Nomura.
TRW Automotive (TRW -0.78%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
AngloGold (AU +1.64%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at HSBC.
Terex (TEX -6.43%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Cummins (CMI -0.48%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
Anglo American (AAUKY +0.84%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Science Application International Corporation (SAIC -0.06%) has been awarded a $423.8 million government bridge contract for maintenance, repair, and operations in New Jersey.
Microsoft (MSFT -0.96%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.
Adobe (ADBE -1.00%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
Glenview Capital Management reported a 6.15% passive stake in Fossil (FOSL -2.60%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.14%). The S&P 500 Index on Monday dropped to a 3-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.07%, Dow Jones +0.26%, Nasdaq -0.97%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected -0.1% decline in U.S. Aug industrial production, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and the first decline in 7 months, (2) the OECD’s cut its 2014 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.1% from a May estimate of 2.6%, and (3) concern that a slowdown in China’s economy will undercut global economic growth after China Aug industrial production rose by only +6.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +8.8% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5-1/2 years.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.15%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday recovered from a 1-1/2 month low and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Aug industrial production, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 fell to a 3-week low. Closes: TYZ4 +5.50, FVZ4 +4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.020 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06 (-0.06%). The dollar index on Monday closed little changed. Negative factors for the dollar included (1) the OECD’s cut in its 2014 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.1% from a May estimate of 2.6% and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Aug industrial production. Closes: Dollar index +0.024 (+0.03%), EUR/USD -0.00225 (-0.17%), USD/JPY -0.122 (-0.11%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.36%) this morning is down -22 cents (-0.24%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.06%) is up +0.0046 (+0.18%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Monday shook off early losses and closed higher: CLV4 +0.65 (+0.70%), RBV4 +0.00133 (+0.53%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Sep Empire manufacturing index to the fastest pace of expansion in 4-3/4 years. Crude prices had opened lower with Oct gasoline at a 10-1/4 month low on bearish factors that included (1) Chinese demand concerns after China Aug industrial production rose at the slowest pace in 5-1/2 years, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Aug industrial production.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/16/2014

US	0830 ET	Aug PPI final demand expected unch m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Aug PPI final demand ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jul +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
	1030 ET	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Jul -0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Aug core CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Jul +1.8% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Aug RPI expected +0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jul -0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Aug RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +2.5% y/y, Jul +2.6% y/y
	0430 ET	UK Aug PPI input prices expected -0.4% m/m and -6.9% y/y, Jul -1.6% m/m and -7.3% y/y. Aug PPI output prices expected -0.1% m/m and -0.3% y/y, Jul -0.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Aug PPI output core expected unch m/m and +0.9% y/y, Jul unch m/m and +0.9% y/y
	0430 ET	UK Jul ONS house prices, Jun +10.2% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German Sep ZEW survey economic growth expectations expected -3.6 to 5.0, Aug 8.6. Sep ZEW survey current situation expected -4.3 to 40.0, Aug 44.3.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Q2 labor costs, Q1 +0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/16/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.308
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Adobe Systems Inc	ADBE US	17:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Adobe Systems Inc	ADBE US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.264
MetLife Inc	MET US	19:30	Investor Day - Asia
Varian Medical Systems Inc	VAR US		Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Yum! Brands Inc	YUM US		Investor & Analyst Conference - Day 2	Y 2014
LPL Financial Holdings Inc	LPLA US		Roadshow - Chicago	Y 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 4/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, April 9th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.14%) this morning are up +0.09% and European stocks are up +0.32%. Alcoa started quarterly earnings season off on a positive note as it trades up by more than 3% in pre-market trading after it reported better-than-expected quarterly profits. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after pro-Russian activists released scores of hostages in Ukraine's eastern city of Luhansk today after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry accused Russia of using "special forces and agents" to fuel unrest. Asian stocks outside of Japan closed higher: Japan -2.10%, Hong Kong +1.09%, China +0.06%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia +0.98%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +0.28%, India +1.61%. China's Shanghai Stock Index posted a 1-1/2 month high on signs the government will boost stimulus measures to promote economic growth after the People's Daily reported that the Chinese government raised its fixed-asset investment target for railway spending this year to 720 billion yuan ($116.2 billion) from 700 billion yuan. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.16%) is down -0.03%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.30%) is up +0.23%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.45%) is up +0.02%. May copper (HGK14 -0.69%) is down -0.48%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although May soybeans are up +0.74% at a 7-month nearest-futures high ahead of the USDA's Apr WASDE crop production report later today. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.23%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.11%) are down -5 ticks.
The German Feb trade balance increased to a 16.3 billion euro surplus from a 15.0 billion euro surplus in Jan, less than expectations of a 17.5 billion euro surplus. Feb exports fell -1.3% m/m, more than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 9 months. Feb imports rose +0.4% m/m, better than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
The South Korean won climbed to 1,040.46 per dollar today, the highest in 5-1/2 years, on speculation that South Korean authorities will allow it to appreciate after South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh Seok told reporters that the government is more concerned with currency market volatility than the level of the won.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The minutes will be released today from the March 18-19 FOMC meeting. That was the meeting at which the FOMC dropped its 6.5% unemployment rate threshold and said will now look at a “wide range of information” when deciding on policy. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion in 10-year T-notes. There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Constellation Brands (consensus $0.76), MSC Industrial Direct (0.85), Bed Bath & Beyond (1.60), and Progressive Corp (0.39). Equity and industry conferences during the remainder of this week include: BNEF Summit on Mon-Wed, and New Economic Summit (NES) 2014 on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Constellation Brands (STZ +0.84%) raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $3.95-$4.15, above consensus of $3.95.

Arch Coal (ACI +3.19%) and Walter Energy (WLT +4.77%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
General Motors (GM +1.23%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
The WSJ reports that Apple (AAPL -0.01%) seeks $2.2 billion in damages from Samsung (SSNLF +6.56%) in patent infringement charges that covers more than 37 million smartphones and tablets sold by Samsung in the U.S. from 2011-2013.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE -1.08%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
NASDAQ (NDAQ -2.74%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill.
Tech Data (TECD +0.62%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.10, better than consensus of $1.93, although Q$ revenue of $7.97 billion was below consensus of $7.98 billion.
Toyota Motor (TM -2.06%) announced five recalls involving 27 Toyota models and over 6 million vehicles worldwide.
Aeropostale (ARO +1.19%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -1.45%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 revenue of $465 million, well below consensus of $537.9 million.
SAIC (SAIC +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of 66 cents, higher than consensus of 65 cents.
JP Morgan Chase reported a 10.7% passive stake in Malibu Boats (MBUU +0.41%) .
Philip Morris (PM +1.12%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Reduce' at Nomura.
Alcoa (AA +0.48%) rose over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 9 cents, well ahead of consensus of 5 cents, although Q1 revenue of $5.50 billion was below consensus of $5.55 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.14%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.09%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the IMF report stating that the U.S. economy is in good shape and is providing a “major impulse” to global economic growth, and (2) a rebound in biotechnology and computer and internet-related stocks that had slumped over the past 2 sessions on concern about their high multiples. Closes: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.06%, Nasdaq +0.87%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.11%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday climbed to a 2-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) increased flight-to-safety demand for T-notes on concerns about Ukraine after Russia called on Ukraine to halt all military preparations “immediately” in the eastern part of Ukraine or risk civil war, and (2) strong demand for the Treasury’s $30 billion 3-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, above the 12-auction average of 3.28. Closes: TYM4 +6.00, FVM4 +1.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is up +0.044 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%). USD/JPY
(^USDJPY) is up +0.23 (+0.23%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 2-1/2 week low after the BOJ refrained from additional stimulus measures following their 2-day policy meeting, and (2) reduced European sovereign debt concerns that boosted EUR/USD after ECB data showed that ECB lending to Portuguese banks in March fell for a sixth month to 45.05 billion euros, the least amount Portuguese lenders have borrowed from the ECB since July 2011. Closes: Dollar index -0.480 (-0.60%), EUR/USD +0.00555 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -1.284 (+1.25%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.16%) this morning is down -3 cents (-0.03%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.30%) is up +0.0069 (+0.23%). May crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday rallied to 1-month highs and closed sharply higher. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 2-week low, (2) expectations that Wednesday’s EIA data will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point for WTI futures, fell for a tenth straight week, and (3) strength in gasoline on expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA gasoline inventories to decline -940,000 bbl, the seventh consecutive decline. Closes: CLK4 +2.12 (+2.11%). RBK4 +0.0565 (+1.93%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/09/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.2% with purchase sub-index +0.9% and refi sub-index -2.9%.
	1000 ET	Feb wholesale inventories expected +0.5% m/m, Jan +0.6% m/m. Feb wholesale trade sales expected +1.0% m/m, Jan -1.9% m/m.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1200 ET	Apr WASDE crop production report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Minutes of the Mar 18-19 FOMC meeting.
	1530 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speak at a conference in Washington D.C. titled Stabilizing Financial Systems for Growth and Full Employment.
GER	0200 ET	German Feb trade balance expected +17.5 billion euros, Jan +15.0 billion euros. Feb exports expected -0.5% m/m, Jan +2.2% m/m. Feb imports expected +0.1% m/m, Jan +4.1% m/m.
UK	1901 ET	UK Mar RICS house price balance expected 43%, Feb 45%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Feb machine orders expected -2.6% m/m and +17.5% y/y, Jan+13.4% m/m and +23.6% y/y.
CHI	n/a	China Mar trade balance expected +$1.80 billion, Feb -$22.99 billion. Mar exports expected +4.8% y/y, Feb 18.1% y/y. Mar imports expected +3.9% y/y, Feb +10.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/09/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Constellation Brands Inc	STZ US	4/9/2014	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.761
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	4/9/2014	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.846
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	4/9/2014	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Tech Data Corp	TECD US	4/9/2014	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Valley National Bancorp	VLY US	4/9/2014	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	4/9/2014	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.601
Lennar Corp	LEN US	4/9/2014	Annual General Meeting
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	4/9/2014	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.385
Progressive Corp/The	PGR US	4/9/2014	March 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Questar Corp	STR US	4/9/2014	Roadshow - Day 2	Y 2014
Schlumberger Ltd	SLB US	4/9/2014	Annual General Meeting
IHS Inc	IHS US	4/9/2014	Annual General Meeting
Avago Technologies Ltd	AVGO US	4/9/2014	Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, March 25th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.85% ahead of U.S. data later today on consumer confidence, home prices and new home sales. Gains in European stocks were muted after a gauge of German investor confidence fell for the first time in five months. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.36%, Hong Kong -0.52%. China -0.10%, Taiwan +0.98%, Australia -0.19%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.30%, India closed for holiday. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on speculation the Chinese government will take steps to support economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) is up +0.37%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.44%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.28%) is up +0.34%. May copper (HGK14 +1.49%) is up +1.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 unch) are up +1.5 ticks.
The German Mar IFO business climate fell -0.6 to 110.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.4 to 110.9. The Mar IFO current assessment rose +0.8 to 115.2, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.1 to 114.5 and the highest in 1-3/4 years. Mar IFO expectations fell -1.9 to 106.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 107.7.
UK Feb CPI rose +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, right on expectations, with the +1.7% y/y increase the smallest annual gain in 4-1/3 years. Feb core CPI gained +1.7% y/y, higher than expectations of unch at +1.6 y/y.
UK Feb RPI rose +0.6% m/m and +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
UK Feb PPI input prices fell -0.4% m/m and -5.7% y/y, bigger declines than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, with the -5.7% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 4-1/3 years.
UK Feb PPI output prices were unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Feb PPI output core prices rose +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, close to expectations of unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Feb new home sales report is expected to show a decline of -4.9% to 445,000, reversing part of January’s surprise +9.6% increase to a 5-1/2 year high of 468,000. Today’s Jan CaseShiller composite-20 home price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.6% m/m while the Jan FHFA house price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m. Today’s March U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 78.5, reversing part of the -1.3 point drop to 78.1 seen in February. Today’s March Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +10 point increase to 4, reversing more than one-half of the sharp -18 point drop to -6 seen in February.
There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Carnival (consensus -0.08), McCormick (0.58), HD Supply (-0.03), Walgreen (0.93), PVH Corp (1.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Emerging Payments Forum on Mon-Tue, TAG Spring Consumer Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference & Exhibition on Mon-Wed, BB&T Capital Markets Commercial & Industrial Conference on Wed, CIBC Retail and Consumer Conference on Wed, JPMorgan Insurance Conference on Wed, Oracle Storage Summit New York on Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

BofA/Merrill added CSX (CSX -0.24%) to its top stock pick list for 2014.
Walgreens (WAG -0.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 93 cents.
AT&T (T +0.47%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at HSBC.
The NYT reports that General Motors (GM +0.37%) told its customers and families of accident victims that it did not have sufficient evidence to determine that there were defects in its cars, even after the company had definitive evidence of such a defect.
Arch Coal (ACI +3.08%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Navistar (NAV +0.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
KBR (KBR -0.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Domtar (UFS +0.08%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
RealD (RLD -3.39%) and Wanda Cinema Line Corporation announced an extended agreement to install an additional 780 RealD 3D Cinema Systems in China.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 6% passive stake in Stone Energy (SGY +0.08%) .
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Brazil to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' with a stable outlook on its long-term credit rating.
PL Capital reported a 5.2% stake in Metro Bancorp (METR +0.98%) .
Disney (DIS -1.07%) has agreed to acquire Maker Studios for $500 million.
BioMarin (BMRN -0.30%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.
Blackstone Holdings I reported a 6% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC -1.77%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the China Mar HSBC manufacturing PMI that unexpectedly weakened for the fifth straight month as it fell by -0.4 to an 8-month low of 48.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 48.7, and (2) concern the Ukraine crisis may escalate after Ukraine’s foreign minister said the risk of war is growing as Russia continues to mass troops along the Ukraine border. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.98%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 unch) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures with $109 billion T-notes to be auctioned this week, and (2) negative carry-over from Fed Chair Yellen’s indication last Wednesday that the funds rate might be raised as soon as spring 2015. Closes: TYM4 -1.00, FVM4 -3.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.079 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from early losses and closed higher after the Bundesbank stated in its monthly report said that it sees a “substantial strengthening of the overall pace of economic expansion” in Q1 German economic growth. Closes: Dollar index -0.171 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.00461 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.004 (+0.01%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) this morning is up 37 cents (+0.37%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.0128 (+0.44%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices rose on concern that the closure of the Houston Ship Canal since Saturday due to an oil spill will disrupt refinery operations and lead to reduced production at refineries along the Gulf Coast. Bearish factors included global demand concerns after the Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to an 8-month low and the German manufacturing PMI slipped to its slowest pace in 4 months. Closes: CLK4 +0.14 (+0.14%). RBK4 -0.0139 (-0.48%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/25/2014

US	0900 ET	Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.60% m/m and +13.34% y/y, Dec +0.76% m/m and +13.42% y/y.
	0900 ET	Jan FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Dec +0.8% m/m.
	1000 ET	March U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.4 to 78.5, Feb -1.3 to 78.1.
	1000 ET	Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +10 to 4, Feb -18 to -6.
	1000 ET	Feb new home sales expected -4.9% to 445,000, Jan +9.6% to 468,000.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1600 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook at the Rutberg Global Summit.
	1900 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
GER	0500 ET	German Mar IFO business climate expected -0.4 to 110.9, Feb 111.3. Mar IFO current assessment expected +0.1 to 114.5, Feb 114.4. Mar IFO expectations expected -0.6 to 107.7, Feb 108.3.
UK	0530 ET	UK Feb CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jan -0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Jan +1.6% y/y.
	0530 ET	UK Feb RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Jan -0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Feb RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.6% y/y, Jan +2.8% y/y.
	0530 ET	UK Feb PPI input prices expected +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, Jan -0.9% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
	0530 ET	UK Feb PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Feb PPI output core expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
	0700 ET	UK Mar CBI reported sales expected -9 to 28, Feb 37.
EUR	1200 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi gives a lecture in Paris.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Feb corporate service price index expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.8% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/25/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Carnival Corp	CCL US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	-0.083
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2014 Earnings Release	Q1 2014	0.579
HD Supply Holdings Inc	HDS US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	-0.029
Walgreen Co	WAG US	7:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.932
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	8:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
HD Supply Holdings Inc	HDS US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Walgreen Co	WAG US	8:30	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Akamai Technologies Inc	AKAM US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc	LLL US	9:00	Investor Conference	Y 2014
Carnival Corp	CCL US	10:00	Q1 2014 Earnings Call	Q1 2014
Panera Bread Co	PNRA US	10:30	Investor Day	Y 2014
Beam Inc	BEAM US	12:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2014
NVIDIA Corp	NVDA US	12:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Adobe Systems Inc	ADBE US	17:00	Financial Analyst Briefing	Y 2014
PVH Corp	PVH US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.42
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Boston	Y 2014
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investors Meeting - Day 1	Y 2014
General Motors Co	GM US		GM Recall Documentation Submittal to US House Energy & Commerce Committee

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/27

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, September 27th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.40%) this morning are down -0.40% and European stocks are also down -0.40% over concern a shutdown of the federal government due to the U.S. budget impasse will hurt economic growth. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.26%, Hong Kong +0.35%, China +0.44%, Taiwan +0.56%, Australia +0.24%, Singapore +0.50%, South Korea +0.10%, India -0.84%. The U.S. Senate will vote today on an emergency budget to prevent a shutdown of the federal government when the new fiscal year begins on Tuesday. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Nov crude oil (CLX13 -0.45%) is down -0.60% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.33%) is down -0.38% as the five permanent members of the UN Security Council prepare to vote later today on a resolution to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.87%) is up +0.07% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.29%) is up +0.12%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.22%) is down -0.14%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.12% after Eurozone Sep economic confidence rose to a 2-year high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.46%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.14%) are up +3.5 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep business climate indicator rose +0.02 from Aug to -0.20, less than expectations of +0.11 to -0.10, but still the highest in 1-1/2 years. Sep economic confidence rose +1.6 to 96.9, better than expectations of +0.8 to 96.0 and the highest in 2 years.
UK Sep Lloyds business barometer of economic optimism rose +3 to 57, the highest since the data series began in 2002.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence climbed +3 to -10, better than expectations of +2 to -11 and the highest in nearly 6 years.
UK Sep nationwide house prices increased +0.9% m/m and +5.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +4.4% y/y with the +5.0% y/y increase the biggest annual gain in 3 years.
Japan Aug national CPI rose +0.9% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.8% y/y. Aug national CPI ex-fresh food rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, and Aug national CPI ex food & energy fell -0.1% y/y, right on expectations.
China Aug industrial profits year-to-date rose +12.8% y/y from +11.1% y/y in July, the most in 6 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s final-Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +1.2 point increase to 78.0 from 76.8 in early-Sep.  Today’s Aug personal income and spending reports are expected to remain lackluster, suggesting that consumers will not be providing any significant near-term boost to the U.S. economy.  Aug personal income is expected to improve to +0.4% from +0.1% in July and Aug personal spending is expected to improve to +0.3% from +0.1% in July.  Today’s Aug PCE deflator is expected to ease to +1.2% y/y from +1.4% in July.  Meanwhile, the Aug core PCE deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to edge higher to +1.3% /y from +1.2% y/y in July.  There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Chimera Investment Corp (consensus $0.11).

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Bank of America (BAC -0.42%) and Goldman Sachs (GS -0.01%) wwere both downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Guggenheim.
BlackBerry (BBRY -0.75%) reported a Q2 adjusted EPS loss of -47 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -49 cents.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY +0.72%) was upgraded to "Positive" from "Neutral" at Susquehanna.
Finish Line (FINL +0.45%) reported Q2 EPS of 54 cents, better than consensus of 45 cents.
The NY Times reports that the Justice Department has asked JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.37%) to pay a higher fine for questionable mortgage practices than the roughly $7 billion that it has offered to pay.
Akamai (AKAM +1.32%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at B. Riley.
Arch Coal (ACI -1.52%) was downgraded to "Sell" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
KKR Fund reported a 28.4% stake in RigNet (RNET +3.43%) .
Thor Industries (THO -0.53%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.04, well ahead of consensus of 95 cents.
Nike (NKE +2.06%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 86 cents, stronger than consensus of 78 cents.
PetSmart (PETM +0.76%) announced that it will increase its quarterly dividend from 16.5 cents to 19.5 cents per share beginning in the third quarter of fiscal 2013.
Accenture (ACN -0.33%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.01, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $7.1 billion was higher than consensus of $6.9 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.40%) this morning are down -6.75 points (-0.40%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed higher after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -5,000 to 305,000, better than expectations for a +16,000 increase to 325,000. Gains in stocks were limited by (1) the -1.6% decline in Aug pending home sales (weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m), and (2) concern that the budget impasse in Washington could prompt a shutdown of the federal government and weaken the economic recovery. Closes: S&P 500 +0.35%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Nasdaq 100 +0.79%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.14%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed lower after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell. However, supportive factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Aug pending home sales report of -1.6%, and (2) safe-haven demand over the battle in Washington over the continuing resolution and the debt ceiling. Closes: TYZ3 -6.00, FVZ3 -2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.22%) this morning is down -0.110 (-0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0016 (+0.12%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.46 (-0.46%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher as an unexpected decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims bolstered speculation the Fed may taper QE3 as soon as next month. USD/JPY rose as the yen weakened on the Kyodo News report that Prime Minister Abe’s administration pledged to “promptly” begin a study on reducing Japan’s corporate tax rate. Closes: Dollar index +0.189 (+0.24%), EUR/USD -0.00371 (-0.27%), USD/JPY +0.546 (+0.55%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 -0.45%) this morning is down -62 cents (-0.60%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.33%) is down -0.0102 (-0.38%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) signs of economic strength after U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell -5,000, versus expectations of a +16,000 increase, and (2) strength in gasoline on speculation that supplies will be limited on reduced output due to seasonal refinery maintenance and turnarounds to winter-blends. Closes: CLX3 +0.37 (+0.36%), RBX3 +0.0303 (+1.14%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/27/2013

US	0545 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy at the Norges Bank Conference in Oslo, Norway.
	0830 ET	Aug personal spending expected +0.3%, July +0.1%. Aug personal income expected +0.4%, July +0.1%. Aug PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, July +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Aug PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, July +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
	0830 ET	Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers opening remarks at a conference on stable funding at the New York Fed.
	0955 ET	Final U.S. Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +1.2 to 78.0, previous -5.3 to 76.8.
	1015 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks as part of a panel discussion titled Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Going Forward at the Norges Bank Conference in Oslo, Norway.
	1400 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at an event in New York on national and regional economic conditions.
	1500 ET	Q3 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs.
UK	0200 ET	UK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Aug +0.6% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 54.
	0430 ET	UK July index of services expected +0.5% m/m and +0.6% 3-mo/3-mo, June unch m/m and +0.6% 3-mo/3-mo.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Sep business climate indicator expected +0.11 to -0.10, Aug -0.21. Sep economic confidence expected +0.8 to 96.0, Aug 95.2.
	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone Sep consumer confidence.
GER	0800 ET	German Sep CPI (EU harmonized) expected unch m/m and +1.6% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/27/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
General Electric Co	GE US	7:15	Ottawa Chamber of Commerce Presents CEO, Elyse Allan
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	10:00	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2013
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc	MAA US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc	MAA US		Special Meeting - M&A Vote
Chimera Investment Corp	CIM US		Q2 2012 Earnings Release	Q2 2012	0.108