Showing posts with label ARO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ARO. Show all posts

Thursday, December 3, 2015

MORNING CALL 12/3

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.49%) are up +0.56% and European stocks are up +1.22% before an expected expansion of ECB stimulus and before Fed Chair Yellen gives another speech later today. Gains in European automakers led the overall market higher as a -0.65% slide in EUR/USD (^EURUSD) to a 7-1/2 month low gives exporters a boost. On the negative side, mining stocks fell with Anglo American Plc at a 16-year low and BHP Billiton Ltd. near a 7-year low, as metals prices retreated with the price of gold (GCG16 -0.36%) down -0.40% to a new 5-3/4 year low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.01%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China +1.35%, Taiwan -0.02%, Australia -0.58%, Singapore +0.01%, South Korea -0.78%, India-0.89%. China's Shanghai Composite moved higher for a fourth day on speculation that China will soon expand its stimulus measures.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) is up +0.40%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.65% at a 7-1/2 month low on anticipation the ECB will expand QE later today. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.07%) are down -5.5 ticks.
Eurozone Oct retail sales fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Nov Challenger job cuts (Oct -1.3% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +8,000 to 268,000, previous -12,000 to 260,000) and continuing claims (expected -17,000 to 2.190 million, previous +34,000 to 2.207 million), (3) final-Nov Markit services PMI (expected unch at 56.5, prelim-Nov +1.7 to 56.5) (4) Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the congressional Joint Economic Committee to discuss the economic outlook, (5) Oct factory orders (expected +1.4% and +0.2% ex transportation, Sep -1.0% and -0.6% ex transportation), (6) Nov non-manufacturing ISM (expected -1.1 to 58.0, Oct +2.2 to 59.1), and (7) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's keynote speech at a conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research.
There are 8 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Medtronic (consensus $1.00), Sears Holdings (-2.84), Dollar General (0.87), Michaels Cos (0.36), Toro (0.39), Cooper Cos (2.11), Ulta Salon (1.05), Kroger (0.39).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. Investor Program on Wed-Thu, ASEAN Business Summit on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Thu.








OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK +1.23%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after the stock was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Disney (DIS -1.20%) boosted its semi-annual dividend to 71 cents a share from 66 cents.
Avago (AVGO -0.51%) climbed over 8% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.51, higher than consensus of $2.38.
Boyd Gaming (BYD +1.88%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Sell.'
Dollar General (DG -0.56%) reported Q3 EPS of 88 cents, better than consensus of 87 cents.
Dyax (DYAX -0.83%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it said its deal to acquire Shire Pharmaceuticals International cleared an anti-trust review by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
Tilly's (TLYS +0.99%) dropped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, above consensus of 14 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to 10 cents-12 cents, well below consensus of 21 cents.
PVH Corp. (PVH +1.26%) rallied over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.66, better than consensus of $2.47.
Aeropostale (ARO +5.36%) slid nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -31 cents, a smaller loss than expectations of-34 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to a loss of -4 cents to -17 cents, below consensus of a 2 cent profit.
Verint Systems (VRNT -0.96%) tumbled 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, below consensus of 79 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $3.30 from a September estimate of $3.45, below consensus of $3.46.
Synopsys (SNPS -0.91%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, above consensus of 66 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q1 adjusted EPS to 60 cents-63 cents, below consensus of 72 cents.
American Eagle (AEO +0.25%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents, and said it sees Q4 EPS of 40 cents-42 cents, in line with consensus of 41 cents.
Photronics (PLAB +0.81%) rallied over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, higher than consensus of 19 cents.
Box (BOX +3.28%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted loss of -31 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $78.7 million was above consensus of $76.8 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.49%) this morning are up +11.75 points (+0.56%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.10%, Dow Jones -0.89%, Nasdaq-0.63%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday posted a 4-week high but fell back and posted a 1-week low as energy stocks fell after the price of crude oil dropped to a 2-week low, and after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart that solidified expectations for a Fed interest rate increase later this month.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.07%) this morning are down -5.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 -7.50, FVH6 -6.75. Mar T-notes closed lower after the Nov ADP employment change rose +217,000, stronger than expectations of +190,000 and the biggest increase in 5 months and after comments from Fed Chair Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart reinforced expectations for the Fed to begin raising interest rates later this month.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) this morning is up +0.397 (+0.40%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0069 (-0.65%) at a fresh 7-1/2 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.19%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.198 (+0.20%), EUR/USD -0.0018 (-0.17%), USD/JPY +0.37 (+0.30%). The dollar index Wednesday surged to a 12-1/2 year high after Fed Chair Yellen said the U.S. economy is ready for an interest rate increase later this month, and on weakness in EUR/USD which sank to a 7-1/2 month on expectations for the ECB to expand QE Thursday after Eurozone Nov CPI rose less than expected.
Jan crude oil (CLF16 +1.38%) this morning is up +69 cents (+1.73%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 +0.20%) is up +0.0084 (+0.65%). Wednesday’s closes: CLF6 -1.75 (-4.18%), RBF6 -0.0619 (-4.54%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply lower with Jan crude at a 2-week low and Jan gasoline at a 1-week low after the dollar index rallied to a 12-1/2 year high and after EIA crude inventories unexpected rose +1.18 million bbl to a 7-month high, more than expectations for a -800,000 bbl draw. Other bearish factors were the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production to a 3-month high of 9.202 million bpd and the +428,000 bbl increase in crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to a 6-month high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/03/2015
US0730 ETNov Challenger job cuts, Oct -1.3% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +8,000 to 268,000, previous -12,000 to 260,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-17,000 to 2.190 million, previous +34,000 to 2.207 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETFinal-Nov Markit services PMI expected unch at 56.5, prelim-Nov +1.7 to 56.5. Final-Nov Markit composite PMI, prelim Nov +1.1 to 56.1.
1000 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the congressional Joint Economic Committee to discuss the economic outlook.
1000 ETOct factory orders expected +1.4% and +0.2% ex transportation, Sep -1.0% and -0.6% ex transportation. Revised Oct durable goods orders, prelim-Oct +3.0% m/m and +0.5% ex-transportation.
1000 ETNov non-manufacturing ISM expected -1.1 to 58.0, Oct +2.2 to 59.1.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Dec 8-10.
1310 ETFed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers keynote speech at a conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Treasurys Office of Financial Research.
GER0355 ETRevised German Nov Markit services PMI, preliminary +1.1 to 55.6.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI, preliminary +0.5 to 54.4.
0500 ETEurozone Oct retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision, expected 10 bp cut in the ECB deposit facility rate to -0.3% from -0.2%.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
UK0430 ETUK Nov Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.1 to 55.0, Oct 54.9.
JPN2030 ETJapan Oct labor cash earnings expected +0.5%y/y, Sep +0.4% y/y. Oct real cash earnings, Sep +0.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/03/2015

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Sears Holdings CorpSHLD USBef-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2016-2.84
Dollar General CorpDG USBef-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.872
Michaels Cos Inc/TheMIK USBef-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.362
Sears Holdings CorpSHLD US6:10Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Medtronic PLCMDT US6:45Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161
L Brands IncLB US7:30November 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
Medtronic PLCMDT US8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Anthem IncANTM US8:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
General Electric CoGE US8:30Investor MeetingY 2015
Toro Co/TheTTC US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.387
Aflac IncAFL US9:00Q4 2016 Guidance CallQ4 2016
Cigna CorpCI US9:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Xcel Energy IncXEL US9:00Investor MeetingY 2015
CBRE Group IncCBG US9:00Analyst MeetingY 2015
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US9:00Analyst & Investor DayY 2015
Michaels Cos Inc/TheMIK US9:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Skechers U.S.A. IncSKX US9:30Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2015
Kroger Co/TheKR US10:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US10:00Q4 2016 Guidance CallQ4 2016
Dollar General CorpDG US10:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Toro Co/TheTTC US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Alaska Air Group IncALK US12:00Investor DayY 2015
TECO Energy IncTE US14:00Extraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2015
Cooper Cos Inc/TheCOO US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA US17:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Cooper Cos Inc/TheCOO USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.107
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA USAft-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.051
Gap Inc/TheGPS USNovember 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Kroger Co/TheKR USQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.392
L Brands IncLB USNovember 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
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Friday, March 13, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/13

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.12% ahead of U.S. producer prices for Feb and a preliminary reading of U.S. consumer confidence for March. European stocks ae down -0.12 as energy producers fall after the price of crude oil slipped to a 6-week low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.39%, Hong Kong +0.11%, China +0.69%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia -0.61%, Singapore -0.32%, South Korea +0.76%, India -1.48%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied up to a 14-3/4 year high and China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 6-week high on receding Fed rate hike prospects after U.S. Feb retail sales unexpectedly declined for a third month. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) is down -0.55% at a 6-week low on a supply glut in the U.S. after Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude stockpiles at 448.9 million bbl, the most since EIA data started in 1982. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.57% at a 3-week low. The IEA said today that the record oil surplus in the U.S. may soon strain the nation's storage capacity and further pressure oil prices. The IEA said that the oil-storage hub in Cushing, OK, the largest in the U.S., is now 70% full. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.31%) is up +0.27%. May copper (HGK15 -0.24%) is down -0.23% as it retreated from a 1-week high on signs of ample global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +17,276 MT to 241,616 MT, a 1-3/4 year high, and LME copper inventories rose +2,825 MT to 333,575 MT, a 13-1/2 month high. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.47%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%. GBP/USD is down -0.38% at a 4-1/2 year low after UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in 14 months. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.21%) are down -7.5 ticks.
Japan Jan industrial production was revised lower to +3.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y from the originally reported +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y. Jan capacity utilization rose +3.6% m/m and matched September's increase as the largest in a year.
UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell -2.6% m/m and -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y with the -2.6% m/m decline the biggest monthly drop in 14 months and the -3.1% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 22 months.
The German Feb wholesale price index rose +0.5% m/m and fell -2.1% y/y with the +0.5% m/m gain the biggest monthly increase in 17 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s preliminary-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a small +0.1 point increase to 95.5, stabilizing after Feb’s fairly sharp -2.7 point decline to 95.4. Today’s Feb final-demand PPI index is expected to match January’s report of unchanged y/y and the core PPI is expected to match Jan’s report of +1.6% y/y. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Ocwen Financial Corp (consensus $0.35). There are no equity conferences today.





OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Intel (INTC -4.73%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
Genesco (GCO -7.79%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
Children's Place (PLCE +8.81%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to drop 4.9% in 2015, compared to a previous forecast of 3.3%, reports DigiTimes, according to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
Piper Jaffray said February video game software sales rose 7% y/y and maintains its 'Overweight' ratings on Activision Blizzard (ATVI -0.09%) , Electronic Arts (EA -0.05%) , GameStop (GME +0.51%) and Take-Two (TTWO +0.20%) .
General Motors (GM +1.72%) will recall approximately 64,000 2011-13 Chevrolet Volts for a software update to limit how long the car can be left idling.
Kronos Worldwide (KRO +1.76%) reported Q4 EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.
Mobileye (MBLY +0.75%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Laurene Powell Jobs Trust reported a 7.7% passive stake in Disney (DIS +4.16%) .
Ulta Salon (ULTA +2.01%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.35, higher than consensus of $1.27.
Aeropostale (ARO -6.80%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 1 cent, better than consensus of a -3 cent loss, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to a loss of -61 cents to -53 cwnts, a larger loss than consensus of -36 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.26%, Dow Jones +1.47%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) signs that China’s monetary easing is spurring demand for loans after data showed China Feb aggregate financing, China’s broadest measure of new credit, rose 1.35 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan, (2) a rally in bank stocks after 29 U.S. banks passed Fed stress tests, and (3) reduced interest rate hike concerns after Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month as they declined -0.6% and -0.1% ex autos, weaker than expectations of +0.5% and +0.3% ex autos.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday rose to a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +7.00, FVM5 +5.75. The main bullish factor was the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes. T-notes fell back from their best levels on weak demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 30-year T-bond auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.18, below the 12-auction average of 2.45 and the lowest in 10 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.111 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0050 (-0.47%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower: Dollar index -0.360 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.00876 (+0.83%), USD/JPY -0.159 (-0.13%). Bearish factors included the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which fueled long liquidation in the dollar, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on reduced Greek default concerns after the ECB increased the Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greek banks by 600 million euros.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) this morning is down -26 cents (-0.55%) at a 6-week low and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.0103 (-0.57%) at a 3-week low. Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower with Apr crude at a 5-week low and Apr gasoline at a 3-week low: CLJ5 -1.12 (-2.33), RBJ5 -0.0253 (-1.39%). Bearish factors included (1) abundant supplies as Wednesday’s EIA data showed EIA crude inventories rose +4.51 million bbl to 448.9 million bbl, the highest since EIA data began in 1982, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which signals economic weakness.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/13/2015
US0830 ETFeb PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and unch y/y, Jan -0.8% m/m and unch y/y. Feb PPI final demand ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
1000 ETPreliminary-Mar U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) expected +0.1 to 95.5, Feb -2.7 to 95.4.
JPN0030 ETRevised Japan Jan industrial production, previous +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
0030 ETJapan Jan capacity utilization, Dec +2.0% m/m.
GER0300 ETGerman Feb wholesale price index, Jan -2.6% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
UK0530 ETUK Jan construction output expected +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.4% m/m and +5.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Ocwen Financial CorpOCN USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.349
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Tuesday, February 10, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/10

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.64%) this morning are up +0.18% and European stocks are up +0.60% on speculation Greece and its international creditors will work toward an agreement on Greece's debt financing. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is set to hold talks on Wednesday at an emergency meeting with Eurozone finance ministers in Brussels. According to an unnamed official representing the creditors, Greece has shifted toward a more cooperative tone in recent conversations with the troika. Two other troika officials said Greece may be given more time to present its complete proposals for a permanent arrangement if Greek Prime Minister Tsipras accepts he needs a new program and commits not to reverse the most important overhauls of the previous bailout agreement. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.33%, Hong Kong +0.03%, China +1.82%, Taiwan -0.30%, Australia -0.25%, Singapore +0.47%, South Korea -0.64%, India +0.45%. Chinese stocks closed higher on speculation that disinflation concerns will afford the government more room to ease monetary policy after China Jan CPI rose at the slowest pace in 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.02%) is down -1.21% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -0.29%) is down -0.65%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.51%) is down -0.39%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.71%) is down -1.88%. Agriculture prices are lower ahead of the USDA's Feb WASDE crop production report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) is up +0.39%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.42%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.27%) are down -7.5 ticks at a 1-week low ahead of the Treasury's $24 billion 3-year auction later today.
China Jan CPI rose at an +0.8% y/y pace, less than expectations of +1.0% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 5 years. Jan PPI fell at a -4.3% y/y pace, a steeper drop than expectations of -3.8% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/4 years.
UK Jan BRC sales like-for like rose +0.2% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% y/y.
UK Dec industrial production fell -0.2% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1% m/m. On an annual basis, Dec industrial production rose +0.5% y/y, right on expectations.
UK Dec manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y, better than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
The Japan Dec tertiary industry index unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and matched the July 2014 decline as the largest decrease in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Dec JOLTS job openings report is expected to show an +18,000 increase to 4.990 million, thus extending November’s sharp +142,000 increase to a 13-3/4 year high 4.972 million. The Treasury today will sell $24 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are 18 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Coca-Cola Co (consensus $0.42), Martin Marietta Materials (0.82), Rengeneron (2.82), Wyndham (0.84), Molson Coors (0.69), CVS Health (1.20), Genworth Financial (-0.19).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Stifel, Nicolaus Technology, Internet & Media Conference on Mon-Tue, BIO CEO & Investor Conference on Tue, Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum on Tue-Wed, Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, Aviation Festival Asia on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, Leerink Swann Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Risk Management Conference on Wed-Thu, BB&T Capital Markets Transportation Services Conference on Wed-Thu, and Morgan Stanley Chemicals Corporate Access Day on Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT -0.60%) reported Q4 EPS of 97 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
Reynolds American (RAI -0.80%) reported Q4 EPS of 87 cents, right on consensus.
Regeneron Pharmaeuticals (REGN -1.75%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.79, below consensus of $2.82.
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN -1.27%) reported Q4 EPS of 90 cents, higher than consensus of 84 cents.
Molson Coors Brewing (TAP -1.06%) reported Q4 EPS of 55 cents, below consensus of 69 cents.
Bank of NY Mellon reported 7.72% passive stake in Dun & Bradstreet (DNB -1.78%) .
Crown Holdings (CCK -0.72%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 48 cents, right on consensus.
Pembroke Management reported a 6.83% passive stake in Healthstream (HSTM -0.49%) and a 7.85% passive stake in Franklin Covey (FC -1.60%) .
Molina Healthcare (MOH -2.36%) reported Q4 EPS of 69 cents, higher than consensus of 61 cents.
Franklin Resources reported a 5.7% passive stake in Sensient (SXT -5.61%) .
Aeropostale (ARO +5.18%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $594.5 million, better than consensus of $577.67 million, and then raised guidance on Q4 EPS to a loss of -1 cent to -6 cents, better than consensus of -27 cents.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.44%) rose over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $1.01 billion, above consensus of $997.69 million.
The Gap (GPS -1.65%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported January same-store-sales were down 3% versus positive 1% last year.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.64%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.18%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.42%, Dow Jones -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.30%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on Greek default concerns after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras vowed to negotiate an end to his country’s austerity measures, and (2) concerns about a global economic slowdown after China Jan exports unexpectedly fell -3.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.9% y/y and the lowest in 10 months.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.27%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks at a 1-week low. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -3.50, FVH5 -3.25. Bearish factors included (1) negative carry-over from Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Jan payrolls report that brings the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) supply pressures with the Treasury set to auction $64 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in the week’s Feb quarterly refunding.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) this morning is up +0.367 (+0.39%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0048 (-0.42%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32 (+0.27%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower: Dollar index -0.249 (-0.26%), EUR/USD +0.0014 (+0.12%), USD/JPY -0.486 (-0.41%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which recovered from a 1-week low and closed higher after Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence rose to a 9-month high, and (2) comments from Treasury Secretary Lew that fueled long liquidation in the dollar when he said that the strength of the dollar will be discussed at the G-20 meeting currently underway in Istanbul.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.02%) this morning is down -64 cents (-1.21%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -0.29%) is down -0.0103 (-0.65%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Monday closed higher: CLH5 +1.17 (+2.26%), RBH5 +0.0147 (+0.94%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) carry-over support from Friday’s data from Baker Hughes that showed operating U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Feb 6 fell to a 3-1/4 year low of 1,140, and (3) the ongoing strike by the United Steelworkers union, which represents employees at more than 200 refineries and 10% of U.S. refining output, which may lead to reduced gasoline and distillate output.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/10/2015
US0815 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economy at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina.
1000 ETDec wholesale inventories expected +0.1% m/m, Nov +0.8% m/m. Dec wholesale trade sales, Nov -0.3% m/m.
1000 ETDec JOLTS job openings expected +18,000 to 4.990 million, Nov +142,000 to 4.972 million.
1200 ETUSDA Feb WASDE crop production.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion 3-year T-notes.
EUR0400 ETECB Chief Economist and Bank of Portugal Governor Peter Praet and ECB Governing Council member Carlos Costa speak at a conference in Lisbon on Financial Stability and Macro-Prudential Policy.
UK0430 ETUK Dec industrial production expected -0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec manufacturing production expected -0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Nov +0.7% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/10/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.821
Omnicom Group IncOMC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.254
PG&E CorpPCG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.66
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals IncREGN USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.816
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.844
Coca-Cola Co/TheKO USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.421
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.688
HCP IncHCP USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.77
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.755
Reynolds American IncRAI USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.869
CVS Health CorpCVS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.203
Sealed Air CorpSEE US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.474
Dun & Bradstreet Corp/TheDNB US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Omnicom Group IncOMC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals IncREGN US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Wyndham Worldwide CorpWYN US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Sealed Air CorpSEE US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
CVS Health CorpCVS US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Reynolds American IncRAI US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Coca-Cola Co/TheKO US9:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT US10:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
PG&E CorpPCG US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
HCP IncHCP US12:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US13:00Q4 2014 Earnings Call - Follow-up SessionC4 2014
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM US14:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.339
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Cerner CorpCERN US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.936
FMC Technologies IncFTI USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.785
Genworth Financial IncGNW USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2014-0.194
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.633
Cerner CorpCERN USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.467
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Thursday, December 4, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.06% and European stocks are up +0.44% at a 2-1/2 month high ahead of the conclusion of the ECB meeting and comments from ECB President Draghi that may shed clues on the possibility the ECB expands asset purchases to include government bonds. As expected, the BOE at the conclusion of its 2-day policy meeting maintained its 0.50% benchmark interest rate and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.94%, Hong Kong +1.72%, China +4.61%, Taiwan +0.54%, Australia +0.88%, Singapore +0.04%, South Korea +0.96%, India +0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rose as the rally in USD/JPY to a 7-1/3 year high boosts the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index surged over 4% to a 3-1/2 year high spurred on by an influx of money from Chinese investors who have opened stock accounts at the fastest pace in 3 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.50%) is unchanged. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.30%) is up +0.05%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.39%) is down -0.53%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.84%) is up +0.89%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.03% at a new 5-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01% at a new 2-1/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a new 7-1/3 year high after the Nikkei and Yomiuri newspapers reported that Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party will boost its majority at the Dec 14 election, which will give Abe a mandate to continue his reflationary, yen-negative, fiscal policies. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.02%) are up +1 tick.
The German Nov Markit construction PMI rose +2.0 to 53.5, the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months.
UK Nov Halifax house prices rose +0.4% m/m and +8.2% 3-mon/year-over-year, more than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial claims series is expected to show a -18,000 decline, reversing most of last week’s +21,000 increase to 313,000. The market is expecting today’s initial unemployment claims report to show a small +2,000 increase to 2.318 million following last week’s decline of -17,000 to the 14-year low of 2.316 million. There are 6 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kroger (consensus $0.61), Sears (-3.31), Dollar General (0.80), Toro (0.15), Cooper Companies (2.03), Ulta Salon (0.84), SandRidge Energy (0.04). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CSX (CSX +2.19%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Wal-Mart (WMT -1.69%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Gentex (GNTX +2.26%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Sears Holdings (SHLD +0.91%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -$5.15, a much bigger loss than one estimate of -$3.31.
Royal Caribbean (RCL +1.39%) will replace Bemis (BMS +0.27%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
Costco (COST -0.26%) reported net sales of $9.43 billion for the month of November up +7% y/y.
Dollar General (DG -0.86%) reported Q3 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 80 cents.
Pfizer (PFE +0.57%) reported positive results from PROFILE 1014 study of anaplastic lymphoma kinase inhibitor XALKORI in previously untreated patients with ALK-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer.
Synopsys (SNPS -0.30%) reported Q4 EPS of 64 cents, higher than consensus of 61 cents.
Avago (AVGO +3.18%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.99, well above consensus of $1.68.
Disney (DIS -0.39%) increased its annual dividend by 29 cents or 34% to $1.15 per share.
PVH Corp. (PVH +2.12%) slid nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $2.56, better than consensus of $2.48, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPs view to $7.25-$7.30 from $7.30-$7.40, below consensus of $7.37.
Guess (GES +1.28%) reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.00-$1.10 from $1.05-$1.20, at the lower end of consensus of $1.10.
Aeropostale (ARO +3.91%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -45 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to a loss of -37 cents to -44 cents, a larger loss than consensus of -36 cents.
BHP Billiton (BHP +1.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Rio Tinto (RIO +2.25%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +1.25 points (+0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday rose to a fresh all-time high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.16%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European equities on speculation ECB President Draghi may announce additional stimulus measures when he speaks on Thursday, and (2) the +2.2 point increase in the U.S. Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 57.5. Gains were limited after the Nov ADP employment change increased by +208,000, weaker than expectations of +222,000.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.02%) this morning are up +1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: TYH5 -2.00, FVH5 -2.75. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected +2.2 point increase in the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, which could push the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.029 (+0.03%) at a new 5-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%) at a new 2-1/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.11%) at a fresh 7-1/3 year high. The dollar index on Wednesday soared to a 5-1/2 year high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.309 (+0.35%), EUR/USD -0.00719 (-0.58%), USD/JPY +0.582 (+0.49%). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, which bolsters the case for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-1/4 year low after the Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI was revised lower to its slowest pace of expansion in 16 months, and (3) the rally in USD/JPY to a 7-1/3 year high on expectations for the BOJ to expand stimulus while the Fed stands pat.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.50%) this morning is unchanged and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.30%) is up +0.0009 (+0.05%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Closes: CLF5 +0.50 (+0.75%), RBF5 -0.0046 (-0.25%). Supportive factors included (1) the unexpected -3.69 million bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories, versus expectations of +1.75 million bbl, and (2) the -694,000 bbl draw in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, the first decline in 4 weeks. Bearish factors included (1) the +2.14 million bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles, more than expectations of +1.5 million bbl, and (2) the rally in the dollar index to a 5-1/2 year high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2014
US0730 ETNov Challenger job cuts, Oct +11.9% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -18,000 to 295,000, previous +21,000 to 313,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.318 million, previous -17,000 to 2.316 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0830 ETCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Office of Financial Research 2014 Financial Stability Conference in Washington D.C.
1100 ETTreasury announces the amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Dec 9-11.
UK0700 ETBOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
EUR0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Kroger Co/TheKR USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.614
Sears Holdings CorpSHLD US6:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2015-3.31
Sears Holdings CorpSHLD US6:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Dollar General CorpDG US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.797
L Brands IncLB US7:30November 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Toro Co/TheTTC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.153
Humana IncHUM US9:00Investor DayY 2014
PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Kroger Co/TheKR US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Dollar General CorpDG US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Toro Co/TheTTC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Starbucks CorpSBUX US11:00Investor DayY 2014
Alaska Air Group IncALK US12:00Investor DayY 2014
United Rentals IncURI US12:30Investor and Analyst DayY 2014
Airgas IncARG US13:30Analyst MeetingY 2014
Landstar System IncLSTR US14:00Q4 2014 Guidance CallQ4 2014
Cooper Cos Inc/TheCOO US16:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.031
Cooper Cos Inc/TheCOO US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA US17:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.838
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - ChicagoY 2014
Gap Inc/TheGPS USNovember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
L Brands IncLB USNovember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Rite Aid CorpRAD USNovember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USNovember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Myriad Genetics IncMYGN USAnnual General Meeting
SandRidge Energy IncSD USQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.041
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