MORNING CALL 10/2

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 36 minutes ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.17%) this morning are up +0.16% at a new record nearest-futures high on signs of strength in Chinese manufacturing activity that is positive for global economic growth after the China Sep manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.7 to 52.4, the fastest pace of expansion in 5-1/3 years. European stocks fell back from a 4-month high and are down -0.05% on rising tensions in Spain after a violence-marred vote in Catalonia spurred the regional government there to press for independence from Spain. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.22%, Taiwan +0.78%, Australia +0.84%, Singapore +1.31%. Hong Long, China, South Korea and India all closed for holiday. Japanese stocks closed higher on increased economic optimism after the Japan Q3 Tankan showed business conditions among large manufacturers rose to the highest in 10-years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.51%) is up +0.52%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.57%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.09%) are down -3 ticks at a new 2-1/2 month low.

The China Sep manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.7 to 52.4, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 51.6 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5-1/3 years.

The Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 58.1 from the originally reported 58.2, still the highest since the data series began in 2014.

The Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business condition rose +5 to 22, stronger than expectations of +1 to 18 and a 10-year high.

ECB Governing Council member Georghadji said a pickup in inflation is "still largely dependent on the ECB's accommodative monetary policy stance and that only a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation would warrant the gradual withdrawal of our exceptional degree of monetary policy accommodation."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) revised-Sep U.S. Markit manufacturing (expected unchanged at 53.0, prelim-Sep +0.2 to 53.0), (2) Sep ISM U.S. manufacturing index (expected -0.8 to 58.0, Aug +2.5 to 58.8), (3) Aug construction spending (expected +0.4%, Jul -0.6% m/m), (4) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the El Paso branch of the Dallas Fed, (5) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (6) USDA crop conditions and progress report.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Whiting Petroleum (consensus -$0.20).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: PDL Community Bankcorp (PDLB).

Equity conferences this week: ADAS & Autonomous Vehicles USA Conference on Mon, Capital Link New York Maritime Forum on Mon, Eurosurfas Conference on Mon, PDA Universe of Pre-filled Syringes and Injection Devices Confernce on Mon, Deutsche Bank U.S. Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, European Utility Week Conference on Tue, Global Gaming Conference - Panel on Tue, Helitech International Conference on Tue, NetApp Insight Investor Summit on Tue, Japan Pack Trade Show on Tue, Linley Processor Conference on Wed, Petaluma Area Chamber of Commerce Business Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Akamai (AKAM +2.18%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim Securities with a target price of $54.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK +0.97%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a target price of $169.

Citrix (CTXS +0.17%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities with a price target of $95.

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB +1.41%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Baird.

Select Comfort (SCSS +0.39%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James with a 12-month target price of $35.

PepsiCo (PEP -0.19%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jeffries.

Union Pacific (UNP unch) was downgraded to 'Equal-Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.

CSX Corp (CSX +1.06%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal weight' at Morgan Stanley who lowered their price target on the stock to $43.

Tiffany (TIF +0.92%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at HSBC with a price target of $110.

Finish Line (FINL +3.17%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna Financial.

Trinity Industries (TRN +2.31%) jumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after a federal appeals court in New Orleans overturned a 2015 ruling against TRN for a $663 million judgement that was awarded in a lawsuit the alleged the company defrauded the U.S. government with a faulty highway guardrail safety system.

TerraForm Power (TERP -0.83%) may move higher this morning after it reported Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $136 million, better than consensus of $119.7 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 +0.17%) this morning are up +4.00 ponts (+0.16%) at a new all-time nearest-futures high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.37%, Dow Jones +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.78%. The S&P 500 on Friday posted a new record high and closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the German Sep unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest since German reunification began and a sign of economic strength. U.S. stocks also received a boost from the unexpected +6.3 point increase in the Sep Chicago PMI to 65.2, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 58.7.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.09%) this morning are down -3 ticks at a fresh 2-1/2 month low. Friday's closes: TYZ7 -7.50, FVZ7 -5.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Friday closed lower on the unexpected increase in the Sep Chicago PMI report and on the rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, which curbed the safe-haven demand for T-notes. Losses were limited after the U.S. Aug core PCE deflator rose by a less than expected +1.3% y/y, the smallest year-on-year increase in 2 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.51%) this morning is up +0.48 (+0.52%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0067 (-0.57%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27 (+0.24%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.009 (-0.01%), EUR/USD +0.0028 (+0.24%), USD/JPY +0.17 (+0.15%). The dollar index on Friday closed little changed. The dollar index saw support from the report that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with former Fed Governor Warsh, who is considered more hawkish than current Fed Chair Yellen, to discuss the Fed Chair position. The dollar was also boosted by the increase in T-note yields, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials. Gains were limited after the U.S. Aug core PCE deflator rose by a less-than-expected +1.3% y/y, which was dovish for Fed policy.

Nov crude oil (CLX17 -2.03%) this morning is down -88 cents (-1.70%) and Nov gasoline (RBX17 -1.70%) is -0.0252(-1.58%). Friday's closes: Nov WTI crude +1.11 (+0.21%), Nov gasoline -0.0238 (-1.47%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were undercut by the fall in the crack spread to a 5-week low, which may curb refinery demand for crude to refine into gasoline, and by the increase in active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended Sep 29 by 6 rigs to 750, the first increase in 7 weeks. Crude oil prices were supported by the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which shows optimism in the economic outlook that is positive for energy demand.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.72%) -8.3 (-0.65%) at a 1-1/2 month low, Dec silver (SIZ17-0.46%) -0.046 (-0.28%) at a 1-3/4 month low and Dec copper (HGZ17 +0.03%) +0.002 (+0.05%). Friday's closes: Dec gold -3.9 (-0.30%), Dec silver -0.171 (-1.02%), Dec copper -0.026 (-0.87%). Metals on Friday closed lower on the the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals, and on a lack of inflation that reduces the demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the U.S. Aug core PCE deflator rose just +1.3% y/y, the smallest pace of increase in 2 years.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/02/2017

		Monday, Oct 2
US	0945 ET	Revised Sep U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI expected unchanged at 53.0, prelim-Sep +0.2 to 53.0.
	1000 ET	Sep ISM U.S. manufacturing index expected -0.8 to 58.0, Aug +2.5 to 58.8. Sep ISM new orders, Aug -0.1 to 60.3. Sep ISM employment, Aug +4.7 to 59.9. Sep ISM prices paid expected +1.5 to 63.5, Aug unch at 62.0.
	1000 ET	Aug construction spending expected +0.4%, Jul -0.6% m/m.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1400 ET	Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the El Paso branch of the Dallas Fed.
	1600 ET	USDA crop conditions and progress report.
		Tuesday, Oct 3
US	0830 ET	Fed Governor Jerome Powell discusses regulatory reform at a U.S. Financial Regulation event in Washington.
	n/a	Sep total vehicle sales expected 17.00 million, Aug 16.03 million. Sep domestic vehicle sales expected 12.68 million, Aug 12.48 million.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/02/2017

Name	Ticker	Time	Description	Period	Estimate
Whiting Petroleum Corp	WLL US		Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	-0.201
Telephone & Data Systems Inc	TDS US		Roadshow - Day 1
United States Cellular Corp	USM US		Roadshow - Day 1

Morning Call 12/7

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 5 hours ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.01%) are up +0.02% and European stocks are up +1.01% at a 7-1/4 month high on optimism the ECB will prolong QE. Expectations are for the ECB at its monthly meeting tomorrow to extend its monthly asset purchases of 80 billion euros by 6 to 9 months. Also, energy producing stocks are higher with Jan WTI crude oil (CLF17-0.55%) up +0.20% after the API reported late yesterday that U.S. oil inventories fell -2.21 million bbl last week. Market anxiety has also fallen since last month's surprise election of Donald Trump as U.S. President as the VIX volatility index dropped to a 3-1/2 month low today. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.74%, Hong Kong +0.55%, China +0.71%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +0.91%, Singapore +0.36%, South Korea +0.28%, India -0.59%. India's S&P Sensex Stock Index erased an early rally and closed down -0.59 % after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly kept the benchmark repurchase rate unch at 6.25% when expectations were for a -25 bp cut to 6.00%.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 +0.16%) are up +5.5 ticks.

German Oct industrial production rose +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +1.6% y/y.

UK Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -9.4% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index -16.2%), (2) Oct JOLTS job openings (expected +14,000 to 5.500 million, Sep +33,000 to 5.486 million), (3) Oct consumer credit (expected +$18.3 billion, Sep +$19.292 billion), (4) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Costco (consensus $1.19), John Wiley (0.66), Brown-Forman (0.50), Casey's General Stores (1.57), H&R Block (-0.68), lululemon athletica (0.43), Orbital ATK (1.39).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Collplant Holdings (CQPTD).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Pipeline, MLP and Utility Symposium on Wed, Citi Global Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Wed-Thu, Bernstein Consumer Summit on Wed-Thu, Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, ACI European Biopolymer Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Discover Financial Services (DFS +1.38%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Wedbush with a 12-month target price of $78.

Best Buy (BBY +0.23%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Loop Capital with a price target of $58.

ABIOMED (ABMD +2.72%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month target price of $150.

MasterCard (MA -1.50%) gained almost 1% in after-hours trading after it boosted its quarterly dividend to 22 cents a share from 19 cents, and then approved a $4 billion stock buyback program, effective upon completion of a previous program that has $1.3 billion remaining.

Western Digital (WDC +2.83%) rallied over 5% in after-hours trading after it renewed a royalty-bearing cross licensing agreement with Samsung through 2024, and then raised guidance on Q2 adjusted EPS to $2.10-$2.15 from an October 26 view of $1.85-$1.95.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY -1.70%) jumped 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 25 cents, well above consensus of 14 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2017 comparable store sales to up +3.1%-3.6% from a prior view of +2.25%-3.25%.

Bluebird Bio (BLUE +9.42%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it proposed a $200 million stock offering.

HealthEquity (HQY -2.76%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 10 cents, below consensus of 12 cents.

AeroVironment (AVAV +2.66%) tumbled nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q2 loss per share of -18cents, a much bigger loss than expectations of -1 cent, and then said it sees a Q3 loss per share of -34 cents to -38 cents, more than consensus of -24 cents.

Ensco PLC (ESV +4.55%) declined over 6% in after-hours trading after it started a private placement of $650 million senior notes due 2014.

Sigma Designs (SIGM +1.31%) sank over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it expects Q4 revenue of $42 million-$45 million, weaker than consensus of $57.4 million.

TerraForm Power (TERP +1.83%) slid nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees completing the rest of its 2016 filings and regaining full compliance by March.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.02%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.34%, Dow Jones +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.22%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks to a 3-week high on expectations that the ECB this Thursday will extend QE past March of next year. Stocks were also boosted by the +2.7% increase in U.S. Oct factory orders, stronger than expectations of +2.6% and the biggest increase in 16 months. Stocks were undercut by the U.S. Oct trade deficit of -$42.6 billion, which was wider than expectations of -$42.0 billion and was negative for Q4 GDP. There was also weakness in energy producer stocks as crude oil prices fell -1.70%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 +0.16%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYH7 unch, FVH7 +1.00. Mar 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed little changed. T-notes were boosted by the the wider-than-expected U.S. Oct trade deficit, which was negative for Q4 GDP. T-notes were also boosted by the slide in crude oil prices, which undercut inflation expectations. T-note prices were undercut by the +2.7% increase in U.S. Oct factory orders, their biggest increase in 16 months.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is +0.0006 (+0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is -0.05 (-0.04%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar index +0.400 (+0.40%), EUR/USD -0.0046 (-0.43%), USD/JPY +0.17 (+0.15%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on the stronger than expected U.S. Oct factory orders report and by weakness in EUR/USD on expectations that the ECB on Thursday will announce an extension of QE beyond March of 2017.

Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF17 -0.55%) this morning are up +10 cent s(+0.20%) and Jan gasoline (RBF17 -0.18%) is +0.0064 (+0.42%). Tuesday's closes: Jan crude -0.88 (-1.70%), Jan gasoline -0.0158 (-1.01%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower on a stronger dollar and on news that OPEC Nov crude production rose by +200,000 bpd to a record 34.160 million bpd.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/07/2016

		Wednesday, Dec 7
US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.4% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index -16.2%.
	1000 ET	Oct JOLTS job openings expected +14,000 to 5.500 million, Sep +33,000 to 5.486 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1500 ET	Oct consumer credit expected +$18.3 billion, Sep +$19.292 billion.
		Thursday, Dec 8
US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -13,000 to 255,000, previous +17,000 to 268,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -33,000 to 2.048 million, previous +38,000 to 2.081 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $23 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $15 billion) to be auctioned Dec 12-13.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/07/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	8:00	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 2017	0.498
Starbucks Corp	SBUX US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2016
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	8:00	Roadshow	Y 2016
Xerox Corp	XRX US	9:00	Investor Conference	Y 2016
Brown-Forman Corp	BF/B US	10:00	Q2 2017 Earnings Call	Q2 2017
Lowe's Cos Inc	LOW US	10:00	Analyst & Investor Conference	Y 2016
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q2 2017 Earnings Call	Q2 2017
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	17:00	Q1 2017 Earnings Call	Q1 2017
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 2017	-0.675
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2017 Earnings Release	Q1 2017	1.187
Baker Hughes Inc	BHI US		November 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Rig Counts	2016
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting	Y 2016

MORNING CALL 11/23

MORNING CALL

Monday, November 23rd, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) are down -0.14% and European stocks are down -0.36% after weekend comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams that there's a "strong case" for a Fed rate hike next month sparked a sell-off in commodity prices. Crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) is down-1.74%, which undercut energy and raw material producers, while the price of copper (HGZ15 -1.44%) dropped -1.95% to a fresh 6-1/2 year low, which also pressured mining stocks with Freeport McMoRan and BHP Billiton both down nearly 2%. U.S. stock futures rebounded from their worst levels on increased M&A activity after Pfizer and Allergan announced that they will merge in a deal valued at over $150 billion. Losses in European stocks were contained after the Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI expanded at its fastest pace in 4-1/2 years. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.39%, China -0.56%, Taiwan +0.24%, Australia +0.39%, Singapore -0.49%, South Korea +0.46%, India -0.19%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.30% at a 7-1/4 month high after comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams bolstered the case for a Fed rate hike next month. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20% at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.21%) are down -7 ticks.

San Francisco Fed President Williams said there's a "strong case" for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December assuming U.S. economic data continues to be encouraging.

The Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI rose +0.5 to 54.4, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37), (2) preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI (expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1), (3) Oct existing home sales (expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million), and (4) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion 2-year T-notes.

There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.88), Jacobs Engineering (0.77), GameStop (0.59), Mallinckrodt (1.76), Copart (0.43), Brocade Communications (0.24), Palo Alto Networks (0.32).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Adnina Acquisition Corp II (ANDAU).

Equity conferences this week include: J.P. Morgan Asia Rising Dragons One-on-One Forum on Mon-Tue, INTERGAS VII Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals Conference & Exhibition on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Freeport McMoRan (FCX -1.90%) and Royal Gold (RGLD -2.99%) are both down nearly 2% in pre-market trading as metals prices plunged in early trade on Monday, with Dec copper falling to a fresh 6-1/2 year low.

Tyson Foods (TSN -1.82%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, below consensus of 88 cents.

Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG -12.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT.

Novartis (NVS -0.25%) was cut to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Vontobel.

Kellog (K -0.33%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $76.

Allergan Plc (AGN +3.45%) is up over 5% in pre-market trading on speculation that Pfizer may acknowledge, as soon as today, a deal that it will acquire the company in an agreement worth more than $150 billion.

Panerea Bread (PNRA +0.20%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 12-month price target of $210.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ +1.96%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Maxim Group with a 2-month price target of $17.

Peabody Energy (BTU -4.65%) will sell New Mexico and Colorado coal assets for $358 million to Bowie Resource Partners LLC, which will also assume $105 million in liabilities.

Novacure (NVCR -1.65%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Phase 3 data showed brain cancer patients who were treated with its Tumor Treating Fields therapy lived longer than patients who received chemotherapy alone.

TerraForm Power (TERP +9.65%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after BlueMountain Capital raised its stake in the company to 10.1% from 7.3%.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.01%) this morning are down -3.00 points (-0.14%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.67%. The S&P 500 on Friday posted a 2-week high and closed higher on ECB President Draghi's indication that the ECB may expand stimulus when it meets next month when he said the ECB will do what's necessary to raise inflation "as quickly as possible." In addition, there were upbeat comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that U.S. financial conditions have improved and the probability for a hard landing in China's economy has not risen.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ5 -3.50, FVZ5 -1.75. Dec T-notes on Friday rallied to a 2-week high but erased their gains and closed lower. T-note prices were undercut by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes were also undercut by the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.302 (+0.30%) at a 7-1/4 month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.20%) at a 7-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37 (+0.30%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.576 (+0.58%), EUR/USD -0.0088 (-0.82%), USD/JPY -0.06(-0.05%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's comment that the probabilities of an end to zero interest rates in the U.S. "have increased." In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD sparked by ECB President Draghi's suggestion that the ECB will expand QE at the Dec 3 ECB meeting when he said that policy makers will do what they must to raise inflation "as quickly as possible."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +0.62%) this morning is down -73 cents (-1.74%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 +1.59%) is down -0.0025 (-0.20%). Friday's closes: CLF6 +0.18 (+0.43%), RBF6 -0.0008 (-0.06%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled mixed. Metals were boosted by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and by expectations for U.S. oil production to fall after Baker Hughes reported that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 10 rigs in the week ended Nov 20 to a 5-1/3 year low of 564 rigs. Crude prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and the ongoing crude oil supply glut with U.S. crude supplies over 100 million bbl above the seasonal 5-year average.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/23/2015

US	0830 ET	Oct Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.45 to 0.08, Sep +0.02 to -0.37.
	0945 ET	Preliminary Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 54.0, Oct +1.0 to 54.1.
	1000 ET	Oct existing home sales expected -2.7% to 5.40 million, Sep +4.7% to 5.55 million.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
	1500 ET	USDA Oct Cold Storage.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
GER	0330 ET	German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 52.0, Oct 52.1. Nov Markit services PMI expected -0.1 to 54.4, Oct 54.5.
EUR	0400 ET	Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.3. Nov Markit composite PMI expected +0.1 to 54.0, Oct 53.9.
JPN	2035 ET	Japan Nov Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Oct 52.4.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/23/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.772
GameStop Corp	GME US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.593
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.763
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.881
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	9:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc	JEC US	11:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	11:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Copart Inc	CPRT US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.426
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.244
Palo Alto Networks Inc	PANW US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.318
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	17:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015