Showing posts with label HUN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HUN. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

MORNING CALL 3/2

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) are down -0.28% as they follow crude oil prices lower, although European stocks are up +0.39% at a 1-month high as miners and commodity producers rallied and led the overall market higher after the price of copper jumped to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude oil is down -1.95% after data late yesterday from API showed U.S. crude inventories surged +9.9 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +4.11%, Hong Kong +3.07%, China +4.26%, Taiwan +0.69%, Australia +2.01%, Singapore +1.66%, South Korea +1.70%, India +1.95%. Chinese stocks rallied on speculation the government will announce measures to boost growth at legislative meetings that begin Saturday. China's National People's Congress will begin a 2-week meeting starting March 5 where delegates will sign off on a new 5-year economic plan. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 3-week high as exporter stocks rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against eh dollar, which improves earnings prospects of exporters
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32% at a 2-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.12%) are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead." which increases the chance of a Fed rate hike at the Mar 15-16 FOMC meeting.
In a telephone interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Williams said "he doesn't see any signs in the data of any slackening of domestic demand" and that the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead" and push inflation back to target as positive U.S. domestic demand outweighs weakness from abroad.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%), (2) Feb ADP employment change (expected +188,000, Jan +205,000), (3) Feb New York ISM (Jan -7.4 to 54.6), (4) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA, and (5) Fed Beige Book.
There are 2 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Costco Wholesale (consensus $1.28), Brown-Forman (0.94).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX).
Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Technology Conference on Mon-Thu, Pacific Crest Securities Emerging Technology Summit on Tue-Wed, UBS Natural Gas & Electric Utilities Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Refining Conference on Thu, Citi Asset Management, Broker Dealer & Exchanges Investor Conference on Thu, Gabelli & Company Waste & Environmental Services Conference on Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu-Fri.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Dollar Tree (DLTR +2.22%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
Amazon.com (AMZN +4.80%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at BMO with a price target of $700.
Weatherford International PLC (WFT -3.28%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it announced an offering of 80 million shares of common stock.
Ross Stores (ROST +2.27%) gained almost 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 66 cents, higher than consensus of 64 cents.
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +4.73%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $1.84 billion, weaker than consensus of $1.88 billion, and then lowered guidance in Q3 EPS to 10 cents-14 cents, below consensus of 19 cents.
Veeva Systems (VEEV +3.25%) dropped over 2% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 54 cents-56 cents, below consensus of 57 cents.
Bob Evans Farms BOBE reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 62 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents.
NeoPhotonics (NPTN +5.75%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, better than consensus of 10 cents.
Chuy's Holdings (CHUY +2.34%) climbed over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, higher than consensus of 13 cents.
Guidewire Software (GWRE +2.62%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 64 cents-71 cents from a prior view of 57 cents-66 cents, above consensus of 64 cents.
Darling Ingredients (DAR +1.44%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 pro forma adjusted Ebitda of $103.1 million, above estimates of $97.1 million.
Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV -2.99%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance for Q1 EPS to between a net -5 cent loss to a 2 cent profit, below consensus of a 6 cent profit.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) this morning are down -5.50 points (-0.28%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +2.39%, Dow Jones +2.11%, Nasdaq +3.15%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rose to a 1-3/4 month high and closed sharply higher on the strong U.S. economic reports, which included the +1.3 point increase in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing index to 49.5 (stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 48.5) and the +1.5% jump in U.S Jan construction spending (stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest increase in 8 months). Stocks were undercut by the -0.4 point decline in the China Feb manufacturing PMI to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.12%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -29.50, FVM6 -16.00. Jun T-notes on Tuesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on strength in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 1-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.101 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0013 (-0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.32%) at a 2-week high. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.141 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00051 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +1.32 (+1.17%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 4-week high and settled higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which may accelerate a Fed rate hike. In addition, EUR/USD slumped to a 1-month low on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus at next week's policy meeting.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 -1.37%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.95%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.61%) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 +0.65 (+1.93%), RBJ6 -0.0202 (-1.53%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by the rally in global stocks and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which were positive for energy demand. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and by expectations for U.S. crude supplies to increase by +2.75 million bbl in Wednesday's EIA inventory report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/02/2016
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%.
0815 ETFeb ADP employment change expected +188,000, Jan +205,000.
0945 ETFeb New York ISM, Jan -7.4 to 54.6.
1000 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ETFed Beige Book.
UK0430 ETUK Feb Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.5 to 55.5, Jan 55.0.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Jan PPI expected -1.0% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -3.0% y/y.
CHI2045 ETChina Feb Caixin composite PMI, Jan +0.7 to 50.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/02/2016

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US8:00Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.94
Huntsman CorpHUN US8:00Investor DayY 2016
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US9:00Analyst MeetingY 2016
Progressive Corp/ThePGR US9:00Investor Relations Conference Call
TransDigm Group IncTDG US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Honeywell International IncHON US10:00Investor ConferenceY 2016
Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US10:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Middleby Corp/TheMIDD US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Cerner CorpCERN US12:00Investment Community MeetingY 2016
WESCO International IncWCC US13:00Investor DayY 2016
Target CorpTGT US14:30Financial Community MeetingY 2016
Cable One IncCABO USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20153.33
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST US21:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.281
Helmerich & Payne IncHP USAnnual General Meeting
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USFebruary 2016 Sales and Revenue Release2016
Hologic IncHOLX USAnnual General Meeting
PTC IncPTC USAnnual General Meeting
AECOMACM USAnnual General Meeting
Mallinckrodt PLCMNK USAnnual General MeetingY 2016

Monday, September 28, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/28


OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.51%) are down -0.68% and European stocks are down -1.60%, led by weakness in mining companies as the price of copper (ZNZ15 +0.21%) slid to a 1-month low. Chinese growth concerns weighed on stocks as well after China Aug industrial profits fell by the most in 4 years. Weakness in European automakers was another negative for European stocks, led by a -6% decline in shares of Volkswagen AG, as the company remains embroiled in the emissions-cheating scandal. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -1.32%, China +0.27%, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia +1.42%, Singapore -1.44%, India -0.95%. China's Shanghai Composite erased losses of as much as 1.6% and closed higher as a rally in technology companies overshadowed data that showed industrial companies' profits fell by the most since the data began in 2011.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.18% after ECB Executive Board member Lautenschlaeger said it's "too early" to talk about expanding QE. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.43% as eh slide in stocks boosts the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.21%) are up +8.5 ticks.
ECB Executive Board member Lautenschlaeger said there are "some recovery signs" in the interbank money market and "it is too early to talk about concrete measures about broadening QE."
China Aug industrial profits were down -8.8% y/y, the largest decline since the data series began in 2011. Jan through Aug industrial profits are down -1.9%y/y to 3.77 trillion yuan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug personal spending (expected +0.3%), Aug personal income (expected 0.4%), Aug PCE deflator (expected unch m/m and +0.3% y/y), Aug PCE core deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y), (2) Aug pending home sales (expected +0.5% m/m and +7.8% y/y), (3) Sep Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +6.8 to -9.0), (4) New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on monetary policy in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, (5) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers a speech titled “A Perspective on Monetary Policy” at the Marquette University Business Leaders Forum in Milwaukee, WI, (6) San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Five of the companies in the Russell 2000 index report earnings today: Cal-Maine Foods (consensus $3.14), Vail Resorts (-1.89), Comtech Communications (0.39), Synnex (1.44), Energy XXI Ltd. (-1.25).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: BMO Capital Markets North American Real Estate Conference on Mon, Invest Japan Seminar 2015 on Mon, ESMO European Cancer Congress on Mon, Johnson Rice & Co Energy Conference on Mon-Wed, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Jefferies West Coast Electronic Payments Summit on Tue, Wolfe Research Power and Gas Leaders Conference on Tue-Wed, D. A. Davidson & Co Engineering & Construction Conference on Wed, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable Conference on Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
RBC's chief market strategist cut his 2015 S&P 500 target to 2100 from 2325 and cut his 2015 EPS target to $120 from $128 due to commodity weakness and slower global growth.
Liberty Global Plc (LBTYA -0.48%) fell 2% in pre-market trading after Vodaphone Group Plc said talks about an exchange of assets with the companies have ended.
Comcast (CMCSA -0.49%) climbed nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it said it will buy a 51% stake in USJ. Co.
Cal-Maine (CALM +0.88%) reported Q1 EPS of $2.95, weaker than consensus of $3.14.
Citigroup (C +2.89%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $62.
Alcoa (AA -1.20%) jumped over 4% in pre-market trading after the company announced that it will separate into two public companies.
Stoneridge (SRI -5.35%) was raised to 'Bu' from 'Hold' at BB&T with a price target of $14.
A large study found that Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY -2.52%) drug Opdivo extended the lives of patients with advanced kidney cancer in a Phase 3 study.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO -0.18%) won FDA approval for its once-a-day Tresiba injection for adults with type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus and also won approval for its Ryzodeg insulin drug.
Huntsman (HUN -0.86%) said that lower prices for titanium-dioxide, strength in the dollar, and "soft" demand in the Asia Pacific region will weigh on Q3 and Q4 earnings.
According to a Krebs on Security report, gift shops and restaurants at a "large number" of Hilton Hotel (HLT -0.43%) and franchise properties across the U.S. have been tied to a pattern of credit card fraud.
QLogic (QLGC -0.41%) said its board approved a restructuring plan that cuts jobs and consolidates and eliminates certain engineering activities.

MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.51%) this morning are down -13.00 points (-0.68%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.05%, Dow Jones +0.70%, Nasdaq -0.85%. The S&P 500 Friday erased an early rally and settled little changed after a slide in the biotechnology sector dragged down health-care stocks. A 1.60% fall in China's Shanghai Composite also undercut the market. Stocks had opened higher after Fed Chair Yellen said the Fed is on course to raise interest rates this year, which suggests the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle higher interest rates. Another supportive factor was the upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP to 3.9% q/q annualized from +3.7% q/q annualized as Q2 personal consumption was revised upward to +3.6% from +3.2%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.21%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ5 -9.00, FVZ5 -5.00. Dec T-notes Friday closed lower after Fed Chair Yellen said she expects the Fed to raise interest rates sometime this year. T-notes remained lower after U.S. Q2 GDP was revised higher and after the Sep University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose more than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0020 (-0.19%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52(-0.18%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.275 (+0.29%), EUR/USD -0.0035 (-0.31%), USD/JPY +0.52 (+0.43%). The dollar index rose to a 5-week high Friday on comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said she expects the Fed to raise interest rates this year and on the upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP. Also, a rally in USD/JPY to a 2-week high boosted the dollar as an early rally in stocks curbed the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Nov crude oil (CLX15 -2.01%) this morning is down -83 cents (-1.82%)and Nov gasoline (RBX15 -2.06%) is down -0.0282 (-2.04%). Friday's closes: CLX5 +0.79 (+1.76%), RBX5 +0.0214 (+1.58%). Nov crude oil and gasoline closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, which bolstered confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Energy prices also found support after U.S. Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.9% q/q annualized from +3.7% q/q annualized, which signals stronger energy consumption and demand. Gains were limited after the dollar index rose to a 5-week high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/28/2015
US0830 ETAug personal spending expected +0.3%, Jul +0.2%. Aug personal income expected +0.4%, Jul +0.4%.
0830 ETAug PCE deflator expected unch m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y. Aug PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0830 ETNew York Fed President William Dudley speaks on monetary policy in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
1000 ETAug pending home sales expected +0.4% m/m and +8.0% y/y, Jul +0.5% m/m and +7.2% y/y.
1030 ETSep Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +7.8 to -10.0, Aug -11.2 to -15.8.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1330 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers a speech titled A Perspective on Monetary Policy at the Marquette University Business Leaders Forum in Milwaukee, WI.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
1700 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook to the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
JPN0100 ETRevised Japan Jul leading index CI, previous 104.9. Revised Jul coincident index, previous 112.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/28/2015

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
FedEx CorpFDX US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
DTE Energy CoDTE US11:30Investor DayY 2015
Exelon CorpEXC USExelon Corp Final Day to Appeal Decision to Reject Proposal of Pepco Holdings
Questar CorpSTR USRoadshow - San FranciscoY 2015
United Parcel Service IncUPS USRoadshow - ParisY 2015
King Digital Entertainment PlcKING USAnnual General Meeting

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/10

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.08% and European stocks are up +0.03% on the prospects for a sustained peace in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that Russia has withdrawn more than 70% of its troops from his country. Global stocks also found support on comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang who said that his country will accelerate policy changes to promote growth. Li Keqiang added that the Chinese economy will avoid a hard-landing and that his government will ensure a medium to high growth rate as it deepens policy changes to promote business, attract foreign investment and protect intellectual property. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +0.25%, Hong Kong -1.93%, China -0.52%, Taiwan -0.82%, Australia -0.60%, Singapore -0.13%, South Korea closed for holiday, India -0.76%. Japanese stocks bucked the trend of lower Asian markets and closed higher as exporter stocks rallied on the prospects for improved earnings after the yen slumped to a fresh 5-3/4 year low against the dollar. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.42%) is up +0.09%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.14%) is up +0.18%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.36%) is up +0.50%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.24%) is down -0.18%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed although Oct live cattle prices are up +1.00% at a new all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37% at a 5-3/4 year high after an unexpected decline in Japanese producer prices last month bolstered expectations for the BOJ to expand stimulus. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -4 ticks at a 1-month low.
Japan Aug PPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, less than expectations of unch m/m and the biggest drop in 22 months. On an annual basis, Aug PPI rose +3.9% y/y, less than expectations of +4.1% y/y.
Japan Jul machine orders rose +3.5% m/m, less than expectations of +4.0% m/m. On an annual basis, Jul machine orders rose +1.1% y/y, double expectations of +0.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Mortgage activity should get a small boost from low U.S. mortgage rates. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There are no Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: (consensus: n/a).
Equity conferences the rest of this week include: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Mon-Wed, Deutsche Bank dbAccess Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Market Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Best of Americas Conference on Tue-Thu, Latin Markets Mexico Energy Summit on Wed, Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference on Wed, Longbow Research - Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference on Wed-Fri, UBS Global Paper & Forest Products Conference on Thu, BIO Latin America Conference on Thu, and Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Huntsman (HUN -1.43%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
eBay (EBAY -2.77%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.
L Brands (LB -0.72%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Tiffany (TIF -0.92%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Hartford Financial (HIG -0.49%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at FBR Capital.
Twitter (TWTR -2.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn raised his stake in Gannett (GCI -3.11%) to 8.48% from 6.63%.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.46%) fell nearly 3% in after-hour trading after the company said that Q3 Same-Store-Ssales thus far are low single-digit negative.
Lazard Asset Management reported a 7.05% passive stake in Orbitz (OWW -1.21%) .
SAIC (SAIC -0.50%) reported Q2 EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 68 cents.
Piper Jaffray believes Apple's (AAPL -0.38%) new product launches met expectations and keeps its 'Overweight' rating on Apple with a $120 price target.
Pershing Square Capital Management reported a 9.7% stake in Allergan (AGN -0.49%) and sent a letter to Allergan's Board of Directors.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.04%) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 Index on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.65%, Dow Jones -0.57%, Nasdaq -0.82%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected -2,000 decline in Jul JOLTS job openings, less than expectations for a +29,000 increase, and (2) long liquidation spurred on by interest rate concerns after a San Francisco Fed research paper stated that investors may be underestimating how quickly the Fed could raise interest rates.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a fresh 1-month low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell to a 1-month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) a San Francisco Fed research paper that stated investors are underestimating how quickly the Fed may hike interest rates, and (2) supply pressures ahead of today's $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes and tomorrow's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds. Closes: TYZ4 -9.50, FVZ4 -7.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.147 (-0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0013 (+0.10%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.39 (+0.37%) at a new 5-3/4 year high. The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 14-month high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) a San Francisco Fed research paper that stated the markets may be underestimating the pace of Fed rate increases, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY surged to a 5-3/4 year high on divergent monetary policies between the Fed, which is cutting stimulus and may soon raise interest rates and the BOJ, which is seen expanding stimulus to boost Japanese growth and combat deflation risks. Closes: Dollar index +0.046 (+0.05%), EUR/USD +0.0043 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.173 (+0.16%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.42%) this morning is up +8 cents (+0.09%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.14%) is up +0.0045 (+0.18%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday settled mixed: CLV4 +0.09 (+0.10%), RBV4 -0.0169 (-0.66%). Crude found support on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA inventory data will show crude supplies fell -1.5 million bbl, the fourth consecutive decline. Negative factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 14-month high, and (2) increased oil output in Libya after Libya's state-run National Oil Corp. said Libyan oil production rose to 747,000 bpd on Sep 8 from 700,000 bpd on Sep 1.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/10/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.2% with purchase sub-index -1.5% and the refi sub-index +1.4%.
1000 ETJul wholesale inventories expected +0.5% m/m, Jun +0.3% m/m. Jul wholesale trade sales expected +0.6% m/m, Jun +0.2% m/m.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
UK1901 ETUK Aug RICS house price balance expected 47%, Jul 49%.
JPN1950 ETJapan Q3 BSI large all-industry business conditions, Q2 -14.6. Q3 BSI large manufacturing business conditions, Q2 -13.9.
CHI2130 ETChina Aug CPI expected +2.2% y/y, Jul +2.3% y/y. Aug PPI expected -1.1% y/y, Jul -0.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/10/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
General Electric CoGE US9:00Investor Meeting - Oil & GasY 2014
B/E Aerospace IncBEAV US9:00Annual General Meeting
Legg Mason IncLM US12:00Investor DayY 2014
Charles Schwab Corp/TheSCHW USAugust 2014 Sales and Revenue Release - Activity Report2014

Thursday, March 6, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/6



Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Barchart Morning Call 9/17

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.10%) this morning are down -0.13% and European stocks are down -0.34%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.65%, Hong Kong -0.31%, China -2.06%, Taiwan -0.07%, Australia +0.06%, Singapore +0.05%, South Korea -0.49%, India +0.31%. Asian stocks slid after foreign direct investment in China trailed estimates, while U.S. stocks fell back ahead of the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting later today. European stocks failed to garner much support from the jump in German investor confidence to a 3-1/3 year high. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV13 -0.20%) is down -0.39% at a 2-week low and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.04%) is down -0.10% at a 5-week low. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.30%) is up +0.09% and Dec copper (HGZ13 unch) is down -0.02%. Agricultural prices are higher and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) is down -0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.19% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unch. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.18%) are up +9 ticks.
The German Sep ZEW survey of expectations of economic growth rose +7.0 from Aug to 49.6, stronger than expectations of +3.0 to 45.0 and the highest in 3-1/3 years. The Sep ZEW survey current situation rose +12.3 from Aug to 30.6, stronger than expectations of +1.7 to 20.0 and the highest in 15-months.
UK Aug PPI input prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +2.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y. Aug PPI output prices rose +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, smaller increases than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y. Aug PPI output core prices were unchanged m/m and +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
UK Aug CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y, close to expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Aug core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +2.1% y/y. The Aug RPI rose +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y, bigger increases than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y. Aug RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y.
China Aug foreign direct investment rose +0.6% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +12.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The FOMC today begins its 2-day meeting. The FOMC will announce its decision tomorrow and Fed Chairman Bernanke will give a news conference tomorrow as well. The market consensus is that the FOMC tomorrow will announce a $10 billion cut in its $85 billion per month QE3 program to $75 billion. Today’s Aug CPI report is expected to ease to +1.6% y/y from +2.0% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the Aug core CPI is expected to edge higher to +1.8% y/y from +1.7% in July. Today’s Sep NAHB housing market index is expected to show a small -1 point decline to 58, reversing part of the +3 point increase to August’s 7-3/4 year high of 59. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: FactSet (consensus $1.19) and Adobe Systems (0.34).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Morgan Stanley Industrials & Autos Conference on Mon-Wed, Capital Link Global Commodities Energy Freight Forum on Tue, Home Delivery World 2013 on Tue, Citi Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Science Conference on Tue-Thu, BMO Capital Markets North American Real Estate Conference on Wed, Jefferies Advanced Analytics & Big Data Intelligence Summit on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities-Utility Corporate Access Day on Wed, 28th International Aluminum Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Houston Energy Symposium on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Global Mining & Steel Conference on Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities- Industrials Corporate Access Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
ConAgra (CAG +0.66%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Overweight" at JPMorgan.
Kellogg (K +0.56%) was downgraded to "Underweight" from "Neutral" at JPMorgan.
US Airways (LCC +1.12%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL +3.03%) were both pgraded to "Overweight" from "Neutral" at JPMorgan.
Verizon (VZ +1.13%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform" at RBC Capital.
The WSJ report that JPMorgan (JPM +1.05%) is expected to pay $800 million in 'London Whale' fines.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB +0.60%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Goldman.
Huntsman (HUN -0.67%) will acquire Rockwood (ROC +0.94%) TiO2 business for $1.1 billion.
Chico's FAS (CHS +1.98%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at KeyBanc.
Altria Group (MO +0.83%) raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.57-$2.62 from $2.51-$2.56, well above consensus of $2.39.
Pandora (P unch) filed to sell 14 million shares of common stock.
Outerwall (OUTR -2.32%) plunged over 17% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $4.72-$5.12 from $5.76-$6.26, well below consensus of $5.91.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.10%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Monday gapped up to a 1-1/4 month high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) former Treasury Secretary Summers’ withdrawal from consideration as the next Fed Chairman, which bolstered speculation that Janet Yellen will get the job and she will maintain the Fed’s easy monetary policies and be less aggressive in tapering QE3, and (2) reduced threats of an imminent U.S. military attack on Syria after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed on a framework for locating and destroying Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons. Closes: S&P 500 +0.57%, Dow Jones +0.77%, Nasdaq 100 -0.30%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.18%) this morning are up +9 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday gapped up to a 1-month high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2-week low on speculation that Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen will be the next Fed chairman and will withdraw stimulus more slowly than former Treasury Secretary Summers would have done. Other bullish factors include (1) the unexpected decline in the Sep Empire manufacturing index (-1.9 to 6.3), and (2) the smaller-than-expected +0.4% in Aug industrial production (vs expectations of +0.5%). Closes: TYZ3 +13.50, FVZ3 +12.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) this morning is down -0.144 (-0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0026 (+0.19%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unch. The dollar index on Monday dropped to a 2-week low and closed lower on former Treasury Secretary Summers’ rejection of consideration of the Fed chairmanship. Mr. Summers famously questioned the efficacy of quantitative easing and probably would have ended QE3 faster than Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen. Closes: Dollar index -0.157 (-0.19%), EUR/USD +.00356 (+0.27%), USD/JPY -0.319 (-0.32%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 -0.20%) this morning is down -42 cents (-0.39%) at a 2-week low and Oct gasoline (RBV13 +0.04%) is down -0.0026 (-0.10%) at a 5-week low. Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Oct crude at a 2-week low. The main bearish factor for crude prices was the reduced threat of an imminent U.S. attack on Syria after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov over the weekend agreed on a framework for locating and destroying Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons by mid-2014. Crude prices climbed from their worst levels after the dollar index fell to a 2-week low and the S&P 500 rallied to a 1-1/4 month high. Closes: CLV3 -1.62 (-1.50%), RBV3 -0.0530 (-1.91%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/17/2013
US0815 ETU.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew speaks at the Economic Club of Washington on The state of the U.S. economy and the need for Washington to avoid self-inflicted wounds that could impede economic growth.
0830 ETAug CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, July +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Aug CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, July +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
1000 ETSep NAHB housing market index expected -1 to 58, Aug +3 to 59.
1000 ETCBO releases federal budget outlook.
1030 ETFOMC begins 2-day meeting.
1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
EUR0200 ETEurozone Aug new car registrations, July -5.6%.
0500 ETEurozone July trade balance expected +15.0 billion euros, Jun +14.9 billion euros.
UK0430 ETUK Aug PPI input prices expected +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, July +1.1% m/m and +5.0% y/y. Aug PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, July +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y. Aug PPI core output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, July +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
0430 ETUK Aug CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y, July unch m/m and +2.8% y/y. Aug core CPI expected +2.1% y/y, July +2.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK Aug RPI expected +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y, July unch m/m and +3.1% y/y. Aug RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +3.2% y/y, July +3.2% y/y.
GER0500 ETGerman Sep ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected +3.0 to 45.0, Aug 42.0. Sep ZEW survey current situation expected +1.7 to 20.0. Aug 18.3.
CHI2130 ETChina Aug property prices.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/17/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
FactSet Research Systems IncFDS USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.19
BioMarin Pharmaceutical IncBMRN US8:00Research and Development DayY 2013
Laredo Petroleum Holdings IncLPI US8:30Investor MeetingY 2013
Cummins IncCMI US9:00Analyst DayY 2013
Reliance Steel & Aluminum CoRS US9:30Analyst & Investor DayY 2013
Adobe Systems IncADBE USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.337