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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Morning Call 9/28

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 41 minutes ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down slightly by -0.06% as they consolidate Wednesday's rally to a new all-time high. Losses were limited as energy stocks rose with the price of Nov WTI crude oil (CLX17 +1.04%) up +1.02% to a 5-1/2 month high. European stocks are up +0.19% at a 3-month high on optimism in the European economic outlook after Eurozone Sep economic confidence rose a more-than-expected +1.1 to 113.0, a 10-1/4 year high. Global bond markets sold-off for a second day with 10-year German bunds at a 1-3/4 month low and U.S. 10-year T-notes at a 2-1/2 month low on optimism in the global economic outlook along with expectations for another Fed interest rate hike this year. Expectations for another Fed rate increase this year has also undercut gold prices with Dec COMEX gold (GCZ17-0.04%) down -0.05% to a new 1-month low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.47%, Hong Kong -0.80%, Chia -0.17%, Taiwan -0.29%, Australia +0.11%, Singapore -0.28%, South Korea +0.01%, India +0.39%. Wednesday's slump in the yen helped boost Japanese exporter stocks and lead the Nikkei Stock Index higher after USD/JPY climbed to a 2-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.28%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.11%) are down -6 ticks at a 2-1/2 month low on expectations for a Dec Fed rate hike after Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed should raise interest rates" in a regular and gradual" because a tight labor market risks overheating the economy.

ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said "a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed in the euro area for underlying inflationary pressures to gradually build up."

Boston Fed President Rosengren said "I believe policy makers should not overreact to low current inflation readings that are widely expected to be temporary" and that the Fed should raise interest rates" in a regular and gradual" because a tight labor market risks overheating the economy.

Eurozone Sep economic confidence rose +1.1 to 113.0, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 112.0 and a 10-1/4 year high.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +11,000 to 270,000, previous -23,000 to 259,000) and continuing claims (expected +13,000 to 1.993 million, previous +44,000 to 1.980 million), (2) revised Q2 GDP (expected unrevised at 3.0% q/q annualized), (3) Aug wholesale inventories (expected +0.4%, Jul +0.6% m/m), (4) Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed, (5) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks at the BOE Independence Conference in London on ‘Developments in Central Banking,’ (6) Sep Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (expected -2 to 14, Aug +6 to 16), (7) Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year T-notes, (8) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) speaks on a Webcast about careers leveraging economics, (9) USDA weekly Export Sales, (10) USDA Q3 Hogs & Pigs Inventory.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Accenture (consensus $1.46), Vail Resorts (-1.81), McCormick (1.03), Rite Aid (-0.01), Conagra Brands (0.40).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Wolfe Research Conference on Tue-Thu, LEERINK Partners Rare Disease & Immuno-Oncology Conference on Wed-Thu, B. Riley Consumer Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM -1.08%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.

Vail Resorts (MTN +1.36%) may open lower this morning after it reported a Q4 Ebitda loss of -$50.4 million, wider than consensus of -$46.6 million, and then said it sees full-year Ebitda of $652 million-$682 million, the midpoint weaker than consensus of $670.1 million.

McCormick (MKC -0.85%) may move higher this morning after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.12, better than expectations of $1.03, and then said it sees full-year adjusted EPS of $4.20-$4.24, above consensus of $4.07.

Thor Industries (THO +2.35%) climbed nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS from continuing operations of $2.26, well above consensus of $1.96.

Jabil (JBL +3.56%) lost almost 1% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 core EPS 65 cents-91 cents, the midpoint below consensus of 83 cents.

Progress Software (PRGS +1.15%) gained 2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year adjusted EPS of $182-$1.85, higher than consensus of $1.80.

Chubb Ltd (CB +0.21%) said its insured losses for Hurricane Harvey are estimated at $650 million pretax, or $520 million after tax, and that losses from Hurricane Irma are estimated at $800 million-$950 million pretax, or $640 million-$750 million after tax.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT -1.32%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after its Freestyle Libre Flash Glucose Monitoring System received FDA approval.

DexCom (DXCM -0.66%) lost 13% in after-hours trading after competitor, Abbott Laboratories, won FDA approval for its Freestyle Libre Flash Glucose Monitoring System.

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL +4.77%) dropped over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 net sales of $147.8 million, below consensus of $150.8 million, and said it sees full-year revenue of $550 million-$575 million, the midpoint below consensus of $564.8 million.

Evertec (EVTC -3.86%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a 12-month target price of $18.

Pandora (P -1.34%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after it priced 7 million shares of its common stock in a secondary public offering.

Pier 1 Imports (PIR +3.21%) dropped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it said it cut its full-year net sales estimate to 0% to up +2% from a prior view of +2% to +3%, and lowered its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to 38 cents-48 cents from a previous view of 46 cents-52 cents, the midpoint below consensus of 47 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 -0.07%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.06%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.41%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.96%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday rose to a new record high and closed higher on the U.S. Aug durable goods orders report of +1.7% (stronger than expectations of +1.0%) and optimism about the Republican's tax cut plan that includes a cut in the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% and the immediate expensing of capital spending. Stocks were undercut by the weaker-than-expected U.S. Aug pending home sales report of -2.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 7 months.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.11%) this morning are down -6 ticks to a fresh 2-1/2 month low. Wednesday's closes: TYZ7 -18.00, FVZ7 -8.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday fell to a 2-1/2 month nearest-futures low and closed lower on concern about a larger deficit from the Republican tax cut plan and on increased inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 4-1/4 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.116 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0033 (+0.28%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is down -0.16 (-0.14%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.395 (+0.42), EUR/USD -0.0048 (-0.41%), USD/JPY +0.60 (+0.53%). The dollar index on Wednesday climbed to a 1-month high and closed higher on expectations that the U.S. economy may get a boost from the Republicans' tax reform plan and on the jump in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-3/4 month high, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials. EUR/USD fell to a 5-week low and USD/JPY climbed to a 2-1/4 month high.

Nov crude oil (CLX17 +1.04%) this morning is up +53 cents (+1.02%) at a 5-1/2 month high and Nov gasoline (RBX17-0.57%) is -0.0079 (-0.49%). Wednesday's closes: Nov WTI crude +0.26 (+0.50%), Nov gasoline -0.0271 (-1.64%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 1-month high and by increased U.S. crude output after U.S. crude production in the week ended Sep 22 rose to 9.547 million bpd, a 2-year high. In addition, EIA gasoline inventories rose by +1.11 mln bbls, more than expectations of a -750,000 bbl draw. A bullish factor was the unexpected decline in EIA crude inventories which fell -1.85 million bbl versus expectations for an increase of +3.0 million bbl.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ17 -0.04%) -0.7 (-0.05%) to a new 1-month low, Dec silver (SIZ17+0.05%) +0.013 (+0.08%) and Dec copper (HGZ17 +0.24%) +0.011 (+0.36%). Wednesday's closes: Dec gold -13.9 (-1.07%), Dec silver -0.056 (-0.33%), Dec copper +0.0105 (+0.36%). Metals on Wednesday settled mixed with Dec gold at a 1-month low and Dec silver at a 1-1/4 month low. Metals prices were undercut by strength in the dollar as the dollar index rose to a 1-month high, and the rally in stocks, which curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Copper closed higher on speculation that Republican tax cut plan might boost economic growth and lead to increased industrial metals demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/28/2017

		Thursday, Sep 28
US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 270,000, previous -23,000 to 259,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +13,000 to 1.993 million, previous +44,000 to 1.980 million.
	0830 ET	Revised Q2 GDP expected +unrevised at 3.0% (q/q annualized). Q2 personal consumption expected unrevised at +3.3%. Q2 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.0%. Q2 core PCE deflator expected unrevised at +0.9% q/q.
	0830 ET	Aug wholesale inventories expected +0.4%, Jul +0.6% m/m.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0945 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George (non-voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed.
	1000 ET	Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks at the BOE Independence Conference in London on Developments in Central Banking.
	1100 ET	Sep Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected -2 to 14, Aug +6 to 16.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year T-notes.
	1330 ET	Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) speaks on a Webcast about careers leveraging economics.
	1500 ET	USDA Q3 Hogs & Pigs Inventory.
		Friday, Sep 29
US	0830 ET	Aug personal spending expected +0.1%, Jul +0.3%. Aug personal income expected +0.2%, Jul +0.4%.
	0830 ET	Aug PCE deflator expected +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Aug core PCE deflator expected +0.2% and +1.4% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
	0945 ET	Sep Chicago PMI expected -0.2 to 58.7, Aug unch at 58.9.
	1000 ET	Final-Sep University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index expected unch at 95.3, prelim-Sep -1.5 to 95.3.
	1100 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks at an event titled: The Impact on Consumers, Banking, and Regulatory Policy. Text: No Q&A.
	1200 ET	USDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/28/2017

Name	Ticker	Time	Description	Period	Estimate
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	(1.812)
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2017 Earnings Release	Q3 17	1.03
Accenture PLC	ACN US	06:59	Q4 2017 Earnings Release	Q4 17	1.463
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US	07:00	Q2 2018 Earnings Release	Q2 18	(0.013)
Conagra Brands Inc	CAG US	07:30	Q1 2018 Earnings Release	Q1 18	0.401
John Wiley & Sons Inc	JW/A US	08:00	Annual General Meeting
Aflac Inc	AFL US	08:00	Financial Analysts Briefing
McCormick & Co Inc/MD	MKC US	08:00	Q3 2017 Earnings Call	Q3 17
Accenture PLC	ACN US	08:00	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US	08:30	Q2 2018 Earnings Call	Q2 18
American Airlines Group Inc	AAL US	09:00	Investor Day
Conagra Brands Inc	CAG US	09:30	Q1 2018 Earnings Call	Q1 18
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	11:30	Q4 2017 Earnings Call	Q4 17
Ameren Corp	AEE US		Investor Meeting
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc	LW US		Annual General Meeting
Aflac Inc	AFL US		Analyst Briefing
Guidewire Software Inc	GWRE US	12:30	Analyst and Investor Meeting		https://www.barchart.com/story/news/barchart-morning-call

Thursday, January 14, 2016

MORNING CALL 1/14

MORNING CALL

Thursday, January 14th, 2016View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.23%) are down -0.08% at a 3-1/2 month low and European stocks are down -2.67% at a 13-month low on global growth concerns. As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds following the conclusion of today's monetary policy meeting. U.S. stock index futures recovered from their worst levels as JPMorgan Chase climbed over +1% in pre-market trading after it reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -2.68%, Hong Kong -0.59%, China +1.97%, Taiwan -1.04%, Australia -1.57%, Singapore -1.93%, South Korea -0.92%, India -0.33%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index dropped to a 3-1/2 month low as it followed Wednesday's losses in U.S. stocks, although China's Shanghai Composite erased early losses and recovered from a 4-1/2 month low and closed higher on signs of increased government efforts to prop up shares after state funds entered the market to buy stocks and after Chinese stock exchanges vowed to step up monitoring of share sales by companies' major shareholders.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.28%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.37%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.05%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.07%) are up +3.5 ticks on increased safe-haven demand as stocks falter along with reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate tumbled to a 3-1/2 month low.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said the forthcoming registration system for initial public offerings won't lead to an oversupply of new shares.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -2,000 to 275,000, previous -10,000 to 277,000) and continuing claims (expected -20,000 to 2.210 million, previous +25,000 to 2.230 million), (2) Dec import price index (expected -1.4% m/m and -8.4% y/y, Nov -0.4% m/m and -9.4% y/y), (3) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's speech to the Economic Club of Memphis, and (4) the Treasury's auction of $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.

There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: JP Morgan Chase (consensus $1.27), Intel (0.63), First Republic Bank (0.81).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Shimmick Constructions Co (SCCI).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: J.P. Morgan Health Care Conference on Mon-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Alcoa (AA -2.06%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM -2.75%) climbed over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, better than consensus of $1.27.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA -4.40%) dropped over 4% in pre-market trading after Automotive News reported that two dealerships alleged the company offered dealers money to falsify sales,

CSX Corp. (CSX -5.70%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets with a 12-month price target of $27.

Extra Space Storage (EXR -1.06%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it was reported that it will replace Chubb in the S&P 500 after the close of trading this Friday, January 15.

GoPro (GPRO +0.07%) slumped over 20% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $435 million, below consensus of $510.9 million, and said it will cut 7%, or about 100 employees from its workforce.

Vail Resorts (MTN -3.84%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported lift ticket revenue at its U.S. resorts was up +19% for the current season through Jan 10.

KB Home (KBH -2.95%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it will buy back up to 10 million shares.

JetBlue (JBLU -4.26%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported a +11.3% y/y increase in December traffic and a +9.5% increase in capacity, or available seat miles, to 4.6 million.

World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE -4.05%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it was reported that it will replace Wausau Paper in the S&P SmallCap 600 on the close of trading Wednesday, January 20.

Aqua America (WTR -0.95%) fell nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2016 EPS of $1.30-$1.35, below consensus of $1.36.

U.S. Concrete (USCR -3.90%) gained 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Extra Space Storage in the S&P SmallCap 600 on the close of trading this Friday, January 15.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.23%) this morning are down -1.50 (-0.08%) points at a 3-1/2 month low. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -2.50%, Dow Jones-2.21%, Nasdaq -3.48%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday slumped to a 3-1/4 month low and closed sharply lower on negative carryover from a -2.42% sell-off in the China Shanghai Composite to a 4-1/2 month low and weakness in energy producer stocks after weekly EIA data showed supplies of crude oil and refined products continue to grow. Consumer discretionary stocks were led lower by a 10% plunge in BorgWarner on disappointing 2016 sales guidance.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.07%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 +7.50, FVH6 +4.00. Mar T-Notes on Wednesday rose to a 2-1/2 month high and closed higher on the plunge in stocks, which spurred safe-haven demand buying of T-notes, and by dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said he backs an "even shallower" path for fed funds rate increases than his FOMC colleagues.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.281 (-0.28%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0040 (+0.37%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06 (+0.05%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.041 (-0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0019 (+0.17%), USD/JPY +0.03 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the cost of raising the fed funds rate too fast "far exceed" costs of removing accommodation too slowly, which signals that he is not in favor of raising interest rates anytime soon. In addition, the Fed Beige Book stated that U.S. wage pressures are subdued and overall prices pressures are minimal, which may cause the Fed to pause on additional interest rate increases.

Feb crude oil (CLG16 +1.38%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.85%) and Feb gasoline (RBG16 +2.40%) is up +0.0182 (+1.73%). Wednesday's closes: CLG6 +0.04 (+0.13%), RBG6 -0.0320 (-2.95%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed with Feb gasoline at a 6-3/4 year low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the +8.44 million bbl surge in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 10-1/2 month high and the +6.14 million bbl increase in EIA distillate stockpiles to a 5-year high of 165.5 million bbl. Crude oil prices founds support on (1) the +234,000 bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, less than expectations of +2.0 million bbl, and (2) strong Chinese demand after Chinese customs data showed China 2015 crude imports rose +8.8% y/y to a record 334 MMT.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/14/2016

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 275,000, previous -10,000 to 277,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-20,000 to 2.210 million, previous +25,000 to 2.230 million.
	0830 ET	Dec import price index expected -1.4% m/m and -8.4% y/y, Nov -0.4% m/m and -9.4% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0830 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks to the Economic Club of Memphis.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Jan 21 (previous $13 billion).
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Dec machine tool orders, Nov -17.7% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	German Dec wholesale price index, Nov -0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
UK	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/14/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US	6:45	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.27
Domino's Pizza Inc	DPZ US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2016
First Republic Bank/CA	FRC US	8:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.812
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Aqua America Inc	WTR US	9:00	Analyst Day	Y 2016
First Republic Bank/CA	FRC US	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Danaher Corp	DHR US	17:00	ITC Decision Due in Instradent vs. Danaher Corp. Patent Case
Intel Corp	INTC US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Intel Corp	INTC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.633
Best Buy Co Inc	BBY US		Sales Release

Monday, December 7, 2015

MORNING CALL 12/7

MORNING CALL

Monday, December 7th, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.20%) are up +0.14% after Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls boosted confidence that the economy is strong enough to handle an expected interest rate increase at next week's FOMC meeting. Stock index futures fell back from their best levels as energy producers declined after the price of crude oil (CLF16 -1.58%) tumbled below $40 a barrel to a 3-week low on negative carryover from last Friday when when OPEC made no pretense of any attempt to cut production and instead raised its production target to 31.5 million bpd from 30 million bpd. European stocks are up +1.58 % on speculation last week's rout in equities was overdone after ECB stimulus measures disappointed. European stocks shrugged off the weaker-than-expected German Oct industrial production and Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.99%, Hong Kong -0.15%, China +0.34%, Taiwan +0.66%, Australia +0.08%, Singapore +0.76%, South Korea -0.61%, India -0.42%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) is up +0.44%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.64%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.02%) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.

German Oct industrial production rose +0.2% m/m and was unch y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +0.7% y/y.

The Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence rose +0.6 to 15.7, less than expectations of +1.9 to 17.0.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's speech about the U.S. economy and monetary policy at Ball State University in Muncie, IN, and (2) Oct consumer credit (expected +$19.0 billion, Sep +$28.918 billion).

There are 8 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: H&R Block (consensus -$0.48).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: American Society of Hematology Meeting on Mon, Raymond James Technology and Communications Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Business Insider's Ignition Future of Digital Conference on Tue, Citi Global Technology Conference on Tue, Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paper, Packaging and Builders Conference on Wed-Thu, Capital One Financial Corp Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, 10th Annual Energy Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Vail Resorts (MTN -0.59%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -$.163, a smaller loss than consensus of -$1.75.

Polaris industries (PII -4.19%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.

Tyson Foods (TSN +1.09%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Stephens.

Philip Morris International (PM +2.70%) fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading on a report from Tass news service that a Russian senator proposes raising the smoking age in Russia to 21 from 18.

Mattress Firm (MFRM +2.06%) said it sees fiscal 2015 sales of $2.53 billion-$2.55 billion, on the low end of estimates of $2.55 billion.

New York REIT (NYRT +2.24%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after a person with knowledge of the negotiations said that SL Green SLG is close to acquiring the company.

Groupon (GRPN +0.66%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it said that its Chief Technology Officer, Sri Viswanath, resigned as of Dec 2. This follows the departure of CEO Eric Lfkofsky a month ago.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -0.73%) tumbled nearly 10% in pre-market trading after it said it sees Q4 comparable sales down 8%-11% if recent sales trends continue.

Pep Boys-Manny Moe & Jack's (PBY +3.22%) surged 12% in after-hours trading after billionaire investor Carl Icahn reported a 12% stake in the company.

Big Lots (BIG -6.32%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray.

ARM Holdings Plc (ARMH +0.55%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Northland Securities with a 12-month price target of $52.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.20%) this morning are up +3.00 points (+0.14%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +2.05%, Dow Jones +2.12%, Nasdaq +2.37%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply higher on the +211,000 increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +200,000 and the upward revision in Oct to +298,000 from +271,000, which kept the U.S. economy in a strong light.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.02%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Friday's closes: TYH6 +12.00, FVH6 +4.25. Mar T-notes on Friday recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher on the as-expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y increase in U.S. Nov avg hourly earnings, which may keep the pace of Fed tightening gradual as the data shows slack wage pressures. In addition, the wider than expected U.S. trade deficit report sparked expectations for a weaker Q4 GDP report.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.46%) this morning is up +0.428 (+0.44%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0070 (-0.64%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35 (+0.28%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.733 (+0.75%), EUR/USD -0.0059 (-0.546%), USD/JPY +0.50 (+0.41%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls, which bolsters the case for a Fed interest rate increase at the Dec 15-16 FOMC meeting, and comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker who said the Fed should raise interest rates "sooner rather than later."

Jan crude oil (CLF16 -1.58%) this morning is down -74 cents (-1.85%) at a 3-week low and Jan gasoline (RBF16 -0.94%) is down -0.0132 (-1.04%) at a 2-week low. Friday's closes: CLF6 -0.94 (-2.29%), RBF6 -0.0120 (-0.93%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed lower with Jan crude at a 2-1/2 week low and Jan gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) the failed OPEC meeting where OPEC made no pretense of any attempt to cut production and instead raised its production target.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/07/2015

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1230 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks about the U.S. economy and monetary policy at Ball State University in Muncie, IN.
	1500 ET	Oct consumer credit expected +$19.0 billion, Sep +$28.918 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Oct leading index CI expected +1.3 to 102.9, Sep 101.6. Oct coincident index expected +1.8 to 114.1, Sep 112.3.
	1850 ET	Revised Japan Q3 GDP expected +0.2% q/q annualized, previous -0.8% q/q annualized. Q3 deflator, previous +2.0% y/y.
	2330 ET	Japan Nov bankruptcies, Oct -7.25% y/y.
GER	0200 ET	German Oct industrial production expected +0.8% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Sep -1.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
EUR	0300 ET	ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio delivers opening remarks at an ECB workshop on Money Markets and Central Bank Balance Sheets.
	0430 ET	Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence expected +1.9 to 17.0, Nov 15.1.
UK	1901 ET	UK Nov BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, Oct -0.2% y/y.
CHI	n/a	China Nov trade balance expected +$64.15 billion, Oct +$61.64 billion. Nov exports expected -5.0% y/y, Oct 6.9% y/y. Nov imports expected -11.8% y/y, Oct -18.8% y/y

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/07/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Multiple Companies	PFE US	8:00	Cellectis, Pfizer and Servier UCART19 Collaboration Call
SL Green Realty Corp	SLG US	13:00	Investor Conference	Y 2015
Mallinckrodt PLC	MNK US	13:00	Investor Briefing	Y 2015
Inovalon Holdings Inc	INOV US	13:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	-0.482