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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.39%) this morning are up +0.36% and European stocks are up +0.72% after China's exports and imports rose more than expected last month, a sign the Chinese economy is stabilizing. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -1.59%, Hong Kong +0.31%, China -0.17%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia +1.07%, South Korea +0.26%, India +0.67%. Commodity prices are higher. Sep crude oil (CLU13 -0.21%) is up +0.05%, Sep gasoline (RBU13 +0.11%) is up +0.17%, Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.25%) is up +0.26%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +2.51%) is up +2.74% at a 1-3/4 month high on stronger-than-expected trade data from China, the biggest copper consumer. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher with Oct cattle up +2.41% at a 4-month high after Tyson Foods, the top U.S. meat processor, said it plans to stop buying animals fed with the feed supplement Zilmax, made by Merk & Co., after discovering lame livestock at factories. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.17% at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.17% at a 1-1/2 month high after German exports rose in July and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02% at a 1-1/2 month low after the yen strengthened when the BOJ refrained from adding additional stimulus. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.02%) are unchanged.China's July trade balance was a $17.82 billion surplus, smaller than expectations of $26.90 billion. July exports rose +5.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.0% y/y and July imports jumped +10.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
Germany's Jun trade balance was in surplus by 16.9 billion euros, more than expectations of 15.0 billion euros. Jun exports rose +0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m and Jun imports unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m increase.
The Japan July eco watchers survey current unexpectedly fell to a 6-month low of 52.3 from 53.0 in Jun, weaker than expectations of a +0.5 point increase to 53.5. The July eco watchers survey outlook was unchanged at 53.6 from Jun, also weaker than expectations of a +0.5 point increase to 54.1.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $16 billion in 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week's $72 billion Treasury coupon package. Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +9,000 to 335,000, reversing part of last week’s decline of -19,000 to 326,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small +2,000 increase to 2.953 million following last week’s decline of -52,000 to 2.951 million. There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that are scheduled to report earnings today: Scripps (consensus $1.05), Windstream (0.09), NVIDIA (0.19), Monster Beverage (0.64), CareFushion (0.56), Priceline.com (9.43), Beam (0.60), AES (0.28).Conferences during the remainder of this week include the Mitsubishi Technology Tour on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Power and Utility Conferenceon Thu, and Nasdaq Summer Analyst Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI +1.13%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.05.Windstream (WIN +0.35%) reported Q2 EPS of 8 cents, weaker than consensus of 9 cents.
CenturyLink (CTL +0.58%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, above consensus of 67 cents.
American Water (AWK +0.26%) reported Q2 EPS of 57 cents, below consensus of 61 cents.
Jack in the Box (JACK +0.27%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 41 cents, better than consensus of 38 cents, and raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS ex-items to $1.72-$1.78, above consensus of $1.65.
Arris (ARRS +2.02%) reported Q2 EPS adjusted EPS of 46 cents, well ahead of consensus of 26 cents, and said the order backlog at the end of Q2 was $534.9 million.
Mondelez (MDLZ -1.88%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, stronger than consensus of 34 cents.
Matson (MATX -1.61%) reported Q2 EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents.
RealD (RLD -2.82%) signed an exclusive 10-year deal with Mexico's Cinemex that calls for approximately 700 auditoriums across the Cinemex circuit in Mexico to be equipped with RealD 3D technology, including the removal of approximately 540 alternative 3D systems that will be replaced with RealD 3D within the next two years.
Prudential (PRU -1.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.30, stronger than consensus of $1.99.
Tesla (TSLA -5.57%) rose 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 comparable EPS of 5 cents, well ahead of consensus of a -17 cents loss.
Green Mountain (GMCR -2.53%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 82 cents, better than consensus of 77 cents, and raised its fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.19-$3.24 from $3.05-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.18.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.39%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.36%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower as heightened speculation the Fed may be nearer to cutting QE3 fueled long liquidation and profit-taking in stocks. On the positive side, 72% of the 432 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings results thus far have beaten expectations. Closes: S&P 500 -0.38%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq 100 -0.11%.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.02%) this morning are unchanged. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed higher after a slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYU3 +9.00, FVU3 +2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.136 (-0.17%) at a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.16%) at a 1-1/2 month high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02 (-0.02%) at a 1-1/2 month low. The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. EUR/USD closed higher after German Jun industrial production rose +2.4% m/m, the biggest increase in 23 months. USD/JPY dropped to a 1-1/2 month low on speculation the BOJ probably won't expand stimulus measures at its 2-day meeting that ends Thursday. Closes: Dollar index -0.316 (-0.39%), EUR/USD +0.0031 (+0.23%), USD/JPY -1.403 (-1.44%).
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU13 -0.21%) this morning is up +5 cents a barrel (+0.05%) and Sep gasoline (RBU13 +0.11%) is up +0.0049 (+0.17%). Sep crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) weekly EIA data that showed U.S. crude production rose +0.2% to 7.56 million barrels a day in the week ended Aug 2, the most in 23-1/2 years, and (2) the slide in gasoline to a 4-week low after weekly EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose +135,000 bbl, higher than expectations for a -500,000 bbl draw. Limiting declines in crude was (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 month low, and (2) the -2.245 million bbl drop in crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 16-month low of 39.874 million bbl. Closes: CLU3 -0.93 (-0.88%), RBU3 -0.0440 (-1.51%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/08/2013
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +9,000 to 335,000, previous -19,000 to 326,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.953 mln, previous -52,000 to 2.951 mln. |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds. | |
| JPN | 0030 ET | Japan July bankruptcies, Jun -8.0% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | Japan July eco watchers survey current expected 53.5, Jun 53.0, July eco watchers survey outlook expected 54.1, Jun 53.6. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Jun tertiary industry index expected -0.4%, May +1.2% m/m. | |
| n/a | BOJ announces interest rate decision. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Jun trade balance expected +15.0 billion euros, May +13.1 billion euros. Jun exports expected +0.9% m/m, May -2.0% m/m. Jun imports expected +0.5%, May +1.4% m/m. |
| CHI | 2130 ET | China July PPI expected -2.1% y/y, Jun -2.7% y/y. July CPI expected +2.8% y/y, Jun +2.7% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/08/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scripps Networks Interactive Inc | SNI US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 1.053 |
| Windstream Corp | WIN US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.088 |
| L Brands Inc | LTD US | 7:30 | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Call | 2013 | |
| Twenty-First Century Fox Inc | FOXA US | 8:00 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Windstream Corp | WIN US | 8:30 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | 9:00 | Investor Relations Conferece Call | ||
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 9:00 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Scripps Networks Interactive Inc | SNI US | 10:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | 10:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| AES Corp/VA | AES US | 10:00 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| Monster Beverage Corp | MNST US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.639 |
| CareFusion Corp | CFN US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.555 |
| priceline.com Inc | PCLN US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 9.433 |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.601 | |
| Red Hat Inc | RHT US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Ralph Lauren Corp | RL US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Gap Inc/The | GPS US | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | ||
| AES Corp/VA | AES US | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.278 | |
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | ||
| Costco Wholesale Corp | COST US | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Call | 2013 | ||
| Humana Inc | HUM US | Investor Meeting | Y 2013 | ||
| L Brands Inc | LTD US | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | ||
| McDonald's Corp | MCD US | July 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 |
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