BARCHART MORNING CALL
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.87%) this morning are down -0.59% at a 1-3/4 month low and European stocks are down -0.78% after Dallas Fed President Fisher said that the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment to avoid triggering a recession. The yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a record low of 0.279% as the ECB bought Eurozone government bonds in the second day of its quantitative easing program. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.67%, Hong Kong -0.94%, China -0.48%, Taiwan -0.28%, Australia +0.05%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea -0.40%, India -0.47%. Asian stocks fell back on China deflation concerns after China's producer prices extended a record stretch of declines to 36 months after Chine Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, the biggest decline in over 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower on a rally in the dollar. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -0.98%) is down -0.48%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.07%) is down -0.94%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.37%) is down -0.45% at a 3-month low as the dollar strengthens. May copper (HGK15 -2.38%) is down -1.85%. Agriculture prices are lower ahead of the USDA's Mar WASDE crop production report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.82%) is up +0.71% at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.84% at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.41% at a 7-1/2 year high. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.21%) are up +5 ticks.
Dallas Fed President Fisher said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment as policy makers are better off tightening monetary policy earlier and more gradually than later and more quickly. He added that "every time the Fed tightened policy after achieving full employment, it has driven the economy into recession."
China Feb CPI rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y. Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/3 years.
Japan Feb machine tool orders jumped +28.9% y/y, the seventeenth consecutive month that machine tool orders have increased.
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.87%) this morning are down -0.59% at a 1-3/4 month low and European stocks are down -0.78% after Dallas Fed President Fisher said that the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment to avoid triggering a recession. The yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a record low of 0.279% as the ECB bought Eurozone government bonds in the second day of its quantitative easing program. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.67%, Hong Kong -0.94%, China -0.48%, Taiwan -0.28%, Australia +0.05%, Singapore -0.19%, South Korea -0.40%, India -0.47%. Asian stocks fell back on China deflation concerns after China's producer prices extended a record stretch of declines to 36 months after Chine Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, the biggest decline in over 5 years. Commodity prices are mostly lower on a rally in the dollar. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -0.98%) is down -0.48%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.07%) is down -0.94%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.37%) is down -0.45% at a 3-month low as the dollar strengthens. May copper (HGK15 -2.38%) is down -1.85%. Agriculture prices are lower ahead of the USDA's Mar WASDE crop production report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.82%) is up +0.71% at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.84% at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.41% at a 7-1/2 year high. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.21%) are up +5 ticks.
Dallas Fed President Fisher said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment as policy makers are better off tightening monetary policy earlier and more gradually than later and more quickly. He added that "every time the Fed tightened policy after achieving full employment, it has driven the economy into recession."
China Feb CPI rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y. Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/3 years.
Japan Feb machine tool orders jumped +28.9% y/y, the seventeenth consecutive month that machine tool orders have increased.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan JOLTS job openings report is expected to show a +22,000 increase to 5.050 million, adding to December’s +181,000 increase to 5.028 million. The Treasury today will sell $24 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: John Wiley (consensus $0.97), VeriFone Systems (0.41).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, 11th Annual Private Banking Asia 2015 on Mon-Wed, Citigroup Asset Manager, Broker Dealer & Exchanges Conference on Tue, KBW Cards, Payments & Financial Technology Conference on Tue, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Conference on Tue, ROTH Growth Stock Conference on Tue, Susquehanna Chemical Conference, Keefe Bruyette & Woods Cards Payments & Financial Technology Symposium on Tue, Piper Jaffray Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Agricole Global High Yield Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs TMT Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed, Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Peabody Coal (BTU -0.78%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.AutoZone (AZO +0.88%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus.
NVIDIA (NVDA +0.27%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -0.69%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Qihoo 360 (QIHU -1.88%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 71 cents.
Skyworks (SWKS +1.50%) will replace PetSmart (PETM +0.06%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Wednesday.
Mindray Medical (MR -1.90%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of 49 cents, less than consensus of 52 cents.
Guggenheim Partners reported a 10.9% stake in Merge Healthcare (MRGE -9.19%) .
Illumina (ILMN -0.04%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $240.
OrbiMed reported a 13.57% passive stake in Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP +2.57%) .
Titan Machinery (TITN -5.90%) slid over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary a Q4 ex-items EPS loss of -18 cents to -23 cents, well below consensus of 9 cents. The company also said it will reduce its workforce by 14%.
United Natural Foods (UNFI +2.18%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 65 cents, below consensus of 67 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 revenue to $8.19 billion-$8.29 billion, less than consensus of $8.33 billion.
Casey's General Stores (CASY +3.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.01, well above consensus of 82 cents.
Qualcomm (QCOM +1.69%) authorized a repurchase of $15 billion in common stock.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.59%) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 58 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.87%) this morning are down -12.25 points (-0.59%) at a 1-3/4 month low. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.39%, Dow Jones +0.78%, Nasdaq +0.31%. Bullish factors included (1) increased M&A activity after Simon Property Group offered to buy Macerich for $22.4 billion and after Alcoa bought RTI International Metals for $1.26 billion, and (2) strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied.Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.21%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +11.50, FVM5 +7.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds which rose to a 1-week high as the ECB began its QE program, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after the yield on the 10-year Greek bond rose to a 2-week high of 10.06% on revived Greek debt concerns when European officials said Greece’s latest proposals were “far” from complete.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.82%) this morning is up +0.696 *+0.71%) at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0091 (-0.84%) at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.50 (+0.41%) at a 7-1/2 year high. The dollar index on Monday posted an 11-1/2 year high but fell back and closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.027 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00069 (+0.06%), USD/JPY +0.357 (+0.30%). Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb payrolls report, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 11-1/2 year low as the ECB began its QE program. EUR/USD recovered from an 11-1/2 year low and closed higher after the Eurozone Mar Sentix investor confidence rose more than expected to a 7-1/2 year high.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -0.98%) this morning is down -24 cents (-0.48%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -1.07%) is down -0.0176 (-0.94%). Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed: CLJ5 +0.39 (+0.79%), RBJ5 -0.0054 (-0.29%). Supportive factors included (1) Genscape’s forecast that Wednesday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point for WTI futures, rose at a slower pace in the week ended Mar 6 than the prior week’s increase of +536,000 bbl, and (2) strength in stocks. A bearish factor was the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 year high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/10/2015
| US | 1000 ET | Jan wholesale inventories expected -0.1% m/m, Dec +0.1% m/m. Jan wholesale trade sales expected -0.5%, Dec -0.4% m/m. |
| 1000 ET | Jan JOLTS job openings expected +22,000 to 5.050 million, Dec +181,000 to 5.028 million. | |
| 1200 ET | USDA Mar WASDE crop production. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $24 billion 3-year T-notes. | |
| JPN | 0200 ET | Japan Feb machine tool orders, Jan +20.4% y/y. |
| 1950 ET | Japan Feb PPI expected unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, Jan -1.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Jan machine orders expected -4.0% m/m and -1.0% y/y, Dec +8.3% m/m and +11.4% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/10/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actavis plc | ACT US | 4:30 | Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote | Y 2015 | |
| John Wiley & Sons Inc | JW/A US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.97 |
| Bemis Co Inc | BMS US | 9:00 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| Whole Foods Market Inc | WFM US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Chevron Corp | CVX US | 10:00 | Analyst Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| John Wiley & Sons Inc | JW/A US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Allergan Inc/United States | AGN US | 13:00 | Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote | Y 2015 | |
| Landstar System Inc | LSTR US | 14:00 | Q1 2015 Guidance Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Xilinx Inc | XLNX US | 15:00 | Investor & Analyst Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY US | 16:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Adobe Systems Inc | ADBE US | 17:00 | Analyst Briefing | Y 2015 | |
| VeriFone Systems Inc | PAY US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.409 |
| Energen Corp | EGN US | Investment Community Meeting - Day 2 | Y 2015 | ||
| Joy Global Inc | JOY US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Toll Brothers Inc | TOL US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Apple Inc | AAPL US | Annual General Meeting |
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