MORNING CALL 2/16

MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) are up +1.20% at a 1-week high, led by a rally in energy producers, with ConocoPhilips and Marathon Oil up at least 2% in pre-market trading as crude oil gains +0.95%. A rally in bank stocks is also pushing stock index futures higher with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all up over 1% in pre-market trading. European stocks are down -0.28%, led by weakness in commodity producers, as Anglo American Plc dropped over 6% after the company said it would sell more mines and raise its debt-reduction target following a fourth year of losses. European stocks were also undercut after German Feb ZEW expectations of economic growth fell to the lowest in 16 months. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.20%, Hong Kong +1.08%, China +3.29%, Taiwan +1.80%, Australia +1.37%, Singapore +1.41%, South Korea +1.37%, India -1.54%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Chinese data showed a record jump in new credit last month. Also, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday that China will take decisive actions if needed amid recent global economic headwinds and slumping equity markets.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) is up +0.69%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.21%) are down -4.5 ticks.

The German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -9.2 to 1.0, stronger than expectations of -10.2 to 0, but still the lowest in 16 months.

China Jan new yuan loans surged by a record 2.51 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.90 trillion yuan. Jan aggregate financing, the broadest measure of new credit, jumped a record +3.42 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +2.20 trillion yuan.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb Empire manufacturing index (expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37), (2) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker's speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delaware’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship, and (3) Feb NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60).

There are 14 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Agilent Technologies (consensus $0.43), Genuine Parts (1.01), Hormel Foods (0.36), Pulbic Storage (2.42), FirstEnergy (0.57).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Investor Conference on Tue.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

ADT Corp. (ADT +1.90%) surged over 40% in pre-market trading after it agreed to be purchased by Apollo Global affiliates for $6.9 billion or $42 a share.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX +13.09%) jumped almost 8% in pre-market trading after it agreed to sell an additional stake n one of its biggest mines to Sumitomo Metal Mining for $1 billion.

Goldman Sachs (GS +3.87%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.

Hormel Foods (HRL -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 43 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.

Flowers Foods (FLO -6.54%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

AutoZone (AZO +2.37%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Wedbush.

Peabody Energy (BTU +2.97%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets.

EMC Corp. (EMC -0.12%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Baupost Group LLC Holdings reported that it purchased 29.2 million shares in the company.

USG Corp. (USG +7.05%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after Appaloosa Management LP Holdings said it sold its stake in USG.

Groupon (GRPN +29.02%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after BABA reported a 5.6% stake in the company.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP +8.38%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after Perry Corporation Holdings and Appaloosa Management LP Holdings reported new stakes in the company.

Waterstone Financial (WSBF +0.81%) CFO Allan Hosack will resign effective March 1 and Mark Gerke was named interim CFO.

Anworth Mortgage (ANH +0.24%) reported Q4 core EPS of 15 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.41%) this morning are up +22.25 points (+1.20%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: S&P 500 +1.95%, Dow Jones +2.00%, Nasdaq +1.44%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply higher on stronger-than-expected U.S. Jan retail sales (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unchanged ex autos), and after New York Fed President Dudley said that key sectors of the U.S. economy "seem to be in good shape." Another bullish factor for stocks was the sharp 12% rally in crude oil which supported gains in energy stocks.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.21%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH6 -31.00, FVH6 -15.75. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower after U.S. Jan retail sales rose more than expected (+0.2% and +0.1% ex autos vs. expectations of +0.1% and unch ex autos), and after stocks rallied sharply, which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.65%) this morning is up +0.662 (+0.69%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0003 (+0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.55(-0.48%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.378 (+0.40%), EUR/USD -0.0067 (-0.59%), USD/JPY +0.83 (+0.74%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on strength in U.S. Jan retail sales along with weakness in EUR/USD after Dec industrial production unexpectedly fell by the most in 16 months (-1.0% m/m vs. expectations of +0.3% m/m).

Mar WTI crude (CLH16 +2.24%) this morning is up +28 cents (+0.95%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -0.57%) is down -0.0148 (-1.42%). Friday's closes: CLH6 +3.23 (+12.32%), RBH6 +0.0914 (+9.71%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday settled sharply higher on short-covering after U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that oil "prices are not appropriate" and that producers are ready to work together and won't make production cuts unless there is complete cooperation. Energy prices strengthened further after data from Baker Hughes showed that active U.S. oil rigs fell by 28 in the week ended Feb 12 to 439, a 6-year low.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/16/2016

US	0830 ET	Feb Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +9.37 to -10.00, Jan -13.16 to -19.37.
	0830 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker delivers a speech on the 2016 economic forecast at the University of Delawares Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.
	1000 ET	Feb NAHB housing market index expected unch at 60, Jan unch at 60.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Jan new car registrations, Dec +16.6% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jan CPI expected -0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y. Jan core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Dec +1.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan RPI expected -0.6% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Jan RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.4% y/y, Dec +1.3% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan PPI input prices expected -1.3% m/m and -8.7% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -10.8% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jan PPI output prices expected -0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and -1.2% y/y. Jan PPI output core expected +0.1% m/m and unch y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Dec ONS house prices, Nov +7.7% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -10.2 to 0, Jan 10.2. Feb ZEW survey current situation expected -4.7to 55.0, Jan 59.7.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Dec machine orders expected +4.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Nov -14.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/16/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
TEGNA Inc	TGNA US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.457
Genuine Parts Co	GPC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.013
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.348
Zoetis Inc	ZTS US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.385
Baxalta Inc	BXLT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.555
Public Storage	PSA US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.421
Vornado Realty Trust	VNO US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.303
Cerner Corp	CERN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.568
Express Scripts Holding Co	ESRX US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.556
FirstEnergy Corp	FE US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.568
Devon Energy Corp	DVN US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.707
Agilent Technologies Inc	A US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.433
FMC Technologies Inc	FTI US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.483
Cimarex Energy Co	XEC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	-0.221

Baxalta - Chart of the Day

Baxalta (BXLT) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The pharmaceutical company has a Trend spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 40.70+ and gained 32.25% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Baxalta (BXLT),  I found the pharmaceutical stock by looking  at the 52 week high list on Barchart, then sorting the stocks by highest technical buy signals.  Next I used the Flipchart feature to review the stocks.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 1/14 the stock gained 2.22%.

Baxalta Incorporated is a biopharmaceutical company which is engaged in developing, manufacturing and commercializing transformative therapies to treat orphan and under served disease conditions in hematology, immunology and oncology. Baxalta Incorporated is based in Deerfield, United States.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 6 new highs and up 6.09% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 61.28%
• Technical support level at 40.61
• Recently traded at 41.62 with a 50 day moving average of 37.66

Fundamental factors:

• Market Cap $28.12 billion
• Dividend yield .69%
• Revenue expected to grow 1.00% this year and another 7.60% next year
• Earnings estimate to increase 25.50% this year, an additional 6.30% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 5.18% for the next 5 years
• Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy 3 buy and 2 hold recommendations on the stock

None of the normal trading strategies have been reliable for this stock, so I'd use a trailing stop loss to protect your gains.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, June 30th, 2015View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

E-mail:

You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.52%) are up +0.51% and European stocks are down -0.25% at a 1-1/2 week low as the markets attempt to stabilize following Monday's sell-off. European stocks recovered from their lows after an official said European Commission President Juncker set out details to Greece on how it can still reach an accord with creditors. Greek banks and the Athens Stock Exchange remain closed and it is unlikely that Greece will make a $1.7 billion payment due to the IMF today. After midnight, Greece will also no longer be formally under the protection of the European bailout program. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.63%, Hong Kong +1.09%, China +5.53%, Taiwan +0.94%, Australia +0.67%, Singapore +1.13%, South Korea +0.40%, India +0.49%.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.57%) is up +0.60%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.06%) is up +0.97%. Metals prices are lower. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.55%) is down -0.51%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.12%) is down -1.04%. Agricultural prices are mixed.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) is up +0.47%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.53%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12% at a fresh 1-month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.11%) are down -3 ticks.
All eyes will be on the ECB if Greece is unable to pay its $1.7 billion debt payment due to the IMF by midnight tonight. The ECB has already pumped 89 billion euros of Emergency Liquidity Assistance into Greece and ECB may withdraw its lifeline to Greece's banks if it misses the IMF debt payment. ECB Executive Board member Coeure told the Les Echos newspaper that "Greece's exit from the Eurozone, which was a theoretical point, can unfortunately no longer be excluded."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun Milwaukee ISM (May was -0.38 to 47.70), (2) Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.80% m/m and +5.50% y/y after March's +0.95% m/m and +5.04% y/y), (3) June Chicago PMI (expected +3.8 to 50.0 after May's -6.1 to 46.2), and (4) June U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (expected +2.0 to 97.4 after May's +1.1 to 95.4).
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: ConAgra Foods (consensus $0.59).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: LoanCore Realty Trust (LCRT), ConforMIS (CFMS), Teladoc (TDOC), Ardelyx (ARDX), NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY).
Equity conferences this week include: Nasdaq Investor Program Conference on Tue

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

J.B. Hunt (JBHT -0.92%) will replace Integrys Energy (TEG -1.43%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Baxalta (BXLT) will replace QEP Resources (QEP -1.18%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
CoreLogic (CLGX -3.54%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Stephens.
Sysco (SYY -2.16%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Jamex reported a 9.5% passive stake in Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGP -2.63%) .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -5.26%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after KitGuru reported that Microsoft is interested in buying the chipmaker.
Springleaf (LEAF -3.66%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Guggenheim witha price target of $56.
Tallgrass Energy (TEP -1.77%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $56.
PG&E (PCG -0.74%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho witha price target of $56.
Boot Barn (BOOT -3.22%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at B. Riley with a price target of $35.
Blue Ridge Capital reported an 8.32% passive stake in Fitbit (FIT -4.23%) .
Apollo Education (APOL -4.95%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 53 cents, better than consensus of 47 cents.
CHC Group (HELI -8.33%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -55 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -44 cents.
Juno ({=JUNO surged over 50% in after-hours trading after the company announced a 10-year immunotherapy collaboration with Celgene (CELG -2.55%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.52%) this morning are up +10.50 points (+0.51%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow Jones -1.95%, Nasdaq -2.33%. The S&P 500 on Monday tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low and closed sharply lower on the Greek crisis and fears of contagion. Stocks received some underlying support from the 25 bp rate cut by the Chinese central bank on Saturday, which was an attempt to boost the Chinese economy and halt the 20% plunge in the Chinese stock market.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.11%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 +1-06/32, FVU5 +20.75. Sep T-notes on Monday jumped to a 3-1/2 week high on increased safe-haven demand with the Greek crisis and the sharp sell-off in U.S. and European stocks, along with ideas that the Fed may need to delay its rate hike due to the Greek crisis.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) this morning is up +0.445 (+0.47%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0060 (-0.53%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.12%) at a 1-month low. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.682 (-0.71%), EUR/USD +0.00699 (+0.63%), USD/JPY -1.351 (-1.09%). The dollar index fell back from a 3-week high and closed lower despite safe-haven demand tied to the Greek crisis. EUR/USD rallied back from heavy losses on talk that the ECB may front-load its QE program to provide liquidity to European financial markets and prevent contagion of the Greece debt crisis throughout Europe.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.57%) this morning is up +35 cents (+0.60%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.06%) is up +0.00194 (+0.97%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -1.30 (-2.18%), RBQ5 -0.0237 (-1.17%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower with Aug crude at a 3-week low as the Greek crisis suggested weaker energy demand in Europe. Crude oil prices were also undercut by positive comments by EU foreign policy chief Mogherini, who said that diplomats are "close to a deal" to curb Iran's nuclear program, which may lead to an increase in Iranian crude exports if economic sanctions against Iran are reduced.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/30/2015

US	0900 ET	Jun Milwaukee ISM, May -0.38 to 47.70.
	0900 ET	Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +5.50% y/y, Mar +0.95% m/m and +5.04% y/y.
	0945 ET	Jun Chicago PMI expected +3.8 to 50.0, May -6.1 to 46.2.
	1000 ET	Jun consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +2.0 to 97.4, May +1.1 to 95.4.
	1200 ET	USDA Q2 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan May vehicle production, Apr -7.5% y/y
	0100 ET	Japan May construction orders, Apr -12.1% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan May housing starts expected +5.5% y/y to 915,000 annualized, Apr +0.4% y/y to 913,000 annualized.
	1950 ET	Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected unch at 12, Q1 unch at 12.
	2135 ET	Revised Japan Jun Markit manufacturing PMI.
GER	0200 ET	German May retail sales expected unch m/m and +2.8% y/y, Apr +1.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
	0355 ET	German Jun unemployment change expected -5,000, May -6,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.4%.
UK	0430 ET	Revised UK Q1 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +2.5% y/y, previous +0.3% q/q and +2.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.4% 3-mo/3-mo.
	0430 ET	UK Jun Lloyds business barometer, May 55.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jun CPI estimate expected +0.2% y/y, May +0.3% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, May +0.9% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone May unemployment rate expected unch at 11.1%,
CHI	2100 ET	China Jun manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 50.4, May 50.2. Jun non-manufacturing PMI, May 53.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/30/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.59
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd	ENH US	9:30	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2015
Energizer Holdings Inc	ENR US	Aft-mkt	Energizer Holdings Inc. Replaces Harsco Corp. in S&P MidCap 400
Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc	ISIS US	17:10	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	19:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Apple Inc	AAPL US		Apple's Debut of Apple Music" Streaming Service"
Brookdale Senior Living Inc	BKD US		Annual General Meeting