Thursday, February 6, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/6

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +0.50% and European stocks are up +1.12% ahead of the results of the ECB's policy meeting. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.18%, Hong Kong +0.72%, China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.56%, Australia +1.20%, Singapore +0.95%, South Korea +1.02%, India +0.25%. Emerging-market stocks stabilized and a rally in the Turkish lira has led emerging-market currencies higher ahead of an expected dovish stance by ECB President Draghi at his press conference later today. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) is up +0.54%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.62%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.49%) is up +0.33%. March copper (HGH14 +0.50%) is up +0.60%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.10% after German Dec factory orders unexpectedly declined. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.
German Dec factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase, and on an annual basis Dec factory orders rose +6.0% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +7.2% y/y.
UK Jan Halifax house prices rose +1.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y, slightly higher than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +7.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -13,000 to 335,000, reversing most of last week’s increase of +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims are expected to show a small increase of +3,000 to 2.994 million following last week’s decline of -16,000 to 2.991 million. Today’s Dec trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to -$36.0 billion from -$34.3 billion in November.
There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include General Motors (consensus $0.87), Kellogg (0.82), Aetna (1.36), Cummins (1.97), News Corp (0.19), FMC Technologies (0.65), VeriSign (0.60), and Expedia (0.85). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include Cowen and Company Aerospace Defense & Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2014 on Wed-Thu, UBS Industrials Conference on Thu, and India Auto Expo 2014 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Aetna (AET +1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.34.
Assurant (AIZ +0.74%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.41.
Green Mountain (GMCR +0.92%) soared over 40% in after-hours trading after Coca-Cola (KO +0.35%) said it will buy a 10% stake in the company for $1.25 billion.
Everest Re (RE +0.11%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $6.28, well above consensus of $4.97.
Con-way (CNW -0.51%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, stronger than consensus of 21 cents.
Standard Pacific (SPF +0.12%) reported Q4 EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents.
CBRE Group (CBG -0.22%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, better than consensus of 66 cents.
Disney (DIS +1.00%) rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS ex-items of $1.04, well ahead of consensus of 92 cents.
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD +0.60%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -1 cents, worse than consensus of a 2 cent gain.
Mettler-Toledo (MTD -0.82%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.82, better than consensus of $3.74.
Allstate (ALL -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, well above consensus of $1.38.
Prudential (PRU +0.24%) reported Q4 EPS of $2.20, weaker than consensus of $2.23.
Akamai (AKAM +2.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, higher than consensus of 52 cents.
Twitter (TWTR -0.53%) reported Q4 EPS of 2 cents, better than consensus of a -2 cent loss and then said it sees 2014 revenue of $1.15 billion-$1.2 billion, above consensus $1.13 billion.
Cincinnati Financial (CINF -0.32%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.
Fiserv FISV reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.33%) this morning are up +8.75 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 3-1/4 month low after Jan ADP employment rose +175,000, less than expectations of +185,000 and the smallest increase in 5 months. Stock prices recovered, however, and settled only modestly lower after the Jan ISM non-manufacturing index rose +1.0 to 54.0, better than expectations of +0.7 to 53.7. Another negative for stocks was the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that the Fed may have to quicken the pace of tapering QE3 if the economy improves as he expects. Closes: S&P 500 -0.20%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq 100 -0.44%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks erased an early decline and moved higher. T-note prices were also hurt by the hawkish comment from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser that an improving U.S. economy may “warrant a quicker tapering of bond purchases” by the Fed. Closes: TYH4 -8.50, FVH4 -3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.09%) this morning is up +0.074 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0014 (-0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jan ADP employment report of +175,000, and (2) a rebound in stock prices from their worst levels, which reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Closes: Dollar index -0.085 (-0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00154 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.204 (-0.20%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +1.02%) this morning is up +53 cents (+0.34%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +1.20%) is up +0.0165 (+0.62%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher. Supportive factors for crude included (1) the +440,000 bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, well below expectations for a +2.270 million bbl build, (2) the +505,000 bbl increase in weekly gasoline stockpiles, only about half of expectations of +920,000 bbl, and (3) the fall in Jan OPEC crude production to a 2-1/2 yr low of 29.888 million bpd. Closes: CLH4 +0.19 (+0.20%), RBH4 +0.0382 (+1.47%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/06/2014
US0730 ETJan Challenger job cuts, Dec -5.9% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -13,000 to 335,000, previous +19,000 to 348,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +7,000 to 2.998 million, previous 16,000 to 2.991 million.
0830 ETQ4 non-farm productivity expected +2.8%, Q3 +3.0%. Q4 unit labor costs expected -0.7%, Q3 -1.4%.
0830 ETDec trade balance expected -$36.0 billion, Nov -$34.3 billion.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETFed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Oversight of Financial Stability and Data Security.
1730 ETBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on the economic outlook at New College in Sarasota, FL.
GER0600 ETGerman Dec factory orders expected +0.2% m/m and +6.3% y/y, Nov +2.1% m/m and +6.8% y/y.
UK0700 ETBOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, no change expected to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset target.
EUR0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
CHIn/aChinese markets are closed Monday-Thursday for Lunar New Year holiday.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/06/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Noble Energy IncNBL USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.588
PPL CorpPPL USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.503
Exelon CorpEXC USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.535
Teradata CorpTDC USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.845
Philip Morris International IncPM USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.367
Vulcan Materials CoVMC USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2013-0.028
Alliance Data Systems CorpADS USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20132.331
Diamond Offshore Drilling IncDO US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.806
Aetna IncAET US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.359
Snap-on IncSNA US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.557
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.589
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.013
Cummins IncCMI US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.965
Sealed Air CorpSEE US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.372
General Motors CoGM US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.866
L Brands IncLB US7:30January 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Twenty-First Century Fox IncFOXA US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.33
Perrigo Co PlcPRGO US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.595
Kellogg CoK US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.82
Assurant IncAIZ US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Twenty-First Century Fox IncFOXA US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
PPL CorpPPL US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Teradata CorpTDC US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Tesoro CorpTSO US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Aetna IncAET US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Alliance Data Systems CorpADS US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Chesapeake Energy CorpCHK US9:00FY 2014 Guidance CallY 2014
Marathon Oil CorpMRO US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Allstate Corp/TheALL US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Kellogg CoK US9:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Noble Energy IncNBL US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Diamond Offshore Drilling IncDO US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Snap-on IncSNA US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Cummins IncCMI US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Sealed Air CorpSEE US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Perrigo Co PlcPRGO US10:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
General Motors CoGM US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Kimco Realty CorpKIM US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Lincoln National CorpLNC US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Northeast UtilitiesNU US10:30Analyst DayY 2014
Exelon CorpEXC US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Vulcan Materials CoVMC US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
FMC CorpFMC US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Prudential Financial IncPRU US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINF US11:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Philip Morris International IncPM US13:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC US14:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Expedia IncEXPE US16:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.85
VeriSign IncVRSN US16:05Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.596
Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
News CorpNWSA US16:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
VeriSign IncVRSN US16:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Republic Services IncRSG US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Republic Services IncRSG USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.464
FMC Technologies IncFTI USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.651
Apartment Investment & Management CoAIV USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.564
News CorpNWSA USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.194
Rockwell Collins IncCOL USAnnual General MeetingY 2014
Consolidated Edison IncED USQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.654
Gap Inc/TheGPS USJanuary 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Costco Wholesale CorpCOST USJanuary 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
L Brands IncLB USJanuary 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)