BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, July 9th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.06%) this morning are unchanged and European stocks are up +0.14% ahead of the minutes of the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting. A slide in Portuguese bank stocks is limiting gains in European stocks with Banco Espirito Santo SA, Portugal's second-biggest bank by market value, down nearly 8% and Espirito Santo Financial Group down 11% after payments were missed on some corporate notes. Banque Privee Espirito Santo, a unit of Espirito Santo Financial Group SA, said Tuesday that there was a delay in payments on some short-term debt securities issued by Espirito Santo International. Tuesday's fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low undercut Asian stocks that closed lower with Japan's Nikkei Stock Index and China's Shanghai Stock Index at 1-week lows: Japan -0.08%, Hong Kong -1.55%, China -1.46%, Taiwan -0.43%, Australia -1.06%, Singapore -0.24%, South Korea -0.41%, India -0.54%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 -0.11%) is down -0.11%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.70%) is up +0.73%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.34%) is up +0.45%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Dec corn down -0.49% at a contract low and Nov soybeans down -0.56% at a fresh 5-month low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.01%) are up +1 tick.
China Jun CPI rose +2.3% y/y, less than expectations of +2.4% y/y. Jun PPI fell -1.1% y/y, slightly more than expectations of -1.0% y/y, but still the slowest pace of decline in 2 years.
UK Jun Halifax house prices fell -0.6% m/m and rose +8.8% 3-months/year-over-year, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +8.9% 3-months/year-over-year.
The UK Jun BRC shop price index fell -1.8% y/y, a bigger slide than the -1.4% y/y drop in May and the fastest pace of decline since the data series began in 2006.
Japan Jun machine tool orders surged +34.2% y/y, a larger increase than May's +24.1% y/y gain.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The FOMC today will release the minutes from its last meeting on June 17-18. The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: MSC Industrial (consensus $1.07). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Europe 2020 a Driver to Global Growth? on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

American Express (AXP -0.87%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
Schlumberger (SLB -0.58%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at HSBC.
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX -2.65%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
BNP Paribas (BNPQY -2.04%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Deutsche Bank (DB -1.78%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Potash (POT -0.72%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Marvell (MRVL +0.76%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
Broadcom (BRCM +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' at Oppenheimer.
British Petroleum (BP -0.46%) was downgraded to 'Hold from 'Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Davidson Kempner Partners reported a 7.89% passive stake in Jason Industries (JASN -0.19%) .
Healthcare Services (HCSG -0.76%) reported Q2 EPS of 20 cents, weaker than consensus of 22 cents.
Bob Evans (BOBE -0.70%) reported Q4 EPS of 48 cents, better than consensus of 41 cents.
Alcoa (AA +0.75%) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, well above consensus of 12 cents.
International Paper (IP -0.83%) announced its board has authorized an additional $1.5 billion share buyback program to supplement the $1.5 billion share repurchase program authorized in September 2013.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.06%) this morning are unch. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks to a 1-1/2 month low on European economic concerns after German May exports fell more than expected and after UK manufacturing unexpectedly contracted by the most in 16 months, and (2) valuation concerns with stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 16.5 times projected earnings, above the 5-yr average of 14.3. Closes: S&P 500 -0.70%, Dow Jones -0.69%, Nasdaq -1.19%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.01%) this morning are up +1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. The main bullish factor Tuesday was the slide in stocks which prompted short-covering in Treasuries on increased safe-haven demand for U.S. government debt. Closes: TYU4 +11.50, FVU4 +5.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is down -0.005 (-0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) weakness in USD/JPY as the fall in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low boosted safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) the drop in the 10-year T-note yield which reduces the dollar’s interest rate differentials. Strength in EUR/USD was limited on European economic concerns after German May exports fell more than expected. Closes: Dollar index -0.039 (-0.05%), EUR/USD +0.0007 (+0.05%). USD/JPY -0.29 (-0.28%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 -0.11%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.11%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 -0.50%) is down -0.0146 (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Aug crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday posted 3-week lows and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the slide in stocks, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) a lack of disruption to oil exports in Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, as militants have so far failed to extend their insurgency to southern Iraq, where 75% of the country’s oil output is located. Losses were limited on expectations that weekly EIA inventory data on Wed will show crude stockpiles fell -2.5 mln bbl. Closes: CLQ4 -0.13 (-0.13%) RBQ4 -0.0181 (-0.61%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.2% with purchase sub-index -0.7% and refi sub-index +0.1%.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
	1400 ET	Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes.
UK	0300 ET	UK Jun Halifax house prices expected -0.3% m/m and +8.9% y/y 3-mo/year-over-year, May +3.9% m/m and +8.7% 3-mo/year-over-year.
	1901 ET	UK Jun RICS house price balance expected 55%, May 57%.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Jun PPI expected +0.1% m/m and +4.5% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan May tertiary industry index expected +178% m/m, Apr -5.4% m/m.
	1950 ET	Japan May machine orders expected +0.7% m/m and +10.1% y/y, Apr -9.1% m/m and +17.6% y/y.
CHI	n/a	China Jun new yuan loans expected 955.0 billion yuan, May 870.8 billion yuan.
	n/a	China Jun trade balance expected +$36.95 billion, May +$35.92 billion. Jun exports expected +10.4% y/y, May +7.0% y/y. Jun imports expected +6.0% y/y, May -1.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/09/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.066
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	8:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd	SLXP US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Healthcare Trust of America Inc	HTA US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/1

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, July 1st, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.63%% after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded last month at the fastest pace in 6 months, which may help sustain global economic growth. The Russian Micex Stock Index and the ruble fell after Ukraine refused to extend the cease-fire as Ukrainian President Poroshenko vowed to retake the country's eastern most regions taken over by pro-Russian rebels. Gains in European stocks were tempered after a gauge of Eurozone manufacturing activity was revised down to the slowest pace in 7 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong closed for holiday, China -0.03%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia -0.37%, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.31%, India +0.40%. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) is up +0.34%. Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.05%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.36%) is up +0.33% at a 3-1/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the truce in Ukraine ended and fighting between government forces and separatists intensified. Sep copper (HGU14 -0.25%) is down -0.14%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with grain prices lower on negative carry-over from Monday's bearish USDA planting intentions report. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.07%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. GBP/USD jumped +0.20% to a 5-1/2 year high after UK manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated last month to the fastest pace in 7 months. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.21%) are down -8 ticks.
The China Jun manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 51.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months.
The Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions fell to 12 from 17 in Q1, weaker than expectations of a decline to 15. The Q2 Tankan large non-manufacturing business conditions fell to 19 from 24 in Q1, right on expectations.
German Jun unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month as it climbed +9,000, worse than expectations of a -10,000 decline. The Jun unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations.
The German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised down to 52.0 from the originally reported 52.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months.
The Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to 51.8 from the originally reported 51.9, the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The Eurozone May unemployment rate was unchanged from Apr that was revised lower to a 1-1/2 year low of 11.6% from 11.7%.
The UK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 57.5, better than expectations of -0.2 to 56.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s June ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 55.8, adding to May’s +0.5 point increase to 55.4. Today’s June total vehicle sales report is expected to fall back to 16.3 million units after posting a 7-1/3 year high of 16.70 million in May. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Acuity Brands (consensus $1.12), Paychex (0.40). There are no equity conferences this week.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Goldman Sachs upgraded Netflix (NFLX -0.33%) to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' and raised their price target on the stock to $590 from $380.
BofA/Merrill lowered Goldman Sach's (GS +0.40%) Q2 EPS estimate to $3.00 from $3.44, vs. consensus of $3.16 and Morgan Stanley's (MS +2.47%) Q2 EPS estimate to 54 cents from 63 cents, vs. consensus of 58 cents to reflect lower trading revenues and mixed capital markets activity.
FBR Capital reiterated its 'Outperform' rating on Hanesbrands (HBI +0.19%) and raised their price target on the stock to $111 following the company's acquisition of DBApparel.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +0.36%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Wedbush.
Symantec (SYMC +0.57%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
Martin Marietta (MLM -0.14%) will replace U.S. Steel (X +0.08%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Boeing (BA -1.02%) was awarded a $1.94 billion fixed-price-incentive-fee government contract for the full rate production of 11 Lot 38 F/A-18E aircraft for the U.S. Navy and 33 EA-18G aircraft for the U.S. Navy and the government of Australia.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -0.86%) was awarded a $3.64 billion government contract modification for the procurement of 25 full rate production E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft.
Bloomberg reports that BNP Paribas (BNPQY +0.40%) agreed to plead guilty to processing transactions involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba and will pay $8.8 billion in fines.
Expedia (EXPE -0.24%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $90.
Goldman Sachs (GS +0.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.
Priceline (PCLN -0.20%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $1450.
TECO Energy (TE +0.76%) filed to sell 15.5 million shares of common stock.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for the S&P 500 was a rally in homebuilding stocks after U.S. May pending home sales rose +6.1% m/m, much stronger than market expectations of +1.5% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 4 years. Bearish factors included (1) the -2.9 point decline in the Jun Chicago PMI to 62.6, a larger decline than expectations of -2.5 to 63.0, and (2) the prediction from UBS that with the end of the quarter on Monday, fund managers may sell up to $20 billion in stocks as fund manages sell equities and buy bonds to rebalance their portfolios. Closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.13%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.21%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed little changed. A bullish factor for T-notes was the larger-than-expected decline in the Jun Chicago PMI. Limiting strength was the larger-than-expected +6.1% m/m increase in May pending home sales, the biggest jump in 4 years. Closes: TYU4 +2.50, FVU4 +2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.055 (+0.07%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which climbed to a 5-week high after Eurozone Jun core CPI rose more than expected, which reduces the chances of further ECB monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 5-week low amid speculation the BOJ will refrain from boosting monetary stimulus after Friday’s Japanese inflation data rose and Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in over 16 yrs. Closes: Dollar index -0.264 (-0.33%), EUR/USD +0.0045 (+0.33%). USD/JPY -0.054 (-0.05%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ14 +0.30%) this morning is up +36 cents (+0.34%). Aug gasoline (RBQ14 +0.13%) is up +0.0015 (+0.05%). Aug crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Aug crude at a 2-week low and Aug gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low. Bearish factors included (1) increased OPEC output as Bloomberg data showed that OPEC Jun crude production rose +278,000 bpd to 30.223 million bpd, a 4-month high, and (2) reduced concern that sectarian violence in Iraq will spread to the southern part of the country where three-quarters of the country’s oil production is located. Closes: CLQ4 -0.37 (-0.35%) RBQ4 -0.0309 (-1.01%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/01/2014

US	0945 ET	Revised Jun Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 57.5, prelim-Jun +1.1 to 57.5.
	1000 ET	Jun ISM manufacturing index expected +0.5 to 55.9, May +0.5 to 55.4. Jun ISM employment, May -1.9 to 52.8. Jun ISM new orders, May +1.8 to 56.9. Jun ISM prices paid expected unch at 60.0, May +3.5 to 60.0.
	1000 ET	May construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Apr +0.2% m/m.
	n/a	Jun total vehicle sales expected 16.38 million, May 16.70 million. Jun domestic vehicle sales expected 13.00 million, May 13.11 million.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Jun vehicle sales, May -5.6% y/y.
GER	0355 ET	German Jun unemployment change expected -10,000, May +24,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
	0355 ET	Revised German Jun Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 52.4.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Jun Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 51.9.
	0500 ET	Eurozone May unemployment rate expected unch at 11.7%.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jun Markit PMI manufacturing expected -0.5 to 56.5, May 57.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/01/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Acuity Brands Inc	AYI US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.124
Ford Motor Co	F US	9:30	June 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	9:30	Acquisition of CytoSport Holdings, Inc by Hormel Foods Corporation Call
Ford Motor Co	F US	10:00	June 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Acuity Brands Inc	AYI US	10:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Paychex Inc	PAYX US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.395
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	19:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014

Barchart Morning Call 10/11

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, October 11th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.07% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up +0.09%. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.48%, Hong Kong +1.16%, China +1.61%, Taiwan +0.06%, Australia +1.63%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +1.31%, India +1.26%. Global stocks are higher on speculation that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the borrowing authority of the U.S. to Nov 22 from Oct 17 and give lawmakers more time to hammer out a permanent deal to raise the debt limit. Credit-default swaps on 5-year U.S. Treasuries slipped -3.3 bp to 34.4 bp, a 1-week low. Commodity prices are mostly weaker. Nov crude oil (CLX13 -1.31%) is down -1.24% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.38%) is down -0.53 % after the IEA in its monthly report boosted its 2014 non-OPEC crude production estimate by +300,000 barrels a day from last month's estimate to 56.4 million barrels a day. The IEA also cut its global oil demand estimate for 2014 to 92 million barrels a day from 92.1 million forecast last month. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.56%) is down -0.83% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.20%) is up +0.28%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed with Dec corn down -0.86% at a 3-year low after the EPA said it is considering a cut in the 2014 biofuel mandate for ethanol to 13 billion gallons from 13.8 billion gallons. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.36% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.04%) are up +2.5 ticks.
Speaking last night at the Economic Club of New York, ECB President Draghi suggested the ECB could cut interest rates further if market conditions warrant when he said that "The Governing Council has unanimously agreed to incorporate an easing bias that explicitly provides for further rate reductions, should the volatility in money market conditions return to the levels observed in early summer."
Eurozone Aug construction output unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m, but rose +4.0% y/y, more than expectations of +3.9% y/y and the biggest annual gain in 1-3/4 years. July was revised higher to +2.8% m/m and +2.7% y/y from the originally reported +2.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
The German Sep Wholesale price index rose +0.7% m/m and fell -2.2% y/y, the biggest annual decline in 3-3/4 years.
The German Sep CPI (EU harmonized) was left unrevised at unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Sep PPI and retail sales reports have been postponed due to the government shut-down but today’s U.S. consumer confidence index will be released as usual since it is compiled by a non-governmental organization.  Today’s early-Oct U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a -1.6 point decline to 75.9, adding to the sharp -4.6 point decline to 77.5 seen in September.   There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  JPMorgan Chase (consensus $1.29), Wells Fargo (0.97), and Chimera Investment (0.11).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  IIF Annual Membership Meeting 2013 on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

JPMorgan Chase (JPM +3.49%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.19.
J.B. Hunt (JBHT +1.85%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at BofA/Merrill.
Deutsche Bank (DB +3.95%) was downgraded to "Underperform" from "Neutral" at Macquarie.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +2.12%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Sell" at Goldman.
BNP Paribas (BNPQY +3.48%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" and Societe Generale (SCGLY +3.86%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Underperform" at Macquarie.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC +2.16%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
Merck (MRK +0.47%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" and Eli Lilly (LLY +2.48%) was downgraded to "Underperform" from "Hold "at Jefferies.
Southeastern reported a 4.8% passive stake in Wendy's (WEN +2.58%) .
Wells Fargo downgraded the Consumer Staples sector to "Underweight" from "Overweight" citing downward earnings momentum with U.S. consumer disposable income growth near 50-year lows and commodity prices on the verge of deflation.
Safeway (SWY +2.50%) reported Q3 EPS of 27 cents, well ahead of consensus of 16 cents, and said that it intends to exit the Chicago market, where it operates 72 Dominick's stores, by early 2014.
Wells Fargo reported a 12.1% passive stake in Pike Electric (PIKE +3.18%) .
Micron (MU +1.54%) reported Q4 EPS ex-gains of 20 cents, below consensus of 25 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +1.25 points (+0.07%) at a fresh 1-week high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday rallied to a 1-week high and closed sharply higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers were near an agreement to raise the debt limit. Speculation is that lawmakers will raise the debt limit temporarily for 6 weeks without policy conditions to give Congress more time to hammer out a CR and a long-tern increase in the debt ceiling. Stocks shrugged of the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims by +66,000 to a 6-month high of 374,000. Closes: S&P 500 +2.18%. Dow Jones +2.18%, Nasdaq 100 +2.17%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday tumbled to a 2-week low on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied sharply on speculation U.S. lawmakers were near an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. T-notes recovered from their worst levels on strong demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 30-year T-bond auctions that had a bid-to-cover of 2.64, well above the 12-auction average of 2.25. Closes: TYZ3 -9.00, FVZ3 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.124 (-0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0049 (+0.36%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday jumped to a 2-week high and closed higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers may finally reach a compromise to lift the debt ceiling. The dollar fell back from its best levels after U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more-than-expected to a 6-month high, which bolstered speculation the Fed will maintain QE3. Closes: Dollar index +0.041 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.0004 (-0.03%), USD/JPY +0.819 (+0.84%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 -1.31%) this morning is down -$1.28 (-1.24%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.38%) is down -0.0144 (-0.53%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed sharply higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers may finally agree on a short-term increase in the debt ceiling, which boosted stocks and most commodities. Gasoline prices also received a boost on concern over supplies on the U.S. East Coast after the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey and the PBF Energy refinery in Delaware, with a combined 420,000 barrels a day of capacity, were shut for planned maintenance. Closes: CLX3 +1.40 (+1.38%), RBX3 +0.0751 (+2.86%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/11/2013

US	0830 ET	Sep PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Aug +0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y (subject to postponement). Sep PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.
	0830 ET	Sep retail sales expected unch m/m and +0.4% m/m ex autos, Aug +0.2% and +0.1% ex autos.(subject to postponement).
	0955 ET	Preliminary U.S. Oct University of Michigan consumer confidence expected -1.6 to 75.9, Sep -4.6 to 77.5.
	1000 ET	Aug business inventories expected +0.3%, July +0.4% (subject to postponement).
	1100 ET	Fed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel on monetary policy at the 2013 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership meeting.
	1200 ET	Oct WASDE crop production report.
	1300 ET	Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on Communicating Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound at the Council on Foreign Relations.
	n/a	World Bank and IMF annual meeting in Washington, D.C.
GER	0200 ET	German Sep wholesale price index, Aug -0.6% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
	0200 ET	Revised German Sep CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug construction output expected +0.8% m/m and +3.7% y/y, July +2.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
EUR	0830 ET	ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet participates in the Global Economic Outlook session at the 2013 annual membership meeting for the Institute for International Finance.
CHI	n/a	China Sep trade balance expected +$26.17 billion, Aug +$28.52 billion. Sep exports expected +5.5% y/y, Aug +7.2% y/y. Sep imports expected +7.0% y/y, Aug +7.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/11/2013

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US	7:00	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	1.288
Wells Fargo & Co	WFC US	8:00	Q3 2013 Earnings Release	Q3 2013	0.973
JPMorgan Chase & Co	JPM US	8:30	Q3 2013 Earnings Call	Q3 2013
Chimera Investment Corp	CIM US		Q2 2012 Earnings Release	Q2 2012	0.107