Showing posts with label NRG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NRG. Show all posts

Monday, February 29, 2016

MORNING CALL 2/29

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.08%) are down -0.18% and European stocks are down -0.49% after G-20 finance ministers meeting over the weekend in Shanghai disappointed financial markets by not coming up with coordinated stimulus to support the global economy. Weakness in bank stocks is leading the overall market lower with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both down at least 1.1% in pre-market trading. Stock prices recovered from their worst levels, however, after China cut its reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 bp to 17.00% from 17.50%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.00%, Hong Kong -1.30%, China -2.86%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.02%, Singapore +0.65%, South Korea -0.25%, India -0.66%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-month low after G-20 officials failed to come up with a coordinated plan to boost global growth, while Japanese stocks also fell after the yen rallied against the dollar, which undercut exporter stocks.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.17% at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.41% at a 4-week high after Eurozone CPI unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in a year, which bolsters the case for the ECB to expand stimulus when it convenes next week. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.95%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.04%) are up +3.5 ticks on carryover support from a rally in German bunds to a 10-1/4 month high after Eurozone Feb CPI unexpectedly fell by the most in a year.
After Chinese financial markets closed today, the PBOC cut the required reserve ratio for China's biggest banks by 50 bp to 17.00% from 17.50%, effective March 1.
Eurozone Feb CPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch y/y and the fastest pace of decline in a year. Feb core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.9% y/y and the smallest increase in 10 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb Milwaukee ISM (expected -0.36 to 50.00, Jan +1.83 to 50.36), (2) Feb Chicago PMI (expected -3.1 to 52.5, Jan +12.7 to 55.6), (3) Jan pending home sales (expected +0.5% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +3.1% y/y), (4) Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +4.6 to -30.0, Jan -13.0 to -34.6), (5) New York Fed President William Dudley's speech at a symposium in Hangzhou, China co-hosted by the PBOC and the New York Fed, and (6) USDA weekly grain export inspections.
There are 2 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: NRG Energy (consensus $0.18), Endo Intl (1.27).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Shimmick Construction (SCCI).
Equity conferences this week include: BMO Capital Markets Global Metals and Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, J.P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Technology Conference on Mon-Thu, Barclays Power & Utility Credit Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Media & Telecom Conference on Tue, Canaccord Genuity Musculoskeletal Conference on Tue, JMP Securities Technology Conference on Tue, Longbow Research Basic Materials Investor Conference on Tue, Pacific Crest Securities Emerging Technology Summit on Tue-Wed, UBS Natural Gas & Electric Utilities Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Refining Conference on Thu, Citi Asset Management, Broker Dealer & Exchanges Investor Conference on Thu, Gabelli & Company Waste & Environmental Services Conference on Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu-Fri.


OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Morgan Stanley (MS +2.15%) and Goldman Sachs (GS +1.35%) are both down at least 1% in pre-market trading.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX -4.79%) slumped 7% in pre-market trading after the company withdrew its financial forecast and delayed releasing its quarterly results as its CEO returns from leave.
Federal-Mogul Holdings (FDML +12.93%) may be active today after Carl Icahn, the company's biggest shareholder, offered to buy the rest of the company for $7 a share, well above Friday's closing price of $4.98.
General Motors (GM +0.44%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy at Argus Research.
Dillard's (DDS +3.73%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Southwestern Energy (SWN -5.76%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.
Dynegy (DYN +3.06%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim with a price target of $22.
FormFactor (FORM +1.64%) said it sees Q1 revenue of $65 million-$70 million, below consensus of $70.3 million.
Cleco (CNL -1.03%) reported Q4 operating EPS of 38 cents, below consensus of 42 cents.
New Jersey Resources (NJR -2.58%) will replace StanCorp in the S&P MidCap 400 as of the close of trading on Monday, March 7.
Business Insider reports that Bank of America (BAC +3.08%) is preparing for "significant" job cuts of over 5% across its global investment banking and markets business.
Atlas Resource Partners LP (ARP -5.63%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.08%) this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.18%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.34%, Nasdaq -0.13%. The S&P 500 on Friday fell back from a 1-1/2 month high and closed lower on concern the Fed may continue to raise interest rates after the U.S. Jan PCE core deflator rose +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Stocks received support from the +0.95% rally in the Shanghai Composite after the PBOC said it sees room for further monetary easing and from the +0.5% increase in U.S. Jan personal spending, stronger than expectations of +0.3% and the biggest increase in 8 months.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.04%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH6 -23.00, FVH6 -16.25. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower on the stronger-than-expected Jan personal spending and income reports and on the +1.7% y/y increase in the U.S. Jan PCE core deflator, stronger than expectations of +1.5% y/y and the largest increase in nearly 3 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.171 (+0.17%) at a 3-weeek high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0045 (-0.41%) at a 4-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.08 (-0.95%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.861 (+0.89%), EUR/USD -0.0084 (-0.76%), USD/JPY +1.00 (+0.88%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 3-week high and settled higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Q4 GDP and Jan personal spending and income reports, which bolster confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. In addition, EUR/USD slid to a 3-week low after German Feb CPI fell-0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 13 months, which supports the case for the ECB to expand stimulus.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +0.49%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.12%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 -0.32%) is down -0.0093 (-0.72%). Friday's closes: CLJ6-0.29 (-0.88%), RBJ6 -0.0171 (-1.30%). Apr crude and gasoline on Friday fell back from 3-week highs and closed lower on the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high and the ongoing crude oil supply glut with EIA crude inventories at a record high. A bullish factor for crude was the late-Friday report from Baker Hughes that the active U.S. oil rig count fell -13 to 400 in the week ended Feb 26, the 10th straight decline and the fewest number of active rigs in 6 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/29/2016
US0900 ETFeb Milwaukee ISM expected -0.36 to 50.00, Jan +1.83 to 50.36.
0945 ETFeb Chicago PMI expected -3.1 to 52.5, Jan +12.7 to 55.6.
1000 ETJan pending home sales expected +0.5% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
1030 ETFeb Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +4.6 to -30.0, Jan -13.0 to -34.6.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
2330 ETNew York Fed President William Dudley speaks at a symposium in Hangzhou, China co-hosted by the PBOC and the New York Fed.
JPN0000 ETJapan Jan housing starts expected -0.3% y/y to 870,000 annualized, Dec -1.3% y/y to 860,000 annualized.
0000 ETJapan Jan construction orders, Dec +14.8% y/y.
1830 ETJapan Jan jobless rate expected unch at 3.3%. Jan job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.27.
1830 ETJapan Jan overall household spending expected -2.7% y/y, Dec -4.4% y/y
1850 ETJapan Q4 capital spending expected +10.0% y/y, Q3 +11.2% y/y. Q4 capital spending ex-software expected +8.7% y/y, Q3 +11.2% y/y.
2100 ETRevised Japan Feb Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
GER0200 ETGerman Jan import price index expected -1.0% m/m and -3.4% y/y, Dec -1.2% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Jan retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Dec +0.6% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Jan net consumer credit expected +1.4 billion pounds, Dec +1.2 billion pounds.
0430 ETUK Jan M4 money supply, Dec -0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jan mortgage approvals expected 73,700, Dec 70,800.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Feb CPI estimate expected unch y/y, Jan +0.3% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Jan +1.0% y/y.
CHI2000 ETChina Feb manufacturing PMI expected unch at 49.4, Jan -0.3 to 49.4. Feb non-manufacturing PMI, Jan 53.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/29/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Endo International PLCENDP USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.274
Golar LNG LtdGLNG USBef-mktY 2015 Earnings ReleaseY 2015-1.561
NRG Energy IncNRG USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.181
Tribune Media CoTRCO USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.549
Frank's International NVFI USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.103
Platform Specialty Products CorpPAH USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.11
NRG Energy IncNRG US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Endo International PLCENDP US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Tribune Media CoTRCO US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Platform Specialty Products CorpPAH US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Golar LNG LtdGLNG US10:00Y 2015 Earnings CallY 2015
Frank's International NVFI US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
OPKO Health IncOPK US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
TerraForm Power IncTERP US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Workday IncWDAY US17:00Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Juno Therapeutics IncJUNO US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
California Resources CorpCRC US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Atmel CorpATML USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.063
OPKO Health IncOPK USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150
Hertz Global Holdings IncHTZ USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.039
Intrexon CorpXON USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.187
Workday IncWDAY USAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2016-0.045
Brixmor Property Group IncBRX USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.511
Juno Therapeutics IncJUNO USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.434
California Resources CorpCRC USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.254
Intrexon CorpXON US17:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Orbital ATK IncOA USQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.106
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - Los AngelesY 2016
Howard Hughes Corp/TheHHC USQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.385
Puma Biotechnology IncPBYI USQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-1.846
TerraForm Power IncTERP US23:59Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.206
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Friday, February 27, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/27

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.15%) this morning are down -0.12% and European stocks are down -0.04% on expectations for U.S. Q4 GDP to be revised lower later today. Stock losses were limited after German lawmakers approved an extension of Greece's loan program. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.06%, Hong Kong -0.32%, China +0.18%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.34%, Singapore -0.68%, South Korea -0.58%, India +1.65%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 14-3/4 year high after Jan industrial production rose more than expected by the most in 3-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 4-week high ahead of the annual National People's Congress meeting next week. China's yuan fell to 6.2699 per dollar, a 2-1/3 year low, after the PBOC cut its reference rate by the most in a month. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +1.43%) is up +1.74% and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.12%) is up +0.95% at a 2-1/2 month high. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.10%) is down -0.20%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.94%) is down -0.87% after weekly Shanghai copper inventories surged +50,475 MT to 205,146 MT, an 11-month high. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.22%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.11%) are down -6 ticks.
The Japan Jan jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 3.6% when expectations were for no change at 3.4%. The Jan job-to-applicant ratio was unchanged at 1.14, weaker than expectations of 1.15.
Japan Jan overall household spending fell -5.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.1% y/y and the tenth consecutive month that spending has declined.
Japan Jan national CPI rose 2.4% y/y, right on expectations. Jan national CPI ex-fresh food rose +2.2% y/y, less than expectations of +2.3% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 10 months. Jan national CPI ex food & energy rose +2.1% y/y, right on expectations.
Japan Jan industrial production rose +4.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.7% m/m and the largest increase in 3-1/2 years. Year-over-year, Jan industrial production fell -2.6% y/y, less than expectations of -3.1% y/y.
Japan Jan retail sales fell -1.3% m/m and -2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
The German Jan import price index fell -0.8% m/m and -4.4% y/y, less than expectations of -1.1% m/m and -4.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Q4 GDP report is expected to be revised substantially lower to +2.0% (q/q annualized) from +2.6% in the preliminary report due to weaker trade and inventory figures. Today’s final-Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to be revised higher by +0.4 points to 94.0 from the early-Feb level of 93.6. Today’s Feb Chicago PMI is expected to show a decline of -1.4 to 58.0, more than offsetting the +0.6 point increase to 59.4 seen in January. The market is expecting today’s Jan pending home sales report to show a +2.0% m/m increase, recovering some ground after December’s -3.7% decline.
There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: NRG Energy (consensus $0.54), Pepco (0.20), Leucadia National Corp. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Gabelli & Company Inaugural Waste & Environmental Services Symposium on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CBOE Holdings (CBOE -1.63%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
FedEx (FDX -0.59%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Universal Health (UHS +3.02%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.71, better than consensus of $1.50.
Southwestern Energy (SWN -5.79%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 52 cents, higher than consensus of 50 cents.
MasTec (MTZ -0.96%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, above consensus of 38 cents.
Bio-Rad (BIO +0.91%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.34, higher than consensus of $1.18.
Tutor Perini (TPC -0.73%) reported Q4 EPS of 56 cents, weaker than consensus of 71 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.20-$2.50, well below consensus of $2.89.
Mentor Graphics (MENT -2.73%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.09, better than consensus of $1.07.
Ingram Micro (IM -0.04%) reported Q4 EPS of 98 cents, less than consensus of 99 cents.
Herbalife (HLF +3.45%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.41, better than consensus of $1.22, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $4.10-$4.50, well below consensus of $5.08.
J.C. Penney (JCP +1.45%) dropped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0 cents, well below consensus of 11 cents.
Monster Beverage (MNST +0.77%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 72 cents, well above consensus of 59 cents.
Autodesk (ADSK -1.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 25 cents, above consensus of 24 cents, but then lowerd guidance on fical 2016 EPS to $1.05-$1.20, below consensus of $1.32.
Ross Stores (ROST +0.60%) jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.20, higher than consensus of $1.11, and then announced a new $1.4 billion stock repurchase program.
The Gap (GPS +0.20%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 74 cents, and then announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.15%) this morning are down -2.50 points (-0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.15%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq +0.49%. Negative factors included (1) the +31,000 increase in U.S weekly initial unemployment claims, more than expectations of +7,000, (2) the +0.3% increase in Jan durable goods orders ex-transportation, weaker than expectations of +0.5%, and (3) weakness in energy producers as crude oil fell.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.11%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -14.00, FVH5 -9.25. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected +0.2% m/m increase in Jan core CPI, which may put the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.261 (-0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0025 (+0.22%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Thursday rallied to a 1-month high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.079 (+1.15%), EUR/USD -0.01638 (-1.44%), USD/JPY +0.555 (+0.47%). Bullish factors included (1) the +0.2% m/m increase in U.S. Jan core CPI, stronger than expectations of +0.1%, which reduces deflation concerns and puts the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-month low as the ECB will soon begin its QE program and start buying sovereign debt next month.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +1.43%) this morning is up +84 cents (+1.74%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.12%) is up +0.0181 (+0.95%) at a 2-1/2 month high. Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLJ5 -2.82 (-5.53%), RBJ5 -0.0022 (-0.11%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-month high and (2) negative carry-over from Wednesday’s EIA data that showed an +8.4 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to a record 434.1 million bbl (EIA data since 1982) and a +2.4 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to a 1-1/2 year high of 48.68 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/27/2015
US0830 ETRevised Q4 GDP expected +2.0% (q/q annualized) vs. preliminary +2.6%. Q4 personal consumptions expected unrevised at +4.3%. Q4 GDP price index expected unrevised at unch. Q4 core PCE deflator expected unrevised at +1.1% q/q.
0900 ETFeb Milwaukee ISM expected +2.40 to 54.00, Jan -6.01 to 51.60.
0945 ETFeb Chicago PMI expected -1.4 to 58.0, Jan +0.6 to 59.4.
1000 ETJan pending home sales expected +2.0% m/m and +8.7% y/y, Dec -3.7% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
1000 ETFinal-Feb U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) expected +0.4 to 94.0, early-Feb -4.5 to 93.6.
1015 ETNew York Fed President William Dudley and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Nester are discussants of a report on the new neutral for the federal funds rate and condition of the economy at the University of Chicagos Booth School of Business 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum.
1330 ETFed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio and BOJ Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso participate in a panel discussion on Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet at the University of Chicagos Booth School of Business 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum.
JPN0000 ETJapan Jan housing starts expected -11.6% y/y to 880,000 annualized, Dec -14.7% y/y to 883,000 annualized.
0000 ETJapan Jan construction orders, Dec +7.5% y/y.
GER0200 ETGerman Jan import price index expected -1.1% m/m and -4.6% y/y, Dec -1.7% m/m and -3.7% y/y.
0800 ETGerman Feb CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.6% m/m and -0.5% y/y, Jan -1.3% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
UK0430 ETRevised UK Q4 GDP, previous +0.5% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
0430 ETUK Q4 total business investment, Q3 -1.4% q/q and +5.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec index of services, Nov +0.1% m/m and +0.8% 3-mon/3-mon.
0430 ETUK Feb Lloyds business barometer, Jan 52.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/27/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
NRG Energy IncNRG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.541
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US8:00RoadshowY 2015
Eaton Corp PLCETN US8:30Analyst ConferenceY 2015
Universal Health Services IncUHS US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
NRG Energy IncNRG US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Whole Foods Market IncWFM US9:00Investor ConferenceY 2015
Southwestern Energy CoSWN US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Pepco Holdings IncPOM USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.2
Leucadia National CorpLUK USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2014
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Thursday, January 15, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/15



OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.11%) this morning are down -0.57% and European stocks are up +0.21%. The unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon the Swiss franc's cap against the euro roiled currency markets and sent Switzerland's SMI Stock Index down to a 2-3/4 month low. The franc surged as much as 27% against the dollar and soared to a record against the euro after the SNB unexpectedly ended its 3-year minimum exchange rate of 1.20 franc per euro. The move by the SNB comes one week before the ECB meeting where the ECB may implement QE, a move that may add to pressure on the franc against the euro. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.86%, Hong Kong +0.99%, China +2.90%, Taiwan -0.16%, Australia -0.42%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea -0.09%, India +2.66%. India's Sensex Stock Index soared over 2% to a 5-week high after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut interest rates. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +1.42%) is down -0.45%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.04%) is down -1.46%. Feb gold (GCG15 +1.25%) is up +1.73% at a 2-3/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the move by the SNB to abandon its minimum exchange rate against the euro roiled currency markets. Mar copper (HGH15 +2.51%) is up +1.84%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) is down -0.39%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.70% at an 11-year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.73%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.06%) are up +9.5 ticks.
The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly ended its 3-year minimum exchange rate of 1.20 franc per euro and moved the target range for the 3-month Libor to between -1.25% and -0.25% from the current range of between -0.75% and 0.25%. The Swiss franc soared to a record 85.17 centimes per euro after the action and sent the Swiss Market Index tumbling 11% to a 2-3/4 month low.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75% from 8.00%, the first rate cut in 20 months, and RBI Governor Rajan said that inflation will probably be below 6.0% by Jan 2016.
China Dec new yuan loans increased by 697.3 billion yuan, less than expectations of 880.0 billion yuan.
Japan Dec PPI fell -0.4% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the fifth consecutive month that producer prices have remained unchanged or declined. On an annual basis, Dec PPY rose +1.9% y/y, less than expectations of +2.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months.
Japan Nov machine orders rose +1.3% m/m and fell -14.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.4% m/m and -6.3% y/y with the -14.6% y/y drop the largest annual decline in 5 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small decline of -2,000 and today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -52,000 to 2.400 million. Today’s Dec final-demand PPI is expected to ease to +1.0% y/y from Nov’s +1.4% thanks mostly to the plunge in oil and gasoline prices. Today’s Jan NY Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions report is expected to show a +8.58 point increase to 5.00, climbing back into positive territory after Dec’s -13.74 point plunge to a 2-year low of -3.58. Meanwhile, today’s Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is expected to show a -5.6 point decline to 18.7, adding to December’s -15.9 point decline to 24.3.
There are 9 the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Citigroup (consensus $0.09), Intel (0.66), Bank of America (0.31), Lennar (0.96), Schlumberger (1.46). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Biomarkers from Research to Clinic Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Goldman Sachs downgraded Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.73%) to 'Sell' from 'Neutral.'
Goldman Sachs upgraded Eli Lilly (LLY +0.55%) to 'Neutral' from 'Sell.'
Fastenal (FAST -2.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 40 cents, right on consensus.
Bank of America (BAC -2.49%) reported Q4 EPS of 32 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.
BlackRock (BLK -0.64%) reported Q4 EPS of $4.82, higher than consensus of $5.68.
Lennar (LEN -1.12%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.09, better than consensus of 96 cents.
Adobe Systems (ADBE -0.85%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a $2.0 billion stock repurchase plan through fiscal 2017.
Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.07%) was awarded a $963.5M government contract for intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, ground subsystems support.
Ashland (ASH -0.59%) Was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $146.
BlackBerry (BBRY +29.76%) slumped 15% in after-hours trading after it denied a Reuters reports that it was approached by Samsung SSNLF about a potential takeover.
Sanders Capital reported a 5.58% passive stake in D.R. Horton (DHI +1.29%) , a 8.53% passive stake in Ryland Group (RYL +0.41%) and a 10.84% passive stake in Meritage Homes (MTH -1.97%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.11%) this morning are down -11.50 points (-0.57%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday tumbled to a 4-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -1.06%, Nasdaq -0.49%. Bearish factors included (1) concern about a global economic slowdown after the World Bank cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to +3.0% from +3.4%, saying risks to the global economy are “significant and tilted to the downside,” and (2) the -0.9% drop in U.S. Dec retail sales, weaker than expectations of -0.1% and the biggest decline in 11 months, and the -1.0% plunge in Dec retail sales ex-autos, weaker than expectations of unch and the largest decline in 5-3/4 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.06%) this morning are up +9.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday rose to a contract high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 year low of 1.78%. Closes: TYH5 +14.50, FVH5 +9.50. Bullish factors included (1) concern about a global economic slowdown after the World Bank lowered its 2015 global GDP forecast, and (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Dec retail sales report, which may prompt the Fed to delay an interest rate hike.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) this morning is down -0.359 (-0.39%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0082 (-0.70%) at an 11-year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.86 (-0.73%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.149 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.00166 (+0.14%), USD/JPY -0.602 (-0.51%). Bearish factors included (1) the bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. Dec retail sales, which fueled speculation the Fed may delay a rate hike, and (2) the slide in USD/JPY to a 4-week low as a sell-off in global stocks boosted safe-haven demand for the yen.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +1.42%) this morning is down -22 cents (-0.45%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.04%) is down -0.0197 (-1.46%). Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply higher: CLG5 +2.59 (+5.64%), RBG5 +0.0848 (+6.69%). The main bullish factor was a weaker dollar that spurred short covering. Bearish factors included (1) the +5.39 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to a 6-1/2 month high of 387.8 million bbl, more than expectations of +1.75 million bbl, (2) the +1.7 million bbl jump in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to 33.9 million bbl, a 10-1/2 month high, and (3) the +0.7% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jan 9 to 9.192 million bpd, the highest in over 40 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/15/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 292,000, previous -4,000 to 294,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -52,000 to 2.400 million, previous +101,000 to 2.452 million.
0830 ETJan Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +8.58 to 5.00, Dec -3.58.
0830 ETDec final demand PPI expected -0.4% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Dec final demand PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +1.8% y/y.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETJan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -5.6 to 18.7, Dec 24.3.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Nov trade balance expected +20.0 billion euros, Oct +19.4 billion euros.
JPN1850 ETJapan Nov tertiary industry index expected +0.2% m/m, Oct -0.2% m/m.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/15/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
BlackRock IncBLK USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20144.679
First Republic Bank/CAFRC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.716
Lennar CorpLEN US6:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.96
Bank of America CorpBAC US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.313
Commerce Bancshares Inc/MOCBSH US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.659
Fastenal CoFAST US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.395
Citigroup IncC US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.088
PPG Industries IncPPG US8:11Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.988
Bank of America CorpBAC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
BlackRock IncBLK US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US9:00Annual General Meeting
NRG Energy IncNRG US9:00Investor Meeting - Day 2Y 2015
Fastenal CoFAST US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Greif IncGEF US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
First Republic Bank/CAFRC US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Lennar CorpLEN US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Citigroup IncC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Citigroup IncC US11:30TMAC Presents John Landry: Top Issues Facing Treasury Departments in 2015
PPG Industries IncPPG US14:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
People's United Financial IncPBCT US16:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.211
Intel CorpINTC US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
People's United Financial IncPBCT US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Schlumberger LtdSLB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.459
Intel CorpINTC USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.659
Best Buy Co IncBBY USQ4 2015 Sales and Revenue ReleaseQ4 2015
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/13

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +0.53% and European stocks are up +1.20% as a plunge in crude oil to a new 5-1/2 year low reduces expectations of an early interest rate increase by the Fed and boosts speculation the ECB will expand stimulus to ward off deflation. Stocks also received support from a larger-than-expected increase in China Dec exports, a sign of economic strength. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.64%, Hong Kong +0.79%, China +0.01%, Taiwan +0.58%, Australia -0.33%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.24%, India -0.58%. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) is down -2.76% at a fresh 5-1/2 year low. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -2.55% at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.56%) is up +0.53% at a 2-1/2 month high on speculation the plunge in energy costs will raise deflation concerns and reduce the chance of a Fed interest rate increase. Mar copper (HGH15 -2.90%) is down -2.97% at a 4-1/2 year low on signs of increased supplies after LME copper inventories rose +3,925 MT to a 7-3/4 month high of 191.325 MT. Copper continues to slide despite strong demand from China after data from China's customs office showed China 2014 copper imports rose +7.4% to a record 4.83 MMT. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%) is up +0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.36%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.16%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high.
The China Dec trade balance was in surplus by +$49.61 billion, more than expectations of +$49.00 billion. Dec exports rose +9.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.0% y/y. Dec imports fell -2.4% y/y, less than expectations of -6.2% y/y.
Comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny signal he favors implementing QE when the ECB meets on Jan 22 when he said policy makers must treat the threat of deflation seriously and "we shouldn't wait too long with a reaction."
The German Dec wholesale price index fell -1.0% m/m, the biggest decline in 6 years. On an annual basis, Dec wholesale prices fell -2.3% y/y, the largest annual decline in 5 years.
UK Dec CPI was unch m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y with the +0.5% y/y increase matching the May 2000 gain as the slowest annual pace of increase on record. Dec core CPI rose +1.3% y/y, right on expectations.
The Japan Dec eco-watchers survey current rose +3.7 to 45.2, more than expectations of +2.5 to 44.0. The Dec eco-watchers survey outlook rose +2.7 to 46.7.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Nov JOLTS job openings report is expected to rise by +16,000 jobs to 4.850 million jobs, adding to October’s increase of +149,000 to 4.834 million jobs.  The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes.  There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  IHS (consensus $1.55), CSX (0.49), Linear Technology (0.49).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  JP Morgan Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Needham Growth Conference on Tue, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference on Tue-Wed, and Biomarkers from Research to Clinic Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Hilton (HLT -1.01%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -3.47%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Mosaic (MOS +0.87%) was downgraded to 'Underperformer' from 'Sector Performer' at CIBC.
Tilly's (TLYS +0.43%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at B. Riley.
Comerica (CMA -0.96%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at RW Baird.
NRG Energy (NRG -1.66%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
FirstEnergy (FE -1.31%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Valmont (VMI -0.06%) lowered its fiscal 2014 EPS view to $8.10-$8.20 from $8.55-$8.65, weaker than consensus of $8.60.
Paulson & Co. reported a 19.8% passive stake in International Tower Hill Mines (THM +11.90%) .
Wolverine World Wide (WWW +0.37%) said it sees fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS at the high end of $1.57-$1.63 with fiscal 2014 revenue of $2.76 billion, more than consensus of $2.74 billion.
The Leverhulme Trust reported a 5.5% stake in Unilever (UL +1.53%) .
Sensata (ST -1.51%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $60.
Nokomis Capital reported a 10.1% passive stake in WidePoint (WYY -1.94%) .
SYNNEX (SNX -1.31%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.83, stronger than consensus of $1.69, and then sais it sees Q1 EPS of $1.49-$1.54, above consensus of $1.45.
Alcoa (AA +0.37%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, well above consensus of 27 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.49%) this morning are up +10.75 points (+0.53%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.54%, Nasdaq -1.03%. Bearish factors included (1) a slide in energy producers after the price of crude plunged to a new 5-1/2 year low, and (2) trepidation and long liquidation pressures ahead of Q4 earnings season that officially started on Monday with Alcoa’s earnings report.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.16%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a 2-3/4 month high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday posted a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +15.50, FVH5 +9.00. Supportive factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which dampens the outlook for inflation and spurs speculation the Fed may delay an interest rate increase, (2) strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $24 billion 3-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, an investor class that includes foreign central banks, bought 45.8% of the T-notes at auction, the most since Aug 2011, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks sold off.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.28%)this morning is up +0.288 (+0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0043 (-0.36%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.31 (+0.26%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar index +0.048 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00053 (-0.04%), USD/JPY -0.093 (-0.08%). Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will announce a QE program when it convenes next week, and (2) a slide in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.82%) this morning is down -$1.27 a barrel (-2.76%) at a fresh 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.56%) is down -0.0325 (-2.55%) at a 5-3/4 year low. Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower with Feb crude oil at a 5-1/2 year low and Feb gasoline at a 5-3/4 year low: CLG5 -2.29 (-4.74%), RBG5 -0.0487 (-3.66%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) the action by Goldman Sachs to lower its price forecast for WTI crude to $41 per barrel in 3 months, citing excess U.S. storage capacity and the likelihood for U.S. inventories to increase in the first half of this year.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/13/2015
US1000 ETNov JOLTS job openings expected 4.850 million, Oct 4.834 million.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETDec monthly budget statement expected +$3.000 billion, Nov -$56.818 billion.
1700 ETMinneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota discusses his 2015 outlook for the economy and monetary policy at an event in New York.
JPN0000 ETJapan Dec eco-watchers survey current expected +2.5 to 44.0, Nov 41.5. Dec eco-watchers survey outlook, Nov 44.0.
GER0200 ETGerman Dec wholesale price index, Nov -0.7% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Dec CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Nov -0.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Dec core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Nov +1.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. Dec RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.6% y/y, Nov +2.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK Dec PPI input prices expected -2.6% m/m and -11.6% y/y, Nov -1.0% m/m and -8.8% y/y
0430 ETUK Dec PPI output prices expected -0.3% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Nov +0.2% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Dec PPI output core expected -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Nov +0.5% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
0430 ETUK Nov ONS house prices expected +9.8% y/y, Oct +10.4% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
IHS IncIHS US6:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.551
IHS IncIHS US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Monster Beverage CorpMNST US16:15Investor MeetingY 2015
CSX CorpCSX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.49
Linear Technology CorpLLTC USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.491
GameStop CorpGME USDecember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
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