Wednesday, February 18th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.06% and European stocks are up +0.70% at a 6-1/2 year high on speculation Greece and its creditors may be moving toward a compromise. A rally in European bank stocks is leading the markets higher after a person familiar with the matter said Greece may seek a 6-month extension of a loan agreement as soon as today. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.18%, Hong Kong +0.19%, China, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia +0.98%, Singapore +0.58%, India +0.63%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 year high after the BOJ maintained record stimulus following its 2-day policy meeting and after BOJ Governor Kuroda pledged to adjust monetary policy if needed. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.70%) is down -1.44% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.20%) is down -0.71%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.26%) is down -0.29% at a 6-week low on optimism that Greece will ease a standoff with its creditors and before the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting that may signal the Fed is closer to raising interest rates. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.02%) is down -0.08%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) is up +0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks at a 6-week low.UK Jan jobless claims fell -38,600, more than expectations of -25,000 and the most in 7 months. The Jan claimant count rate fell -0.1 to 2.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 6-3/4 years.
The UK Dec ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 5.7% in the 3-months through Dec, better than expectations of unch at 5.8% and the lowest in 6-1/2 years.
Dec avg weekly earnings rose +2.1% 3-mon avg, more than expectations of +1.7% 3-mon avg and the most in 1-1/2 years. Dec avg weekly earnings ex-bonus rose +1.7% 3-mon avg, less than expectations of +1.8% 3-mon avg.
Eurozone Dec construction output fell -0.8% m/m and -3.5% y/y, with the -3.5% y/y drop the largest annual decline in 1-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Jan housing starts report is expected to show a -1.7% decline to 1.070 million, giving back a little of December’s +4.4% increase to 1.089 million. Today’s Jan final-demand PPI index is expected to fall to +0.4% y/y from +1.1% in December. Meanwhile, today’s Jan core PPI index is expected to edge lower to +2.0% y/y from +2.1% in December. Today’s Jan industrial production report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, recovering somewhat after the -0.1% decline seen in December. The FOMC today will release the minutes from the recent Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting, which was a relatively uneventful meeting.There are 1 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Marathon Oil (consensus $0.02), Williams Companies (0.24), Marriott (0.67), Duke Energy (0.88), Garmin (0.79), Fluor (1.10). Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference on Tue-Thu, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Duke Energy (DUK -0.56%) reported Q4 EPS of 87 cents, below consensus of 88 cents.Allegion PLC (ALLE -0.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, better than consensus of 68 cents.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.34%) fell over 2% in pre-market trading after Berkshire Hathaway announced it had exited its $3.7 billion investment in the company.
Owens & Minor (OMI -1.00%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, below consensus of 50 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.90-$1.95, at the low end of consensus of $1.95.
Valmont (VMI +0.85%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.62, less than consensus of $1.65.
Terex ({=TEX reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, higher than consensus of 68 cents.
CF Industries (CF -0.89%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $4.82, below consensus of $5.08.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH -0.71%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, less than consensus of 37 cents.
KAR Auction (KAR -0.11%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 40 cents, better than consensus of 29 cents.
Flowserve (FLS +0.46%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.16, above consensus of $1.13.
Analog Devices (ADI +3.09%) reported Q1 EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.
Jack in the Box (JACK +1.19%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 93 cents, higher than consensus of 87 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.85-$2.97, above consensus $2.84.
AMC Entertainment (AMC +0.91%) reported Q4 EPS of 30 cents, well above consensus of 20 cents.
Agilent (A +0.92%) reported Q1 EPS of 41 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.67- $1.73, on the low side of consensus at $1.73.
Fossil (FOSL +0.89%) reported Q4 EPS of $3.00, below consensus of $3.07, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to$5.45-$6.05, well below consensus of $7.54.
Rackspace (RAX -0.28%) reported Q4 EPS of 26 cents, above consensus of 19 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.06%) this morning are down -1.25 points (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted a new record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.16%, Dow Jones +0.16%, Nasdaq +0.03%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced Greek default concerns after an unconfirmed report that Greece’s government may request an extension of its loan agreement for 6 months, something it previously said it would not do, and (2) a rally in health-care stocks. Stocks had opened lower on bearish factors that included (1) the -2.17 point decline in the Feb Empire manufacturing index, weaker than expectations of -1.95 to 8.00, and (2) the unexpected -2 point decline in the Feb NAHB housing market index to 55, weaker than expectations of +1 to 58 and a 4-month low.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks at a 6-week low. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -31.50, FVH5 -15.50. Bearish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Mester who said that she sees June as a “viable option” for when to begin raising interest rates, and (2) fund selling of T-notes after a report that Greece will ask for a 6-month extension of its loan agreement, which reduced Greek default concerns and curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.24%) this morning is up +0.273 (+0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0039 (-0.34%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08 (+0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.140 (-0.15%), EUR/USD +0.00576 (+0.51%), USD/JPY +0.763 (+0.4%). Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD which rallied to a 1-week high after the German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose to a 1-year high, and (2) weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Feb Empire manufacturing and the Feb NAHB housing market index that may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.70%) this morning is down -77 cents (-1.44%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.20%) is down -0.0113 (-0.71%). Mar crude and Mar gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed: CLH5 +0.75 (+1.42%), RBH5 -0.0361 (-2.22%). Bullish factors included (1) the fall in the dollar index to a 1-week low, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Bearish factors included expectations that Thursday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies rose +3.0 million bbl to a record high of 420 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/18/2015
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.0% with purchase sub-index -6.5% and refi sub-index -10.3%. |
| 0830 ET | Jan housing starts expected -1.7% to 1.070 million, Dec +4.4% to 1.089 million. Jan building permits expected +1.0% to 1.069 million, Dec +0.6% to 1.058 million. | |
| 0830 ET | Jan PPI final demand expected -0.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Dec -0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y. Jan PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y. | |
| 0915 ET | Jan industrial production expected +0.3%, Dec -0.1%. Jan capacity utilization expected +0.2 to 79.9%, Dec -0.3 to 79.7%. | |
| 1400 ET | Minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Revised Japan Jan machine tool orders. |
| 1850 ET | Japan Jan trade balance expected -1.681 trillion yen, Dec -665.2 billion yen. Jan exports expected +13.5% y/y, Dec +12.8% y/y. Jan imports expected -4.9% y/y, Dec +1.9% y/y. | |
| 2330 ET | Japan Dec all-industry activity index expected -0.3% m/m, Nov +0.1% m/m. | |
| n/a | BOJ announces interest rate decision following 2-day policy meeting. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jan jobless claims change expected -25,000, Dec -29,700. Jan claimant count rate expected +2.5%, Dec 2.6%. |
| 0430 ET | UK Dec ILO unemployment rate expected 5.8% 3-months through Dec, previous 5.8% 3-months through Nov. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Dec avg weekly earnings expected +1.7% 3-mon avg, Nov +1.7% 3-mon avg. Dec weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.8% 3-mon avg, Nov +1.8% 3-mon avg. | |
| 0430 ET | BOE minutes from the Feb 4-5 policy meeting. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Dec construction output, Nov -0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/18/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NiSource Inc | NI US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.518 |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.102 |
| Allegion PLC | ALLE US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.68 |
| Actavis plc | ACT US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 3.906 |
| Garmin Ltd | GRMN US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.788 |
| Duke Energy Corp | DUK US | 7:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.879 |
| DENTSPLY International Inc | XRAY US | 7:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.608 |
| Allegion PLC | ALLE US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Actavis plc | ACT US | 8:30 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| DENTSPLY International Inc | XRAY US | 8:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| NiSource Inc | NI US | 9:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | 9:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| CF Industries Holdings Inc | CF US | 9:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| FirstEnergy Corp | FE US | 9:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Duke Energy Corp | DUK US | 10:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Vornado Realty Trust | VNO US | 10:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Garmin Ltd | GRMN US | 10:30 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Devon Energy Corp | DVN US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Flowserve Corp | FLS US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Nabors Industries Ltd | NBR US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Cimarex Energy Co | XEC US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Marriott International Inc/MD | MAR US | 17:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.65 |
| EOG Resources Inc | EOG US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.999 |
| Marathon Oil Corp | MRO US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.02 |
| Williams Cos Inc/The | WMB US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.235 |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | January 2015 Sales and Revenue Release | 2015 |
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