Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: PBCT

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Thursday, January 15, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/15

Thursday, January 15th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.11%) this morning are down -0.57% and European stocks are up +0.21%. The unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon the Swiss franc's cap against the euro roiled currency markets and sent Switzerland's SMI Stock Index down to a 2-3/4 month low. The franc surged as much as 27% against the dollar and soared to a record against the euro after the SNB unexpectedly ended its 3-year minimum exchange rate of 1.20 franc per euro. The move by the SNB comes one week before the ECB meeting where the ECB may implement QE, a move that may add to pressure on the franc against the euro. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.86%, Hong Kong +0.99%, China +2.90%, Taiwan -0.16%, Australia -0.42%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea -0.09%, India +2.66%. India's Sensex Stock Index soared over 2% to a 5-week high after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut interest rates. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 +1.42%) is down -0.45%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.04%) is down -1.46%. Feb gold (GCG15 +1.25%) is up +1.73% at a 2-3/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the move by the SNB to abandon its minimum exchange rate against the euro roiled currency markets. Mar copper (HGH15 +2.51%) is up +1.84%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) is down -0.39%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.70% at an 11-year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.73%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.06%) are up +9.5 ticks.
The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly ended its 3-year minimum exchange rate of 1.20 franc per euro and moved the target range for the 3-month Libor to between -1.25% and -0.25% from the current range of between -0.75% and 0.25%. The Swiss franc soared to a record 85.17 centimes per euro after the action and sent the Swiss Market Index tumbling 11% to a 2-3/4 month low.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75% from 8.00%, the first rate cut in 20 months, and RBI Governor Rajan said that inflation will probably be below 6.0% by Jan 2016.
China Dec new yuan loans increased by 697.3 billion yuan, less than expectations of 880.0 billion yuan.
Japan Dec PPI fell -0.4% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the fifth consecutive month that producer prices have remained unchanged or declined. On an annual basis, Dec PPY rose +1.9% y/y, less than expectations of +2.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months.
Japan Nov machine orders rose +1.3% m/m and fell -14.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.4% m/m and -6.3% y/y with the -14.6% y/y drop the largest annual decline in 5 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small decline of -2,000 and today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -52,000 to 2.400 million. Today’s Dec final-demand PPI is expected to ease to +1.0% y/y from Nov’s +1.4% thanks mostly to the plunge in oil and gasoline prices. Today’s Jan NY Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions report is expected to show a +8.58 point increase to 5.00, climbing back into positive territory after Dec’s -13.74 point plunge to a 2-year low of -3.58. Meanwhile, today’s Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is expected to show a -5.6 point decline to 18.7, adding to December’s -15.9 point decline to 24.3.
There are 9 the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Citigroup (consensus $0.09), Intel (0.66), Bank of America (0.31), Lennar (0.96), Schlumberger (1.46). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Biomarkers from Research to Clinic Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Goldman Sachs downgraded Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.73%) to 'Sell' from 'Neutral.'
Goldman Sachs upgraded Eli Lilly (LLY +0.55%) to 'Neutral' from 'Sell.'
Fastenal (FAST -2.07%) reported Q4 EPS of 40 cents, right on consensus.
Bank of America (BAC -2.49%) reported Q4 EPS of 32 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.
BlackRock (BLK -0.64%) reported Q4 EPS of $4.82, higher than consensus of $5.68.
Lennar (LEN -1.12%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.09, better than consensus of 96 cents.
Adobe Systems (ADBE -0.85%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a $2.0 billion stock repurchase plan through fiscal 2017.
Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.07%) was awarded a $963.5M government contract for intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, ground subsystems support.
Ashland (ASH -0.59%) Was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $146.
BlackBerry (BBRY +29.76%) slumped 15% in after-hours trading after it denied a Reuters reports that it was approached by Samsung SSNLF about a potential takeover.
Sanders Capital reported a 5.58% passive stake in D.R. Horton (DHI +1.29%) , a 8.53% passive stake in Ryland Group (RYL +0.41%) and a 10.84% passive stake in Meritage Homes (MTH -1.97%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.11%) this morning are down -11.50 points (-0.57%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday tumbled to a 4-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -1.06%, Nasdaq -0.49%. Bearish factors included (1) concern about a global economic slowdown after the World Bank cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to +3.0% from +3.4%, saying risks to the global economy are “significant and tilted to the downside,” and (2) the -0.9% drop in U.S. Dec retail sales, weaker than expectations of -0.1% and the biggest decline in 11 months, and the -1.0% plunge in Dec retail sales ex-autos, weaker than expectations of unch and the largest decline in 5-3/4 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.06%) this morning are up +9.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday rose to a contract high and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 year low of 1.78%. Closes: TYH5 +14.50, FVH5 +9.50. Bullish factors included (1) concern about a global economic slowdown after the World Bank lowered its 2015 global GDP forecast, and (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Dec retail sales report, which may prompt the Fed to delay an interest rate hike.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.45%) this morning is down -0.359 (-0.39%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0082 (-0.70%) at an 11-year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.86 (-0.73%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.149 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.00166 (+0.14%), USD/JPY -0.602 (-0.51%). Bearish factors included (1) the bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. Dec retail sales, which fueled speculation the Fed may delay a rate hike, and (2) the slide in USD/JPY to a 4-week low as a sell-off in global stocks boosted safe-haven demand for the yen.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 +1.42%) this morning is down -22 cents (-0.45%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -0.04%) is down -0.0197 (-1.46%). Feb crude oil and Feb gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply higher: CLG5 +2.59 (+5.64%), RBG5 +0.0848 (+6.69%). The main bullish factor was a weaker dollar that spurred short covering. Bearish factors included (1) the +5.39 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to a 6-1/2 month high of 387.8 million bbl, more than expectations of +1.75 million bbl, (2) the +1.7 million bbl jump in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to 33.9 million bbl, a 10-1/2 month high, and (3) the +0.7% increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jan 9 to 9.192 million bpd, the highest in over 40 years.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/15/2015

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 292,000, previous -4,000 to 294,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -52,000 to 2.400 million, previous +101,000 to 2.452 million.
	0830 ET	Jan Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions expected +8.58 to 5.00, Dec -3.58.
	0830 ET	Dec final demand PPI expected -0.4% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Dec final demand PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +1.8% y/y.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1000 ET	Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -5.6 to 18.7, Dec 24.3.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Nov trade balance expected +20.0 billion euros, Oct +19.4 billion euros.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Nov tertiary industry index expected +0.2% m/m, Oct -0.2% m/m.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/15/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
BlackRock Inc	BLK US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	4.679
First Republic Bank/CA	FRC US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.716
Lennar Corp	LEN US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.96
Bank of America Corp	BAC US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.313
Commerce Bancshares Inc/MO	CBSH US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.659
Fastenal Co	FAST US	7:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.395
Citigroup Inc	C US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.088
PPG Industries Inc	PPG US	8:11	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.988
Bank of America Corp	BAC US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
BlackRock Inc	BLK US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc	MSM US	9:00	Annual General Meeting
NRG Energy Inc	NRG US	9:00	Investor Meeting - Day 2	Y 2015
Fastenal Co	FAST US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Greif Inc	GEF US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
First Republic Bank/CA	FRC US	10:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Lennar Corp	LEN US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Citigroup Inc	C US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Citigroup Inc	C US	11:30	TMAC Presents John Landry: Top Issues Facing Treasury Departments in 2015
PPG Industries Inc	PPG US	14:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
People's United Financial Inc	PBCT US	16:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.211
Intel Corp	INTC US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
People's United Financial Inc	PBCT US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Schlumberger Ltd	SLB US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.459
Intel Corp	INTC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.659
Best Buy Co Inc	BBY US		Q4 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	Q4 2015

Monday, July 15, 2013

Large Cap Financial Soaring

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 500 Large Cap Index to find the best technical indicators and charts and found the financials still at the top of my list. The list includes Cigna (CI), U S Bancorp (UBS), Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK), M&T Bank (MT) and People's United Financial (PBCT):

Cigna (CI)