Tuesday, July 26, 2016

MORNING CALL 7/26

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 -0.08%) this morning are little changed as the market awaits tomorrow's outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today. The chances are virtually zero for a Fed rate hike but the market is still a little nervous that the FOMC may adopt slightly more hawkish language in its post-meeting statement. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is mildly lower by -0.19%. Japanese stocks today closed down -1.43% after Japanese Finance Aso poured cold water on hopes for a big fiscal stimulus program when he said that the government will "leave actual policy measures to the BOJ." Other Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher: Hong Kong +0.62%, China Shanghai +1.14%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia +0.07%, Singapore +0.12%, South Korea +0.83%, India -0.42%, Turkey -0.48%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.23%) this morning is mildly lower by -0.27% this morning. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0012 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is sharply lower by -1.42 yen (-1.34%) on Japanese Finance Minister Aso's comments that dampened hopes for an aggressive new round of Japanese fiscal stimulus. The BOJ meets later this week. Sterling is down -0.1% this morning after BOE MPC member Martin Weale said in an interview with the Financial Times that he favors immediate monetary stimulus because Brexit has shaken the UK economy more than he expected. The market is widely expecting the BOE at its meeting next week to cut interest rates by 25 bp from 0.50% in response to Brexit.
Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.09%) this morning are up +3 ticks as the market awaits Wednesday's FOMC announcement.
Commodity prices this morning are little changed on net. Sep WTI crude oil (CLU16 -1.16%) is down -0.43 (-1.00%) and Sep gasoline (RBU16 -1.44%) is down -0.0174 (-1.30%) on a continued slide on high crude oil and product inventories and the 2-month rise in U.S. active oil rigs that will boost U.S. oil production. Metals prices are mixed with some support from the weaker dollar index. Aug gold (GCQ16 +0.01%) is up +0.9 (+0.07), Sep silver (SIU16+0.24%) is up +0.068 (+0.35%), and Sep copper (HGU16 -0.43%) is down -0.007 (-0.32%). Grains this morning are mixed with Dec corn down -0.25(-0.07%), Sep soybeans up +7.00 (+0.72%), and Sep wheat down -2.75 (-0.64%). Softs this morning are trading higher with some support from the weaker dollar: Oct sugar +0.11 (+0.55%), Sep coffee +1.10 (+0.78%), Sep cocoa +6 (+0.21%), and Dec cotton +0.35 (+0.48%).
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.2% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.45% m/m and +5.44% y/y), (2) prelim-Jul Markit services PMI (expected +0.6 to 52.0, Jun 51.4. Jul Markit composite PMI, Jun 51.2), (3) Jul consumer confidence from the Conference Board (expected -2.5 to 95.5, Jun +5.6 to 98.0), (4) Jul Richmond Fed manufacturing survey (expected +3 to -4, Jun -6 to -7), (5) Jun new home sales (expected +1.6% to 560,000, May -6.0% to 551,000), (6) FOMC begins 2-day meeting, and (7) Treasury auctions $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
There are 46 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Apple (consensus $1.39), Caterpillar (0.96), Verizon (0.92), McDonalds (1.39), Under Amour (0.03).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Kadmon Holdings (KDMN).
Equity conferences this week include: none.
Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are little changed as the market awaits the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today. Monday's closes: S&P 500-0.30%, Dow Jones -0.42%, Nasdaq -0.05%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on concern that the FOMC at its Tue-Wed meeting might adopt more hawkish language and on long liquidation pressure after the sharp rally seen in the first half of July. Stocks were also undercut by weakness in energy producers after the -2.4% sell-off in Sep crude oil prices.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
  • Today is a big day for earnings results with 46 of the SPX companies scheduled to report.
  • Positive earnings results so far this morning include du Pont (DD +0.66%) (1.24 vs consensus of 1.10), Centene (CNC -0.17%) (1.10 vs 1.09), Avery Denison (AVY -0.47%) (1.09 vs 1.01), Waters Corp (WAT -0.64%) (1.58 vs 1.45), DTE Energy (DTE -0.59%) (0.98 vs 0.89), United Technologies ({=UTX) (1.82 vs 1.68), Baxter (BAX -0.47%) (0.46 vs 0.40), Verizon (VZ -0.41%) (0.94 vs 0.92), Masco (MAS +1.30%) (0.46 vs 0.43), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS -0.10%) (0.90 vs 0.87), Valero (VLO +0.82%) (1.07 vs 0.99).
  • Negative earnings results this morning include Reynolds American (RAI +0.04%) (0.58 vs 0.61), Starwood (HOT +0.18%) (0.71 vs 0.73), KeyCorp (KEY-1.10%) (0.27 vs 0.28), Nielsen (NLSN -1.06%) (0.71 vs 0.715), and Under Armour (UA +1.73%) (0.01 vs 0.04).
  • Annheuser-Busch InBev (ABI Euronext) raised its offer for SABMiller Plc (SAB London) by 2.3% to 79 billion pounds to account for the Brexit-related plunge in sterling.
  • Commerzbank AG (CMZB) is down nearly 5% this morning after reporting a deterioration of a capital strength ratio and helped drag down other European banks ahead of Friday's stress-test results.
  • CoreLogic (CLGX -0.69%) rallied +6% in after-hours trading on positive earnings results along with higher 2016 guidance and a boost in full-year repurchase target.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN +1.11%) rallied +5% in after-hours trading on positive earnings results of 76 cents vs expectations of 72 cents.
  • Celgene (CELG +0.38%) fell -3% in after-hours trading on disappointing news about its "Remarc" product.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.01%) rallied +3% in after-hours trading despite weaker-than-expected earnings results as the company indicated a possible turnaround in Macau.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD +2.31%) fell -4% in after-hours trading after reducing its 2016 sales forecast.
  • MB Financial (MBFI +0.26%) will replace First Niagra (FNFG) in the S&P MidCap 400.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep 10-year T-note prices this morning up 3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU6 -2, FVU6 -3. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed mildly lower on supply overhang amidst this week's $103 billion T-note package and on some concern that the FOMC at its Tue-Wed meeting might adopt more hawkish language in its post-meeting statement. T-notes found some support from the mild sell-off in stocks and on the -2.6% drop in crude oil prices, which pushed the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate lower by -2 bp to 1.50%.
The dollar index this morning is mildly lower by -0.27% mainly due to yen strength as USD/JPY fell sharply by -1.42 yen (-1.34%) on reduced hopes for a large Japanese fiscal stimulus package. Monday's closes: Dollar index -0.18 (-0.19%), EUR/USD +0.0018 (+0.16%), USD/JPY -0.32 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Monday edged to a new 4-1/2 month high but fell back and closed mildly lower. The dollar was undercut by some long liquidation pressure in the dollar index after posting a new 4-1/2 month high. In addition, EUR/USD saw some strength on the stronger-than-expected German IFO business climate index, which fell -0.4 points to 108.3, stronger than market expectations of -1.2 to 107.5. The dollar index found some support on the possibility that the FOMC in its post-meeting statement to be released on Wednesday might adopt slightly more hawkish language.
Sep WTI crude oil is down -0.43 (-1.00%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0174 (-1.30%) on a continued slide on high crude oil and product inventories and the 2-month rise in U.S. active oil rigs that will boost U.S. oil production. Monday's closes: CLU6 -1.06 (-2.40%), RBU6 -0.0280 (-2.06%). Sep crude oil and gasoline closed sharply lower on Monday on technical selling with a new 3-month low in Sep crude oil and on carry-over pressure from last Friday's Baker Hughes report that the number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by +14 rigs to 371, bringing the 8-week upward rebound to a total of +55 rigs (+17.4%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/26/2016
Tuesday, July 26
US0900 ETMay S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.2% m/m and +5.6% y/y, Apr +0.45% m/m and +5.44% y/y.
0945 ETPrelim-Jul Markit services PMI expected +0.6 to 52.0, Jun 51.4. Jul Markit composite PMI, Jun 51.2.
1000 ETJul consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -2.5 to 95.5, Jun +5.6 to 98.0.
1000 ETJul Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expected +3 to -4, Jun -6 to -7.
1000 ETJun new home sales expected +1.6% to 560,000, May -6.0% to 551,000.
1030 ETFOMC begins 2-day meeting.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $34 billion of 5-year T-notes.
CHI2130 ETChina Jun industrial profits, Jun +3.7% y/y.
2145 ETChina Jul Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment, Jun +1.7 to 115.9.
Wednesday, July 27
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.3% with purchase sub-index -2.0% and refi sub-index down -0.9%.
0830 ETJun durable goods orders expected -1.1% and +0.3% ex-transportation, May -2.3% and -0.3% ex-transportation. Jun capital goods orders nondefense ex-aircraft expected +0.4%, May -0.4%.
1000 ETJun pending home sales expected +1.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, May -3.7% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $15 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes.
1400 ETFOMC announces interest rate decision; 0.25%-0.50% fed funds rate target expected unchanged.
GER0200 ETGerman Jun import price index expected +0.6% m/m and -4.6% y/y, May +0.9% m/m and -5.5% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Aug GfK consumer confidence expected -0.2 to 9.9, Jul +0.3 to 10.1.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Jun M3 money supply, May +4.9% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Q2 GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +2.1% y/y, Q1 +0.4% q/q and +2.0% y/y.
0430 ETUK May index of services expected +0.1% m/m and +0.3% 3-mo/3-mo, Apr +0.6% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo.
0600 ETUK Jul CBI retailing reported sales expected -3 to 1, Jun -3 to 4
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/26/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Baxter International IncBAXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.396
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.008
TEGNA IncTGNABef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.474
McDonald's CorpMCDBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.385
United Technologies CorpUTXBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.681
KeyCorpKEYBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.276
Waters CorpWATBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.447
Valero Energy CorpVLOBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.993
Reynolds American IncRAIBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.608
DTE Energy CoDTEBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.888
Fidelity National Information Services IncFISBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.867
Nielsen Holdings PLCNLSNBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.716
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD6:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.101
Centene CorpCNC6:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.084
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide IncHOT6:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Eli Lilly & CoLLY6:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.856
Avery Dennison CorpAVY6:45Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.014
Masco CorpMAS7:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.426
Under Armour IncUA7:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.032
Verizon Communications IncVZ7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.921
Caterpillar IncCAT7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.959
3M CoMMM7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.063
T Rowe Price Group IncTROW7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.725
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Masco CorpMAS8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PACCAR IncPCAR8:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.023
Waters CorpWAT8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Nielsen Holdings PLCNLSN8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Baxter International IncBAX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Verizon Communications IncVZ8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
United Technologies CorpUTX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Express Scripts Holding CoESRX8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Centene CorpCNC8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Under Armour IncUA8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Eli Lilly & CoLLY9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
3M CoMMM9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
KeyCorpKEY9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Reynolds American IncRAI9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
DTE Energy CoDTE9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
TEGNA IncTGNA10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Legg Mason IncLM10:00Annual General Meeting
Avery Dennison CorpAVY11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Caterpillar IncCAT11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
McDonald's CorpMCD11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
AvalonBay Communities IncAVB11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Valero Energy CorpVLO11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PACCAR IncPCAR12:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM16:01Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.636
Anadarko Petroleum CorpAPC16:05Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.743
Robert Half International IncRHI16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.699
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP16:15Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.26
Apple IncAAPL16:30Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.389
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM16:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
CR Bard IncBCR17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Robert Half International IncRHI17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Total System Services IncTSS17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Apple IncAAPL17:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Illumina IncILMN17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Juniper Networks IncJNPR17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
CR Bard IncBCRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.469
Total System Services IncTSSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.72
UDR IncUDRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.442
Universal Health Services IncUHSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.938
Cincinnati Financial CorpCINFAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.467
Linear Technology CorpLLTCAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.534
Range Resources CorpRRCAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2016-0.185
Zions BancorporationZIONAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.411
Chubb LtdCBAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.211
Equity ResidentialEQRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.76
Citrix Systems IncCTXSAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.142
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRWAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.003
Illumina IncILMNAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.733
Juniper Networks IncJNPRAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.47
Assurant IncAIZAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.388
Citrix Systems IncCTXS17:15Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Zions BancorporationZION17:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Boston Properties IncBXP18:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.391
Alaska Air Group IncALKExtraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2016
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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