Monday, May 9th, 2016View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.29%) are up +0.24% and European stocks are up +1.48% as a +2.15% rally in crude oil (CLM16 +1.34%) boosts energy producing stocks. The ongoing wildfire in Alberta, Canada has cut Canadian oil production by about 1 million bpd and has underpinned oil prices. Another positive for European stocks was the bigger-than-expected increase in Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence. On the negative side, however, copper prices (HGN16 -1.51%) dropped -1.53% to a 3-1/2 week low which has undercut mining stocks with Rio Tinto Group and Glencore Plc both down at last 3%. In addition, China Apr exports unexpectedly fell and China Apr imports fell for the 18th month in a row. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.68%, Hong Kong +0.23%, China -2.79%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore +1.29%, South Korea -0.44%, India +1.82%. Chinese stocks were pressured by the weak Chinese trade data as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-3/4 month low, while Japanese stocks finished higher as exporters rallied after USD/JPY climbed to a 1-week high, which improves the earnings prospects of exporter companies.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) is up +0.13% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.88% at a 1-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.12%) are up +1.5 ticks.
Speaking at the International Financial Services Forum in London, Chicago Fed President Evans said that U.S. economic fundamentals are "good" and "wait and see" stance for monetary policy is appropriate. He said the U.S. economy should grow at a 2.5% pace for the rest of 2016, which "should support a gradual resumption of U.S. policy rate increases later this year."
New York Fed President Dudley said that while Friday's U.S. employment report was "a touch softer," it won't affect his economic outlook and that it remains a "reasonable expectation" that the Fed will raise interest rates twice this year.
The Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence rose +0.5 to 6.2, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 6.0.
The China Apr trade balance widened to a surplus of +$45.56 billion, bigger than expectations of +$40.00 billion. Apr exports unexpectedly fell -1.8%y/y weaker than expectations of no change, and Apr imports fell -10.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on a panel with ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio at the International Financial Services Forum in London, (2) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon.
There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.96), HCP (0.69), AES (0.20), Xcel Energy (0.47), International Flavors & Fragrances (1.40), Dun & Bradstreet (0.97).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley E&P and Oil Services Conference on Mon, Deutsche Bank Clean Tech, Utilities and Power Conference on Mon, Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference on Tue, Credit Suisse REIT Conference on Tue, Wells Fargo Securities Gaming, Leisure & Restaurants Conference on Tue, Sterne Agee CRT Business Services Conference on Tue, The Boston Industrial and Environmental Services Conference on Tue, Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Industrial and Construction Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Mitsubishi UFJ Oil & Gas Conference on Thu, Morgan Stanley Refining Corporate Access Day on Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Investor Day on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tyson Foods (TSN +1.31%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.07, higher than consensus of 96 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to $4.20-$4.30 from a prior estimate of $3.85-$3.95, above consensus of $4.06.
Altria Group (MO +0.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus Research with a price target of $68.
LabStyle Innovations (DRIO +3.45%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Rodman & Renshaw with a 12-month price target of $12.
Silver Wheaton (SLW +2.74%) reported Q1 EPS of 10 cents, below consensus of 12 cents.
LendingClub (LC +3.65%) slumped 16% in pre-market trading after CEO Renaud Laplanch resigned following an internal review of $22 million in near-prime loans to a single investor.
Flotek Industries (FTK +1.13%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Speculative Buy' ay Seaport Global Securities with a 12-month price target of $13.
Comerica (CMA unch) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.
Kronos Worldwide (KRO +4.38%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -3 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -13 cents,
Apollo Education Group (APOL +1.47%) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after Apollo Education shareholders approved a $10 a share offer from a group led by Apollo Global Management.
Beazer Homes (BZH +0.42%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after the chairman of the company, Stephen Zelnak, disclosed a purchase of 55,000 shares May 4-5.
NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF +2.28%) jumped almost 6% in after-hours trading after Colony Capital said it is in exclusive negotiations with NorthStar Asset Management Group and NRF for a tri-party all stock "at the market" business combination.
NorthStar Asset Management Group (NSAM +1.01%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after Colony Capital said it is in exclusive negotiations with NSAM and NorthStar Realty for a tri-party all stock "at the market" business combination.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.29%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.24%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.32%, Dow Jones +0.45%, Nasdaq +0.48%. The S&P 500 on Friday rebounded from a 1-month low and closed higher on reduced interest rate concerns as the weaker than expected U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls may keep the Fed from raising interest rates this year. Stocks also received a boost from the +$29.647 billion increase in U.S. Mar consumer credit, much stronger than expectations of +$16.0 billion and the largest increase on record (data from 1943). Stocks were undercut by the weak +160,000 April payroll report and by Friday's -2.82% drop in the Shanghai Composite to a 2-week low.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.12%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYM6 -6.50, FVM6 -3.50. Jun T-notes on Friday retreated from a 3-1/2 week high and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stocks recovered from an early 1-month low. T-notes initially rallied to a 3-1/2 week high after U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.19%) this morning is up +0.126 (+0.13% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.13%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.94 (+0.88%) at a 1-week high. Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.601 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0001 (-0.01%), USD/JPY-0.14 (-0.13%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Apr average hourly earnings report and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar consumer credit report of +$29.674 billion.
June WTI crude oil (CLM16 +1.34%) this morning is up +96 cents (+2.15%). June gasoline (RBM16 +0.29%) is up +0.0126 (+0.84%). Friday's closes: CLM6 +0.34 (+0.77%), RBM6 +0.0048 (+0.32%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Friday recovered from early losses and closed higher on the outlook for reduced U.S. oil production after Baker Hughes reported a -4 rig drop in the number of active U.S. oil rigs to a 6-1/2 year low of 328 rigs. Gains were limited by the weak U.S. payroll report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/09/2016
| US | 0510 ET | Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on a panel with ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio at the International Financial Services Forum in London. |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1300 ET | Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA Weekly Crop Progress. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Japan Apr consumer confidence index expected -1.0 to 40.7, Mar 41.7. |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Mar factory orders expected +0.6% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Feb -1.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y. |
| EUR | 0430 ET | Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence expected +0.3 to 6.0, Apr 5.7. |
| UK | 0330 ET | UK Apr Halifax house prices expected -0.3% m/m and +9.6% 3-mon y/y, Mar +2.6% m/m and +10.1% 3-mon y/y. |
| 1901 ET | UK Apr BRC sales like-for-like expected +0.5% y/y, Mar -0.7% y/y. | |
| CHI | 2130 ET | China Apr CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Mar +2.3% y/y. Apr PPI expected -3.7% y/y, Mar -4.3% y/y. |
| n/a | China Apr new yuan loans expected +815.0 billion yuan, Mar +1.37 trillion yuan. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/09/2016
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCP Inc | HCP US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.69 |
| AES Corp/VA | AES US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.203 |
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.465 |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | 7:30 | Q2 2016 Earnings Release | Q2 2016 | 0.955 |
| Pitney Bowes Inc | PBI US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2016 | |
| AES Corp/VA | AES US | 9:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | 9:00 | Q2 2016 Earnings Call | Q2 2016 | |
| Masco Corp | MAS US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | 10:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Martin Marietta Materials Inc | MLM US | 11:00 | Analyst and Investor Day | Y 2016 | |
| HCP Inc | HCP US | 12:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| International Paper Co | IP US | 12:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Baxter International Inc | BAX US | 13:00 | Investor Conference | Y 2016 | |
| Gap Inc/The | GPS US | 16:15 | April 2016 Sales and Revenue Release | 2016 | |
| International Flavors & Fragrances Inc | IFF US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 1.4 |
| Dun & Bradstreet Corp/The | DNB US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.969 |
