Thursday, March 26, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/26

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.66%) this morning are down -0.63% and European stocks are down -1.17%, both at 1-1/2 week lows, after Saudi Arabia led a coalition of 10 Sunni-ruled nations in air strikes against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen. Airline stocks are lower in pre-market trading as crude oil surged to a 2-1/2 week high. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.39%, Hong Kong -0.13%, China +0.24%, Taiwan -0.50%, Australia -1.58%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea -1.14%, India -2.33%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. May crude oil (CLK15 +4.10%) is up +3.70% and May gasoline (RBK15 +2.07%) is up +1.77%, both at 2-1/2 week highs, on concern the Yemen conflict could disrupt global crude oil supplies. Yemen is located on the Bab el-Mandeb strait that links the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, the fourth-biggest chokepoint for crude supplies in the world. According to the EIA, about 3.8 million bpd passed through Bab el-Mandeb in 2013 and a closure of the strait would force tankers to sail around the southern tip of Africa to reach European, North American and South American markets. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.94%) is up +0.86% at a 3-week high on increased safe-haven demand due to an escalation of violence in Yemen. May copper (HGK15 +1.50%) is up +1.49%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.47%) is down -0.51% at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.35% at a 3-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.65% at a 1-month low as the conflict in Yemen boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.02%) are up +4.5 ticks.
German Apr GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 10.0, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 9.8 and the highest since the data series began in 2005.
Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +4.0% y/y and +3.8% 3-mon avg, weaker than expectations of +4.3% y/y and +4.0% 3-mon avg.
UK Feb retail sales ex-autos rose +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y. Feb retail sales including autos rose +0.7% m/m and +5.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
U.S. economic reports today include (1) today's weekly unemployment claims report (initial claims expected -1,000 to 290,000 and continuing claims expected -17,000 to 2.400 million), and (2) today's preliminary-March Markit U.S. services PMI (expected -0.1 to 57.0). There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Accenture (consensus $1.07), ConAgra Foods (0.52), Signet Jewelers (3.04), GameStop (2.16). U.S. IPOs that price today include: SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), and Jernigan Capital (JCAP). U.S. IPOs that start trading today include: Franklin Financial Network (FRFN). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Leerink Booth Tours At American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons on Wed-Thu, CIBC Real Estate Conference on Thu, Nomura - Conference: Global Chemicals Industry Leaders Conference - London on Thu, Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu, Gabelli Specialty Chemicals Conference on Thu.



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
SanDisk (SNDK -4.21%) lowered Q1 revenue guidance to $1.3 billion from $1.4 billion-$1.45 billion, below consensus of $1.44 billion.
ConAgra Foods (CAG +0.90%) reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, higher thah consensus of 52 cents.
Accenture PLC (ACN -1.34%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.08, better than consensus of $1.07.
Charles Schwab (SCHW -1.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at Barclays.
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS -0.57%) and Con-way (CNW -1.50%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
lululemon (LULU -3.70%) reported Q4 EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus of 73 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.85-$1.90, below consensus of $2.06.
ASML ({=ASML was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Man Group reported a 5.6% passive stake in 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS -4.83%) .
LifePoint (LPNT -2.30%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Mizuho.
Red Hat (RHT -1.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 43 cents, above consensus of 41 cents.
Verint Systems (VRNT -1.08%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.19, better than consensus of $1.15, but thenlowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.55-$3.75, below consensus of $3.76.
PVH Corp. (PVH +0.43%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.76, higher than consensus of $1.73, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $6.75-$6.90, below consensus of $7.37.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.66%) this morning are down -13.00 points (-0.63%) at a 1-1/2 week low. Wednesday's Closes: S&P 500 -1.46%, Dow Jones -1.62%, Nasdaq -2.30%. The stock market on Wednesday sold-off sharply with the S&P 500 at a 1-week low after U.S. Feb durable goods orders unexpectedly declined (-1.4% and -0.4% ex transportation vs. expectations of +0.2% and +0.2% ex transportation). Another negative for equites was the slide in technology stocks led by losses in Microsoft, Intel and Micron Technology.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.02%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Wednesday's Closes: TYM5 -9.00, FVM5 -6.00. Jun T-notes climbed to a 1-1/2 month high after U.S. Feb durable goods orders unexpectedly declined and after Chicago Fed President Evans said he sees no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions until" it's clear that inflation will reach the Fed's 2.0% target within one or two years. T-note prices erased their gains and closed lower, however, on weak demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35, below the 12-auction average of 2.68 and the lowest since July 2009.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.47%) this morning is down -0.494 (-0.51%) at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +00038 (+0.35%) at a 3-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.78 (-0.65%) at a 1-month low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar index -0.214 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.00458 (+0.42%), USD/JPY -0.263 (-0.22%). The dollar closed lower yesterday on negative factors that included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb durable goods orders, which may delay Fed rate hikes, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said inflation remains too low to justify an interest rate increase this year.
May WTI crude oil (CLK15 +4.10%) this morning is up +$1.82 a barrel (+3.70%) and May gasoline (RBK15 +2.07%) is up +0.0324 (+1.77%), both at 2-1/2 week highs. Wednesday's closes: CLK5 +1.70 (+3.58), RBK5 +0.0302 (+1.68%). May crude and gasoline posted 1-1/2 week highs and closed higher. A weaker dollar boosted energy prices despite bearish factors that included (1) the +8.17 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 466.7 million bbl, more than expectations of +4.75 million bbl and the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982, and (2) the +1.9 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to a record 56.3 million bbl (data since 2004).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/26/2015
US0435 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers a public lecture at an event in Frankfurt on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 290,000, previous +1,000 to 291,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -17,000 to 2.400 million, previous -11,000 to 2.417 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Engage International Investment Education Symposium in Detroit.
0945 ETPreliminary Markit Mar services PMI expected -0.1 to 57.0, Feb +2.9 to 57.1.
1100 ETMar Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity survey expected unch at 1, Feb -2 to 1.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
GER0300 ETGerman Apr GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 9.8, Mar 9.7.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Feb M3 money supply expected +4.3% y/y and 4.0% 3-mon avg, Jan +4.1% y/y and +3.6% 3-mon avg.
n/aECB President Mario Draghi will address Italys Lower House Finance, Budget and European Affairs Committees.
UK0530 ETUK Feb retail sales ex-autos expected +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y, Jan -0.7% m/m and +4.8% y/y. Feb retail sales including autos expected +0.4% m/m and +4.7% y/y, Jan -0.3% m/m and +5.4% y/y.
0700 ETUK Mar CBI reported sales expected +17 to 18, Feb 1.
JPN1930 ETJapan Feb jobless rate expected -0.1 to 3.5%, Jan 3.6%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.15, Jan 1.14.
1930 ETJapan Feb overall household spending expected -3.2% y/y, Jan -5.1% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Feb national CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Jan +2.4% y/y. Feb national CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.1% y/y, Jan +2.2% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.1% y/y, Jan +2.1% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Mar Tokyo CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Feb +2.3% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.2% y/y, Feb +2.2% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +1.7% y/y, Feb 1.7% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Feb retail sales expected +0.9% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Jan -1.9% m/m and -2.0% y/y.
CHI2130 ETChina Feb industrial profits, Jan -8.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/26/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US7:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20153.038
Accenture PLCACN US7:01Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.072
ConAgra Foods IncCAG US7:30Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.52
Accenture PLCACN US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
ConAgra Foods IncCAG US9:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Sempra EnergySRE US13:00Analyst ConferenceY 2015
GameStop CorpGME US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
GameStop CorpGME USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.164
VeriFone Systems IncPAY USAnnual General Meeting
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