BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/24

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.06%) this morning are up +0.04% and European stocks are down -0.24% in uninspired holiday trade with most markets closing early for Christmas Eve. U.S. and European markets will also be closed for the Christmas holiday on Thursday. European stocks fell back after France reported Nov jobless claims rose 27,400, or +0.8%, to a record 3.49 million, as France's economy continues to struggle. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.24%, Hong Kong +0.07%, China -2.84%, Taiwan +0.97%, Australia +0.25%, Singapore +0.40%, South Korea +0.41%, India -1.08%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high on the heels of a rally in the S&P 500 Tuesday to a record high. China's Shanghai Stock Index slipped to a 1-week low after the action by some brokerages in China to raise the threshold for margin trading prompted profit-taking from the recent run up in prices to a 4-3/4 year high. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.12%) is down -1.59%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.29%) is down -1.60%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.05%) is down -0.10%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.45%) is down -0.54%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.19%) is down -0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.22%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.23%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.02%) are up +2 ticks.
Eurozone banks borrowed 23 million euros overnight from the ECB on Dec 23 from the previous day, the lowest since Dec 19. Eurozone banks deposited 37.9 billion euros overnight at the ECB on Dec 23, the lowest in one week. The ECB's current account holdings rose to 265.1 billion euros on Dec 23, the most in 11-1/2 months.
Japan Dec small business confidence fell -1.0 point to 46.7, the lowest in 7 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a slight +1,000 gain to 290,000 after last week’s -6,000 decline to 289,000.  Meanwhile, today's continuing claims report is expected to show a +2,000 increase to 2.375 million after last week’s -147,000 decline to 2.373 million.  The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.  None of the the Russell 3000 companies report earnings today.  There are no equity conferences this week.  

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

BAE Systems (BAESY +0.07%) was awarded a contract worth up to $1.2 billion from the U.S. Army for the manufacturing and development of 289 Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicles, or AMPVs.
Virgin America (VA -0.36%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $44,
Sy Jacobs reported a 9.2% passive stake in Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC -2.53%) .
Perry Ellis (PERY -0.20%) files to sell 1.5 million shares of common stock for holders.
Oz Management reported a 5.39% passive stake in Qunar (QUNR -1.19%) .
The WSJ reported that Sony (SNE +0.38%) is mulling sale of its music publishing business that owns the copyrights to most of the Beatles’ songs and is estimated to be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.
Canaan VII LP reported a 12.6% stake in LendingClub (LC -4.07%) .
Gabelli reported a 5.86% stake in Volcano (VOLC +0.22%) .
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM +0.64%) reported Q2 EPS of 76 cents, weaker than consensus of 85 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.06%) this morning are up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rallied to a new all-time high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.17%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Nasdaq -0.33%. Bullish factors included (1) the upward revision to U.S. Q3 GDP to +5.0% (q/q annualized, stronger than expectations of +4.3% and the fastest pace of expansion in 11 years, (2) the +0.6% increase in U.S. Nov personal spending, stronger than expectations of +0.5%, and (3) benign inflation pressures after the PCE core deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, eased to +1.4% y/y from Oct’s +1.5%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.02%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: TYH5 -22.50, FVH5 -10.75. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected upward revision to U.S. Q3 GDP, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov personal spending, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, which curbed safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.19%) this morning is down -0.158 (-0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0027 (+0.22%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28 (-0.23%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to an 8-1/2 year and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.294 (+0.33%), EUR/USD -0.00575 (-0.47%), USD/JPY +0.64 (+0.53%). Bullish factors included (1) the upward revision in U.S. Q3 GDP to +5.0%, the fastest pace in 11 years, and (2) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov personal spending. The dollar came off of its best levels after Nov durable goods orders and Nov new home sales both unexpectedly declined.
Feb WTI crude oil (CLG15 -2.12%) this morning is down 91 cents (-1.59%) and Feb gasoline (RBG15 -2.29%) is down -0.0253 (-1.60%). Feb crude and Feb gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher. Closes: CLG5 +1.86 (+3.37%), RBG5 +0.0250 (+1.61%). Bullish factors included (1) the upward revision in U.S. Q3 GDP to +5.0%, the fastest pace of expansion in 11 years, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to an all-time high, which bolstered confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Prices came off of their best levels after the dollar index rose to an 8-1/2 year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/24/2014

US	0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.3% with purchase sub-index -6.9% and refi sub-index unch.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +1,000 to 290,000, previous -6,000 to 289,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.375 million, previous -147,000 to 2.373 million.
	1030 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1130 ET	Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Nov PPI services expected +3.5% y/y, Oct +3.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/24/2014

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Actavis plc	ACT US		PDUFA, nebivolol/valsartan fixed-dose combo, hypertension

5 Large Caps with Momentum

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 500 Large Cap Index stocks to see if any still had some momentum.  I found some that do but although the numbers look good a couple of the charts look a little weird.

Today's list includes Sun Communities (SUI), Perry Ellis International (PERY), Nordion (NDZ), Gentiva Health Services (GTIV), Cherokee (CHKE):

Sun Communities (SUI)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 6.43% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 72.93%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 52.27
• Recently traded at 53.32 with a 50 day moving average of 50.37

Perry Ellis International (PERY)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new high and up 11.80% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 75.72%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.75
• Recently traded at 19.6 with a 50 day moving average of 17.74

Nordion (NDZ)

Barchart technical indicators:

• Unusual chart
• 88% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 14 new highs and up 3.34% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 69.89%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.99
• Recently traded at 13.00 with a 50 day moving average of 12.74

Gentiva Health Services (GTIV)

Barchart technical indicators:

• Another unusual chart
• 96% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 20.08% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 72.74%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.85
• Recently traded at 18.64 with a 50 day moving average of 15.77

Cherokee (CHKE)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 15.34% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 84.33%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.04
• Recently traded at 17.9 with a 50 day moving average of 15.39

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, February 25th, 2014View Older Reports

Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter.

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.23%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are down -0.39% on emerging-market concerns after Ukraine's currency slumped after the country delayed a vote on selecting a government until Thursday. Ukraine is struggling to keep its currency, the hryvnia, from collapsing, which could force banks and companies into default that owe money in foreign currencies. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1,44%, Hong Kong -0.32%, China -2.56%, Taiwan +0.18%, Australia -0.12%, Singapore -0.07%, South Korea +0.88%, India +0.20%. The Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 2-week low amid speculation a weaker property market and a falling currency will undercut corporate earnings. China's yuan dropped to a 6-month low of 6.1310 against the dollar, which boosts the cost of overseas borrowing by Chinese companies at the same time as lenders face tighter lending restrictions in China after China's Industrial Bank on Monday said it will delay loans for property projects until the end of March. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 -0.89%) is down -0.89%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.15%) is down -0.18%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.26%) is down -0.22%. March copper (HGH14 -0.90%) is down -0.72%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) is down -0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.06%) are up +3.5 ticks.
UK Feb CBI reported sales jumped to 37 from 14 in Dec, a much bigger increase than expectations of 15 and the highest in 1-1/2 years.
German Q4 GDP was left unrevised at +0.4% q/q and +1.4% y/y. Q4 private consumption was unrevised at -0.1% q/q, but Q4 government spending was revised lower to unch from +0.2%. Q4 exports were revised upward to +2.6% q/q from +1.7% q/q and Q4 imports were revised lower to +0.6% from +1.3% q/q.
The Japan Jan corporate service price index rose +0.8% y/y, a smaller increase than expectations of +1.2% y/y, while Dec was revised lower to +1.1% y/y from the originally reported +1.3% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

U.S. home prices are expected to continue climbing at a relatively strong pace. Today’s Dec FHFA house price index is expected to show an increase of +0.3% m/m after Nov’s report of +0.1%. Meanwhile, today’s Dec S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index is expected to show a strong increase of +0.6% m/m and +13.4% y/y after Nov’s report of +0.9% m/m and +13.7% y/y. Today’s Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a -0.7 point decline to 80.0, reversing part of the +3.2 point increase to 80.7 seen in January. Today’s Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -7 point decline to 5, adding to the -1 point decline to 12 seen in January. The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 2-year T-notes, kicking off this week’s T-note package. The Treasury will then sell $35 billion in 5-year T-notes and $13 billion of 2-year floating rate notes on Wednesday, and $29 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.
There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: American Tower (consensus $0.96), FirstEnergy (0.70), Home Depot (0.71), Macy's (2.17), Edison International (0.68), First Solar (1.02), QEP Resources (0.40), Range Resources (0.39), Leucadia National Corp. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, JP Morgan Emerging Markets Corporate Conference on Mon-Tue, HIMSS Conference on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley Houston Energy Summit on Tue, J. P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, 10th Regulatory and Compliance Congress on Tue-Wed, Robert W. Baird Business Solutions Conference Tue-Wed, Crude By Rail 2014 on Tue-Wed, Super Return International 2014 on Tue-Wed, Gabelli & Co Inc Industrial Flow & Infrastructure Conference on Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Health Care Conference on Wed, Alembic Global Advisors Fourth Annual Global Chemical Conference on Wed, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Boston Bank Conference on Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Consumer Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu, and Stifel Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

HSBC (HSBC -2.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan.
Domino's Pizza (DPZ +1.97%) reported Q4 EPS of 78 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
Verizon (VZ -2.20%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Morgan Stanley reiterates its 'Overweight' rating on Tesla (TSLA +3.84%) and raised its price target on the stock to $320 from $153.
American Tower (AMT -1.27%) reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents, weaker than consensus of 96 cents.
Home Depot (HD +0.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 73 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.
Perry Ellis (PERY +2.69%) slumped 20% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to 34 cents-37 cents, well below consensus of 97 cents, and said earnings were undercut by inclement weather across major parts of the country and a challenging consumer spending environment.
PayPal, a unit of eBay (EBAY +3.13%) , announced on a company blog that it will be the first global payments company to support the mobile fingerprint authentication technology on Samsung's (SSNLF unch) latest Samsung Galaxy S5.
Chemtura (CHMT +0.36%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 11 cents.
EOG Resources (EOG +1.35%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.00, better than consensus of $1.94.
Minerals Technologies (MTX -0.34%) increased its offer to acquire AMCOL ({=ACO to $42.50 per share.
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group (BAGL -1.27%) announced that effective immediately, the Board of Directors has appointed Michael Arthur as Interim Chief Executive Officer and President following the resignation of Jeff O’Neill.
Tutor Perini (TPC +2.36%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, stronger than consensus of 61 cents.
Stifel Financial (SF +1.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, higher than consensus of 68 cents.
Frontier Communications (FTR -0.86%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 6 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.23%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.18%). The S&P 500 on Monday rallied to a fresh all-time high and closed higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) positive carry-over from a rally in European equities after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-1/2 year high of 111.3, higher than expectations of a -0.1 point decline to 110.5, and (2) a rally in health insurers after the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said health insurers face a payment cut of only about 3.55% next year, less than industry expectations of 6% to 7%. Closes: S&P 500 +0.62%, Dow Jones +0.64%, Nasdaq 100 +0.63%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.06%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower on negative carry-over from a drop in German bunds after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose to a 2-1/2 year high. T-notes also moved lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 climbed to a record high. Closes: TYH4 -4.50, FVH4 -2.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.12%) this morning is down -0.066 (-0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0014 (+0.10%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17 (-0.17%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced safe haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a record high. EUR/USD moved higher after the German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-1/2 year high of 111.3, but fell back after ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB is ready to add to stimulus if the outlook for prices deteriorates and after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that “weakness in price development is extending to the medium term.” Closes: Dollar index -0.038 (-0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00014 (-0.01%), USD/JPY unch.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 -0.89%) this morning is down -91 cents (-0.89%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.15%) is down -0.0053 (-0.18%). Apr crude and gasoline prices Monday settled higher. Bullish factors for crude included (1) weakness in the dollar, (2) the unexpected increase in German Feb IFO business confidence to a 2-1/2 year high, which is positive for the global economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) expectations for crude supplies to fall for a fourth week at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, when weekly EIA inventory data is released on Wed. Closes: CLJ4 +0.62 (+0.61%), RBJ4 +0.0055 (+0.18%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/25/2014

US	0900 ET	Dec FHFA house price index expected +0.3% m/m, Nov +0.1% m/m. Q4 house price purchase index expected +1.00% q/q, Q3 +1.96% q/q.
	0900 ET	Dec S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.6% m/m and +13.40% y/y, Nov +0.88% m/m and +13.71% y/y. Q4 home price index, Q3 +11.18% y/y.
	1000 ET	U.S. Feb consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -0.7 to 80.0, Jan +3.2 to 80.7.
	1000 ET	Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -7 to 5, Jan -1 to 12.
	1010 ET	Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks at the annual NABE conference on a panel titled A View from the Fed.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Q4 GDP, previous +0.4% q/q and +1.4% y/y.
UK	0600 ET	UK Feb CBI reported sales expected +1 to 15, Jan 14.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/25/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
American Tower Corp	AMT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.962
FirstEnergy Corp	FE US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.696
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US	6:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.713
Quanta Services Inc	PWR US	8:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Macy's Inc	M US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.172
Edison International	EIX US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.678
First Solar Inc	FSLR US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.021
QEP Resources Inc	QEP US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.404
Range Resources Corp	RRC US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.388
Leucadia National Corp	LUK US		Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013