Tuesday, November 19, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 11/19

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.22%) this morning are down -0.13% and European stocks are down -0.78%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -0.01%, China -0.69%, Taiwan +0.84%, Australia -0.59%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea +1.05%, India +0.19%. World stock markets fell on growth concerns after the OECD cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next, while European stocks shook off the increase in German Nov investor sentiment to a 4-year high. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 -0.44%) is down -0.19%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.08%) is down -0.02%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.32%) is up +0.27% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.05%) is up +0.02%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) is down -0.04% at a 1-1/2 week low on speculation that Fed speakers scheduled to speak today, including Fed Chairman Bernanke, will signal economic growth isn't yet strong enough to warrant a cut in stimulus. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.01%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its global forecast for this year to 2.7% from 3.1% predicted in May and lowered its global 2014 GDP forecast to 3.6% from 4.0% predicted in May.
German Nov ZEW survey of expectations of economic growth rose for a fourth month as it climbed +1.8 from Oct to 54.6, better than expectations of +1.2 to 54.0 and the highest level in 4-years. Nov ZEW survey current situation unexpectedly fell -1.0 point to 28.7, weaker than expectations of a +1.3 point increase to 31.0.
Eurozone Sep construction output fell -1.3% m/m, the biggest monthly decline in 6-months, and on an annual basis construction output fell -0.2% y/y.
China Oct foreign direct investment slowed to a +1.2% y/y increase from a +4.9% y/y gain in Sep, weaker than expectations of a +6.1% y/y increase.
Japan Oct nationwide department store sales declined -0.6% y/y as they slowed from a +2.8% y/y increase in Sep.
The Japan Sep leading index CI was revised lower to 109.2 from the originally reported 109.5, while the Sep coincident index was revised higher to 108.4 from the originally reported 108.2.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s U.S. Q3 employment cost index (ECI) is expected to show an increase of +0.5% q/q and +2.0% y/y, little changed from the Q2 report of +0.5% q/q and +1.9% y/y. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon will speak to the National Economist Club. There are 7 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Valspar (consensus $0.92), Home Depot (0.90), Campbell Soup (0.86), Best Buy (0.12), Medtronic (0.90), Dick's Sporting Goods (0.39), and TJX (0.74).
Conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: Wall Street Journal CEO Council Annual Meeting on Mon-Tue, KBW Securities Brokerage & Market Structure Conference on Tue, Gabelli & Co Inc Aircraft Supplier Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi Global Financial Conference on Tue-Wed, Lazard Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Oil & Gas Corporate Access Day on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Los Angeles Auto Show-Press Days on Tue-Thu, UBS Global Outlook Conference on Wed, Bloomberg Business Summit on Wed, Canaccord Genuity TMT Day on Wed, Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Steel Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecoms Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Thu, and 11th Annual MIT Sloan CFO Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.97%) reported Q3 EPS of 40 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.
Best Buy (BBY -0.30%) jumped 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 18 cents, well ahead of consensus of 12 cents.
Valspar (VAL -1.09%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 97 cents, stronger than consensus of 92 cents.
Medtronic (MDT -0.41%) reported Q2 EPS of 91 cents, higher than consensus of 90 cents.
Campbell Soup (CPB -1.44%) reported Q1 EPS of 66 cents, well below consensus of 86 cents.
Home Depot (HD -0.45%) reported Q3 EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 90 cents.
Greenlight Capital reported that it lowered its stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL -3.28%) to 38.3% from 53.1%.
ING Group (ING -0.46%) said it will sell its 11.3% direct stake in Brazilian insurer SulAmérica to Swiss Re.
Salesforce.com (CRM -3.14%) fell 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 9 cents, right on consensus, but then gave guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS of 33 cents-34 cents, on the low end of consensus of 34 cents.
Brocade (BRCD +0.12%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, well ahead of consensus of 18 cents.
Urban Outfitters (URBN -1.32%) reported Q3 EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 45 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.22%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Monday posted a fresh all-time high but fell back late in the session and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the Nov NAHB housing market index that was unchanged at 54, which was weaker than market expectations of 55, and (2) long liquidation and technical selling after the S&P 500 failed to remain above the 1800 level. Closes: S&P 500 +0.42%, Dow Jones +0.54%, Nasdaq 100 +0.22%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.01%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday pushed up to a 1-week high and closed higher on speculation the Fed will maintain its pace of bond buying into next year. Another supportive factor for T-note prices was the weaker-than-expected Nov NAHB housing market index. Closes: TYZ3 +9.00, FVZ3 +4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.04%) at a 1-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0015 (-0.11%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Monday fell to a 1-week low on speculation the Fed will maintain QE3 into next year, but the dollar recovered and settled little changed after the S&P 500 fell back from a record high. Gains in EUR/USD were limited on renewed European sovereign debt concerns after data from the Bank of Spain showed Spain Sep non-performing loans, or defaults as a proportion of total lending at Spanish banks, rose to a record +12.7%. Closes: Dollar index -0.024 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.00096 (+0.07%), USD/JPY -0.198 (-0.20%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 -0.44%) this morning is down -18 cents (-0.19%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.08%) is down -0.0005 (-0.02%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. Crude oil closed lower after New York Fed President Dudley said he was upbeat on the U.S. economy, which fueled speculation the Fed will taper stimulus. Dec gasoline closed lower on speculation that refineries along the East and Gulf coasts that were shut for maintenance will soon restart and boost gasoline production. Closes: CLZ3 -0.81 (-0.86%), RBZ3 -0.0009 (-0.03%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/19/2013
US0830 ETQ3 employment cost index expected +0.5% q/q and +2.0% y/y, Q2 +0.5% q/q and +1.9% y/y.
1300 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to the Illinois Bankers Association Midwest Bank Leaders Conference.
1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
1900 ETFed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the National Economist Club.
JPN0000 ETRevised Japan Sep leading index CI, previous 109.5. Revised Sep coincident index, previous 108.2.
1850 ETJapan Oct trade balance expected -854.2 billion yen, Sep -934.3 billion yen. Oct exports expected +16.2% y/y, Sep +11.5% y/y. Oct imports expected +19.0% y/y, Sep +16.5% y/y.
2330 ETJapan Sep all-industry activity index expected +0.4% m/m, Aug +0.3% m/m.
EUR0200 ETEurozone Oct new car registrations, Sep +5.4%.
0500 ETEurozone Sep construction output, Aug +0.5% m/m and -4.7% y/y.
GER0500 ETGerman Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected +1.2 to 54.0, Oct 52.8. Nov ZEW survey current situation expected +1.3 to 31.0, Oct 29.7.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/19/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Valspar Corp/TheVAL USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.915
Home Depot Inc/TheHD US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.898
Campbell Soup CoCPB US6:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.863
Best Buy Co IncBBY US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.121
Medtronic IncMDT US7:15Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.901
Dick's Sporting Goods IncDKS US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.386
Best Buy Co IncBBY US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Medtronic IncMDT US8:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
CH Robinson Worldwide IncCHRW US8:00Analyst and Investor DayY 2013
IntercontinentalExchange Group IncICE US8:00Business Update Call
Campbell Soup CoCPB US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US8:30Investor DayY 2013
Home Depot Inc/TheHD US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
National Fuel Gas CoNFG US9:00Analyst DayY 2013
UGI CorpUGI US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
TJX Cos IncTJX US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.737
Energen CorpEGN USInvestment Community Meeting - Day 2
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - LondonY 2013
BioMarin Pharmaceutical IncBMRN USFDA Adcomm, Vimizim (GALNS), Morquio A Syndrome (MPS IVA)
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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