Friday, March 13th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.12% ahead of U.S. producer prices for Feb and a preliminary reading of U.S. consumer confidence for March. European stocks ae down -0.12 as energy producers fall after the price of crude oil slipped to a 6-week low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.39%, Hong Kong +0.11%, China +0.69%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia -0.61%, Singapore -0.32%, South Korea +0.76%, India -1.48%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied up to a 14-3/4 year high and China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 6-week high on receding Fed rate hike prospects after U.S. Feb retail sales unexpectedly declined for a third month. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) is down -0.55% at a 6-week low on a supply glut in the U.S. after Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude stockpiles at 448.9 million bbl, the most since EIA data started in 1982. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.57% at a 3-week low. The IEA said today that the record oil surplus in the U.S. may soon strain the nation's storage capacity and further pressure oil prices. The IEA said that the oil-storage hub in Cushing, OK, the largest in the U.S., is now 70% full. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.31%) is up +0.27%. May copper (HGK15 -0.24%) is down -0.23% as it retreated from a 1-week high on signs of ample global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +17,276 MT to 241,616 MT, a 1-3/4 year high, and LME copper inventories rose +2,825 MT to 333,575 MT, a 13-1/2 month high. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.47%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%. GBP/USD is down -0.38% at a 4-1/2 year low after UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in 14 months. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.21%) are down -7.5 ticks.Japan Jan industrial production was revised lower to +3.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y from the originally reported +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y. Jan capacity utilization rose +3.6% m/m and matched September's increase as the largest in a year.
UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell -2.6% m/m and -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y with the -2.6% m/m decline the biggest monthly drop in 14 months and the -3.1% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 22 months.
The German Feb wholesale price index rose +0.5% m/m and fell -2.1% y/y with the +0.5% m/m gain the biggest monthly increase in 17 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s preliminary-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a small +0.1 point increase to 95.5, stabilizing after Feb’s fairly sharp -2.7 point decline to 95.4. Today’s Feb final-demand PPI index is expected to match January’s report of unchanged y/y and the core PPI is expected to match Jan’s report of +1.6% y/y. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Ocwen Financial Corp (consensus $0.35). There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Intel (INTC -4.73%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.Genesco (GCO -7.79%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
Children's Place (PLCE +8.81%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to drop 4.9% in 2015, compared to a previous forecast of 3.3%, reports DigiTimes, according to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
Piper Jaffray said February video game software sales rose 7% y/y and maintains its 'Overweight' ratings on Activision Blizzard (ATVI -0.09%) , Electronic Arts (EA -0.05%) , GameStop (GME +0.51%) and Take-Two (TTWO +0.20%) .
General Motors (GM +1.72%) will recall approximately 64,000 2011-13 Chevrolet Volts for a software update to limit how long the car can be left idling.
Kronos Worldwide (KRO +1.76%) reported Q4 EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.
Mobileye (MBLY +0.75%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Laurene Powell Jobs Trust reported a 7.7% passive stake in Disney (DIS +4.16%) .
Ulta Salon (ULTA +2.01%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.35, higher than consensus of $1.27.
Aeropostale (ARO -6.80%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 1 cent, better than consensus of a -3 cent loss, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to a loss of -61 cents to -53 cwnts, a larger loss than consensus of -36 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.26%, Dow Jones +1.47%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) signs that China’s monetary easing is spurring demand for loans after data showed China Feb aggregate financing, China’s broadest measure of new credit, rose 1.35 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan, (2) a rally in bank stocks after 29 U.S. banks passed Fed stress tests, and (3) reduced interest rate hike concerns after Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month as they declined -0.6% and -0.1% ex autos, weaker than expectations of +0.5% and +0.3% ex autos.Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday rose to a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +7.00, FVM5 +5.75. The main bullish factor was the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes. T-notes fell back from their best levels on weak demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 30-year T-bond auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.18, below the 12-auction average of 2.45 and the lowest in 10 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.111 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0050 (-0.47%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower: Dollar index -0.360 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.00876 (+0.83%), USD/JPY -0.159 (-0.13%). Bearish factors included the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which fueled long liquidation in the dollar, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on reduced Greek default concerns after the ECB increased the Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greek banks by 600 million euros.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) this morning is down -26 cents (-0.55%) at a 6-week low and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.0103 (-0.57%) at a 3-week low. Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower with Apr crude at a 5-week low and Apr gasoline at a 3-week low: CLJ5 -1.12 (-2.33), RBJ5 -0.0253 (-1.39%). Bearish factors included (1) abundant supplies as Wednesday’s EIA data showed EIA crude inventories rose +4.51 million bbl to 448.9 million bbl, the highest since EIA data began in 1982, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which signals economic weakness.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/13/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Feb PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and unch y/y, Jan -0.8% m/m and unch y/y. Feb PPI final demand ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y. |
| 1000 ET | Preliminary-Mar U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) expected +0.1 to 95.5, Feb -2.7 to 95.4. | |
| JPN | 0030 ET | Revised Japan Jan industrial production, previous +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y. |
| 0030 ET | Japan Jan capacity utilization, Dec +2.0% m/m. | |
| GER | 0300 ET | German Feb wholesale price index, Jan -2.6% m/m and -0.4% y/y. |
| UK | 0530 ET | UK Jan construction output expected +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.4% m/m and +5.5% y/y. |
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