MORNING CALL 12/3

MORNING CALL

Thursday, December 3rd, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.49%) are up +0.56% and European stocks are up +1.22% before an expected expansion of ECB stimulus and before Fed Chair Yellen gives another speech later today. Gains in European automakers led the overall market higher as a -0.65% slide in EUR/USD (^EURUSD) to a 7-1/2 month low gives exporters a boost. On the negative side, mining stocks fell with Anglo American Plc at a 16-year low and BHP Billiton Ltd. near a 7-year low, as metals prices retreated with the price of gold (GCG16 -0.36%) down -0.40% to a new 5-3/4 year low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.01%, Hong Kong -0.28%, China +1.35%, Taiwan -0.02%, Australia -0.58%, Singapore +0.01%, South Korea -0.78%, India-0.89%. China's Shanghai Composite moved higher for a fourth day on speculation that China will soon expand its stimulus measures.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) is up +0.40%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.65% at a 7-1/2 month low on anticipation the ECB will expand QE later today. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.07%) are down -5.5 ticks.

Eurozone Oct retail sales fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Nov Challenger job cuts (Oct -1.3% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +8,000 to 268,000, previous -12,000 to 260,000) and continuing claims (expected -17,000 to 2.190 million, previous +34,000 to 2.207 million), (3) final-Nov Markit services PMI (expected unch at 56.5, prelim-Nov +1.7 to 56.5) (4) Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the congressional Joint Economic Committee to discuss the economic outlook, (5) Oct factory orders (expected +1.4% and +0.2% ex transportation, Sep -1.0% and -0.6% ex transportation), (6) Nov non-manufacturing ISM (expected -1.1 to 58.0, Oct +2.2 to 59.1), and (7) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's keynote speech at a conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research.

There are 8 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Medtronic (consensus $1.00), Sears Holdings (-2.84), Dollar General (0.87), Michaels Cos (0.36), Toro (0.39), Cooper Cos (2.11), Ulta Salon (1.05), Kroger (0.39).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. Investor Program on Wed-Thu, ASEAN Business Summit on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK +1.23%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after the stock was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley.

Disney (DIS -1.20%) boosted its semi-annual dividend to 71 cents a share from 66 cents.

Avago (AVGO -0.51%) climbed over 8% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.51, higher than consensus of $2.38.

Boyd Gaming (BYD +1.88%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Sell.'

Dollar General (DG -0.56%) reported Q3 EPS of 88 cents, better than consensus of 87 cents.

Dyax (DYAX -0.83%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it said its deal to acquire Shire Pharmaceuticals International cleared an anti-trust review by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.

Tilly's (TLYS +0.99%) dropped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, above consensus of 14 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to 10 cents-12 cents, well below consensus of 21 cents.

PVH Corp. (PVH +1.26%) rallied over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.66, better than consensus of $2.47.

Aeropostale (ARO +5.36%) slid nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -31 cents, a smaller loss than expectations of-34 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to a loss of -4 cents to -17 cents, below consensus of a 2 cent profit.

Verint Systems (VRNT -0.96%) tumbled 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, below consensus of 79 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $3.30 from a September estimate of $3.45, below consensus of $3.46.

Synopsys (SNPS -0.91%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, above consensus of 66 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q1 adjusted EPS to 60 cents-63 cents, below consensus of 72 cents.

American Eagle (AEO +0.25%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents, and said it sees Q4 EPS of 40 cents-42 cents, in line with consensus of 41 cents.

Photronics (PLAB +0.81%) rallied over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, higher than consensus of 19 cents.

Box (BOX +3.28%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted loss of -31 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $78.7 million was above consensus of $76.8 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.49%) this morning are up +11.75 points (+0.56%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.10%, Dow Jones -0.89%, Nasdaq-0.63%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday posted a 4-week high but fell back and posted a 1-week low as energy stocks fell after the price of crude oil dropped to a 2-week low, and after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart that solidified expectations for a Fed interest rate increase later this month.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.07%) this morning are down -5.5 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 -7.50, FVH6 -6.75. Mar T-notes closed lower after the Nov ADP employment change rose +217,000, stronger than expectations of +190,000 and the biggest increase in 5 months and after comments from Fed Chair Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart reinforced expectations for the Fed to begin raising interest rates later this month.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.42%) this morning is up +0.397 (+0.40%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0069 (-0.65%) at a fresh 7-1/2 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.19%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.198 (+0.20%), EUR/USD -0.0018 (-0.17%), USD/JPY +0.37 (+0.30%). The dollar index Wednesday surged to a 12-1/2 year high after Fed Chair Yellen said the U.S. economy is ready for an interest rate increase later this month, and on weakness in EUR/USD which sank to a 7-1/2 month on expectations for the ECB to expand QE Thursday after Eurozone Nov CPI rose less than expected.

Jan crude oil (CLF16 +1.38%) this morning is up +69 cents (+1.73%) and Jan gasoline (RBF16 +0.20%) is up +0.0084 (+0.65%). Wednesday’s closes: CLF6 -1.75 (-4.18%), RBF6 -0.0619 (-4.54%). Jan crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed sharply lower with Jan crude at a 2-week low and Jan gasoline at a 1-week low after the dollar index rallied to a 12-1/2 year high and after EIA crude inventories unexpected rose +1.18 million bbl to a 7-month high, more than expectations for a -800,000 bbl draw. Other bearish factors were the +0.4% increase in U.S. crude production to a 3-month high of 9.202 million bpd and the +428,000 bbl increase in crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to a 6-month high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/03/2015

US	0730 ET	Nov Challenger job cuts, Oct -1.3% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +8,000 to 268,000, previous -12,000 to 260,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-17,000 to 2.190 million, previous +34,000 to 2.207 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0945 ET	Final-Nov Markit services PMI expected unch at 56.5, prelim-Nov +1.7 to 56.5. Final-Nov Markit composite PMI, prelim Nov +1.1 to 56.1.
	1000 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the congressional Joint Economic Committee to discuss the economic outlook.
	1000 ET	Oct factory orders expected +1.4% and +0.2% ex transportation, Sep -1.0% and -0.6% ex transportation. Revised Oct durable goods orders, prelim-Oct +3.0% m/m and +0.5% ex-transportation.
	1000 ET	Nov non-manufacturing ISM expected -1.1 to 58.0, Oct +2.2 to 59.1.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Dec 8-10.
	1310 ET	Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer delivers keynote speech at a conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Treasurys Office of Financial Research.
GER	0355 ET	Revised German Nov Markit services PMI, preliminary +1.1 to 55.6.
EUR	0400 ET	Revised Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI, preliminary +0.5 to 54.4.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Oct retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision, expected 10 bp cut in the ECB deposit facility rate to -0.3% from -0.2%.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov Markit/CIPS services PMI expected +0.1 to 55.0, Oct 54.9.
JPN	2030 ET	Japan Oct labor cash earnings expected +0.5%y/y, Sep +0.4% y/y. Oct real cash earnings, Sep +0.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/03/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	-2.84
Dollar General Corp	DG US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.872
Michaels Cos Inc/The	MIK US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.362
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:10	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	6:45	Q2 2016 Earnings Release	Q2 2016	1
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	November 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
Medtronic PLC	MDT US	8:00	Q2 2016 Earnings Call	Q2 2016
Anthem Inc	ANTM US	8:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015
General Electric Co	GE US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2015
Toro Co/The	TTC US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.387
Aflac Inc	AFL US	9:00	Q4 2016 Guidance Call	Q4 2016
Cigna Corp	CI US	9:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015
PVH Corp	PVH US	9:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US	9:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2015
CBRE Group Inc	CBG US	9:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Marathon Petroleum Corp	MPC US	9:00	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2015
Michaels Cos Inc/The	MIK US	9:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Skechers U.S.A. Inc	SKX US	9:30	Investor and Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Kroger Co/The	KR US	10:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	10:00	Q4 2016 Guidance Call	Q4 2016
Dollar General Corp	DG US	10:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Toro Co/The	TTC US	11:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Alaska Air Group Inc	ALK US	12:00	Investor Day	Y 2015
TECO Energy Inc	TE US	14:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2015
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	17:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.107
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	1.051
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		November 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Kroger Co/The	KR US		Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.392
L Brands Inc	LB US		November 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/8

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, June 8th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.07%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.78% at a 3-1/2 month low. The ongoing Greek debt crisis continues to weigh on stocks as the Greek government needs to seal an accord with creditors or get another extension before the end of the month. The 10-year Greek bond yield rose +17 bp to a 4-session high of 11.39%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.02%, Hong Kong +0.21%, China +2.17%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia close for holiday, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.29%, India -0.92%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 7-1/3 year high on speculation that MSCI Inc. will include A shares of Chinese stocks in its emerging-market indexes. China, through its companies listed in Hong Kong, accounts for more than 25% of the emerging-market benchmark, the largest weighting in the gauge. MSCI has kept China's A shares out of its indexes due to limitations on their tradability and will decide on Tuesday whether to include China's locally stocks in its equity benchmarks.
Commodity prices are mixed. Jul crude oil (CLN15 -0.68%) is down -0.88%. Jul gasoline (RBN15 -0.49%) is down -0.55%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.43%) is up +0.39%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.11%) is down -0.28%. Agricultural prices are higher.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% on upbeat comments from ECH Governing Council member Nowotny. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26% on stronger-than-expected Q1 Japan GDP.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.05%) are up +4 ticks.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the Eurozone's economic downturn "is over." He said the Eurozone has overcome the risk of deflation as the ECB's asset purchases have had the desired effect. He added that economic development in Europe is "positive," although challenges remain.
The China May trade balance widened to a surplus of +$59.49 billion from +$34.13 billion in Apr, more than expectations of +$44.80 billion. May exports fell -2.5% y/y, less than expectations of -4.4% y/y. May imports fell -17.6% y/y, more than expectations of -10.0% y/y.
Japan Q1 GDP was revised upward to 3.9% q/q annualized from the originally reported 2.4% q/q annualized, stronger than expectations of 2.8% q/q annualized and the fastest pace of growth in a year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) the second day of the 2-day G-7 Summit in Germany.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Sears (consensus -$2.59), H&R Block (2.68).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference (WWDC15) on Mon-Fri, Nomura Retail Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Energy Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, NAREIT REITWeek Investor Forum on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank db Access Global Consumer Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs European Payments Conference on Wed, Macquarie Group Ltd. Global Metals, Mining & Materials Conference on Wed, Gabelli & Co., Inc. Movie & Entertainment Conference on Thu, Goldman Sachs 2020 Vision Chemicals Conference on Thu, Susquehanna Energy and Industrials Conference on Thu, Barclays High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Delta Air Lines (DAL -0.05%) and United Continental (UAL -0.88%) were both downgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE -0.64%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Evercore.
Wal-Mart (WMT -1.47%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Affiliated Managers (AMG -0.39%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $258.
Franklin Resources (BEN +0.28%) was initiated with a 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $49.
BlackRock (BLK -0.70%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $421.
Home Depot (HD -0.98%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Atlantic Equities witha price target of $128.
Invesco (IVZ +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Energy Transfer Equity (ETE +2.43%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $92.
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP +0.66%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $70.
Huntington Ingalls (HII +0.24%) was awarded a $3.35 billion government contract for detail, design and construction of CVN 79, the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy.
AB Value Partners reported a 6.61% stake in Image Sensing Systems (ISNS -0.96%) .
Soros Fund reported a 5.19% passive stake in MaxLinear (MXL +0.66%) .
Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY -0.91%) reported Q2 EPS of 84 cents, better than consensus of 79 cents, although Q2 revenue of $424.9 million was weaker than consensus of $488.8 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.07%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.10%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.14%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq -0.22%. The S&P 500 on Friday slid to a 3-1/2 week low and closed lower on concern about an accelerated Fed rate hike after the +280,000 increase in U.S. May non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +226,000 and the largest increase in 5 months. In addition, there continued to be concern about the Greek crisis after the Greek PM appeared to reject the take-it-or-leave-it offer by the Eurozone/IMF.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.05%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -26.50, FVU5 -15.75. Sep T-notes on Friday slumped to an 8-month low and closed lower on concerns that the Fed might be closer to a rate hike after the stronger-than-expected U.S. May payroll report of +280,000. In addition, May average hourly earnings rose by +2.3% y/y, more than expectations of +2.2% y/y and the largest annual increase in 1-3/4 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.022 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33 (-0.26%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.845 (+0.89%), EUR/USD -0.01275 (-1.13%), USD/JPY +1.220 (+0.98%). The dollar index on Friday settled higher on the possibility of an accelerated Fed rate hike after the strong U.S. May payroll report of +280,000. In addition, the euro was undercut by the Greek crisis after Greece deferred a debt payment due to the IMF Friday until the end of the month. USD/JPY surged to a 13-year high on expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy while the BOJ expands stimulus.
July WTI crude oil (CLN15 -0.68%) this morning is down -52 cents (-0.88%). July gasoline (RBN15 -0.49%) is down -0.0112 (-0.55%). Friday's closes: CLN5 +0.96 (+1.66%), RBN5 +0.0465 (+2.35%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Friday rebounded from 1-week lows and closed higher on the larger-than-expected +280,000 increase in U.S. May non-farm payrolls, which signaled stronger economic growth and energy demand. In addition, Baker Hughes reported that U.S. operating oil rigs fell to a 4-3/4 year low of 642, which will undercut U.S. oil production. Other bearish factors included the stronger dollar and OPEC's decision to maintain its crude production target at 30 million bpd, thus keeping alive its price war on high-cost crude oil producers.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/08/2015

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan May bankruptcies, Apr -18.16% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan May eco-watchers survey current expected +0.4 to 54.0, Apr 53.6. May eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.2 to 54.0, Apr 54.2.
GER	0200 ET	German Apr industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Mar -0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Apr trade balance expected +19.4 billion euros, Mar +23.0 billion euros. Apr exports expected -0.4% m/m, Mar +1.3% m/m. Apr imports expected +0.5% m/m, Mar +2.4% m/m.
	0200 ET	German Apr current account balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Mar +27.9 billion euros.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jun Sentix investor confidence expected -0.9 to 18.7, May 19.6.
UK	1901 ET	UK May BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.2% y/y, Apr -2.4% y/y.
CHI	2130 ET	China May CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Apr +1.5% y/y. China May PPI expected -4.5% y/y, Apr -4.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/08/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
American Airlines Group Inc	AAL US	Bef-mkt	May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results	2015
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	-2.59
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US	17:00	May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance	2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.682
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US		Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
GoPro Inc	GPRO US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/4

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, December 4th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.06% and European stocks are up +0.44% at a 2-1/2 month high ahead of the conclusion of the ECB meeting and comments from ECB President Draghi that may shed clues on the possibility the ECB expands asset purchases to include government bonds. As expected, the BOE at the conclusion of its 2-day policy meeting maintained its 0.50% benchmark interest rate and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.94%, Hong Kong +1.72%, China +4.61%, Taiwan +0.54%, Australia +0.88%, Singapore +0.04%, South Korea +0.96%, India +0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rose as the rally in USD/JPY to a 7-1/3 year high boosts the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index surged over 4% to a 3-1/2 year high spurred on by an influx of money from Chinese investors who have opened stock accounts at the fastest pace in 3 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.50%) is unchanged. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.30%) is up +0.05%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.39%) is down -0.53%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.84%) is up +0.89%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.03% at a new 5-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01% at a new 2-1/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a new 7-1/3 year high after the Nikkei and Yomiuri newspapers reported that Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party will boost its majority at the Dec 14 election, which will give Abe a mandate to continue his reflationary, yen-negative, fiscal policies. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.02%) are up +1 tick.
The German Nov Markit construction PMI rose +2.0 to 53.5, the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months.
UK Nov Halifax house prices rose +0.4% m/m and +8.2% 3-mon/year-over-year, more than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s initial claims series is expected to show a -18,000 decline, reversing most of last week’s +21,000 increase to 313,000. The market is expecting today’s initial unemployment claims report to show a small +2,000 increase to 2.318 million following last week’s decline of -17,000 to the 14-year low of 2.316 million. There are 6 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kroger (consensus $0.61), Sears (-3.31), Dollar General (0.80), Toro (0.15), Cooper Companies (2.03), Ulta Salon (0.84), SandRidge Energy (0.04). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

CSX (CSX +2.19%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Wal-Mart (WMT -1.69%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Gentex (GNTX +2.26%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Sears Holdings (SHLD +0.91%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -$5.15, a much bigger loss than one estimate of -$3.31.
Royal Caribbean (RCL +1.39%) will replace Bemis (BMS +0.27%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
Costco (COST -0.26%) reported net sales of $9.43 billion for the month of November up +7% y/y.
Dollar General (DG -0.86%) reported Q3 EPS of 79 cents, below consensus of 80 cents.
Pfizer (PFE +0.57%) reported positive results from PROFILE 1014 study of anaplastic lymphoma kinase inhibitor XALKORI in previously untreated patients with ALK-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer.
Synopsys (SNPS -0.30%) reported Q4 EPS of 64 cents, higher than consensus of 61 cents.
Avago (AVGO +3.18%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.99, well above consensus of $1.68.
Disney (DIS -0.39%) increased its annual dividend by 29 cents or 34% to $1.15 per share.
PVH Corp. (PVH +2.12%) slid nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $2.56, better than consensus of $2.48, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPs view to $7.25-$7.30 from $7.30-$7.40, below consensus of $7.37.
Guess (GES +1.28%) reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.00-$1.10 from $1.05-$1.20, at the lower end of consensus of $1.10.
Aeropostale (ARO +3.91%) fell over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 adjusted EPS loss of -45 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to a loss of -37 cents to -44 cents, a larger loss than consensus of -36 cents.
BHP Billiton (BHP +1.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Rio Tinto (RIO +2.25%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Buy' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.10%) this morning are up +1.25 points (+0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday rose to a fresh all-time high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.16%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European equities on speculation ECB President Draghi may announce additional stimulus measures when he speaks on Thursday, and (2) the +2.2 point increase in the U.S. Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 57.5. Gains were limited after the Nov ADP employment change increased by +208,000, weaker than expectations of +222,000.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.02%) this morning are up +1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower: TYH5 -2.00, FVH5 -2.75. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected +2.2 point increase in the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, which could push the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks rallied.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.029 (+0.03%) at a new 5-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%) at a new 2-1/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.11%) at a fresh 7-1/3 year high. The dollar index on Wednesday soared to a 5-1/2 year high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.309 (+0.35%), EUR/USD -0.00719 (-0.58%), USD/JPY +0.582 (+0.49%). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Nov ISM non-manufacturing index, which bolsters the case for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-1/4 year low after the Eurozone Nov Markit composite PMI was revised lower to its slowest pace of expansion in 16 months, and (3) the rally in USD/JPY to a 7-1/3 year high on expectations for the BOJ to expand stimulus while the Fed stands pat.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.50%) this morning is unchanged and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.30%) is up +0.0009 (+0.05%). Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed. Closes: CLF5 +0.50 (+0.75%), RBF5 -0.0046 (-0.25%). Supportive factors included (1) the unexpected -3.69 million bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories, versus expectations of +1.75 million bbl, and (2) the -694,000 bbl draw in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, the first decline in 4 weeks. Bearish factors included (1) the +2.14 million bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles, more than expectations of +1.5 million bbl, and (2) the rally in the dollar index to a 5-1/2 year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2014

US	0730 ET	Nov Challenger job cuts, Oct +11.9% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -18,000 to 295,000, previous +21,000 to 313,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.318 million, previous -17,000 to 2.316 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0830 ET	Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives opening remarks at the Office of Financial Research 2014 Financial Stability Conference in Washington D.C.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces the amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Dec 9-11.
UK	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.
EUR	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Kroger Co/The	KR US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.614
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	-3.31
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Dollar General Corp	DG US	7:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.797
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	November 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Toro Co/The	TTC US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.153
Humana Inc	HUM US	9:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
PVH Corp	PVH US	9:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Kroger Co/The	KR US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Dollar General Corp	DG US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Toro Co/The	TTC US	11:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Starbucks Corp	SBUX US	11:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
Alaska Air Group Inc	ALK US	12:00	Investor Day	Y 2014
United Rentals Inc	URI US	12:30	Investor and Analyst Day	Y 2014
Airgas Inc	ARG US	13:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Landstar System Inc	LSTR US	14:00	Q4 2014 Guidance Call	Q4 2014
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	16:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	2.031
Cooper Cos Inc/The	COO US	17:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.838
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Chicago	Y 2014
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
L Brands Inc	LB US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Rite Aid Corp	RAD US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		November 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Myriad Genetics Inc	MYGN US		Annual General Meeting
SandRidge Energy Inc	SD US		Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.041

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/22

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, August 22nd, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.10%) this morning are down -0.11% and European stocks are down -0.90% as investors lighten up positions ahead of speeches later today from Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Stocks were also pressured on heightened tensions in Ukraine after Interfax reported that Ukraine sees a Russian aid convoy into the eastern part of its country as an invasion. The head of Ukraine's Security Council says that Russia is invading under cover of the Red Cross and that insurgents will use trucks now carrying humanitarian aid to transport weaponry. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.30%, Hong Kong +0.47%, China +0.47%, Taiwan +1.37%, Australia +0.12%, Singapore +0.04%, South Korea +0.66%, India +0.23%. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.30%) is down -0.37%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.02%) is down -0.08%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.46%) is up +0.50%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.72%) is up +0.76% at a 1-1/2 week high on signs of tighter global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories tumbled -10,297 MT to a 6-week low. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.09%) are up +4 ticks.
Weekly data shows the ECB's balance sheet fell to 2.02 trillion euros in the week ended Aug 15 from 2.03 trillion euros the previous week, the smallest in 3 years. ECB balance sheet lending to Eurozone credit institutions fell to 501 billion euros in the week ended Aug 15 from 504.9 billion euros the prior week, the lowest since Jul 2011.
The ECB's current account holdings fell to 211.2 billion euros on Thursday versus 221.4 billion euros on Wednesday, the lowest in 2 weeks. Excess liquidity (calculated as current account holdings plus deposit facility minus average reserve requirements) fell to 129.5 billion euros on Thursday versus 134.5 billion euros on Wednesday, the lowest since Aug 6.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

At today's Kansas City Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 10 AM ET will deliver a speech titled “Labor Markets." ECB President Mario Draghi will then deliver a speech at 4:30 ET. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: Foot Locker (consensus $0.54). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

PG&E (PCG +0.02%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Ann Inc. (ANN +0.54%) reported Q2 EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 68 cents.
Foot Locker (FL +0.27%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 64 cents, well ahead of consensus of 54 cents.
Nordson (NDSN +0.09%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.21, stronger than consensus of $1.13.
Scansource (SCSC +2.53%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 59 cents.
The Fresh Market (TFM -1.68%) rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 35 cents.
Marvell (MRVL +0.74%) reported Q2 EPS of 34 cents, well above consensus of 28 cents.
Ross Stores (ROST -0.89%) climbed over 5% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.14, higher than consensus of $1.08.
Aeropostale (ARO unch) reported a Q2 EPS ex-charges loss of -46 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -49 cents.
Salesforce.com (CRM +0.58%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, higher than consensus of 12 cents.
Brocade (BRCD +0.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, better than consensus of 19 cents.
GameStop (GME -2.03%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 22 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents.
Intuit (INTU +0.63%) reported an unexpected Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -1 cent, much weaker than consensus of a 7 cent profit, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.45-$2.50, well below consensus of $3.97.
The Gap (GPS +0.16%) reported Q2 EPS of 75 cents, stronger than consensus of 69 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $2.95-$3.00, above consensus of $2.95.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.10%) this morning are down -2.25 points (-0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted a record high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.29%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.16%. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) the -14,000 fall in weekly jobless claims, more than expectations of -8,000, (2) the unexpected +2.4% increase in Jul existing home sales to a 10-month high of 5.15 million, better than expectations of -0.5% to 5.02 million, and (3) the +4.1 increase in the Aug Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to a 3-1/3 year high of 28.0, stronger than expectations of a -4.2 decline to 19.7.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.09%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday fell to a 1-week low, but recovered and closed higher. Bearish factors for T-notes included (1) stronger than expected U.S. economic data on weekly jobless claims, Jul existing home sales and Aug Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rose to a record high. T-notes recovered and closed higher on short-covering ahead of an expected dovish speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Friday. Closes: TYU4 +3.0, FVU4 +1.0.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning isup +0.049 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.14%). The dollar index on Thursday posted an 11-1/2 month high, but gave up its advance and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rallied to a new record high, and (2) long liquidation and profit-taking ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech Friday at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Closes: Dollar index -0.072 (-0.09%), EUR/USD +0.00216 (+0.16%), USD/JPY +0.088 (+0.08%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -0.30%) this morning is down -35 cents (-0.37%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.02%) is down -0.0022 (-0.08%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Thursday shook off early losses and closed higher: CLV4 +0.51 (+0.55%), RBV4 +0.0291 (+1.13%). Oct crude rebounded from a 7-1/4 month low on bullish factors that included (1) weakness in the dollar, and (2) U.S. economic strength after Jul existing home sales unexpectedly rose to a 10-month high and the Aug Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a 3-1/3 year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/22/2014

US	1000 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers a speech titled Labor Markets at the Kansas City Feds annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
	1430 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the Kansas City Feds annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cold Storage.
	1500 ET	USDA Jul Cattle on Feed.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/22/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	-2.58
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:10	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	6:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.483
Patterson Cos Inc	PDCO US	7:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.496
Dollar Tree Inc	DLTR US	7:30	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.636
Toro Co/The	TTC US	8:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.828
Monsanto Co	MON US	8:30	Whistle Stop Tour - Day 2	Y 2014
Hormel Foods Corp	HRL US	9:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
L Brands Inc	LB US	9:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	C2 2015
L Brands Inc	LB US	9:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Dollar Tree Inc	DLTR US	9:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	C2 2015
Dollar Tree Inc	DLTR US	9:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Principal Financial Group Inc	PFG US	9:00	Roadshow - Mid-Atlantic	Y 2014
Patterson Cos Inc	PDCO US	10:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Alere Inc	ALR US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Toro Co/The	TTC US	11:00	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Medtronic Inc	MDT US	11:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Gap Inc/The	GPS US	16:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.688
Intuit Inc	INTU US	16:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.072
Ross Stores Inc	ROST US	16:01	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	1.082
GameStop Corp	GME US	16:01	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.183
MICROS Systems Inc	MCRS US	16:02	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.717
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	16:05	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.119
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	16:05	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.281
Ross Stores Inc	ROST US	16:15	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	16:18	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.191
Nordson Corp	NDSN US	16:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.132
Intuit Inc	INTU US	16:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	16:45	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Gap Inc/The	GPS US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
GameStop Corp	GME US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Brocade Communications Systems Inc	BRCD US	17:30	Q3 2014 Earnings Call	Q3 2014
Humana Inc	HUM US		Investor Meeting