Barchart Morning Call 1/29

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 37 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• March E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly lower as the market runs into some long liquidation pressure ahead of today's consumer confidence and Case-Shiller home price reports, a full slate of earnings reports, and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting. The FOMC at tomorrow's post-meeting announcement is unanimously expected to leave its QE3 program unchanged at $85 billion per month. European stocks this morning are down -0.32%. Asian stocks closed mixed today. Japan closed +0.39%, Hong Kong closed -0.07%, and China closed +0.91%. Commodity prices are mildly higher by +0.14%. March crude oil is up +0.03%, March gasoline is down -0.64%, Feb gold is up +0.56%, March copper is up +0.12%, grains are slightly higher, livestock is slightly lower, and softs are mostly higher. The dollar index is little changed while EUR/USD is down -0.15%. USD/JPY is down -0.40%. March 10-year T-notes are up 5 ticks.
• Italy today successfully sold 8.5 billion euros of 6-month bills at 0.731%, the lowest rate in nearly 3 years and down from 0.95% at the last sale of that security in December. The lower 6-month bill rate is another indicator of the containment for the time being of the European debt crisis.
• The German Feb GfK consumer confidence index edged higher to 5.8 from 5.6 in January and was slightly stronger than market expectations of 5.7.
• China's Dec leading index rose to 100.50 from a revised 100.37 in November (preliminary 100.21).
• India cut its key repurchase rate by 25 bp to 7.75% from 8.00%, which was in line with market expectations. That was the first rate cut since April. The Reserve Bank of India was able to cut the rate to give some support to the economy after inflation fell to a 3-year low.
  Market Comments
  • March E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -0.35% on long liquidation pressure after the recent rally and on the -0.32% sell-off in European stocks this morning. The S&P 500 index on Monday opened higher on carry-over strength from a rally in the Shanghai stock index to a 7-month high after Chinese industrial companies' profits gained for a fourth month and after U.S. Dec durable goods a rose more than expected, but stock prices fell back and closed mixed when U.S. Dec pending home sales unexpectedly declined. Closes: S&P 500 -0.18%, Dow Jones -0.10%, Nasdaq +0.21%. U.S. Dec pending home sales fell -4.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, while Dec durable goods orders rose +4.6% and +1.3% ex transportation, stronger than expectations of +2.0% and +0.8% ex transportation. Another positive for stocks is strong earnings results as 75% of the 150 S&P 500 companies that have released earnings this quarter have beaten estimates.
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up 5 ticks on short-covering after the steep recent losses and on this morning's lower trade in E-mini S&Ps. March 10-year T-note prices on Monday slumped to a 9-month nearest-futures low on reduced safe-haven demand after Dec durable goods orders rose more than expected along with supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $99 billion of T-notes this week. Closes: TYH3 -6.0, FVH3 -4.25. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 9-month high of 2.003%.
  • The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.02 (+0.03%), while EUR/USD is down -0.0020 (-0.15%). USD/JPY is down -0.36 yen (-0.40%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly higher as the stronger-than-expected Dec durable goods orders reduced speculation of additional Fed easing, which is dollar supportive. USD/JPY rallied to another fresh 2-1/2 year high as the prospects of further BOJ quantitative easing undercut the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.051 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.00086 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.024 (-0.02%).
  • March WTI crude oil this morning is up +0.03 (+0.03%) and March gasoline is -0.0189 (-0.64%). Mar crude oil and gasoline Monday closed higher on economic optimism after Dec durable goods orders increased more than expected, while gasoline jumped to a 3-1/2 month high after Hess Corp. said it was closing its 70,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Port Reading, New Jersey next month. Crude prices also received a boost after OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said the cartel sees no price collapse in 2013 on expected global demand growth. Closes: CLH3 +0.56 (+0.58%), RBH3 +0.0511 (+1.77%).
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    Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): PFE-Pfizer (consensus $0.44), AMZN-Amazon.com (0.79), LLY-Eli Lilly (0.79), EMC-EMC Corp (0.52), F-Ford Motor (0.25), DHR-Danaher (0.86), NEE-Nextera Energy (0.95), ITW-Illinois Tool (0.91), ACE-ACE Ltd (1.28), VLO-Valero Energy (1.20), BRCM-Broadcom (0.74), IP-International Paper (0.65), TROW-T Rowe Price (0.89), GLW-Corning (0.32), BXP-Boston Properties (0.39), NUE-Nucor (0.30), TYC-Tyco International (0.39), HOG-Harley-Davidson (0.33), PNR-Pentair (0.44), VRTX-Vertex Pharm (0.11), BSX-Boston Scientific (0.11).
    Global Financial Calendar

    Tuesday 1/29/13
    United States
    0900 ET	Nov S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.7% m/m and +5.5% y/y, Oct +0.66% m/m and +4.31% y/y.
    1000 ET	Jan consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected -1.1 to 64.0, Dec -6.4 to 65.1.
    1300 ET	Treasury auction of $35 billion in 5-year T-notes.
    1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
    n/a	FOMC 2-day meeting begins.
    Germany
    0200 ET	German Feb GfK consumer confidence survey expected 5.7, Jan 5.6.
    Japan
    0000 ET	Japan Jan small business confidence, Dec 43.8.
    1850 ET	Japan Dec retail trade expected +0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Nov -0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Dec large retailer sales expected -1.0% y/y, Nov +0.9% y/y.