Tuesday, July 7, 2015

The Hell with Greece - What about the BRICs?

Everyone seems fixated upon what is happening in Greece but totally ignoring what is happening with the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In terms of Gross Domestic Product look at the rankings from the CIA Fact Book for 2014:

  • #1 China - $17,630,000,000,000
  • #2 EU - $17,590,000,000,000
  • #3 USA - $17,460,000,000,000
  • #4 India - $7,277,000,000,000
  • #7  Russia - $3,568,000,000,000
  • #8 Brazil - $3,073,000,000,000
  • #53 Greece - $284,300,000,000
What a distant #53 - Percentage of the other counties' GDP:
  • China - 1.6%
  • EU - 1.6%
  • USA - 1.6%
  • India - 3.9%
  • Russia - 7.9%
  • Brazil - 9.2%
If I use the Value Line Index for the US and an ETF's of each country, how far off their recent high are they?:
  • USA - $VLA - 4.26%
  • China - MCHI  - 22.56%
  • India - INDA - 7.70%
  • Russia - ERUS - 36.00
  • Brazil - EWZ - 42.27%
  • BRICs - BKF - 14.86%
  • Greece - GREK - 56.26%
If I graph each of the BRIC ETFs over the last 2 1/2 months the losses look like this:


Only India is holding its own.

If I compare the Value Line Index over the last 2 1/2 months to Greece and the BRICs  - The BRICs has lost as much as the Greek ETF even with India beefing up the results:


My Conclusion - Greece is a drop in the bucket.  If you want to worry; worry about China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia and Brazil.  I am not predicting doom and gloom but I think the best days of the Market are behind us.  It appears we've reached the mountain top and there is much more downside potential than upside.

My Advice:  Be ready to prune your portfolio of any stock down more than 10% and let the proceeds sit on the side lines until we see what is happening.


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