Overnight Developments
- March E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.25% ahead of this morning's Jan payroll report, which is expected to show an increase of +165,000. The U.S. Jan ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 50.6. E-mini S&Ps are getting a boost overnight from generally positive Chinese manufacturing PMI data and a +0.12% rally in European stocks this morning. Europe received some favorable labor market news with the lower-than-expected Eurozone unemployment rate of 11.7%. Spanish stocks are down -1.81% today as a short-selling ban expired. Asian stocks are mixed this morning with Japan up +0.47%, Hong Kong down -0.03%, and China up sharply by +2.10%. Commodity prices are up +0.24% today. March crude oil is down -0.26%, March gasoline is down -0.59%, April gold is up +0.31%, March copper is down -0.09%, and agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index is down -0.21% while EUR/USD is up +0.49% on news of additional early-payoffs next week of LTRO loans. USD/JPY is up +0.45%. March 10-year T-note prices are down -5.5 ticks.
- China's manufacturing PMI data was considered net favorable as the HSBC index rose while the small decline in the official PMI was written off as the result of a faulty seasonal adjustment. Both indexes remained above the expansion-contraction level of 50.0. China's Jan HSBC manufacturing PMI rose by +0.8 points to a new 2-year high of 52.3 from 51.5 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations for a +0.5 point increase to 52.0. However, the Jan manufacturing PMI from China's National Bureau of Statistics fell by -0.2 points to 50.4 from 50.6 in December and was weaker than market expectations for a +0.4 point increase to 51.0.
- Germany's final-Jan manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 from 48.8 while the Eurozone final-Jan PMI was revised higher to 47.9 from 47.5.
- The UK Jan manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 points to 50.8 from a revised 51.2 in Dec and was weaker than market expectations of a decline to 51.0.
- The Eurozone Dec unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.7% and showed a better labor market than the expected climb in the unemployment rate to a new record high of 11.9%. The Nov rate was revised lower to 11.7% from 11.8%. The report provided some much-needed positive news that the Eurozone labor market at least did not get any worse in December. The report showed that there are 18.7 million unemployed persons in the Eurozone and that the youth unemployment rate is at 24%. Spain had the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone at the depressionary level of 26.1%.
- The Jan Eurozone CPI eased to +2.0% y/y from +2.2% y/y in Dec and was weaker than market expectations of +2.2% y/y.
- Japan's Jan vehicle sales report of -12.9% y/y was weaker than the Dec report of -3.4% y/y. The weak report reflected the lower sales volume of Japanese vehicles in China due to the Japan-China dispute over the islands in the East China Sea.
Market Comments- March E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.25%) on favorable Chinese and European economic data overnight. The S&P 500 index on Thursday settled lower as long liquidation set in ahead of Friday's Jan payroll report. Closes: S&P 500 -0.26%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq -0.26%. Bearish factors included the +38,000 increase in weekly initial unemployment claims (more than expectations of +20,000), and the +0.2% increase in Dec personal spending (weaker than expectations of +0.3%). Supportive factors included the +2.6% increase in Dec personal income (stronger than expectations of +0.8%), the Jan Chicago purchasing managers index of +5.6 to 55.6 (better than expectations of +1.6 to 50.5 and its strongest pace of growth in 9 months), and continued strong quarterly stock earnings results as 75% of the 232 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings so far this season have beaten profit estimates.
- March 10-year T-notes this morning are down 5.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with generally higher global stock markets this morning. March 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed higher as weak stocks and a larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial jobless claims offset the bearish Jan Chicago purchasing managers index that grew at its fastest pace in 9 months. Closes: TYH3 +3.0, FVH3 +1.25.
- The dollar index this morning is down -0.16 points (-0.21%) while EUR/USD is up +0.0066 (+0.49%) and USD/JPY is up +0.41 (+0.45%). EUR/USD is higher on positive labor market data and news that banks next week will pay off more of their 3-year emergency LTRO loans early. The dollar index on Thursday posted a new 5-week low and closed lower on speculation of continued dollar-negative Fed stimulus after U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more than expected. EUR/USD climbed to a fresh 14-1/2 month high after German Jan unemployment fell by -16,000, which showed a stronger labor market than market expectations for an +8,000 increase. USD/JPY rallied to another 2-1/2 year high on expectations for further asset purchases from the BOJ, which is negative for the yen. Closes: Dollar index -0.074 (-0.09%), EUR/USD +0.00106 (+0.08%), USD/JPY +0.617 (+0.67%).
- March WTI crude oil this morning is down -0.25 (-0.26%) and March gasoline is down -0.0179 (-0.59%). Mar crude oil and gasoline Thursday closed lower on concerns over the strength of the global economy after U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more than expected and German Dec retail sales and Japan Dec industrial production were weaker than expected. Limiting declines were the slide in the dollar index to a fresh 5-week low along with reduced OPEC output after a survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed Jan OPEC oil production fell -1.7% m/m to 30.479 million barrels a day, the slowest output in 15 months. Closes: CLH3 -0.45 (-0.46%), RBH3 -0.0015 (-0.05%).
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Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): XOM-Exxon Mobil (consensus $2.00), CVX-Chevron (3.06), MRK-Merck (0.81), LYB-Lyondellbasell (1.14), NOV-National Oilwell Varco (1.44), BEN-Franklin Res (2.38), AON-AON (1.25), IR-Ingersoll Rand (0.70), MAT-Mattel (1.15), BEAM-Beam Inc (0.66), PRGO-Perrigo (1.31), TSN-Tyson Foods (0.42, NWL-Newell Rubbermaid ((0.42), RLGY-Realogy Holdings (-0.11), LEA-Lear (1.38), NS-Nustar Energy (0.38), BRO-Brown & Brown (0.27), LM-Legg Mason (0.53), CYMI-Cymer (0.04), UFS-Domtar (1.36), TDW-Tidewater (0.42).
Global Financial CalendarFriday 2/1/13 United States 0830 ET Jan non-farm payrolls expected +165,000, Dec +155,000. Jan private payrolls expected +169,000, Dec +168,000. Jan manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Dec +25,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unchanged at 7.8%, Dec unchanged at 7.8%. 0830 ET Jan avg hourly earnings expected +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jan avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.5 hours, Dec 34.5 hours. 0955 ET Final Jan University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.2 to 71.5, early-Jan -1.6 to 71.3. 1000 ET Dec construction spending expected +0.6%, Nov -0.3%. 1000 ET Jan ISM manufacturing index expected +0.4 to 50.6, Dec +0.3 to 50.2 (revised from 50.7). Jan prices-paid expected +0.5 to 56.0 from 55.5. 1700 ET Jan total vehicle sales expected 15.20 mln, Dec 15.30 mln. Jan domestic vehicle sales expected 11.97 mln, Dec 11.97 mln. Japan 0000 ET Jan vehicle sales, Dec -3.4% y/y. Germany 0355 ET German final-Jan manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from preliminary 48.8. Euro-Zone 0400 ET Eurozone final-Jan manufacturing PMI expected unrevised from preliminary 47.5. 0500 ET Eurozone Dec unemployment rate expected 11.9%, Nov 11.8%. 0500 ET Eurozone Jan CPI expected +2.2% y/y, Dec +2.2% y/y. United Kingdom 0430 ET UK Jan manufacturing PMI expected -0.4 to 51.0, Dec 51.4.
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