Tuesday, October 28th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.54%) this morning are up +0.51% and European stocks are up +0.95% ahead of the start of the 2-day FOMC meeting where the Fed is expected to announce an end to its QE3 bond purchase program. Sweden's Riksbank unexpectedly cut its main interest rate to zero and said it won't raise interest rates until "inflation clearly picks up" in mid-2016 in an attempt to jolt the Swedish economy out of a deflationary spiral. The Russian ruble dropped to a record low of 42.597 per dollar on concern the Russian central bank will move to a free float after more than $20 billion of currency interventions this month failed to stem the ruble's decline. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.38%, Hong Kong +1.63%, China +2.02%, Taiwan +1.69%, Australia -0.12%, Singapore -0.45%, South Korea -0.24%, India +0.48%. Japanese stocks closed lower after stronger-than-expected Japan Sep retail sales dampened speculation the BOJ will expand stimulus measures when it meets for a 2-day meeting on Thursday. Chinese stocks closed higher after China Sep industrial profits rose from the prior month. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 +0.60%) is up +0.17%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.62%) is up +0.24%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.12%) is down -0.11%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.47%) is up +0.44% at a 1-1/2 week high on the threat of a strike by workers at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the third-largest in the world. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher with Dec corn up +1,86% at a 2-month high and Nov soybeans up +1.69% at a 1-3/4 month high on carry-over support from a rally in soybean meal prices to a 4-month high as near-record beef and pork prices boost demand for animal feed to fatten hogs and cattle. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.15%) are down -5 ticks.German Sep import prices unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, higher than expectations of a -0.1% m/m decline and the first increase in 3 months. On an annual basis Sep import prices fell -1.6% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.9% y/y, but still the twenty-first consecutive month that import prices have fallen year-over-year. Japan Sep retail sales rose +2.7% m/m and +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +0.8% y/y and the largest increase in 6 months. China Sep industrial profits rose +0.4% y/y, an improvement from the -0.6% y/y decline in Aug.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The markets are unanimously expecting the FOMC at its 2-day meeting that begins today to end QE3 with a final $15 billion cut. Today's Aug S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a small increase of +0.18% m/m, recovering a bit after the -0.50% decline seen in July. Today's Oct U.S. consumer confidence index ifrom the Conference Board is expected to show a +1.1 point increase to 87.1, recovering a bit after the sharp -7.4 point decline to 86.0 seen in September. Today’s Sep durable goods orders report is expected to show an overall increase of +0.5% and an +0.5% increase ex-transportation. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 2-year T-notes.There are 49 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Facebook (consensus $0.40), Pfizer (0.55), PG&E (1.14), Cummings (2.28), du Pont (0.53), Aetna (1.58), Freeport-McMoRan (0.61), Electronic Arts (0.53), Wynn Resorts (1.83), Ameriprise (1.96). Equity conferences this week include: RMA Annual Risk Management Conference 2014 on Mon-Tue, and GTEC (Government Technology Exhibition & Conference) 2014 on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Aetna (AET +0.62%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.79, higher than consensus of $1.58.Pfizer (PFE -0.27%) reported Q3 EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents. Manitowoc (MTW -0.94%) slipped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 36 cents, below consensus of 42 cents. Crane (CR -0.10%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.12, weaker than consensus of $1.17, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $4.40-$4.50 from $4.55-$4.75, below consensus of $4.62. Masco (MAS -0.48%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 31 cents, less than consensus of 32 cents. Davidson Kempner Partners reported a 11.47% passive stake in Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE -1.49%) . Kohl's (KSS -0.91%) dropped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 same-store sales down -1.4% and that fiscal 2014 EPS will be at the low end of $4.05-$4.45, weaker than consensus of $4.30. HealthSouth (HLS +0.27%) reported Q3 EPS of 53 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents. Reinsurance Group (RGA +0.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.28, stronger than consensus of $2.07. Hartford Financial (HIG +0.37%) reported Q3 EPS of 86 cents, higher than consensus of 83 cents. Symetra Financial (SYA +0.13%) reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents, weaker than consensus of 44 cents. AvalonBay (AVB +0.81%) reported Q3 FFO of $2.14, higher than consensus of $2.00. Allison Transmission (ALSN +0.10%) reported Q3 EPS of 38 cents, stronger than consensus of 30 cents. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD -1.17%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.14, better than consensus of $1.07. Amgen (AMGN +0.64%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.30, well above consensus of $2.11, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $8.45-$8.55 from $8.20-$8.40, higher than consensus of $8.42. General Growth Properties (GGP +0.97%) reported Q3 FFO of 33 cents, higher than consensus of 31 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.54%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.51%). The S&P 500 index on Monday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.15%, Dow Jones +0.07%, Nasdaq +0.10%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over selling from a slide in European stocks after the German Oct IFO business confidence fell for a sixth month to a 1-3/4 year low, (2) the +0.3% m/m increase in U.S. Sep pending home sales, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m, and (3) the -1.6 point decline in the U.S. Oct Markit composite PMI to 57.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.15%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday recovered from a 2-week low and closed higher. Closes: TYZ4 +3.50, FVZ4 +2.75. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices after the German Oct IFO business climate fell more than expected to a 1-3/4 year low, (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep pending home sales, which bolstered optimism the Fed will maintain record-low interest rates even as it ends QE3, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks fell. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning isup +0.131 (+0.15%) . EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.02%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.27 (+0.25%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. Closes: Dollar index -0.237 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.00286 (+0.23%), USD/JPY -0.322 (-0.30%). Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Sep pending home sales, which boosted speculation that the weak data will prompt the Fed to delay raising interest rates, and (2) the positive results of the ECB’s bank stress tests, which eased concern about the health of European banks. Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 +0.60%) this morning is up +14 cents (+0.17%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 +0.62%) is up +0.0051 (+0.24%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Monday closed lower with Dec crude falling to a 2-1/3 year low. Closes: CLZ4 -0.01 (-0.01%), RBZ4 -0.0178 (-0.83%). Bearish factors included (1) Goldman Sachs’ cut in its Q1 2015 WTI crude oil price estimate to $75 a barrel from $90 a barrel, citing a rise in global supplies, and (2) demand concerns in Europe after the German Oct IFO business climate fell more than expected to a 1-3/4 year low. Crude rebounded from its worst losses after the dollar fell.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/28/2014
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/28/2014
|
| US | 0830 ET | Q4 employment cost index expected +0.4%, Q3 +0.4%. |
| 0830 ET | Dec personal spending expected +0.2%, Nov +0.5%. Dec personal income expected +0.2%, Nov +0.2%. Dec PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Nov unch m/m and +0.9% y/y. Dec core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y. | |
| 0945 ET | Jan Chicago PMI expected -1.8 to 59.0, Dec -2.2 to 60.8. | |
| 0955 ET | Final Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 81.0, previous -2.1 to 80.4. | |
| 1315 ET | Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks about Fed operations and the economy at a community forum hosted by the Dallas Fed. | |
| 2400 ET | Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes term expires, paving the way for Janet Yellen to become the new Fed Chairperson. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Dec housing starts expected +13.6% y/y to 1.000 million. Nov +14.1% y/y to 1.033 million. |
| 0000 ET | Japan Dec construction orders, Nov +2.2% y/y. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Dec retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Nov +0.8% m/m and +1.6% y/y. |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jan Lloyds business barometer, Dec 48. |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Dec unemployment rate expected unch at 12.1%, Nov 12.1%. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Jan CPI estimate expected +0.9% y/y, Dec +0.8% y/y. Jan core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, Dec +0.7% y/y. | |
| CHI | 2000 ET | China Jan manufacturing PMI expected -0.5 to 50.5, Dec 51.0. |
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mead Johnson Nutrition Co | MJN US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.765 |
| Newell Rubbermaid Inc | NWL US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.461 |
| LyondellBasell Industries NV | LYB US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.401 |
| AbbVie Inc | ABBV US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.823 |
| Tyco International Ltd | TYC US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.451 |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.598 |
| Weyerhaeuser Co | WY US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.28 |
| National Oilwell Varco Inc | NOV US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.389 |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.638 |
| Simon Property Group Inc | SPG US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 2.431 |
| Mattel Inc | MAT US | 6:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.204 |
| Aon PLC | AON US | 6:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 1.508 |
| CONSOL Energy Inc | CNX US | 7:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.061 |
| Legg Mason Inc | LM US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.99 |
| Dominion Resources Inc/VA | D US | 7:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.886 |
| Morgan Stanley | MS US | 8:00 | Fixed Income Investor Update Call | ||
| Tyco International Ltd | TYC US | 8:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Actavis plc | ACT US | 8:00 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| PACCAR Inc | PCAR US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.927 |
| Legg Mason Inc | LM US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Eastman Chemical Co | EMN US | 8:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Aon PLC | AON US | 8:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Avery Dennison Corp | AVY US | 8:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.681 |
| Chevron Corp | CVX US | 8:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 2.567 |
| Mattel Inc | MAT US | 8:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Newell Rubbermaid Inc | NWL US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| AbbVie Inc | ABBV US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| National Oilwell Varco Inc | NOV US | 9:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | 9:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Mead Johnson Nutrition Co | MJN US | 9:30 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Newmont Mining Corp | NEM US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Sales and Revenue Call | Q4 2013 | |
| CONSOL Energy Inc | CNX US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Dominion Resources Inc/VA | D US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Weyerhaeuser Co | WY US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Simon Property Group Inc | SPG US | 10:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| LyondellBasell Industries NV | LYB US | 11:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Chevron Corp | CVX US | 11:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2014 | |
| PACCAR Inc | PCAR US | 12:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Avery Dennison Corp | AVY US | 13:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co | BMY US | PDUFA, tasimelteon, Non-24-Hour Disorder in the totally blind |
View Older Reports| US | 0930 ET | IMF releases global economic forecasts and World Economic Outlook update. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $32 billion in 3-year T-notes. | |
| 1630 ET | API weekly U.S. oil statistics. | |
| JPN | 0200 ET | Japan Jun machine tool orders, May -7.4% y/y. |
| 1950 ET | Japan Jun domestic CGPI expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan May tertiary industry index expected +0.8% m/m, Apr unch m/m. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and -0.6% y/y. UK May manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK May visible trade balance expected -8.485 bln pounds, April -8.224 bln pounds. UK non-EU May trade balance expected -3.480 bln pounds, Apr -3.414 bln pounds. UK May total trade balance expected -2.6 bln pounds, April -2.579 bln pounds. | |
| 1000 ET | UK Jun NIESR Jun GDP estimate, May +0.6%. | |
| CHI | 2200 ET | China Jun trade balance expected +27.80 billion, May +$20.42 billion. Jun exports expected +3.7% y/y, May +1.0% y/y. Jun imports expected +6.0% y/y, May -0.3% y/y. |
| n/a | China Jun new yuan loans expected 830.0 billion yuan, May 667.4 billion yuan. |
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Mills Inc | GIS US | 10:00 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Lam Research Corp | LRCX US | 13:30 | Investor and Analyst Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Danaher Corp | DHR US | 14:00 | Analyst and Investor Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| KLA-Tencor Corp | KLAC US | Analyst Day | |||
| CNH Global NV | CNH US | Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 | ||
| Healthcare Trust of America Inc | HTA US | Annual General Meeting |
