MORNING CALL 9/1

MORNING CALL 9/1

Thursday, September 1st, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.15%) are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +1.00% at a 2-week high amid positive signs for global growth. Manufacturing activity in China unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in nearly 2 years last month and manufacturing activity in the UK expanded at the fastest pace in 10 months. Mining stocks are leading gains in the overall market with Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto up over 1% as signs of stronger global manufacturing activity boosts copper prices. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.23%, Hong Kong +0.81%, China -0.72%, Taiwan -0.75%, Australia-0.32%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea -0.33%, India -0.10%. Despite the stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, Chinese stocks closed lower on speculation the stronger data will reduce the chances of additional government stimulus. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 2-1/2 week high as exporter stocks rallied after USD/JPY rose to a 1-month high, which improves the earnings prospects of exporter companies.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25% at a 1-month high.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ16 -0.16%) are down -8 ticks.

The UK Aug Markit manufacturing PMI rose +5.0 to 53.3, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 49.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 10 months.

The China Aug manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 50.4, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 49.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 1-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug Challenger job cuts (Jul -57.1% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +4,000 to 265,000, previous-1,000 to 261,000) and continuing claims (expected -2,000 to 2.143 million, previous -30,000 to 2.145 million), (3) revised Q2 non-farm productivity (expected -0.6%, prelim-Q1 -0.5%) and revised Q2 unit labor costs (expected +2.0%, prelim-Q2 +2.0%), (4) final-Aug Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 52.1, prelim-Aug -0.8 to 52.1), (5) Jul construction spending (expected +0.5%, Jun -0.6% m/m), (6) Aug ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.6 to 52.0, Jul -0.6 to 52.6), (7) Aug total vehicle sales (expected 17.20 million, Jul 17.77 million), and (8) USDA weekly Export Sales.

Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Campbell Soup (consensus $0.50), Cooper Cos (2.28), VeriFone (0.40), lululemon athletica (0.38), Broadcom (2.76), Piedmont Natural Gas (-0.10), Hain Celestial Group (0.56).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Charter Communications (CHTR +0.46%) rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace EMC in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on Wednesday, September 7.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN -0.92%) is up over 3% and Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.47%) is up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after data showed Macau gross gaming revenue unexpectedly rose +1.1% in Aug, better than expectations of a -1.5% decline.

Ctrip.com International Ltd (CTRP unch) reported Q2 revenue of $683.5 million, above consensus of $656.7 million.

Box (BOX +3.15%) rallied 4% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on full-year revenue to $394 million-$396 million from a prior view of $391 million-$395 million.

Semtech (SMTC +1.29%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI -1.17%) climbed 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 21 cents, better than consensus of 18 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to 88 cents-90 cents from a prior view of 85 cents-87 cents.

salesforce.com (CRM -0.51%) tumbled over 8% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS of 20 cents-21 cents, below consensus of 24 cents.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL +0.64%) fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 22 cents, weaker than consensus of 27 cents, and then said it sees fiscal year comparable sales up +1.5% -2.0%, below a May 19 view of up 1% to 3%.

Impinj (PI +0.31%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 6 cents, double consensus of 3 cents.

Five Below (FIVE -0.56%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 comparable sales rose +3.1%, below consensus of +3.4%.

Oxford Industries (OXM -2.01%) jumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS continuing operations of $1.48, better than expectations of $1.38.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.15%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.16%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq -0.10%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed lower on the -4.3 point decline in the Aug Chicago PMI to 51.5, weaker than expectations of -1.8 to 54.0. There was also weakness in energy producer stocks as crude oil tumbled -3.56% to a 2-week low. In addition, there was increased concern about a Fed rate hike after the Aug ADP employment report showed an increase of +177,000 and July was revised upward to +194,000 from +179,000.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16 -0.16%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ6 unch, FVZ6 +0.50. Dec T-notes on Wednesday closed little changed. T-note prices were undercut by the slightly larger-than-expected increase in the Aug ADM employment report of +177,000 and by the stronger-than-expected U.S. July pending home sales report. T-notes received a boost from the slide in stocks and the weaker-than-expected Aug Chicago PMI.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0009 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26 (+0.25%) at a new 1-month high. Wednesday's closes: Dollar index -00324 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.13%), USD/JPY +0.47 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Wednesday climbed to a 3-week high but fell back and closed slightly lower. The dollar was boosted by the stronger-than-expected Aug ADP employment change and weakness in the yen after USD/JPY soared to a 1-month high on expectations for further BOJ stimulus measures in September. The dollar shed its advance after the Aug Chicago PMI fell more than expected.

Oct crude oil (CLV16 -0.13%) this morning is down -3 cents (-0.07%) and Oct gasoline (RBV16 -0.94%) is down -0.0124 (-0.93%). Wednesday's closes: CLV6 -1.65 (-3.56%), RBV6 -0.0356 (-2.59%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday sold off to new 2-week lows and closed lower. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high and the +2.28 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of +1.5 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/01/2016

		Thursday, Sep 1
US	0730 ET	Aug Challenger job cuts, Jul -57.1% y/y.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 265,000, previous -1,000 to 261,000. Weekly continuing claims expected unch at 2.145 million, previous -30,000 to 2.145 million.
	0830 ET	Revised Q2 non-farm productivity expected -0.6%, prelim-Q1 -0.5%. Revised Q2 unit labor costs expected +2.0%, prelim-Q2 +2.0%.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0945 ET	Revised Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.1, prelim-Aug -0.8 to 52.1.
	1000 ET	Jul construction spending expected +0.5%, Jun -0.6% m/m.
	1000 ET	Aug ISM manufacturing index expected -0.6 to 52.0, Jul -0.6 to 52.6. Aug ISM new orders, Jul +0.4 to 60.3. Aug ISM employment, Jul -1.3to 51.4. Aug ISM prices paid expected -0.2 to 54.8, Jul -5.5 to 55.0.
	n/a	Aug total vehicle sales expected 17.20 million, Jul 17.77 million. Aug domestic vehicle sales expected 13.50 million, Jul 13.77 million.
		Friday, Sep 2
US	0830 ET	Aug non-farm payrolls expected +180,000, Jul +255,000. Aug private payrolls expected +180,000, Jul +217,000. Aug manufacturing payrolls expected -4,000, Jul +9,000. Aug unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 4.8%, Jul unch at 4.9%.
	0830 ET	Aug avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Jul +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Aug avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.5 hours, Jul unch at 34.5 hours.
	0830 ET	Jul trade balance expected -$41.5 billion, Jun -$44.5 billion.
	0945 ET	Aug New York ISM, Jul +15.3 to 60.7.
	1000 ET	Jul factory orders expected +2.0%, Jun -1.5% and +0.4% ex transportation.
	1300 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) speaks to the Virginia Association of Economists and the Richmond Association for Business Economics on Interest Rate Benchmarks.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan Aug consumer confidence index expected +0.5 to 41.8, Jul -0.5 to 41.3.
UK	0430 ET	UK Aug Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.4 to 46.3, Jul -0.1 to 45.9.
EUR	0200 ET	ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson takes part in a parliamentary hearing about EU future outlook in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.
	0500 ET	Eurozone Jul PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Jun +0.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/01/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Campbell Soup Co	CPB US	7:15	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.498
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	August 2016 Sales and Revenue Call - Pre-Recorded	2016
Campbell Soup Co	CPB US	8:30	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Ford Motor Co	F US	9:15	August 2016 Sales and Revenue Release	2016
Ford Motor Co	F US	10:00	August 2016 Sales and Revenue Call	2016
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.404
lululemon athletica Inc	LULU US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 2017	0.38
Broadcom Ltd	AVGO US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	2.762
L Brands Inc	LB US		August 2016 Sales and Revenue Release	2016
Piedmont Natural Gas Co Inc	PNY US		Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	-0.095
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The	HAIN US		Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.559
General Motors Co	GM US		August 2016 Sales and Revenue Release	2016

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/8

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, June 8th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.07%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.78% at a 3-1/2 month low. The ongoing Greek debt crisis continues to weigh on stocks as the Greek government needs to seal an accord with creditors or get another extension before the end of the month. The 10-year Greek bond yield rose +17 bp to a 4-session high of 11.39%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.02%, Hong Kong +0.21%, China +2.17%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia close for holiday, Singapore -0.40%, South Korea -0.29%, India -0.92%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 7-1/3 year high on speculation that MSCI Inc. will include A shares of Chinese stocks in its emerging-market indexes. China, through its companies listed in Hong Kong, accounts for more than 25% of the emerging-market benchmark, the largest weighting in the gauge. MSCI has kept China's A shares out of its indexes due to limitations on their tradability and will decide on Tuesday whether to include China's locally stocks in its equity benchmarks.
Commodity prices are mixed. Jul crude oil (CLN15 -0.68%) is down -0.88%. Jul gasoline (RBN15 -0.49%) is down -0.55%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.43%) is up +0.39%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.11%) is down -0.28%. Agricultural prices are higher.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% on upbeat comments from ECH Governing Council member Nowotny. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26% on stronger-than-expected Q1 Japan GDP.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.05%) are up +4 ticks.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the Eurozone's economic downturn "is over." He said the Eurozone has overcome the risk of deflation as the ECB's asset purchases have had the desired effect. He added that economic development in Europe is "positive," although challenges remain.
The China May trade balance widened to a surplus of +$59.49 billion from +$34.13 billion in Apr, more than expectations of +$44.80 billion. May exports fell -2.5% y/y, less than expectations of -4.4% y/y. May imports fell -17.6% y/y, more than expectations of -10.0% y/y.
Japan Q1 GDP was revised upward to 3.9% q/q annualized from the originally reported 2.4% q/q annualized, stronger than expectations of 2.8% q/q annualized and the fastest pace of growth in a year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) the second day of the 2-day G-7 Summit in Germany.
There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Sears (consensus -$2.59), H&R Block (2.68).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference (WWDC15) on Mon-Fri, Nomura Retail Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Energy Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, NAREIT REITWeek Investor Forum on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank db Access Global Consumer Conference on Tue-Thu, William Blair Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs European Payments Conference on Wed, Macquarie Group Ltd. Global Metals, Mining & Materials Conference on Wed, Gabelli & Co., Inc. Movie & Entertainment Conference on Thu, Goldman Sachs 2020 Vision Chemicals Conference on Thu, Susquehanna Energy and Industrials Conference on Thu, Barclays High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Delta Air Lines (DAL -0.05%) and United Continental (UAL -0.88%) were both downgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
CBOE Holdings (CBOE -0.64%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Evercore.
Wal-Mart (WMT -1.47%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Affiliated Managers (AMG -0.39%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $258.
Franklin Resources (BEN +0.28%) was initiated with a 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $49.
BlackRock (BLK -0.70%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $421.
Home Depot (HD -0.98%) was initiated with an 'Overweight' at Atlantic Equities witha price target of $128.
Invesco (IVZ +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Energy Transfer Equity (ETE +2.43%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $92.
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP +0.66%) was reinstated with an 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $70.
Huntington Ingalls (HII +0.24%) was awarded a $3.35 billion government contract for detail, design and construction of CVN 79, the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy.
AB Value Partners reported a 6.61% stake in Image Sensing Systems (ISNS -0.96%) .
Soros Fund reported a 5.19% passive stake in MaxLinear (MXL +0.66%) .
Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY -0.91%) reported Q2 EPS of 84 cents, better than consensus of 79 cents, although Q2 revenue of $424.9 million was weaker than consensus of $488.8 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.07%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.10%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.14%, Dow Jones -0.31%, Nasdaq -0.22%. The S&P 500 on Friday slid to a 3-1/2 week low and closed lower on concern about an accelerated Fed rate hike after the +280,000 increase in U.S. May non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +226,000 and the largest increase in 5 months. In addition, there continued to be concern about the Greek crisis after the Greek PM appeared to reject the take-it-or-leave-it offer by the Eurozone/IMF.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.05%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -26.50, FVU5 -15.75. Sep T-notes on Friday slumped to an 8-month low and closed lower on concerns that the Fed might be closer to a rate hike after the stronger-than-expected U.S. May payroll report of +280,000. In addition, May average hourly earnings rose by +2.3% y/y, more than expectations of +2.2% y/y and the largest annual increase in 1-3/4 years.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.022 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33 (-0.26%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.845 (+0.89%), EUR/USD -0.01275 (-1.13%), USD/JPY +1.220 (+0.98%). The dollar index on Friday settled higher on the possibility of an accelerated Fed rate hike after the strong U.S. May payroll report of +280,000. In addition, the euro was undercut by the Greek crisis after Greece deferred a debt payment due to the IMF Friday until the end of the month. USD/JPY surged to a 13-year high on expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy while the BOJ expands stimulus.
July WTI crude oil (CLN15 -0.68%) this morning is down -52 cents (-0.88%). July gasoline (RBN15 -0.49%) is down -0.0112 (-0.55%). Friday's closes: CLN5 +0.96 (+1.66%), RBN5 +0.0465 (+2.35%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Friday rebounded from 1-week lows and closed higher on the larger-than-expected +280,000 increase in U.S. May non-farm payrolls, which signaled stronger economic growth and energy demand. In addition, Baker Hughes reported that U.S. operating oil rigs fell to a 4-3/4 year low of 642, which will undercut U.S. oil production. Other bearish factors included the stronger dollar and OPEC's decision to maintain its crude production target at 30 million bpd, thus keeping alive its price war on high-cost crude oil producers.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/08/2015

US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan May bankruptcies, Apr -18.16% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan May eco-watchers survey current expected +0.4 to 54.0, Apr 53.6. May eco-watchers survey outlook expected -0.2 to 54.0, Apr 54.2.
GER	0200 ET	German Apr industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Mar -0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
	0200 ET	German Apr trade balance expected +19.4 billion euros, Mar +23.0 billion euros. Apr exports expected -0.4% m/m, Mar +1.3% m/m. Apr imports expected +0.5% m/m, Mar +2.4% m/m.
	0200 ET	German Apr current account balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Mar +27.9 billion euros.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jun Sentix investor confidence expected -0.9 to 18.7, May 19.6.
UK	1901 ET	UK May BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.2% y/y, Apr -2.4% y/y.
CHI	2130 ET	China May CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Apr +1.5% y/y. China May PPI expected -4.5% y/y, Apr -4.6% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/08/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
American Airlines Group Inc	AAL US	Bef-mkt	May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results	2015
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US	6:00	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	-2.59
H&R Block Inc	HRB US	16:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
United Continental Holdings Inc	UAL US	17:00	May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational Performance	2015
H&R Block Inc	HRB US		Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	2.682
McDonald's Corp	MCD US		May 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Sears Holdings Corp	SHLD US		Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
GoPro Inc	GPRO US		Annual General Meeting

5 Great Small Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 600 Small Cap Index to find the 5 stocks with the best technical indicators and charts and found Post Properties (PPS), Marriot Vacations WorldWide (VAC), USA Mobility (USMO), Stone Energy (SGY) and Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY):

Post Properties (PPS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 5 new highs and up 1.80% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 64.54%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 49.19
• Recently traded at 50.38 with a 50 day moving average of 48.25

Marriot Vacations WorldWide (VAC)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 11 new highs and up 5.80% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 76.94%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 56.91
• Recently traded at 57.80 with a 50 day moving average of 52.16

USA Mobility (USMO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 27.69% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 76.87%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.47
• Recently traded at 18.86 with a 50 day moving average of 15.35

Store Energy (SGY)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 11 new highs and up 15.19% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 69.61%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 41.64
• Recently traded at 42.63 with a 50 day moving average of 35.70

Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 8 new highs and up 3.83% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 60.76%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.40
• Recently traded at 35.54 with a 50 day moving average of 33.94

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3//

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Friday, March 7th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are down -0.34% ahead of U.S. Feb payroll data later this morning. Losses in European stocks were muted after German Jan industrial production rose for a third month. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.92%, Hong Kong -0.19%, China -0.24%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +0.30%, Singapore +0.23%, South Korea -0.11%, India +1.89%. India's S&P Sensex Stock Index rose to a record after the India Q4 current-account deficit fell to a 4-year low, while Chinese stocks closed lower when a Chinese company defaulted after it failed to pay full interest on its bonds. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 +0.55%) is up +0.33%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 unch) is down -0.13%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.09%) is down -0.23%. May copper (HGK14 -2.25%) is down -2.03% at a 15-week low on Chinese demand concerns after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +9,034 MT to a 10-1/4 month high of 207,320 MT. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) is down -0.22% at a 4-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.30% at a 2-1/3 year high after the ECB on Thursday quashed expectations they will expand their stimulus measures. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 +0.08%) are up +3.5 ticks.
China's Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Company failed to pay full interest due today on its bonds, China's first onshore corporate bond default. Chaori's default, which occurred during the annual session of China's legislature, signals the government is willing to tolerate such failures and will back off its practice of bailing out companies with bad debt.
German Jan industrial production rose +0.8% m/m, right on expectations, and on an annual basis rose +5.0% y/y, greater than expectations of +3.9% y/y and the most in 2-1/3 years. Dec was revised upward to +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y from the originally reported -0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
The German Jan wholesale price index fell -0.1% m/m and -1.7% y/y. Dec was revised to +0.3% m/m and -1.3% y/y from the originally reported +0.4% m/m and -1.8% y/y.
The Japan Jan leading index CI rose +0.5 to 112.2, less than expectations of +0.7 to 112.4, but still the highest in 7-years. The Jan coincident index climbed +2.5 from an upward revised 112.3 in Dec to 114.8, better than expectations of +2.9 to 114.6 and the highest in 5-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market consensus for today’s payroll report is +150,000, which would be relatively weak but would at least be an improvement from +113,000 in January. Meanwhile, today’s Feb unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from January’s 5-1/2 year low of 6.6%. Today’s Jan U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen mildly to -$38.5 billion from -$38.7 billion in December. There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Foot Locker (consensus $0.76), Big Lots (1.38). There are no equity conferences today.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Staples (SPLS -15.30%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Citigroup lowered its Q3 earnings estimate for FedEx (FDX +0.28%) to $1.45 from $1.55, below the consensus of $1.54, to reflect the impact from severe winter weather.
Foot Locker (FL +0.85%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 82 cents, better than consensus of 76 cents.
Alon USA Energy (ALJ +2.02%) reported a Q4 EPS ex-items loss of -12 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -15 cents.
Safeway (SWY -0.03%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after Albertsons said it will acquire the company for $40 a share.
The Fresh Market (TFM -2.13%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, weaker than consensus of 42 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $1.56-$1.66, below consensus of $1.67.
Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY -0.91%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.26, stronger than consensus of $1.19, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.80-$1.90 from $1.73-$1.83, higher than consensus of $1.80.
Lehigh Gas (LGP -0.26%) reported Q4 EPS of 25 cents, weaker than consensus of 31 cents.
Gogo (GOGO -0.25%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after SAC Capital reported a 5.1% passive stake in the company.
Thor Industries (THO +1.54%) reported Q2 continuing operations EPS of 32 cents, below consensus of 36 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO -0.60%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.47, better than consensus of $1.46.
The Gap (GPS -0.75%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported comparable same-store-sales sales for February were down 7% versus a 3% increase last year.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.07%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 on Thursday posted a new record high and closed higher. Supportive factors included (1) the -26,000 drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low of 323,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -12,000, (2) signs of strength in Europe after German Jan factory orders rose +1.2% m/m (vs expectations of +0.9% m/m) and the ECB raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to +1.2% from +1.1% projected in Dec. Closes: S&P 500 +0.17%, Dow Jones +0.38%, Nasdaq 100 -0.17%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 +0.08%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday dropped to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected fall in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low and (2) reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 posted a record high. Closes: TYM4 -10.00, FVM4 -5.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) this morning is down -0.177 (-0.22%) at a 4-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0041 (+0.30%) at a 2-1/3 year high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13 (-0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday slumped to a 4-1/4 month low and closed lower. EUR/USD rose to a 2-1/4 month high after the ECB refrained from expanding stimulus and raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to +1.2% from +1.1% projected in Dec. USD/JPY rose to a 1-1/4 month high after a Japanese government advisory panel said Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pension fund, should shift its investment focus away from Japanese bonds, which clobbered the yen: Dollar index -0.446 (-0.56%), EUR/USD +0.01278 (+0.93%), USD/JPY +0.767 (+0.75%).
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 +0.55%) this morning is up +34 cents (+0.33%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 unch) is down -0.0038 (-0.13%). Apr crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher. Apr crude recovered from a 2-week low and Apr gasoline rebounded from a 3-week low on bullish factors that included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 4-1/4 month low, (2) the fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 3-month low, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high. Bearish factors included (1) expectations that tension between Ukraine and Russia won’t disrupt crude supplies and (2) the weaker than expected U.S Jan factory orders, a sign of weaker energy demand. Closes: CLJ4 +0.11 (+0.11%), RBJ4 +0.0052 (+0.18%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/07/2014

US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +150,000, Jan +113,000. Feb private payrolls expected +151,000, Jan +142,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +5,000, Jan +21,000. Feb unemployment rate expected unch at 6.6%, Jan -0.1 to 6.6%.
	0830 ET	Feb avg earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Jan +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Feb avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.4 hours, Jan 34.4 hours.
	0830 ET	Jan trade balance expected -$38.5 billion, Dec -$38.7 billion.
	1200 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the economy at Brooklyn College.
	1500 ET	Jan consumer credit expected +$14.0 billion, Dec +$18.756 billion.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan Jan leading index CI expected +0.7 to 112.4, Dec 111.7. Jan coincident index expected +2.9 to 114.6, Dec 111.7.
GER	0600 ET	German Jan industrial production expected +0.8% m/m and +3.9% y/y, Dec -0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
CHI	n/a	China Feb trade balance expected +$14.50 billion, Jan +$31.87 billion. Feb exports expected +7.5% y/y, Jan +10.6% y/y. Feb imports expected +7.6% y/y, Jan +10.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/07/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.755
Big Lots Inc	BIG US	8:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc	PEG US	8:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
AGL Resources Inc	GAS US	8:30	Analyst Day	Y 2014
Foot Locker Inc	FL US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Big Lots Inc	BIG US		Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.384
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc	HRC US		Annual General Meeting
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US		U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Mr. Peabody & Sherman""
Questar Corp	STR US		Analyst Day - Day 2	Y 2014

Barchart's Morning Call 6/8

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 8 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -7.75 points after Spain's credit rating was cut three steps by Fitch Ratings and after German exports declined for the first time this year. Commodity prices are weaker with crude oil down over $2 a barrel (-2.91%) and metals and agricultural prices lower. T-notes are up +22.5 ticks on a flight to safety after Spain's credit rating was cut. The dollar index is up sharply (+0.86%) as the euro tumbled (-0.82%) when German exports fell more than expected and after Spain's credit rating was cut.
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.62% after German exports fell more than forecast and Fitch Ratings cut Spain's credit Rating. The Asian stock markets today closed mostly lower on concern global central banks are not doing enough to fuel global growth after Fed Chairman Bernanke refrained from discussing any further Fed stimulus measures. Japan
• Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain's credit rating three levels to BBB, two steps off of non-investment grade, saying the cost of shoring up Spain's banks may be as much as 100 billion euros, compared with its previous estimate of 30 billion euros.
• The German Apr trade balance widened to 14.4 billion euros, more than the expected 12.3 billion euros, as Apr exports tumbled -1.7%, larger than expectations of -0.7% and Apr imports fell -4.8%, also a larger decline than expectations of -0.1%.
• European stocks and U.S. stock index futures moved up from their worst levels after an unnamed German government official said European finance ministers will hold a conference call this weekend to discuss a possible aid package for Spain.
• Germany's Bundesbank raised its 2012 German GDP forecast to +1.0% from a Dec estimate of +0.6%, citing a robust global economy, cheap financing conditions and solid domestic consumption, even as Europe's debt crisis presents an "exceptionally high" level of uncertainty. The Bundesbank also raised its 2012 German CPI estimate to 2.1% from a previous projection of 1.8%.
• The Bank of Italy reported that Italian bank purchases of the country's sovereign debt rose +1.4% to 295 billion euros in April, the most on record.
• ECB Council member Nowotny said a press conference in Vienna today that while the ECB never pre-commits on future policy actions, it "sees increased downside risks" on the economy and "may have to react." Nowotny also said that the ECB is unlikely to offer banks another longer term loan as "rate policy and liquidity must be seen in connection" with European fiscal policy measures.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading down -7.75 points on Spain's credit downgrade and weak German exports. The US stock market on Thursday closed mixed: S&P 500 -0.01%, Dow Jones +0.37%, Nasdaq 100 -0.43%. Stocks received an initial boost from China's surprise 25 bp interest rate cut and the successful Spanish bond auction. However, the stock market was later undercut by the 12,000 decline in initial unemployment claims and by Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before a Congressional panel in which he did not provide any hints of a new asset purchase program when Operation Twist expires at the end of this month. The Bank of England yesterday left its monetary policy unchanged, which was in line with market expectations.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +22.5 ticks on increased safe-haven demand as global equity markets tumble. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed mildly higher: TYU2 +6, FVU2 +2.5. T-note prices closed higher on Thursday on the late sell-off in stocks and continued worries about the global economy. In addition, T-notes received a safe-haven boost after Fitch downgraded Spain by three notches to BBB from A, which left Spain's rating only two notches above junk.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.709 (+0.86%) on increasede safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is weaker by -1.03 (-0.82%), while USD/JPY is down -0.34 (-0.43%). The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly lower: Dollar Index -0.050 (-0.06%), EUR/USD -0.0021 (-0.17%), USD/JPY +0.44 (+0.55%). The Chinese rate cut was bearish for the dollar because safe-haven demand for the dollar will decline if the Chinese economy can bottom out and turn higher in the second half of the year. However, the dollar found support from the late sell-off in stocks and the Fitch credit rating downgrade for Spain.
  • July WTI crude oil prices this morning are down sharply by -$2.47 a barrel (-2.91%) and July gasoline is down -5.58 cents per gallon (-2.08%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLN2 -0.86 (-1.01%), RBN2 -0.0165 (-0.61%). Crude oil prices theoretically should have received a bigger boost from the Chinese interest rate cut but instead closed lower on technical weakness, the inability of stocks to hold their gains, and ongoing concerns about global economic growth.
  • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (sorted by mkt cap): PNY-Piedmont Nat Gas (consensus $0.71), THO-Thor Industries (0.79).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Friday 6/8/12
    0830 ET	Apr U.S. trade balance expected -$49.5 bln, Mar -$51.8 bln. Annual trade revisions.
    1000 ET	Apr wholesale inventories expected +0.5%, Mar +0.3%.
    n/a	Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on economic theory in Ann Arbor, MI.
    Japan
    0030 ET	Japan May bankruptcies, Apr -6.7% y/y.
    0100 ET	Japan May eco watchers survey, Apr current 50.9, Apr outlook 50.9.
    Germany
    0200 ET	German Apr trade balance expected 12.3 bln euros, Mar 17.4 bln euros. Apr exports expected -0.6% m/m, Mar +0.9% m/m. Apr imports, Mar +1.2% y/y. German Apr current account, Mar 19.8 bln surplus.
    0200 ET	German Q1 labor costs (sa), last +1.1% q/q and +3.3% y/y.
    United Kingdom
    0430 ET	UK May PPI input prices (sa), Apr -1.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y. May output prices (nsa) expected unchanged m/m and +3.2% y/y, Apr +0.7% m/m and +3.3% y/y. May core output prices (nsa), Apr +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
    CHI
    2130 ET	China May CPI expected +3.2% y/y, Apr +3.4% y/y. China May PPI expected -1.1% y/y, Apr -0.7% y/y.

    Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart Morning Call 3/12

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 2 hrs 18 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mostly lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.09% and Jun S&Ps down -1.00 point. The dollar index fell back from a 1-1/2 month high and commodities were mixed as Euro-Zone finance ministers meet in Brussels to sign off on a 130 billion-euro second bailout package for Greece after bondholders agreed to take a haircut on their holdings of Greek debt. The euro slid to a 3-week low against the dollar on concern that other indebted European countries may take the same path as Greece and force bondholders to take losses on their sovereign-debt holdings. The main bearish factor for stock prices was the weaker-than-expected Feb China exports, which raises concern that growth in the world's second-largest economy may be slowing. On the positive side, Peugeot, Europe's second-largest carmaker, rose 2.8% and Fiat climbed 2.2% after Milano Finanza reported that Fiat favors an alliance with Peugeot to make commercial vehicles.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.40%, China -0.37%, Australia -0.36%, South Korea -0.71%, India +0.48%. Asian stocks weakened after Feb China exports grew at a slower-than-estimated pace, which overshadowed a rebound in Jan Japan machinery orders and better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Feb China exports rose +18.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +31.1% y/y as China posted a trade deficit in Feb of -$31.48 billion, larger than expectations of -$5.35 billion and the widest in 22 years. Chinese rail and train builders also closed lower after a 1,000 foot section of an unopened high-speed railway collapsed in central China's Hubei province following heavy rains. Japanese stocks finished lower despite a larger-than-expected increase in Jan Japan machine orders which rose +3.4% m/m and +5.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading down -1.00 point. The U.S. stock market Friday settled higher for a third day after Feb U.S. payrolls increased more than forecast along with reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after Greece received bailout funds from the EU to avoid default: Dow Jones +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Nasdaq Composite +0.60%. The S&P 500 posted a 1-week high and the Nasdaq rose to an 11-year high. Bullish factors Friday included (1) strength in the U.S. labor market after the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. non-farm payrolls along with the upward revision to Jan (Feb +227,000 versus expectations of +210,000, and Jan revised up to +284,000 from the originally reported +243,000), (2) reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after EU finance ministers freed 35.5 billion euros of aid for Greece and backed the country's debt swap with private creditors, (3) strength in homebuilding stocks after Credit Suisse upgraded the sector to a buy, and (4) speculation China may have more room for additional stimulus measures after Feb China CPI rose +3.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.4% y/y and its smallest increase in 20 months.
• Bearish factors Friday included (1) the Jan U.S. trade balance of -$52.6 billion, wider than expectations of -$49.0 billion and the most in 3-1/4 years, which is negative for Q1 U.S. GDP and (2) slack wage growth that may curtail consumer spending after Feb U.S. average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
• Oracle (ORCL) fell 1.5% in pre-market trading after Jeffries Group cut its recommendation on the stock to "hold" from "buy."

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +6 ticks. T-note prices Friday settled lower for a third day after Feb U.S. payrolls rose more than expected along with reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as Greece received bailout funds needed to avoid default: TYM2 -6.0, FVM2 -4.0, EDU2 -2.0. Bearish factors Friday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. non-farm payrolls along with the upward revision to Jan (Feb +227,000 versus expectations of +210,000, while Jan was revised up to an increase of +284,000 from the originally reported +243,000), (2) decreased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Greece received 35.5 billion euros of bailout funds from EU finance ministers after it successfully completed its debt swap plan, which slashes the prospects of a Greek default, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $32 billion auction of 3-year T-notes on Monday. Bullish factors included (1) the Jan U.S. trade balance of -$52.6 billion, wider than expectations of -$49.0 billion and the most in 3-1/4 years, which is negative for Q1 U.S. GDP and (2) a lack of wage pressures after Feb U.S. average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
• The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.24 yen and the euro/dollar -0.15 cents. The dollar index Friday shook off early weakness and rallied up to a 3-week high and settled higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth diminished the outlook for additional Fed easing along with weakness in the yen which plunged to a 10-1/2 month low against the dollar: Dollar Index +0.902, USD/JPY +0.894, EUR/USD -0.01513. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. non-farm payrolls, which reduces the chance the Fed will implement additional dollar negative stimulus measures, and (2) weakness in the yen on speculation the BOJ may need to boost its yen-negative stimulus measures to shore up the Japanese economy. Bearish factors included (1) the wider-than-expected Jan U.S. trade balance of -$52.6 billion, the most in 3-1/4 years, (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after EU finance ministers freed 35.5 billion euros of aid for Greece when it reached its target for its debt swap, and (3) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan German exports, which is EUR/USD positive.
• Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.05 a barrel and Apr gasoline is -1.93 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday settled higher for a third day after Greece met its target for its debt swap, which reduces default concerns, along with the stronger-than-expected gain in Feb U.S. non-farm payrolls, a sign of economic strength: CLJ12 +$0.82, RBJ +1.84. Apr gasoline rose to a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) reduced chances of Greek default after EU finance ministers freed 35.5 billion euros of aid for Greece after it reached its target for its debt swap, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. non-farm payrolls, which bolsters confidence in the U.S. economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) strong fuel demand in China after Chinese crude processing rose to 9.38 million barrels a day in Jan and was 9.32 million barrels a day in Feb, both above the previous record in Dec of 9.28 million barrels a day. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high, which dampens investment demand for most commodities and (2) the action by OPEC to cut its 2012 global oil demand forecast by -130,000 barrels a day to 88.63 million barrels saying "risks remain on the downside as the economic outlook for the remainder of the year is still uncertain and retail oil prices are in the upper band."

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): URBN-Urban Outfitters (BEST earnings consensus $0.29), AL-Air Lease (0.24), PNY-Piedmont Natural Gas (1.19), CLNE-Clean Energy Fuels (-0.17), CHDN-Churchill Downs (-0.01), SNHY-Sun Hydraulics (0.30), RDEA-Ardea Biosciences (-0.90), AWR-American States Water (0.37), KW-Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (0.13), IRET-Investors Real Estate Trust (0.01), REN-Resolute Energy (0.11).
Global Financial Calendar

Monday 3/12/12
United States
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion 3-year T-notes.
1400 ET	Feb monthly budget statement expected -$229.4 billion, Jan -$27.412 billion.
Japan
0100 ET	Feb Japan consumer confidence expected +0.5 to 40.5, Jan +1.1 to 40.0.
1950 ET	Jan Japan tertiary industry index expected +0.2% m/m, Dec +1.4% m/m.
Germany
0300 ET	Feb German wholesale price index expected +1.0% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Jan +1.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
Euro-Zone
1200 ET	Euro-Zone finance ministers meet in Brussels.
United Kingdom
2001 ET	Feb U.K. RICS house price balance expected -14%, Jan -16%.

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