MORNING CALL 3/10

MORNING CALL

Thursday, March 10th, 2016View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.44%) are up +0.29% and European stocks are up +0.14% as the markets await the ECB's decision today on possible additional stimulus measures. The markets are expecting at least an interest rate cut by the ECB today and or an expansion of its quantitative easing. Weakness in crude oil and metals undercut energy and raw-material producing stocks, while an unexpected decline in German Jan exports pressured European stocks. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.26%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -2.02%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore -0.05%, South Korea +0.96%, India -0.69%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down over 2% after Chinese consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 19 months, which may limit further stimulus measures by the government.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is down -0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.15%) are up +7 ticks.

The German Jan trade balance shrank to a surplus of 13.6 billion euros, less than expectations of +17.0 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 17 months. Jan exports unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than of +0.8% m/m. Jan imports rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.

China Feb CPI rose +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 19 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -3,000 to 275,000, previous +6,000 to 278,000) and continuing claims (expected -7,000 to 2.250 million, previous +3,000 to 2.257 million), (2) the Treasury's auction of $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds, and (3) Feb monthly budget statement (expected -$196.3 billion, Jan +$55.163 billion).

There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Dollar General (consensus $1.26), Care Capital Properties (0.79), Four Corners Property Trust (0.45), VeriFone Systems (0.46), Ulta Salon (1.54).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Biolight Life Sciences (BOLT).

Equity conferences this week include: UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inc Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Expedia (EXPE +0.79%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month price target of $140.

Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH +0.03%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month price target of $31.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS +0.46%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Bernstein.

Ryerson Holding (RYI +0.22%) reported Q4 sales of $668.8 million, below consensus of $711.4 million.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +1.13%) lost nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that CFO Mary Boland plans to retire April 1 and Chief Accounting Officer Scott Hurd will be interim CFO.

B&G Foods (BGS -0.54%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 4 million shares of its common stock.

Square (SQ +4.79%) rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $374.4 million, higher than consensus of $344.7 million.

Box Inc. (BOX +3.73%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 revenue of $88 million-$89 million, above consensus of $86.4 million, and then said it sees a fiscal 2017 adjusted loss of -83 cents to -85 cents, narrower than consensus of a loss of -90 cents.

Gulfport Energy (GPOR +4.01%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 14 million shares of its common stock.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI -1.18%) gained nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 loss of -6 cents a share, a smaller loss than consensus of -18 cents.

Nasdaq (NDAQ +0.77%) agreed to buy International Securities Exchange from Deutsche Borse for $1.1 billion.

Sunrun (RUN -0.45%) climbed 3% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $15.

Omega Protein (OME +6.46%) slumped over 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 29 cents, well below consensus of 53 cents.

Energy XXI Ltd. (EXXI +12.50%) plunged over 30% in after-hours trading when it said it may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as next week.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.44%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.29%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.51%, Dow Jones +0.21%, Nasdaq +0.65%. The S&P on Wednesday closed higher on strength in energy producers with the rally in crude oil and on expectations that the ECB on Thursday will expand stimulus measures in an attempt to bolster economic growth. Stocks were undercut by news that the Jan wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio rose to a 6-3/4 year high of 1.35 months, which is a sign of tepid demand that is causing an unwanted buildup of inventories.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 +0.15%) this morning are up +7 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYM6 -14.00, FVM6 -51.75. Jun T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes and on carryover weakness from a slide in German bund prices to a 2-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.198 (+0.20%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0023 (-0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.30 (+0.26%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.036 (-0.04%), EUR/USD -0.0012 (-0.11%), USD/JPY +0.73 (+0.65%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on strength in the Canadian dollar (which climbed to a 3-3/4 month high against the dollar) and in the Russian ruble (which rose to a 2-1/2 month high against the dollar) as a rally in crude oil supported the currencies of crude-exporting countries. In addition, EUR/USD showed strength on short-covering ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting.

Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 -0.08%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.29%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.01%) is down -0.0077 (-0.52%). Wednesday's closes: CLJ6 +1.79 (+4.90%), RBJ6 +0.0827 (+5.96%). Apr crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Apr gasoline at a 4-month nearest-futures high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by the -4.53 million bbl drop in weekly EIA gasoline supplies (vs. expectations of-1.5million bbl). Crude oil prices were undercut by the rise in EIA crude stockpiles by +3.88 million bbl to a record high 521.8 million bbl and by the rise in oil inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, by +690,000 bbl to a record 66.9 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/10/2016

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -3,000 to 275,000, previous +6,000 to 278,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-7,000 to 2.250 million, previous +3,000 to 2.257 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Mar 17 (previous $15 billion).
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $12 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1400 ET	Feb monthly budget statement expected -$196.3 billion, Jan +$55.163 billion.
GER	0200 ET	German Jan trade balance expected +17.0 billion euros, Dec +19.0 billion euros. Jan exports expected +0.8% m/m, Dec -1.4% m/m. Jan imports expected +0.8% m/m, Dec -1.6% m/m.
	0200 ET	German Jan current account balance, Dec +25.6 billion euros.
	0200 ET	German Q4 labor costs, Q3 unch q/q and +2.4% y/y.
EUR	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision expected -10 bp cut in deposit facility rate to -0.4% from -0.3%.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Q1 BSI all-industry business conditions, Q4 4.6.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/10/2016

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Dollar General Corp	DG US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.261
Care Capital Properties Inc	CCP US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.787
Four Corners Property Trust Inc	FCPT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.445
Armstrong World Industries Inc	AWI US	8:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2016
Western Union Co/The	WU US	8:30	Investor Day	Y 2016
Genpact Ltd	G US	9:00	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2016
Dollar General Corp	DG US	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Care Capital Properties Inc	CCP US	10:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT US	13:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
American Express Co	AXP US	13:30	Investor Day	Y 2016
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	14:00	Investor and Analyst Meeting	Y 2016
F5 Networks Inc	FFIV US	14:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2016
Four Corners Property Trust Inc	FCPT US	14:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	16:01	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.461
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	17:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 2016
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc	ULTA US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.535
Cabot Corp	CBT US		Annual General Meeting
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - Boston	Y 2016
National Fuel Gas Co	NFG US		Annual General Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Investor Meeting - Day 2	Y 2016

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/6

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, July 6th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.63%) are down -0.62% at a 3-month low and European stocks are down -1.73% at a 4-3/4 month low after Greek voters voted 'No' to austerity measures. The ECB will meet today to discuss its next move and German Chancellor Merkel will meet with French President Hollande today before Eurozone leaders meet on Tuesday. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after Greek Finance Minister Vaoufakis resigned, which boosted speculation a last-minute deal with Greece's creditors was possible. Another positive for European stocks was the upward revision to the Eurozone Jun Markit composite PMI which was revised higher to its best level since the data series began in 2012. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -2.08%, Hong Kong -3.18%, China +2.41%, Taiwan -1.09%, Australia -1.14%, Singapore -0.29%, South Korea -2.50%, India +0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite closed higher after the government over the weekend suspended initial public offerings and the PBOC said it would provide liquidity for margin trading.
Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -2.32%) is down -4.67% at a 2-1/2 month low, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.57%) is down -3.31%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.30%) is up +0.07%. Sep copper (HGU15 -3.04%) is down -3.93% at a 5-month low. Agricultural prices are weaker as a stronger dollar and drier weather pressured grain prices.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.38%) is up +0.35% at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.71% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.26%) are up ticks at a 5-week high as global government bonds rally after the Sunday's Greek 'No' vote to austerity increases the chances that Greece will be forced to exit the Eurozone.
In an attempt to stop the recent plunge in Chinese stocks, China's State Council suspended initial public offerings and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said 21 brokerages pledged not to reduce any proprietary investments in the equity market as long as the Shanghai Composite Index stays below 4,500. The PBOC also said it will offer China Securities Finance Corp., which manages China's short selling and margin trading, liquidity support, according to a statement on the CSRC website on Sunday.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) final-Jun Markit U.S. services PMI (expected +0.1 to 54.9 after prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.8), (2) Jun ISM non-manufacturing index (expected +0.7 to 56.4 after May's -2.1 to 55.7), and (3) Jun Labor Market Conditions Index (expected 2.0 vs May's 1.3).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: NephroGenex (NRX).
Equity conferences this week: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Celanese (CE +2.39%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG +0.09%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Guess (GES -0.88%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Aegerion (AEGR -1.27%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
VMware (VMW +0.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at FBR Capital.
Bank of America (BAC -1.10%) and Citigroup (C -0.56%) both fell over 1% in pre-market trading as financial stocks fell across the globe following the results of the Greek referendum.
Humana (HUM -2.92%) jumped over 8% in pre-market trading after Aetna agreed to buy the health insurer for about $35 billion,
The Financial Times reported that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS +0.89%) could potentially face a judgment of nearly $13 billion in a case related to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Pershing Square reported a 13.2% stake in Howard Hughes (HHC -0.81%) .
Man Group reported a 5.31% stake in Perfect World (PWRD -0.25%) .
Point72 Asset Management reported a 5.1% passive stake in SPX Corp. (SPW -0.65%) .
Frigate Ventures reported a 6.8% passive stake in Novogen (NVGN unch) .

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.63%) this morning are down -12.75 points (-0.62%0 at a 3-month low. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq +0.09%. The S&P 500 on Thursday settled slightly lower on (1) the slightly weaker-than-expected +223,000 increase in U.S. Jun payrolls and the downward revision in May payrolls to +254,000 from +280,000, and (2) the -1.0% drop in U.S. May factory orders, weaker than expectations of -0.5%. On the supportive side for stocks, the U.S. Jun unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a 7-year low of 5.3%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 5.4%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.26%) this morning are up +24.5 ticks at a 5-week high. Thursday's closes: TYU5 +13.00, FVU5 +10.00. Sep T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected +223,000 increase in U.S. Jun payrolls and Jun average hourly earnings, which may push back the timing of a Fed interest rate increase.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.38%) this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0079 (-0.71%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.09%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.197 (-0.20%), EUR/USD +0.00312 (+0.28%), USD/JPY -0.116 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Thursday settled lower on (1) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jun payroll and average hourly earnings reports, which may push back a Fed interest rate increase, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on short covering ahead of the July 5 Greek referendum.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -2.32%) this morning is down sharply by -$2.66 (-4.67%) at a 2-1/2 month low. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.57%) is down -0.0673 (-3.31%). Thursday's closes: CLQ5 -0.03 (-0.05%), RBQ5 +0.0275 (+1.37%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Thursday settled mixed. Crude oil received support from a weaker dollar and the close-to-expected increase in U.S. Jun payroll report, which signals moderate economic growth that is beneficial for energy demand. Crude oil prices were undercut by the afternoon report from Baker Hughes that U.S. active oil rigs rose by +12 rigs to 640 rigs, the first increase in nearly 7 months.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/06/2015

US	0945 ET	Final-Jun Markit U.S. services PMI expected +0.1 to 54.9, prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.8. Final-Jun Markit U.S. Composite PMI, prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.6.
	1000 ET	Jun ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 56.4, May -2.1 to 55.7.
	1000 ET	Jun Labor Market Conditions Index expected 2.0, May 1.3.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
	1600 ET	USDA weekly crop progress.
JPN	0100 ET	Japan May leading index CI expected -0.1 to 106.3, Apr 106.4. May coincident index expected -1.7 to 109.3, Apr 111.0.
GER	0200 ET	German May factory orders expected unch m/m and +4.4% y/y, Apr +1.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y.
	0330 ET	German Jun Markit construction PMI, May 50.8.
UK	0400 ET	UK Jun new car registrations, May +2.4% y/y.
EUR	0430 ET	Eurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence expected -1.6 to 15.5, Jun 17.1.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/06/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Aetna	AET US	8:30	Acquisition of Humana Inc by Aetna Inc Call
Humana	HUM US	8:30	Acquisition of Humana Inc by Aetna Inc Call
A Schulman Inc	SHLM US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	0.77

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/16

BARCHART MORNING CALL 

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.67%) this morning are down -0.18% and European stocks are down -0.35% at a 1-3/4 month low on Chinese economic concerns after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 7 months. Losses were limited after Eurozone Dec manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months and after a gauge of German investor expectations climbed at the fastest pace in 8 months. The Russian ruble plunged to a record low of 73.8238 per dollar even after the Bank of Russia unexpectedly raised its key interest rate to 17.0% from 10.5% as the plunge in oil prices exacerbates the collapse in the ruble. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -2.01%, Hong Kong -1.55%, China +2.68%, Taiwan -0.39%, Australia -0.65%, Singapore -2.40%, South Korea -0.75%, India -1.97%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 1-month low after exporters sold-off as the yen rallied to a 4-week high against the dollar, which reduces the earnings prospects of exporters. Chinese stocks bucked the trend and closed higher on speculation economic weakness will prompt the government into expanding stimulus. Commodity prices are weaker. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -2.99%) is down -3.02% at a 5-1/2 year low as the rout in crude prices continues. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.91%) is down -3.10% % at a 5-1/2 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.60%) is down -0.16%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.47%) is down -0.56%. Agriculture prices are mostly lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.73%) is down -0.77% at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.90% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -1.80% at a 4-week low. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.64%) are up +20.5 ticks at a 2-month high as the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low undercuts inflation expectations along with carry-over support from a rally in German bunds as the 10-year bund yield sank to a record low of 0.566%.
The China Dec HSBC manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to 49.5, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.2 to 49.8 and the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.
The German Dec ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +23.4 to 34.9, a much larger increase than expectations of +8.5 to 20.0 and the highest in 8 months. The Dec ZEW survey current situation climbed +6.7 to 10.0, a larger increase than expectation sf +1.7 to 5.0
The Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI rose +0.7 to 50.8, more than expectations of +0.4 to 50.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months. The Eurozone Dec composite PMI rose +0.6 to 51.7, a larger increase than expectations of +0.4 to 51.5.
Bundesbank President Weidmann said there's no need for the ECB to expand monetary stimulus into sovereign-bond buying even if slumping oil prices cause deflation, saying "such a development initially requires no monetary response, as long as no second round effects are to be seen."
UK Nov CPI unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and matched July's decline as the biggest monthly fall in 10 months. On an annual basis, Nov CPI rose +1.0% y/y, less than expectations of +1.2% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 12-1/3 years. Nov core CPI rose +1.2%, less than expectations of +1.5% y/y and the smallest increase in 5-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today.  The market is expecting today’s Nov housing starts report to show an increase of +3.1% to 1.040 million units, more than reversing October’s -2.8% m/m decline to 1.009 million units.  There are 3 the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Navistar (consensus $0.0), FactSet (1.32), Darden Restaurants (0.27).  Equity conferences this week include: Macquarie Mobile Corporate Day on Tue, and Sanford C. Bernstein Technology Innovation Summit on Tue-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Microsoft (MSFT -0.60%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Hess Corp. (HES -1.62%) and EOG Resources (EOG -1.19%) were both downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
According to The New York Times, thw Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS -2.75%) and Lloyds (LYG -1.28%) failed a stress test performed by the Bank of England.
Dollar Tree (DLTR +0.68%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Macerich (MAC -0.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Autodesk (ADSK -1.14%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Bloomberg reported that Olam (OLMIY -1.98%) will acquire Archer Daniel's (ADM -0.04%) cocoa business for $1.3 billion.
Boeing (BA +1.08%) climbed 2.7% in pre-market trading after it raised its dividend 25% and authorized a $12 billion share repurchase plan.
Goldman Sachs (GS -1.74%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Guggenheim with a price target of $215.
Bank of America (BAC -1.63%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Guggenheim with a price target of $20.
VeriFone (PAY +0.15%) reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, higher than consensus of 41 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.67%) this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.18%). The S&P 500 index on Monday slipped to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.63%, Dow Jones -0.58%, Nasdaq -1.00%. Bearish factors included (1) weakness in energy producers after crude oil slumped to a 5-1/2 year low, and (2) the unexpected -13.24 point drop in the Dec Empire manufacturing index to -3.58, weaker than expectations of +2.24 to 12.40 and the slowest pace of expansion in 23 months. A positive for stocks was the strong +1.3% increase in U.S. Nov industrial production, the largest increase in 4-1/2 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.64%) this morning are up +20.5 ticks at a fresh 2-month high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday retreated from a 2-month high and closed lower: TYH5 -9.50, FVH5 -8.00. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov industrial production, and (2) long liquidation pressures ahead of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Supportive factors included (1) the plunge in crude oil to a 5-1/2 year low, which prompted the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to tumble to a 4-1/4 year low, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 fell to a 1-1/2 month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.73%) this morning is down -0.679 (-0.77%) at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0112 (+0.90%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -2.12 (-1.80%) at a 4-week low. The dollar index on Monday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.097 (+0.11%), EUR/USD -0.00251 (-0.10%), USD/JPY -0.923 (-0.78%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in emerging market currencies as the Brazilian real fell to a 9-3/4 year low and the Russian ruble plunged to a record low against the dollar, and (2) speculation the FOMC will prepare the markets for an interest rate hike with a hawkish post-FOMC meeting statement on Wednesday.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -2.99%) this morning is down -$1.69 a barrel (-3.02%) at a new 5-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -2.91%) is down -0.0488 (-3.10%) at a 5-1/2 year low. Jan crude and Jan gasoline prices Monday slumped to 5-1/2 year lows and closed lower. Closes: CLF5 -1.90 (-3.29%), RBF5 -0.0209 (-1.31%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) comments from UAE Energy Minister Al-Mazrouei that OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut oil output even if crude prices fall as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/16/2014

US	0830 ET	Nov housing starts expected +3.1% to 1.040 million, Oct -2.8% m/m to 1.009 million. Nov building permits expected -2.5% to 1.065 million, Oct +5.9% to 1.092 million.
	0945 ET	Preliminary Dec U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.7 to 55.5, Nov -1.1 to 54.8.
	1030 ET	FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Nov new car registrations, Oct +6.5% y/y.
	0400 ET	Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 50.5, Nov 50.1. Dec composite PMI expected +0.4 to 51.5, Nov 51.1.
GER	0330 ET	German Dec Markit/BME manufacturing PMI expected +0.8 to 50.3, Nov 49.5. Dec Market services PMI expected +0.4 to 52.5, Nov 52.1.
	0500 ET	German Dec ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected +8.5 to 20.0, Nov 11.5. Dec ZEW current situation expected +1.7 to 5.0, Nov 3.3.
UK	0430 ET	UK Nov CPI expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. Nov core CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Oct +1.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov RPI expected unch m/m and +2.2% y/y, Oct unch m/m and +2.3% y/y. Nov RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +2.3% y/y, Oct +2.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI input prices expected -1.5% m/m and -9.2% y/y, Oct -1.5% m/m and -8.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Nov PPI output prices expected -0.3% m/m and -0.6% y/y, Oct -0.3% m/m and -0.5% y/y. Nov PPI output core expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Oct ONS house prices expected +11.4% y/y, Sep +12.1% y/y.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Nov trade balance expected -992.0 billion yen, Oct -736.9 billion yen. Nov exports expected +7.0% y/y, Oct +9.6% y/y. Nov imports expected +1.7% y/y, Oct +3.1% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/16/2014

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Navistar International Corp	NAV US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.003
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	7:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	1.319
CVS Health Corp	CVS US	8:00	Analyst Day	Y 2014
3M Co	MMM US	8:00	Q4 2015 Guidance Call	Q4 2015
Unum Group	UNM US	8:30	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Navistar International Corp	NAV US	9:00	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Liberty Property Trust	LPT US	10:00	Q4 2015 Guidance Call	Q4 2015
T-Mobile US Inc	TMUS US	10:30	Un-Carrier Event
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	11:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
AECOM Technology Corp	ACM US	11:00	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
Amdocs Ltd	DOX US	11:30	Analyst & Investor Day	Y 2014
Colfax Corp	CFX US	13:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
General Electric Co	GE US	15:00	Investor Meeting	Y 2014
FactSet Research Systems Inc	FDS US	15:00	Annual General Meeting
Dow Chemical Co/The	DOW US	17:00	ITC Announce's Judge's Findings on Organik vs. Dow Chemical Trade Secret Case
Darden Restaurants Inc	DRI US	17:00	Q2 2015 Earnings Call	Q2 2015
Darden Restaurants Inc	DRI US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2015 Earnings Release	Q2 2015	0.273
Ameren Corp	AEE US		Investor Meeting	Y 2014
Hudson City Bancorp Inc	HCBK US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/27

BARCHART MORNING CALL Thursday, March 27th, 2014View Older Reports Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter. E-mail: You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters. OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.24% and European stocks are up +0.03% as Ukraine reached a preliminary deal with the IMF for up to $27 billion of international support to avert default and limit economic damage from the 4-month long political crisis. Another boost to European stocks was the surge in UK Feb retail sales by more than three times expectations. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.01%, Hong Kong -0.24%, China -0.71%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia -0.50%, Singapore +0.61%, South Korea +0.85%, India +0.54%. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) is up +0.10%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.23%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.68%) is down -0.67% at a 1-1/2 month low on long liquidation fueled by expectations for the Fed to continue to taper QE3. May copper (HGK14 +0.93%) is up +0.96%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16% at a 3-week low on speculation the ECB at next week's policy meeting may push ahead with additional stimulus measures to weaken the euro. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.09%) are down -2 ticks. Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-mon avg, right on expectations. Eurozone Feb lending to companies and households contracted -2.2% y/y, the 22nd consecutive month lending has contracted. UK Feb retail sales ex autos rose +1.8% m/m, six times higher than expectations of +0.3% and the biggest increase in 9-months. On an annual basis retail sales ex autos rose +4.2% y/y, better than expectations of +2.9% y/y. UK Feb retail sales including autos rose +1.7% m/m, over three times expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 9-months. On an annual basis, retail sales including autos rose +3.7% y/y, better than expectations of +2.45 y/y. China Feb industrial profits rose +9.4% year-to-date y/y, the smallest increase in over a year. U.S. STOCK PREVIEW Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +4,000 to 324,000, adding to last week’s increase of +5,000 to 320,000.  Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -7,000 to 2.882 million, reversing part of last week’s +41,000 increase to 2.889 million.  Today’s Q4 GDP report is expected to be revised slightly higher by +0.3 points to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of +2.4%.  Today’s Feb pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.2% m/m, edging a bit higher after the small +0.1% increase seen in January.  There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Accenture (consensus $1.04), Leidos Holdings (0.45), Signet Jewelers (2.15), GameStop (1.93), Red Hat (0.37).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS Baxter International (BAX +2.47%) announced plans to create two separate, independent global healthcare companies; one focused on developing and marketing innovative biopharmaceuticals and the other on life-saving medical products. Signet Jewelers (SIG -1.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 2.18, higher than consensus of $2.15. lululemon (LULU +0.50%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.80-$1.90, weaker than consensus of $2.14. Leidos (LDOS +0.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 56 cents, well above consensus of 45 cents. Accenture PLC (ACN -0.66%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.03, less than expectations of $1.04, but then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $4.50-$4.62 from $4.44-$4.56, higher than consensus of $4.51. H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.78%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, less than consensus of 50 cents. Essex Property (ESS -2.44%) will replace Cliffs Natural (CLF -2.03%) in the S&P 500 as of the April 1 close. American Express (AXP -1.30%) said it will increase its quarterly dividend by 13% to 26 cents per share and that it will repurchase up to $4.4 billion of common shares during 2014 and up to an additional $1 billion in the first quarter of 2015. Morgan Stanley (MS -1.17%) said it will double its dividend to 10 cents from 5 cents and also announced a $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The Fed said that after its stress tests for this year it rejected the capital plans of Citigroup (C -0.28%) , HSBC North America Holdings (HSBC -0.43%) , RBS Citizens Financial Group (RBS -2.15%) , and Santander Holdings (SAN +0.99%) . The Fed also said it objected to the capital plan of Zions Bancorporation (ZION -1.31%) because the firm did not meet the minimum, post-stress tier-1 common ratio of 5 percent. Paychex (PAYX -1.30%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 42 cents. MARKET COMMENTS June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.24%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday erased an early rally and closed lower after President Obama said Russia’s actions in Crimea must be met with condemnation, which raised concerns of escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Stocks had opened higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +2.2% increase in Feb durable goods orders, better than expectations of +0.8%, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the U.S. is in “good shape” to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: S&P 500 -0.70%, Dow Jones -0.60%, Nasdaq -1.29%. Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.09%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. T-notes moved higher on weaker stocks along with strong demand for the Treasury’s $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.99, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.63 and the highest in 1-1/2 years. Closes: TYM4 +10.50, FVM4 +7.25. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.093 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18 (+0.18%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. The dollar rose on supportive factors that included (1 the stronger than expected increase in U.S. Feb durable goods orders, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who said that the U.S. is in “good shape” to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: Dollar index +0.088 (+0.11%), EUR/USD -0.0045 (-0.33%), USD/JPY -0.222 (-0.22%). May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) this morning is up +10 cents (+0.10%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.0067 (+0.23%). May crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with May crude at a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -1.3 million bbl drop in crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 2-yr low of 28.5 million bbl, and (2) the -5.101 million bbl plunge in EIA gasoline inventories to a 3-1/2 month low of 217.2 million bbl. Bearish factors centered on the +6.619 bbl surge in weekly EIA crude supplies to a 3-1/2 month high of 382 million bbl, the tenth consecutive increase and more than double expectations of a +2.85 million bbl increase. Closes: CLK4 +1.07 (+1.08%). RBK4 +0.0246 (+0.85%). GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/27/2014 US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 324,000, previous +5,000 to 320,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -7,000 to 2.882 million, previous +41,000 to 2.889 million. 0830 ET Q4 GDP expected revised higher to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from +2.4%. Q4 personal consumption expected revised higher to +2.8% from +2.6%. Q4 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.6%. Q4 GDP PCE expected unrevised at +1.3%. 0830 ET Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the University of Dayton. 0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales. 1000 ET Feb pending home sales expected +0.2% m/m and -9.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and -9.1% y/y. 1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes. 2130 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers a speech at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Feb M3 money supply expected +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg, Jan +1.2% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg. UK 0530 ET UK Feb retail sales ex autos expected +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.8% y/y. 0530 ET UK Feb retail sales including autos expected +0.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.3% y/y. 0530 ET UK Jan index of services, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.8% 3-mon/3-mon. 2005 ET UK Mar GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -6, Feb -7. JPN 1930 ET Japan Feb overall household spending expected +0.1% y/y, Jan +1.1% y/y. 1930 ET Japan Feb jobless rate expected unch at 3.7%, Jan 3.7%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.05, Jan 1.04. 1930 ET Japan Feb national CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Jan +1.4% y/y. Feb national CPI ex fresh food expected +1.3% y/y, Jan +1.3% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.7% y/y. 1930 ET Japan Mar Tokyo CPI expected +1.2% y/y, Feb +1.1% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.9% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.5% y/y, Feb +0.5% y/y. 1950 ET Japan Feb retail sales expected -0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Jan +1.6% m/m and +4.4% y/y. U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/27/2014 Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate Accenture PLC ACN US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.036 Leidos Holdings Inc LDOS US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.446 Signet Jewelers Ltd SIG US 6:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 2.148 Accenture PLC ACN US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014 Leidos Holdings Inc LDOS US 8:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/The NDAQ US 8:15 Investor Day Y 2014 Signet Jewelers Ltd SIG US 8:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 GameStop Corp GME US 8:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 1.929 Paychex Inc PAYX US 10:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014 GameStop Corp GME US 11:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 Microsoft Corp MSFT US 13:00 Microsoft Office For Apple's iPad-Debut Sempra Energy SRE US 13:00 Analyst Conference Y 2014 Edison International EIX US 17:00 SONGS OII Settlement Agreement Call Red Hat Inc RHT US 17:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 Red Hat Inc RHT US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.374 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US PDUFA, Kalydeco, cystic fibrosis (CF) w/ non-G551D CFTR gating mutations