BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/27

BARCHART MORNING CALL Thursday, March 27th, 2014View Older Reports Everything you need to know about the markets in one free daily newsletter. E-mail: You will also receive a free subscription to the Barchart family of newsletters. OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +0.24% and European stocks are up +0.03% as Ukraine reached a preliminary deal with the IMF for up to $27 billion of international support to avert default and limit economic damage from the 4-month long political crisis. Another boost to European stocks was the surge in UK Feb retail sales by more than three times expectations. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.01%, Hong Kong -0.24%, China -0.71%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia -0.50%, Singapore +0.61%, South Korea +0.85%, India +0.54%. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) is up +0.10%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.23%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.68%) is down -0.67% at a 1-1/2 month low on long liquidation fueled by expectations for the Fed to continue to taper QE3. May copper (HGK14 +0.93%) is up +0.96%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16% at a 3-week low on speculation the ECB at next week's policy meeting may push ahead with additional stimulus measures to weaken the euro. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.09%) are down -2 ticks. Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-mon avg, right on expectations. Eurozone Feb lending to companies and households contracted -2.2% y/y, the 22nd consecutive month lending has contracted. UK Feb retail sales ex autos rose +1.8% m/m, six times higher than expectations of +0.3% and the biggest increase in 9-months. On an annual basis retail sales ex autos rose +4.2% y/y, better than expectations of +2.9% y/y. UK Feb retail sales including autos rose +1.7% m/m, over three times expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 9-months. On an annual basis, retail sales including autos rose +3.7% y/y, better than expectations of +2.45 y/y. China Feb industrial profits rose +9.4% year-to-date y/y, the smallest increase in over a year. U.S. STOCK PREVIEW Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +4,000 to 324,000, adding to last week’s increase of +5,000 to 320,000.  Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -7,000 to 2.882 million, reversing part of last week’s +41,000 increase to 2.889 million.  Today’s Q4 GDP report is expected to be revised slightly higher by +0.3 points to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from the last estimate of +2.4%.  Today’s Feb pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.2% m/m, edging a bit higher after the small +0.1% increase seen in January.  There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Accenture (consensus $1.04), Leidos Holdings (0.45), Signet Jewelers (2.15), GameStop (1.93), Red Hat (0.37).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS Baxter International (BAX +2.47%) announced plans to create two separate, independent global healthcare companies; one focused on developing and marketing innovative biopharmaceuticals and the other on life-saving medical products. Signet Jewelers (SIG -1.17%) reported Q4 EPS of 2.18, higher than consensus of $2.15. lululemon (LULU +0.50%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.80-$1.90, weaker than consensus of $2.14. Leidos (LDOS +0.37%) reported Q4 EPS of 56 cents, well above consensus of 45 cents. Accenture PLC (ACN -0.66%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.03, less than expectations of $1.04, but then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $4.50-$4.62 from $4.44-$4.56, higher than consensus of $4.51. H.B. Fuller (FUL -0.78%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 49 cents, less than consensus of 50 cents. Essex Property (ESS -2.44%) will replace Cliffs Natural (CLF -2.03%) in the S&P 500 as of the April 1 close. American Express (AXP -1.30%) said it will increase its quarterly dividend by 13% to 26 cents per share and that it will repurchase up to $4.4 billion of common shares during 2014 and up to an additional $1 billion in the first quarter of 2015. Morgan Stanley (MS -1.17%) said it will double its dividend to 10 cents from 5 cents and also announced a $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The Fed said that after its stress tests for this year it rejected the capital plans of Citigroup (C -0.28%) , HSBC North America Holdings (HSBC -0.43%) , RBS Citizens Financial Group (RBS -2.15%) , and Santander Holdings (SAN +0.99%) . The Fed also said it objected to the capital plan of Zions Bancorporation (ZION -1.31%) because the firm did not meet the minimum, post-stress tier-1 common ratio of 5 percent. Paychex (PAYX -1.30%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 42 cents. MARKET COMMENTS June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.22%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.24%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday erased an early rally and closed lower after President Obama said Russia’s actions in Crimea must be met with condemnation, which raised concerns of escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Stocks had opened higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +2.2% increase in Feb durable goods orders, better than expectations of +0.8%, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the U.S. is in “good shape” to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: S&P 500 -0.70%, Dow Jones -0.60%, Nasdaq -1.29%. Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.09%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. T-notes moved higher on weaker stocks along with strong demand for the Treasury’s $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.99, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.63 and the highest in 1-1/2 years. Closes: TYM4 +10.50, FVM4 +7.25. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.093 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18 (+0.18%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. The dollar rose on supportive factors that included (1 the stronger than expected increase in U.S. Feb durable goods orders, and (2) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who said that the U.S. is in “good shape” to have economic growth of more than +3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Closes: Dollar index +0.088 (+0.11%), EUR/USD -0.0045 (-0.33%), USD/JPY -0.222 (-0.22%). May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.63%) this morning is up +10 cents (+0.10%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.50%) is up +0.0067 (+0.23%). May crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with May crude at a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the -1.3 million bbl drop in crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a 2-yr low of 28.5 million bbl, and (2) the -5.101 million bbl plunge in EIA gasoline inventories to a 3-1/2 month low of 217.2 million bbl. Bearish factors centered on the +6.619 bbl surge in weekly EIA crude supplies to a 3-1/2 month high of 382 million bbl, the tenth consecutive increase and more than double expectations of a +2.85 million bbl increase. Closes: CLK4 +1.07 (+1.08%). RBK4 +0.0246 (+0.85%). GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/27/2014 US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 324,000, previous +5,000 to 320,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -7,000 to 2.882 million, previous +41,000 to 2.889 million. 0830 ET Q4 GDP expected revised higher to +2.7% (q/q annualized) from +2.4%. Q4 personal consumption expected revised higher to +2.8% from +2.6%. Q4 GDP price index expected unrevised at +1.6%. Q4 GDP PCE expected unrevised at +1.3%. 0830 ET Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the University of Dayton. 0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales. 1000 ET Feb pending home sales expected +0.2% m/m and -9.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and -9.1% y/y. 1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes. 2130 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans delivers a speech at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Feb M3 money supply expected +1.3% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg, Jan +1.2% y/y and +1.2% 3-month avg. UK 0530 ET UK Feb retail sales ex autos expected +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.8% y/y. 0530 ET UK Feb retail sales including autos expected +0.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jan -1.5% m/m and +4.3% y/y. 0530 ET UK Jan index of services, Dec +0.2% m/m and +0.8% 3-mon/3-mon. 2005 ET UK Mar GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to -6, Feb -7. JPN 1930 ET Japan Feb overall household spending expected +0.1% y/y, Jan +1.1% y/y. 1930 ET Japan Feb jobless rate expected unch at 3.7%, Jan 3.7%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.05, Jan 1.04. 1930 ET Japan Feb national CPI expected +1.5% y/y, Jan +1.4% y/y. Feb national CPI ex fresh food expected +1.3% y/y, Jan +1.3% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.7% y/y. 1930 ET Japan Mar Tokyo CPI expected +1.2% y/y, Feb +1.1% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.9% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.5% y/y, Feb +0.5% y/y. 1950 ET Japan Feb retail sales expected -0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Jan +1.6% m/m and +4.4% y/y. U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/27/2014 Company Name Ticker Time Event Description Period Estimate Accenture PLC ACN US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 1.036 Leidos Holdings Inc LDOS US Bef-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.446 Signet Jewelers Ltd SIG US 6:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 2.148 Accenture PLC ACN US 8:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014 Leidos Holdings Inc LDOS US 8:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/The NDAQ US 8:15 Investor Day Y 2014 Signet Jewelers Ltd SIG US 8:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 GameStop Corp GME US 8:30 Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 1.929 Paychex Inc PAYX US 10:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014 GameStop Corp GME US 11:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 Microsoft Corp MSFT US 13:00 Microsoft Office For Apple's iPad-Debut Sempra Energy SRE US 13:00 Analyst Conference Y 2014 Edison International EIX US 17:00 SONGS OII Settlement Agreement Call Red Hat Inc RHT US 17:00 Q4 2014 Earnings Call Q4 2014 Red Hat Inc RHT US Aft-mkt Q4 2014 Earnings Release Q4 2014 0.374 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX US PDUFA, Kalydeco, cystic fibrosis (CF) w/ non-G551D CFTR gating mutations