Showing posts with label CCO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CCO. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

MORNING CALL 9/21

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.46%) are up +0.42% and European stocks are up +1.43% at a 1-week high on signs that global central banks will maintain their overly easy monetary policies in an attempt to spur economic growth and revive inflation. A rally in energy producing stocks is also giving equity markets a boost with crude oil (CLX16 +2.07%) up +2.09% after API data late Tuesday showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped -7.5 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.91%, Hong Kong +0.59%, China +0.10%, Taiwan +0.73%, Australia +0.68%, Singapore -0.14%, South Korea +0.56%, India -0.06%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied up to a 1-1/2 week high as banks and insurance companies led the overall market higher after the BOJ refrained from cutting interest rates further below zero and shifted the focus of its stimulus to controlling the yield curve.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.24% at a 3-week low.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ16 -0.02%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and said it will maintain its asset purchase target at 80 trillion yen a year, but announced a new package which shifts its emphasis from just managing the key interest rate and buying assets to controlling the yield curve. The BOJ said it will buy bonds in a way that ensures the 10-year government bond yield remains more or less where it is, around 0%, as part of its "yield curve management." The BOJ also said it would continue expanding its monetary base until inflation overshoots its 2% target and stays above it.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +4.2% with purchase sub-index +8.6% and refi sub-index +1.7%), (2) 2-day FOMC meeting concludes with policy announcement, updated economic projections, and a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen, and (3) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: General Mills (consensus $0.76), CarMax (0.88), Red Hat (0.54), Bed, Baty & Beyond (1.17), Jabil Circuit (0.25).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: elf Beauty Inc (ELF), Capstar Financial Holdings (CSTR).
Equity conferences this week include: Finance Montreal FinTech Forum on Tue-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Communicopia Conference on Tue-Thu, Finance Shared Services & GBS Exchange Conference on Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Microsoft (MSFT -0.21%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after it raised its quarterly dividend by 3 cents to 39 cents and authorized the byback of an additional $40 billion of stock on top of an existing $40 billion repurchase program.
Cooper Cos. (COO -1.09%) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Starwood Hotels & Resorts in the S&P 500 Index at the close of trading on Thursday, September 22.
SPS Commerce (SPSC +0.78%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Northwestern in the S&P SmallCap 600 at the close of trading on Thursday, September 22.
Adobe Systems (ADBE +0.94%) climbed nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 72 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $2.94-$3.00, higher than consensus of $2.87.
KB Home (KBH -2.42%) gained over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net orders were up +16% y/y, well above consensus of +2.8%.
FedEx (FDX +0.86%) rose almost 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.90, higher than consensus of $2.79.
The Children's Place (PLCE -1.02%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month target price of $88.
Clovis Oncology (CLVS +12.68%) rallied over 8% in after-hours trading after Janney said there are a "long list" of potential suitors for Clovis.
Airgain (AIRG +10.64%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 sales surged +63% y/y to $6.1 million.
CommScope Holding Co. (COMM -0.77%) slid 1% in after-hours trading after holder Carlyle said it sold 10 million common shares of CommScope.
Adamas Pharmaceuticals (ADMS +2.32%) jumped 5% in after-hours trading after the results of a Phase 3 trial of ADS-5102 for the treatment of Levodopa-induced Dyskinesia in patients with Parkinson's met its primary endpoint.
Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS -1.32%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it raised its Q3 revenue view to slightly above a prior forecast of $560 million-$580 million due to success of recent product introductions and "favorable" currency trends.
Mirna Therapeutics (MIRN -0.40%) plunged over 25% in after-hours trading after it said it was closing a Phase 1 study of its MRX34 in melanoma patients due to serious adverse events in patients taking the drug.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ16 +0.46%) this morning are up +9.00 points (+0.42%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.03%, Dow Jones +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.19%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed slightly higher as the market awaited Wednesday's outcome of the FOMC meeting, which is likely to produce hawkish language but not a rate hike. Energy producer stocks received a boost from the +0.43% rally in crude prices. Stocks were undercut by the weak Aug housing starts report of -5.8%, which implied less stimulus from the housing sector.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16 -0.02%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYZ6 +2.50, FVZ6 +0.50. Dec T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Aug housing starts and building permits reports and on expectations for the FOMC on Wednesday to refrain from a rate hike.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.02%) this morning is down -0.056 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0007 (-0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.24 (-0.24%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar index +0.178 (+0.19%), EUR/USD -0.0024 (-0.21%), USD/JPY -0.23 (-0.23%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that the Fed may be hawkish in its post-FOMC meeting statement as it may prepare the markets for a Dec rate hike. In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD after German Aug PPI weakened more than expected, which fueled speculation the ECB may expand stimulus.
Nov crude oil (CLX16 +2.07%) this morning is up +92 cents (+2.09%) and Nov gasoline (RBX16 +2.60%) is up +0.0356 (+2.69%). Tuesday's closes: CLX6 +0.19 (+0.43%), RBX6 -0.0280 (-2.07%). Nov crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed with Nov gasoline at a 2-week low. Crude oil prices was undercut by a stronger dollar and the slide in gasoline prices after Colonial said it will restart its damaged gasoline pipeline in Alabama one day earlier than scheduled, which should ease East Coast supply concerns. Crude oil was also undercut by expectations for Wednesday's EIA crude inventories to climb +3.25 million bbl. Crude oil recovered from a 1-1/4 month low and closed higher after Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Bouterfa said OPEC may turn the informal meeting in Algiers on Sep 28 into a formal meeting as it seeks ways among producers to cut crude supplies by 1.0 million bpd to rebalance and stabilize the oil market.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/21/2016
Wednesday, Sep 21
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.2% with purchase sub-index +8.6% and refi sub-index +1.7%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ETFOMC announces interest rate decision and provides a summary of economic projections. Fed Chair Yellen holds press conference.
Thursday, Sep 22
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +1,000 to 261,000, previous +1,000 to 260,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -2,000 to 2.141 million, previous +1,000 to 2.143 million.
0830 ETAug Chicago Fed national activity index expected -0.12 to 0.15, Jul +0.22 to 0.27.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETJul FHFA house price index expected +0.3% m/m, Jun +0.2% m/m.
1000 ETAug existing home sales expected +1.1% to 5.45 million, Jul -3.2% to 5.39 million.
1000 ETAug leading indicators expected unchanged m/m, Jul +0.4%.
1100 ETSep Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey expected +1 to -3, Aug +2 to -4.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $34 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $28 billion) to be auctioned Sep 26-28.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion of 10-year TIPS.
1300 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-voter) gives welcoming and introductory remarks at an Atlanta Fed conference on Unemployment, Wages and Productivity.
EUR0400 ETECB publishes economic bulletin.
1000 ETEurozone Sep consumer confidence expected +0.3 to -8.2, Aug -0.6 to -8.5.
UK0600 ETUK Sep CBI trends total orders expected unch at -5. Sep CBI trends selling prices expected +2 to 10, Aug 8.
JPNn/aJapanese markets closed for Autumnal Equinox Day.
2230 ETJapan Sep Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Aug +0.2 to 49.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/21/2016

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
General Mills IncGIS US7:00Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20170.759
CarMax IncKMX US7:00Q2 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20170.881
General Mills IncGIS US8:30Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 2017
Allergan plcAGN US8:30Acquisition of Tobira Therapeutics Inc. by Allergan plc Call
Brocade Communications Systems IncBRCD US9:00Investor DayY 2016
CarMax IncKMX US9:00Q2 2017 Earnings CallQ2 2017
Intuit IncINTU US11:00Investor DayY 2016
Copart IncCPRT US11:00Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Applied Materials IncAMAT US13:30Analyst DayY 2016
Retail Properties of America IncRPAI US16:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2016
Red Hat IncRHT US16:15Q2 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20170.539
Jabil Circuit IncJBL US16:30Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q2 2017 Earnings CallQ2 2017
Red Hat IncRHT US17:00Q2 2017 Earnings CallQ2 2017
Alphabet IncGOOGL US17:00ITC Due to Announce Next Step in Google vs Creative Technology Patent Case
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY USAft-mktQ2 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20171.161
Jabil Circuit IncJBL USAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.249
Raymond James Financial IncRJF USAugust 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Operating Data2016
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Wednesday, May 18, 2016

CCO, NYMT, TOW,FRPT AND MTW - BUY SIGNALS

Today I added 5 stocks to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum.  The stock added were:

Clear Channel Outdoors (CCO), New York Mortgage (NYMT), Two Harbors Investments (TWO), Freshpet (FRPT) and Manitowoc (MTW).

Clear Channel Outdoors (CCO)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 37.61% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.51%
  • Technical support level at 5.83
  • Recently traded at 6.11 with a 50 day moving average of 4.86


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy  signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 14.87% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.42%
  • Technical support level at 5.51
  • Recently traded at 5.64 with a 50 day moving average of 4.96


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 9.61% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.15%
  • Technical support level at 8.31
  • Recently trade at 8.44 with a 50 day moving average of 7.92
Freshpet (FRPT)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 20.22% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 60.31%
  • Technical support level at 8.47
  • Recently traded at 8.86 with a 50 day moving average of 7.76
Manitowoc (MTW)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 22.34% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 65.39%
  • Technical support level at 5.70
  • Recently traded at 5.86 with a 50 day moving average of 4.95












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Thursday, January 7, 2016

MORNING CALL 1/7

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -2.17%) are down sharply by -2.24% at a 3-month low and European stocks are down -3.10% at a 3-1/4 month low after China's stock exchanges closed less than half an hour after opening when they fell 7% and triggered a halt to trading for the second time this week. Chinese stocks tumbled as the PBOC cut its reference rate for the yuan for an eighth straight day, which sent the yuan plunging to a 4-3/4 year low against the dollar as China is attempting to spur economic growth through a weaker yuan. Freeport-McMoRan and Alcoa are both down more than 4% in pre-market trading as the price of copper (HGH16 -2.83%) dropped -3.04% to a 1-1/2 month low, and energy producers are lower as the price of crude oil (CLG16 -3.62%) plummeted -3.15% to a 12-year low. Another negative for stocks was the action by the World Bank to lower its 2016 global growth estimate to 2.9% from a 3.3% estimate in Jun. Asian stocks settled sharply lower: Japan -2.33%, Hong Kong -3.09%, China -7.04%, Taiwan-1.73%, Australia -2.20%, Singapore -2.65%, South Korea -1.14%, India -2.18%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.39%) is down -0.47%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.69%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.86% to a 4-1/2 month low.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.21%) are up +9.5 ticks at a 2-month high on a flight-to-safety with the plunge in global equity markets.
The PBOC reported that China's foreign exchange reserves shrank by a record $108 billion in Dec, which cut its total foreign-exchange reserves to a 3-year low of $3.33 trillion as the PBOC has burnt through its reserves in an attempt to prop up the yuan.
The World Bank cut its 2016 global growth estimate to 2.9% from a 3.3% estimate in Jun, citing a weaker outlook for the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. The World Bank also cut its 2016 China growth outlook to 6.7% from a 7.0% estimate in Jun.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dec challenger job cuts (Nov -13.9% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -12,000 to 275,000, previous +20,000 to 287,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 2.200 million, previous +3,000 to 2.198 million), (3) Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker's speech on the 2016 economic outlook at an event hosted by the Great Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, (4) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon.
There are 3 of the Russell 3000 companies that report earnings today: Walgreens Boots Alliance (consensus $0.96), Constellation Brands (1.30), Bed Bath & Beyond (1.09).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week: Citi Global Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Wed-Thu.







OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX -8.05%) and Alcoa (AA -7.12%) are both down more than 4% in pre-market trading as the price of copper dropped -3.04% to a 1-1/2 month low.
Capital One Financial (COF -1.31%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -1.53%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.03, better than consensus of 96 cents.
Agilent Technologies (A +0.44%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Cowen with a price target of $46.
Macy's (M -2.19%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it initially sold-off 5% when it lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to $2.18-$2.23 from a previous estimate of $2.54-$2.64, and then said it will reduce costs by $400 million by closing 36 stores and cutting up to 4,800 jobs in early 2016.
NetApp (NTAP -2.80%) reported that CFO Nick Noviello is leaving the firm to pursue another opportunity and named VP of corporate finance, Jeffrey Bergmann, as interim CFO.
Paycom Software (PAYC +0.34%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Robert Baird with a 12-month price target of $48.
Resource Connection (RECN -3.45%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 23 cents, below consensus of 24 cents.
Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.50%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q4 EPS to 45 cents-47 cents from a previous estimate of 40 cents-46 cents, above consensus of 43 cents.
Mistras Group (MG -1.74%) surged over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 39 cents, well above consensus of 26 cents.
Globus Medical (GMED +1.92%) slipped over 2% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2016 sales of $583 million, below consensus of $590.4 million.
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO +5.56%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after Lamar Advertising said it was near an agreement to acquire billboard assets valued at about $450 million from CCO.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -2.17%) this morning are down sharply by -44.50 points (-2.24%) to a 3-month low. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.31%, Dow Jones -1.47%, Nasdaq -0.90%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday dropped to a 3-month low and closed lower on the PBOC's cut in its daily reference rate for the yuan for the seventh day in a row, which stoked Chinese economic concerns that undercut global stocks and pushed the yuan down to a 4-3/4 year low against the dollar. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -0.6 point decline in the Dec ISM U.S. non-manufacturing index to 55.3, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 56.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 20 months. On the positive side, the Dec ADP employment change rose +257,000, stronger than expectations of +198,000 and the biggest increase in a year.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.21%) this morning are up +9.5 ticks to a 2-month high. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 +19.50, FVH6 +12.25. Mar T-notes on Wednesday climbed to a 3-week high and settled higher on increased safe-haven demand with the plunge in global equity markets and on the slide in energy prices, which undercut inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.39%) this morning is down -0.471 (-0.47%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) up +0.0074 (+0.69%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-1.02 (-0.86%) to a 4-1/2 month low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.223 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0033 (+0.31%), USD/JPY -0.59 (-0.50%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on (1) the fall in USD/JPY to a 2-1/2 month low after the plunge in global equity markets boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) speculation that this week's sell-off in global equity markets may prompt the Fed to delay the next interest rate increase.
Feb crude oil (CLG16 -3.62%) this morning is down -$1.07 a barrel (-3.15%) to a 12-year low and Feb gasoline (RBG16 -1.39%) is down -0.0118(-1.02%) to a fresh 6-3/4 year low. Wednesday's closes: CLG6 -1.91 (-5.31%), RBG6 -0.0932 (-7.42%). Feb crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply lower as Feb crude and Feb gasoline posted 6-3/4 year nearest-futures lows. Crude oil prices were hurt by the +917,000 bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing to a record high 63.91 million bbl and by the +10.58 million bbl surge in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 9-1/2 month high. On the positive side, EIA crude supplies unexpectedly fell -5.09 million bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/07/2016
US0730 ETDec challenger job cuts, Nov -13.9% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -12,000 to 275,000, previous +20,000 to 287,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 2.200 million, previous +3,000 to 2.198 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0845 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the 2016 economic outlook at an event hosted by the Great Raleigh Chamber of Commerce.
1100 ETTreasury announce amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jan 12-14.
1415 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon.
GER0200 ETGerman Nov factory orders expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Oct +1.8% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Nov retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +3.7% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
0300 ETGerman Dec Markit construction PMI, Nov 52.5.
UK0400 ETUK Dec new car registrations, Nov +3.8% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Dec economic confidence expected -0.1 to 106.0, Nov 106.1. Dec business climate indicator expected +0.03 to 0.39, Nov 0.36.
0500 ETRevised Eurozone Dec consumer confidence, preliminary +0.2 to 5.7.
0500 ETEurozone Nov retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Oct -0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Nov unemployment rate expected unch at 10.7%.
JPN2030 ETJapan Nov labor cash earnings expected +0.7% y/y, Oct +0.7% y/y. Nov real cash earnings, Oct +0.4% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/07/2016

CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US7:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.957
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US7:00December 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
L Brands IncLB US7:30December 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
Constellation Brands IncSTZ US7:30Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.297
Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US8:30December 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
Constellation Brands IncSTZ US10:30Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US16:15Q3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20161.091
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US17:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Gap Inc/TheGPS USDecember 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
L Brands IncLB USDecember 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Mylan NVMYL USSpecial Meeting
Ameren CorpAEE USInvestor MeetingY 2016
Compass Minerals International IncCMP USQ4 2015 Sales and Revenue ReleaseQ4 2015
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Monday, October 31, 2011

Barchart Morning Call - 8/31

Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - 1 hr 19 mins ago
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are weaker with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.85% and Dec S&Ps down -11.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries rose while commodities declined on concern that European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region's debt crisis. The euro fell and credit default swaps to insure European government debt rose after the yield on Italian 5-year notes surged 17 bp to 5.92%, the highest in 14 years. The euro also weakened after the Xinhau news agency reported that China can't play the role of "savior" in Europe's debt crisis. European banks led stock losses with BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA all dropping more than 5%. Stock prices remained under pressure after the Oct Euro-Zone CPI estimate unexpectedly remained at a 3-year high of 3% and after the Sep Euro-Zone unemployment rate unexpectedly increased +0.1 to match a 13-year high of 10.2%. European debt concerns seemed to have affected Sep German retail sales which rose +0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y. The OECD urged G-20 governments and central banks to "act decisively" to restore confidence as it cut its growth estimates for the U.S. economy to 1.7% this year and 1.8% next year from a May projection of 2.6% and 3.1% this year and next. The OECD also lowered its Euro-Zone GDP estimates to 1.6% in 2011 and +0.3% in 2012 from a previous estimate of 2.0% for each year.
  • Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.69%, China -0.51%, Australia -1.27%, SOuth Korea -1.03%, India -0.56%. The yen plunged to a 2-3/4 month low against the dollar after Japan intervened in the currency market for the third time this year in a unilateral intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said the move was carried out to combat "one-sided speculative moves that don't reflect the economic fundamentals of our economy." Japan had sold 4.51 trillion yen in Aug to combat the yen's strength, the largest monthly amount since Mar 2004. Chinese stocks closed lower, led by losses in producers of property materials and property developers, after Premier Wen Jiabao said the government should "firmly" maintain property curbs.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down by -11.00 points. The US stock market last Friday traded in the red most of the day and settled mixed as concern EU leaders haven't done enough to stem the region's debt crisis offset an increase in consumer confidence: Dow Jones +0.18%, S&P 500 +0.04%, Nasdaq Composite -0.05%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced labor costs with the smaller-than-expected increase in the Q3 U.S. employment cost index which posted its smallest gain in 10 months (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Sep PCE core deflator (unchanged m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y), (3) the as-expected +0.6% increase in Sep personal spending, which shows consumer spending remains relatively healthy, and (4) the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which climbed to a 3-month high (+3.4 to 60.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 58.0).
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks after weak demand for an Italian bond auction drove up 10-year Italian bond yields 15 bp, (2) the statement from Fitch Ratings that the European agreement on a 50% haircut on Greek bonds "would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria," and (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep U.S. personal income, (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%), which may prompt a decline in consumer spending as income growth remains stagnant.
  • Chevron (CVX) slipped 1.3% in pre-market trading as crude oil fell and after Bank of America cut the stock to "neutral" from "buy."
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +11.5 ticks as stocks slide. T-note prices last Friday settled higher on reduced price pressures along with an increase in safe-haven demand on concern European officials may need to take further steps to stem the region's debt crisis: TYZ11 +25, FVZ11 +12, EDH12 +3.0. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Q3 U.S. employment cost index which posted its smallest gain in 10 months (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep U.S. personal income (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%), which may prompt a decline in consumer spending as income growth remains stagnant, (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Sep PCE core deflator (unchanged m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y), and (4) increased demand for Treasuries after Fitch Ratings said that part of the European plan to stem the region's debt crisis amounts to a Greek default. Bearish factors included (1) the as-expected +0.6% increase in Sep personal spending, which shows consumer spending remains relatively healthy and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which climbed to a 3-month high (+3.4 to 60.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 58.0).
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen +2.07 yen and the euro/dollar -1.40 cents. The yen plunged to a 2-3/4 month low against the dollar following Japan's intervention in the currency market to stem the yen's strength. The dollar index last Friday settled slightly higher as the euro weakened after an increase in Italian borrowing costs raised concern EU leaders haven't done enough to stem the region's debt crisis: Dollar Index +0.188, USDJPY -0.153, EURUSD -0.00416. Bullish factors included (1) a weaker-than-anticipated Italian bond auction after only 7.93 billion euros out of a maximum target of 8.5 billion-euros were purchased, (2) weaker-than-expected Sep French consumer spending, and (3) the weaker than expected Sep Japan industrial production, which is yen negative. A bearish factor was the weaker-than-expected Sep U.S. personal income, which may inhibit growth as weak income growth prompts consumers to cut back on spending.
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are doen -68 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is -1.14 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled lower on global economic growth concerns along with dollar strength: CLZ11 -$0.64, RBZ11 -5.98. Bearish factors included (1) the -4.0% m/m decline Sep Japan industrial pr0duction, nearly double the decline that was expected and an indication of weak energy demand in the world's third-largest oil consumer and (2) the stronger dollar, which diminishes investment demand for commodities. A bullish factor was the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which may signal that consumer spending and fuel demand may be sustained.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): APC-Anadarko Petroleum (BEST earnings consensus $0.66), L-Loews (0.54), HCP-HCP Inc. (0.48), ALL-Allstate (0.09), HUM-Humana (2.03), AVB-AvalonBay Communities (0.48), CNA-CNA Financial (0.10), HLF-Herbalife Ltd. (0.76), FMC-FMC Corp. (1.35), BWP-Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (0.24), UDR-UDR Inc. (-0.11), SM-SM Energy (0.69), SBAC-SBA Communications (-0.24), PRE-PartnerRe Ltd. (1.45), MDU-MDU Resources Group (0.37), CCO-Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (0.05).
Global Financial Calendar
Monday 10/31/11
United States
0945 ET Oct Chicago purchasing managers index expected -1.4 to 59.0, Sep +4.1 to 60.4.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Japan
0100 ET Sep Japan construction orders, Aug +9.3% y/y.
0100 ET Sep Japan housing starts expected +8.6% y/y to 906,000, Aug +14.0% y/y to 934,000.
2130 ET Sep Japan labor cash earnings expected -0.4% y/y, Aug -0.4% y/y.
Germany
0300 ET Sep German retail sales expected +1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Aug -2.7% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
France
0345 ET Sep French producer prices expected +0.1% m/m and +6.1% y/y, Aug unchanged m/m and +6.3% y/y.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Sep U.K. net consumer credit expected +0.4 billion pounds, Aug +0.5 billion pounds.
0530 ET Sep U.K. mortgage approvals expected +50,600, Aug +52,400.
0530 ET Sep U.K. M4 money supply, Aug -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0600 ET Oct Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.9% y/y, Sep +3.0% y/y.
0600 ET Sep Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected unchanged at 10.0%, Aug unchanged at 10.0%,
Canada
0830 ET Sep Canada industrial product prices expected +0.1% m/m, Aug +0.5% m/m.
0830 ET Sep Canada raw materials price index expected -1.9% m/m, Aug -3.2% m/m.
CHI
2100 ET Oct China PMI manufacturing expected +0.6 to 51.8, Sep +0.3 to 51.2.

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