Wednesday, January 28, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/28

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.14%) this morning are up +0.22% on stellar quarterly earnings results from Apple and AT&T and European stocks are down -0.50% as a slide in Greek stocks leads European stocks lower. Losses in European stocks were limited after Germany's Economy Ministry raised its German 2015 GDP forecast. Greece's ASE Stock Index plunged over 6% to a 2-1/3 year low and the 10-year Greek bond yield climbed to a 3-week high of 10.485% on concern the newly elected Syriza-led coalition will challenge austerity measures imposed on Greece. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said his new government "will not be forgiven" if it betrays its pre-election pledges to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.15%, Hong Kong +0.22%, China -1.39%, Taiwan -0.11%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore +0.20%, South Korea unch, India -0.04%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 4-week high after stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings from Apple boosted Japanese technology stocks. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.56%) is down -1.56%. Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.73%) is up +0.72%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.10%) is down -0.12%. Mar copper (HGH15 +0.55%) is up +0.73%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.25%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.10%) are up +3.5 ticks.
The German Dec import price index fell -1.7% m/m, more than expectations of -1.5% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 6 years. On an annual basis, Dec import prices fell -3.7% y/y, more than expectations of -3.4% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5 years.
German Feb GfK consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 9.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 9.1 and the highest since the data series began in 2005.
The German Economy Ministry in its biannual report raised its German 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from an Oct estimate of 1.3%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market consensus is that the FOMC at its 2-day meeting that ends today will leave its interest rate and policy guidance unchanged. The Treasury today will sell $15 billion of 2-year floating rate notes and $26 billion of 2-year T-notes in auctions that were delayed from yesterday due to the massive snowstorm that hit the East Coast.
There are 31 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Facebook (consensus $0.48), Boeing (2.10), St Jude Medical (1.03), Rockwell Automation (1.49), Textron (0.76), General Dynamics (2.13), Citrix (1.03), Murphy Oil (0.24), Ameriprise (2.22). Equity conferences today include: Phacilitate Immunotherapy Forum on Mon-Wed.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
International Paper (IP -1.50%) reported Q4 EPS of 53 cents, higher than consensus of 48 cents.
Apple (AAPL -3.50%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $3.06, well above consensus of $2.60.
PolyOne (POL -0.50%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Total System (TSS -1.84%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents.
VMware (VMW -2.24%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.08, more than consensus of $1.07, and then authorized an additional $1 billion stock buyback.
Ultra Petroleum (UPL +1.04%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Western Digital (WDC -3.32%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.26, higher than consensus of $2.10.
International Game (IGT -0.29%) reported Q1 EPS of 19 cents, below consensus of 25 cents, and then said it will not provide fiscal 2015 financial guidance
Freescale (FSL +0.65%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, above consensus of 33 cents.
Yahoo (YHOO -2.93%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 30 cents, higher than consensus of 29 cents, and then said its Board of Directors authorized a plan for a tax-free spin-off of the company's remaining holdings in Alibaba Group (BABA) into a newly formed independent registered investment company.
Illumina (ILMN +0.78%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of 87 cents, better than consensus of 78 cents.
Stryker (SYK -0.24%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.44, less than consensus of $1.45, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $4.90-$5.10, below consensus of $5.14.
Juniper (JNPR -1.44%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 41 cents, above consensus of 31 cents.
AT&T (T -1.12%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 55 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $34.40 billion was above consensus of $34.26 billion.
Amgen (AMGN -0.53%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $2.16, better than consensus of $2.05.
Electronic Arts (EA -2.14%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.22, well above consensus of 92 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.35, above consensus of $2.09.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.14%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.22%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.34%, Dow Jones -1.65%, Nasdaq -2.58%. Negative factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Dec durable goods orders by -3.4% and -0.8% ex-transportation, weaker than expectations of +0.3% and +0.6% ex-transportation, and (2) concerns about corporate earnings after disappointing results from Microsoft, Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, and DuPont. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after U.S. Dec new home sales surged +11.6% to 481,000, stronger than expectations of +2.7% to 450,000 and the most in 6-1/2 years, and after Jan consumer confidence (Conference Board) climbed +9.8 to 102.9, stronger than expectations of +2.6 to 95.5 and the highest in 7-1/3 years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.10%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +5.00, FVH5 +3.00. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Dec durable goods orders, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks plunged. Gains in T-note prices were limited after U.S. Dec new home sales and Jan consumer confidence were both stronger than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.052 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0029 (-0.25%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05 (-0.04%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower: Dollar index -0.780 (-0.82%), EUR/USD +0.01421 (+1.26%), USD/JPY -0.588 (-0.50%). Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Dec durable goods orders, which may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes, and (2) short-covering in EUR/USD after Swiss National Bank Vice President Danthine said “we’re fundamentally prepared” to intervene again in the currency markets.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.56%) this morning is down -72 cents (-1.56%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.73%) is up +0.0100 (+0.72%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Tuesday closed higher: CLH5 +1.08 (+2.39%), RBH5 +0.0463 (+3.44%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) the surge in U.S. Jan consumer confidence to the highest level in 7-1/3 years, which may lead to an increase in consumer spending and energy demand.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/28/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +14.2% with purchase sub-index -2.5% and refi sub-index +22.3%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $15 billion 2-year floating rate notes.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
1400 ETFOMC announces interest rate decision.
GER0200 ETGerman Dec import price index expected -1.5% m/m and -3.4% y/y, Nov -0.8% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Feb GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 9.1, Jan 9.0.
JPN1850 ETJapan Dec retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Nov -0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/28/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
American Electric Power Co IncAEP USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.499
Hess CorpHES USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.231
Praxair IncPX USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.566
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.45
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.971
Textron IncTXT USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.762
Rockwell Automation IncROK USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.493
ADT Corp/TheADT USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.491
Hudson City Bancorp IncHCBK USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.045
TE Connectivity LtdTEL USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.901
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.153
International Paper CoIP USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.484
Anthem IncANTM US6:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.744
AMETEK IncAME US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.615
St Jude Medical IncSTJ US7:15Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.026
T Rowe Price Group IncTROW US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.137
Boeing Co/TheBA US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.103
General Dynamics CorpGD US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.134
Textron IncTXT US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
St Jude Medical IncSTJ US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Anthem IncANTM US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Anthem IncANTM US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallC4 2014
ACE LtdACE US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Rockwell Automation IncROK US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
ADT Corp/TheADT US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
TE Connectivity LtdTEL US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
AMETEK IncAME US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
American Electric Power Co IncAEP US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Lorillard IncLO US9:00Special Meeting - M&A Vote
General Dynamics CorpGD US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Kinder Morgan Inc/DEKMI US9:00Analyst MeetingY 2015
International Paper CoIP US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Reynolds American IncRAI US9:00Special Meeting - M&A Vote
Hess CorpHES US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
MeadWestvaco CorpMWV US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Boeing Co/TheBA US10:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Praxair IncPX US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Visa IncV US11:30Annual General MeetingY 2015
Oracle CorpORCL US12:00Analyst MeetingY 2015
QUALCOMM IncQCOM US16:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.254
Tractor Supply CoTSCO US16:01Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.764
Citrix Systems IncCTXS US16:05Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.029
QUALCOMM IncQCOM US16:45Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Citrix Systems IncCTXS US16:45Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Lam Research CorpLRCX US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallC4 2015
Tractor Supply CoTSCO US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Varian Medical Systems IncVAR US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Facebook IncFB US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Lam Research CorpLRCX USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.128
Murphy Oil CorpMUR USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.238
General Growth Properties IncGGP USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.379
Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncVRTX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2014-0.689
Varian Medical Systems IncVAR USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.874
Facebook IncFB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.483
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.215
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.78
AvalonBay Communities IncAVB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.764
Martin Marietta Materials IncMLM USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.821
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.45
Johnson Controls IncJCI USAnnual General Meeting
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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