Thursday, January 29, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/29

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.51%) this morning are up +0.50% led by gains in Apple and McDonald's in pre-market trading, and European stocks are up +0.23% after Eurozone Jan economic confidence rose to the highest in 6 months. Also, a rally in Greek bank stocks is boosting the overall market after the head of the ECB's Supervisory Board, Daniele Nouy, said that Greek lenders are "pretty strong" and can survive the current market turbulence. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.06%, Hong Kong -1.07%, China -1.23%, Taiwan -0.88%, Australia +0.30%, Singapore unch, South Korea -0.69%, India +0.41%. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 1-week low amid speculation that increased regulatory scrutiny of margin loans will reduce leveraged buying of Chinese stocks after the Xinhua News Agency reported that China's Securities Regulatory Commission will start a new round of checks into the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.11%) is down -0.04%. Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.65%) is up +0.43%. Feb gold (GCG15 -1.29%) is down -1.40% at a 1-1/2 week low. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.86%) is down -2.00%. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.45%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.18%) are down -6 ticks.
Eurozone Jan economic confidence rose +0.6 to 101.2, less than expectations of +0.9 to 101.6 but still the highest in 6 months. The Jan business climate indicator rose +0.01 from an upward revised 0.15 in Dec to 0.16, higher than expectations of +0.12.
Eurozone Dec M3 money supply rose +3.6% y/y, more than expectations of +3.5% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 2 years. The Dec 3-month avg rose +3.1%, right on expectations.
The German Jan unemployment change fell -9,000, slightly less than expectations of -10,000, The Jan unemployment rate fell -0,a from an upward revised 6.6% in Dec to 6.5%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
UK Jan CBI reported sales fell -22 to 39, a smaller decline than expectations of -29 to 32.
UK Jan nationwide house prices rose +0.3% m/m and +6.8% y/y, close to expectations of +0.35 m/m and +6.6% y/y.
Japan Dec retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month as they fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, Dec retail sales rose +0.2% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to fall by -7,000 to 300,000, adding to last week’s decline of -10,000 to 307,000. Today’s continuing claims report is expected to fall by -38,000 to 2.405 million, more than reversing last week’s +15,000 rise to 2.443 million. Today’s Dec pending home sales report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m and +10.9% y/y following the Nov report of +0.8% m/m and +1.7% y/y. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion of 5-year T-notes and $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $105 billion T-note package. There are no equity conferences today.
There are 51 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Google (consensus $7.19), Amazon.com (0.19), Visa (2.49), Abbot (0.69), PulteGroup (0.40), Baxter (1.31), Time Warner (2.09), Dow Chemical (0.70), Ford (0.22), Nasdaq (0.74).



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
McDonald's (MCD -0.88%) rose more than 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that CEO Don Thompson will retire and Steve Easterbrook will replace him.
IDEX Corp. (IEX -0.52%) reported Q4 EPS of 77 cents, weaker than consensus of 87 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.65-$3.75, below consensus of $3.82.
Murphy Oil (MUR -7.23%) reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents, above consensus of 30 cents
Kirby (KEX -3.97%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.19, higher than consensus of $1.15.
Helmerich & Payne (HP -6.49%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $55.
Tetra Tech (TTEK -2.34%) reported Q1 EPS of 41 cents, more than consensus of 35 cents.
Cabot (CBT -2.01%) reported Q1 EPS of 69 cents, better than consensus of 65 cents.
Ameriprise (AMP -2.03%) reported Q4 operating EPS of $2.30, higher than consensus of $2.22.
CACI (CACI +0.05%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.01, below consensus of $1.06.
Swift Transport (SWFT -1.77%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 55 cents, more than consensus of 48 cents.
Hologic (HOLX unch) reported Q1 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 36 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS outlook to $1.54-$1.57 from $1.50-$1.54, higher than consensus of $1.54.
Lam Research (LRCX -0.54%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.19, higher than consensus $1.13.
Citrix (CTXS -1.53%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.10, stronger than consensus of $1.03.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.60%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 92 cents, more than consensus of 81 cents.
Qualcomm (QCOM -1.09%) fell over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.34, better than consensus of $1.25, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS view to $4.75-$5.05 from $5.05-$5.35, below consensus of $5.21.
Facebook (FB +0.61%) reported Q4 EPS of 54 cents, higher than consensus of 48 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.51%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.50%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -1.35%, Dow Jones -1.13%, Nasdaq -0.60%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern that Greece’s new government may default on its international debts if it abandons agreements made by the prior Greek administration, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil sold off. Bullish factors included (1) early strength in technology stocks on better-than-expected earnings results from Apple, and (2) the post-FOMC meeting statement where the Fed pledged to remain “patient” on raising interest rates.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.18%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +26.00, FVH5 +14.75. Bullish factors included (1) the post-FOMC meeting statement where the Fed maintained its pledge to be “patient” on raising interest rates, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as stocks declined.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) this morning is up +0.096 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0027 (+0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.53 (+0.45%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.445 (+0.47%), EUR/USD -0.00932 (-0.82%), USD/JPY -0.3458 (-0.29%). Bullish factors included (1) Greek sovereign debt concerns that weighed on EUR/USD, and (2) the Fed’s post-FOMC statement that said the economy is “expanding at a solid pace,” which bolstered speculation the Fed will raise interest rates later this year.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.11%) this morning is down -2 cents (-0.04%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.65%) is up +0.0059 (+0.43%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Wednesday settled mixed: CLH5 -1.78 (-3.85%), RBH5 -0.0006 (-0.04%). Bearish factors that sent Mar crude down to a 5-3/4 year low included (1) the +8.87 million bbl surge in weekly EIA crude inventories to 406.7 million bbl, twice as much as expectations of +4.0 million bbl and the highest since 1931, (2) the +2.09 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, to an 11-1/2 month high of 38.9 million bbl, and (3) the +0.3% w/w increase in U.S. crude production in the week ended Jan 23 to 9.213 million bpd, the highest in over 40 years. Gasoline prices recovered from their worst levels after weekly EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell -2.6 million bbl versus expectations for a +500,000 bbl increase.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/29/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -7,000 to 300,000, previous -10,000 to 307,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -38,000 to 2.405 million, previous +15,000 to 2.443 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETDec pending home sales expected +0.5% m/m and +10.9% y/y, Nov +0.8% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
UK0200 ETUK Jan nationwide house prices expected +0.3% m/m and +6.6% y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +7.2% y/y.
0600 ETUK Jan CBI reported sales expected -29 to 32, Dec 61.
1905 ETUK Jan GfK consumer confidence expected +2 to -2, Dec -4.
GER0355 ETGerman Jan unemployment change expected -10,000, Dec -27,000. Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 6.5%.
0800 ETGerman Jan CPI (EU harmonized) expected -1.0% m/m and -0.2% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Dec M3 money supply expected +3.5% y/y and +3.1% 3-mo avg, Nov +3.1% y/y and +2.7% 3-mon avg.
0500 ETEurozone Jan business climate indicator expected +0.08 to 0.12, Dec 0.04. Jan economic confidence expected +0.9 to 101.6, Dec 100.7.
0500 ETRevised Eurozone Jan consumer confidence, previous +2.4 to -8.5.
JPN1830 ETJapan Dec jobless rate expected unch at 3.5%. Dec job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.12.
1830 ETJapan Dec overall household spending expected -2.3% y/y, Nov -2.5% y/y.
1830 ETJapan Dec national CPI expected +2.3% y/y, Nov +2.4% y/y. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.6% y/y, Nov +2.7% y/y. Dec national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.1% y/y, Nov +2.1% y/y.
1830 ETJapan Jan Tokyo CPI expected +2.2% y/y, Dec +2.1% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.2% y/y, Dec +2.3% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +1.8% y/y, Dec +1.8% y/y.
1850 ETJapan Dec industrial production expected +1.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Nov -0.5% m/m and -3.7% y/y.
2300 ETJapan Dec vehicle production, Nov-12.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/29/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Abbott LaboratoriesABT USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.686
Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.344
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.491
Mead Johnson Nutrition CoMJN USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.882
Northrop Grumman CorpNOC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.258
Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.678
Valero Energy CorpVLO USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.328
ConocoPhillipsCOP USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.584
PulteGroup IncPHM USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.402
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.291
Baxter International IncBAX USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.311
Viacom IncVIAB USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.285
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.287
CMS Energy CorpCMS USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.359
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.743
Stanley Black & Decker IncSWK USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.518
Cameron International CorpCAM USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.203
Thermo Fisher Scientific IncTMO USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.94
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.042
Time Warner Cable IncTWC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.092
Dow Chemical Co/TheDOW USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.695
Harley-Davidson IncHOG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.334
Cardinal Health IncCAH USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.101
Helmerich & Payne IncHP USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.564
Hershey Co/TheHSY USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.064
Celgene CorpCELG USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.007
Royal Caribbean Cruises LtdRCL USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.418
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.705
Raytheon CoRTN US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.797
EMC Corp/MAEMC US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.683
Coach IncCOH US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.66
Ford Motor CoF US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.224
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.744
Invesco LtdIVZ US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.621
Zimmer Holdings IncZMH US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.371
Stanley Black & Decker IncSWK US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
NASDAQ OMX Group Inc/TheNDAQ US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.291
Phillips 66PSX US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.407
PulteGroup IncPHM US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Baxter International IncBAX US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Viacom IncVIAB US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Thermo Fisher Scientific IncTMO US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
EMC Corp/MAEMC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Coach IncCOH US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Cardinal Health IncCAH US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Hershey Co/TheHSY US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Abbott LaboratoriesABT US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Raytheon CoRTN US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
CMS Energy CorpCMS US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Invesco LtdIVZ US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Dow Chemical Co/TheDOW US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
General Growth Properties IncGGP US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ford Motor CoF US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallC4 2014
Harley-Davidson IncHOG US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Celgene CorpCELG US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Mead Johnson Nutrition CoMJN US9:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Cameron International CorpCAM US9:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Occidental Petroleum CorpOXY US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Valero Energy CorpVLO US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Keurig Green Mountain IncGMCR US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Royal Caribbean Cruises LtdRCL US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ford Motor CoF US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed Income CallQ4 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Helmerich & Payne IncHP US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Phillips 66PSX US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Northrop Grumman CorpNOC US12:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
ConocoPhillipsCOP US12:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGS US12:00Q4 2014 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeC4 2014
Murphy Oil CorpMUR US13:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
AvalonBay Communities IncAVB US13:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW US14:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Robert Half International IncRHI US16:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.606
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US16:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.048
Google IncGOOGL US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Biogen Idec IncBIIB US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Broadcom CorpBRCM US16:45Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Broadcom CorpBRCM USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.869
CR Bard IncBCR USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.243
Visa IncV USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20152.487
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.621
Google IncGOOGL USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20147.185
Chubb Corp/TheCB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.171
Amazon.com IncAMZN USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.19
Biogen Idec IncBIIB USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20143.775
PerkinElmer IncPKI USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.778
Boston Properties IncBXP USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.253
Leggett & Platt IncLEG USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.447
Mylan Inc/PAMYL USSpecial Meeting - M&A Vote
Keurig Green Mountain IncGMCR USAnnual General Meeting
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC USAnnual General Meeting
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