Barchart's Morning Call 8/13

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Thu Aug 16, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.14% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.08%. U.S. stocks are higher led by a 5.6% rally in Cisco Systems after the company late yesterday reported Q4 EPS of 47 cents, higher than estimates of 46 cents, and increased its quarterly dividend by 75% to 14 cents a share. Commodity prices are lower with Sep crude down -0.06% and Sep copper down -0.07%, while the grain markets are mixed with Dec corn up +0.22% and Nov soybeans down -0.14%. The dollar index this morning is up +0.10% at a 1-1/2 week high with EUR/USD down -0.07% and USD/JPY up +0.33% at a 1-month high. Sep T-notes are down -3 ticks at a 3-month low on reduced expectations for additional Fed stimulus.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan +1.88%, Hong Kong -0.45%, China -0.51%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia +1.14%, Singapore +0.03%, South Korea -0.01%, and India -0.40%.
• Spain's 10-year bond yield fell 6 bp to a 1-month low of 6.55% after a person familiar with the matter said Spain is about to get an emergency disbursement from a 100 billion-euro bailout package.
• U.K. July retail sales with auto fuel unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y, better than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
• Euro-Zone July CPI fell -0.5% m/m and rose +2.4% y/y, right on expectations.
• Dallas Fed President Fisher said late Wednesday that he doesn't see a "high likelihood" of a recession next year and that he doesn't believe "any amount of monetary stimulus is going to deal with this uncertainty and inability of companies to budget, to plan" due to the lack of clarity in fiscal policy.
• China July foreign direct investment fell -8.7% y/y to $7.58 billion, its lowest level in 2 years, which fuels concern that a slowdown in confidence in China's growth prospects may restrain any economic rebound.
• The South Korean July unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped -0.1 to 3.1%, better than expectations of a +0.1 increase to 3.3% and its lowest level in 7 months.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.14%) and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.08%. The stock market on Wednesday fluctuated between gains and losses and finally settled mixed as strength in U.S. July industrial production and the Aug NAHB housing market index offset weakness in the Aug Empire manufacturing index and an increase in Q2 China non-performing loans: S&P 500 +0.11%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq 100 +0.28%. Tame inflation was another positive for stocks as the smaller-than-expected +1.4% y/y increase in July CPI was its smallest annual gain in 20 months.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -3 ticks at a fresh 3-month low on reduced expectations of additional Fed stimulus. T-note prices on Wednesday fell for the third straight session as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on industrial production and housing signaled improvement in the economy that dampened speculation the Fed will need to provide additional monetary stimulus: TYU2 -18.0, FVU2 -7.2. The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 3-month high of 1.811%.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.10%. EUR/USD is down -0.07% and USD/JPY is up +0.33% at a 1-month high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher as strong U.S. economic data on industrial production and housing dampened speculation the Fed will need to increase dollar negative stimulus measures to support the economy: Dollar index +0.162 (+0.20%), EUR/USD -0.08%, USD/JPY +0.54%. USD/JPY posted a 4-week high as an increase in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield to a 3-month high boosted the dollar's interest rate differentials versus the yen.
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are down 6 cents a barrel (-0.06%) and Sep gasoline is -0.0073 of a cent per gallon (-0.24%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher after DOE weekly crude oil supplies fell a more than expected -3.70 million barrels a day to a 4-month low of 366.2 million barrels, while U.S. petroleum consumption for the week ended Aug 10 jumped 5.7% to a 9-month high of 20.03 million barrels a day: CLU2 +0.90 (+0.96%), RBU2 +0.0826 (+2.75%).
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    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): WMT-Wal-Mart (Consensus $1.17), GPS-The Gap (0.48), ROST-Ross Stores (0.81), DLTR-Dollar Tree (0.47), PRGO-Perrigo (1.27), AVGO-Avago Technologies Ltd. (0.66), MRVL-Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (0.27), SHLD-Sears Holdings (-0.86), BRCD-Brocade Communication Systems (0.12), GME-GameStop (0.15), BKE-The Buckle (0.49), ARO-Aeropostale (0.01), PLCE-Children's Place Retail Stores (-0.66), SFUN-SouFun Holdings Ltd. (0.41), DRYS-DryShips (0.05).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Thursday 8/16/12
    United States
    0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 365,000, previous -6,000 to 361,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -27,000 to 3.305 million, previous +53,000 to 3.332 million .
    0830 ET	July housing starts expected -0.4% to 757,000, June +6.9% to 760,000. July building permits expected +1.3% to 770,000, June -3.1% to 760,000.
    0830 ET	USDA weekly exports.
    1000 ET	Aug Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +7.9 to -5.0, July +3.7 to -12.9.
    1030 ET	DOE natural gas storage.
    1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 5-year TIPS (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Aug 23.
    1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
    Japan
    0000 ET	Tokyo July condo sales, June +16.4% y/y.
    United Kingdom
    0430 ET	UK July retail sales with auto fuel expected -0.1% m/m and +1,4% y/y, June +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y. July retail sales ex-auto fuel expected -0.2% m/m and +2/0% y/y, June +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
    Euro-Zone
    0500 ET	Eurozone July CPI expected -0.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y, June -0.1% m/m. July core CPI expected +1.7% y/y, June +1.6% y/y.
    CHI
    2130 ET	China July industrial profits, June -2.2% y/y.

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