Barchart Morning Call
Overnight
Developments
- Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.04% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.36%. Commodity prices are mixed with Sep crude up +0.85% and Sep copper down -0.55%. Energy prices are higher amid concern Middle East tensions may curb supply. The grain markets are weaker with Dec corn down -0.80% as precipitation moves into the central U.S. The dollar index this morning is lower with EUR/USD up +0.55% after Italy sold its maximum target at an auction of Treasury bills. Sep 10-year T-notes are down -4.5 ticks this morning.
- Asian stocks today closed mostly lower as weaker-than-expected Japan Q2 GDP heightened global growth concerns: Japan -0.07%, Hong Kong -0.27%, China -1.99%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +0.14%, Singapore +0.35%, South Korea -0.87%, India +0.43%.
- Japan Q2 GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +1.4% q/q annualized, weaker than expectations of +0.6 q/q and +2.3% q/q annualized, while deflation concerns persist after the Q2 GDP deflator fell -1.1% y/y, more than expectations of -0.8% y/y.
- Greek Q2 GDP contracted -6.2% y/y, its ninth straight quarter of contraction, although slightly better than expectations of -7.0% y/y.
- BOE Governor King said in an article in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that Europe's crisis has "no obvious end in sight" and that the U.K. must press on with reforms to the banking industry.
- Italy sold 8 billion euros of 364-day Treasury bills, its maximum target, at 2.767%, up from 2.697% at the last sale of similar-maturity debt last month.
- The Bank of Italy reported that Italian government debt rose 6.6 billion euros in June to a record 1.97 trillion euros.
- Italian Finance Minister Grilli said in the la Republica on Sunday that his country doesn't need to tap Europe's bailout funds and that "the ECB's toolbox, once operative, will substantially reduce tension on bond spreads."
- Israel's Haaretz daily reported late Friday that Israeli leaders are leaning
toward a military strike on Iran over its nuclear program before U.S. elections
in November despite opposition to such a move by the security establishment.
Market Comments- Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.04% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.36%% on expectations of further central bank stimulus. The stock market on Friday closed slightly higher on optimism the Fed will boost stimulus measures to stimulate growth. Stocks erased early losses tied to global economic concerns after Jun French industrial production and Chinese export growth both weakened more than expected: S&P 500 +0.22%, Dow Jones +0.32%, Nasdaq 100 +0.12%. Stocks weakened early after July China exports rose +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +8.0% y/y and the slowest pace of growth in 6 months. Another negative for stocks was concern the ongoing European debt crisis is undercutting growth after French June industrial production fell -2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.8% y/y. The main bullish factor for stocks was optimism that global central banks will act to stimulate the economy.
- Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -4.5 ticks. T-note prices on Friday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after stocks fell early on concern global growth was slowing after China's July exports rose less than expected along with supply relief as U.S. bond dealers lifted their short hedges following the Treasury's $72 billion refunding operation: TYU2 +9, FVU2 +5.2.
- The dollar index this morning is down -0.21%. EUR/USD is up +0.55% and USD/JPY is +0.04%. The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower after Fed President Williams suggested it's time to move ahead with QE3: Dollar index -0.85 (-0.10%), EUR/USD -0.00176 (-0.14%), USD/JPY -0.289 (-0.37%). The dollar rallied early last Friday after global stocks fell on weak Chinese export data but dollar gains evaporated after San Francisco Fed President Williams said it was time to move ahead with QE3.
- Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are up 79 cents a barrel (+0.85%) and Sep gasoline is up +3.60 cents a gallon (+1.20%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed mixed as a slowdown in China's export growth along with the action by the IEA to cut its 2012 and 2013 global demand forecasts bolstered energy demand concerns: CLU2 -0.49 (-0.52%), RBU2 +0.0031 (+0.10%). The IEA cut its 2012 world crude oil consumption estimate by 250,000 barrels a day to 89.6 million barrels a day and cut its 2013 global oil demand forecast to 90.5 million barrels a day, 400,000 barrels less than last month's estimate. Energy demand in China, the world's second-largest consumer of crude, also slowed after its customs data showed July China crude imports were 21.6 MMT, the weakest in 7 months. Gasoline prices were boosted by a continued shutdown of a Chevron refinery in California along with a fire at an Imperial Oil refinery in Ontario. Energy prices also found support from the action of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center to raise its seasonal Atlantic storm forecast for this year to 12 to 17 systems, up from a May forecast of 9 to 15 systems.
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Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): SYY-Sysco (Consensus $0.54), IOC-Interoil (0.06), GRPN-Groupon (0.03), WX-WuXi PharmaTech Cayman (0.32), BCEI-Bonanza Creek Energy (0.30), BH-Biglari Holdings (5.47), MPO-Midstates Petroleum (0.02).
Global Financial Calendar
Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.Monday 8/13/12 United States 1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections. 1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions. 1600 ET USDA Crop Progress. Germany 0200 ET German July wholesale price index, Jun -1.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y Japan 1950 ET Japan June tertiary industry index expected -0.3%, May +0.7% m/m. United Kingdom 1901 ET UK July RICS house price balance expected -23%, June -22%.
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