Financial Tides pick today is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ( ORLY ) a specialty retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories to both ``do-it-yourself`` customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly stores carry an extensive product line consisting of new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, and brake shoes and pads, maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, engine additives and appearance products, accessories, such as floor mats and seat covers.
The company has been on an acquisition tear lately and will soon integrate 1300 CKS, 123 Checkers and 141 Murrays stores into their fold bringing their total to over 3500 stores. All these stores will be rebannered and new inventory will be O'Reilly labeled. They have experienced a 7% increase in same store sales of the O'Reilly stores and a 5% increase is same store sales of the newly acquired stores.
The technical price action in the stock has been impressive. The price has appreciated 17.88% in the last 30 days. Barchart gives it a 100% technical buy rating with all 13 technical indicators signaling a buy. The stock hit 13 new highs in the last 20 trading session. It trades around 49.31 with a 50 day moving average of 42.12,
Wall Street likes it too with 14 buy, 10 hold and no negative recommendations released. Analysts expect the sales to increase 7.10% this year and 7.60% next year. Earning per share after acquisitions are factored in are expected to increase 17.30% this year, 15.50% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth of 16.12%.
Investor sentiment is high with the Motley Fool CAPS members thinking the stock will beat the market by a vote of 210 to 13 with the All Stars in agreement by a vote of 75 to 5. The Wall Street calumniates Fool follows have had favorable articles 13 to 1.
Long term investors should expect this stock to increase to about 56.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No position in this stock at the time of publication.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Where is my "Thanks" from GM ( plus 6 automotive stocks )
Lately I've been watching all the ads on TV and other places in the mass media where Ed Whitacre the GM CEO struts across the scene and brags about how proud he is that GM paid back their TARP loans ahead of time and with interest to boot. Nowhere did I hear a "Thank you". As a taxpayer, I loaned him the money, my taxes funded the tax credit for clunker programs and we the American consumer bought his cars.
It was not his brilliance or the hard work of his management team that turned GM around it was the benevolence of the American taxpayers and consumers, plus a little luck from the problems experienced by Toyota that made all his new sales possible.
Mister Whitacre, my mom always told me that whenever someone does you a favor it would be very rude not to say "Thank you". Since you forgot to say "Thank you", I bet your mom is embarrassed.
I started thinking that if the auto industry is turning around maybe there might be some auto suppliers that might have recent price appreciation and glowing recommendations from Wall Street so I did a little screening and came up with a few that might make sense to consider for your portfolios.
When I look at an industry to mine for gems I usually use 3 yard sticks to get a feel of the likelihood that a stock will increase. The yard sticks are:
Price Momentum - 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy for a 100% technical buy rating. The stock appreciated 30.54% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 8 of the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations - Only BB&T follows the stock and rates it a buy. They look for a 9.60% increase in sales this year and a 6.20% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 12.20% this year and 14.50% next year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members vote 120 to 5 that the stock will beat the market with the more experienced All Stars voting 40 to 0.
Commercial Vehicle Group ( CVGI ) supplies interior systems, vision safety solutions and other cab-related products for the global commercial vehicle market, including the heavy-duty (Class 8) truck market, the construction market and other specialized transportation markets. The company's products include suspension seat systems, interior trim systems, such as instrument and door panels, headliners, cabinetry and floor systems, mirrors, wiper systems, controls and switches specifically designed for applications in commercial vehicle cabs.
Price Momentum -- 12 of the 13 Barchart technical indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. The stock appreciated 31.01% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 9 of the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- 2 analysts have buy recommendations released with sales predicted to increase 11.90% this year and 36.90% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 88.50% this year, 193.00% next year and continue on a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 57 to 32 with the All Stars voting 29 to 10.
WILLIAMS CONTROLS, INC. (WMCO ) is diversified manufacturer and distributor through its wholly operated subsidiaries, Williams Controls Industries, Inc.; Kenco Williams, Inc.; NESC Williams, Inc.; Williams Technologies, Inc. and Williams World Trade, Inc. Co.'s operations are divided into four industry segments. Heavy Vehicle Components: Co.'s heavy vehicle component product lines include electronic throttles, exhaust brakes and pneumatic and hydraulic controls. These products are used in applications which include heavy vehicles, utility and off- highway equipment, transit buses and mining machines.
Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal a 96% buy rating. The stock has appreciated 14.91% in the last 30 days and hit 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- Just 1 buy with sales expected to increase by 12.10% this year and 40.20% next. The big news is a prediction that earning per share will increase 100.00% this year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool Caps members are high on this stock with a vote of 55 to 1 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 7 to 0.
Modine ( MOD ) operates primarily in a single industry consisting of the manufacture and sale of heat transfer equipment. This includes heat exchangers for cooling all types of engines, transmissions, auxiliary hydraulic equipment, air conditioning components used in cars, trucks, farm and construction machinery and equipment, and heating and cooling equipment for residential and commercial building HVAC (heating, ventilating, air conditioning and refrigeration equipment).
Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators say buy. The stock appreciated 22.72% in the last 30 days and hit 11 new highs in the last 20 sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- There are 2 buy recommendations based on a predicted turn around. Sales are expected to contract this year but increase by 10.10% next year. They feel an earnings improvement is the story with an EPS increase of 89.30% this year, 180.00% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of 12.00% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- CAPS members think the stock will beat the market with a 53 to 15 vote and the All Stars vote 25 to 5.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company ( CTB ) specializes in the manufacture and marketing of automotive products. Products for Cooper's Tire Group include automotive, motorcycle and truck tires, inner tubes, tread rubber and equipment. In the Automotive Group, Cooper is an original equipment supplier of sealing, trim, NVH control systems and fluid handling systems for the automotive industry in North America, Europe and South America.
Price Momentum -- 96% Barchart technical buy with buy signals from 12 of the 13 technical indicators. The stock has appreciated 9.68% in the last 30 days and hit 6 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations - 4 buys and 2 holds with sales expected to increase by 15.80% this year and 5.70% next year. A turnaround in earnings is forecated from a loss this year to increases of 4.80% next year and continuing for 5 years at a rate of 11.00% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- Fool CAPS members vote that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 159 to 53 and the All Stars agree 60 to 10.
LKQ Corp ( LKQX ) is the largest nationwide provider of recycled OEM automotive replacement parts and related services, with sales and processing facilities and redistribution centers that reach most major markets in the United States.
Price Momentum - 12 of 13 of Barchart's indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. A 30 day price appreciation of 7.19% includes 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendation -- Analysts are high on this stock with 8 buy and 5 holds released. Sales are predicted to increase 12.30% this year and 8.90% next year. Earnings are expected to be a solid increase of 19.30% this year, 17.10% next year and keep up a 5 year compounded growth rate of 17.59% per year.
I hope you've found this snapshot view of these 6 companies as useful to you. If you like this approach let's hear from you and we'll do it again.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned at the time of publication
It was not his brilliance or the hard work of his management team that turned GM around it was the benevolence of the American taxpayers and consumers, plus a little luck from the problems experienced by Toyota that made all his new sales possible.
Mister Whitacre, my mom always told me that whenever someone does you a favor it would be very rude not to say "Thank you". Since you forgot to say "Thank you", I bet your mom is embarrassed.
I started thinking that if the auto industry is turning around maybe there might be some auto suppliers that might have recent price appreciation and glowing recommendations from Wall Street so I did a little screening and came up with a few that might make sense to consider for your portfolios.
When I look at an industry to mine for gems I usually use 3 yard sticks to get a feel of the likelihood that a stock will increase. The yard sticks are:
- Technical Price Momentum -- Barchart
- Wall Street Recommendations -- Yahoo Finance
- Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool
It's not a perfect system but if you find stocks that are having positive price momentum and then verify that Wall Street looks for increased sales and earnings and the general public has an interest in the stock, then you are not flying totally blind.
Dorman Products ( DORM ) is a leading supplier of OE Dealer `Exclusive` automotive replacement parts, automotive hardware, brake products, and household hardware to the Automotive Aftermarket and Mass Merchandise markets. Dorman automotive parts and hardware are marketed under the OE Solutions, HELP, AutoGrade, First Stop, Conduct-Tite, Pik-A-Nut and Scan-Tech brand names.Price Momentum - 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy for a 100% technical buy rating. The stock appreciated 30.54% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 8 of the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations - Only BB&T follows the stock and rates it a buy. They look for a 9.60% increase in sales this year and a 6.20% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 12.20% this year and 14.50% next year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members vote 120 to 5 that the stock will beat the market with the more experienced All Stars voting 40 to 0.
Commercial Vehicle Group ( CVGI ) supplies interior systems, vision safety solutions and other cab-related products for the global commercial vehicle market, including the heavy-duty (Class 8) truck market, the construction market and other specialized transportation markets. The company's products include suspension seat systems, interior trim systems, such as instrument and door panels, headliners, cabinetry and floor systems, mirrors, wiper systems, controls and switches specifically designed for applications in commercial vehicle cabs.
Price Momentum -- 12 of the 13 Barchart technical indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. The stock appreciated 31.01% in the last 30 days and hit new highs in 9 of the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- 2 analysts have buy recommendations released with sales predicted to increase 11.90% this year and 36.90% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 88.50% this year, 193.00% next year and continue on a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 57 to 32 with the All Stars voting 29 to 10.
WILLIAMS CONTROLS, INC. (WMCO ) is diversified manufacturer and distributor through its wholly operated subsidiaries, Williams Controls Industries, Inc.; Kenco Williams, Inc.; NESC Williams, Inc.; Williams Technologies, Inc. and Williams World Trade, Inc. Co.'s operations are divided into four industry segments. Heavy Vehicle Components: Co.'s heavy vehicle component product lines include electronic throttles, exhaust brakes and pneumatic and hydraulic controls. These products are used in applications which include heavy vehicles, utility and off- highway equipment, transit buses and mining machines.
Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal a 96% buy rating. The stock has appreciated 14.91% in the last 30 days and hit 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- Just 1 buy with sales expected to increase by 12.10% this year and 40.20% next. The big news is a prediction that earning per share will increase 100.00% this year.
Investor Sentiment -- Motley Fool Caps members are high on this stock with a vote of 55 to 1 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 7 to 0.
Modine ( MOD ) operates primarily in a single industry consisting of the manufacture and sale of heat transfer equipment. This includes heat exchangers for cooling all types of engines, transmissions, auxiliary hydraulic equipment, air conditioning components used in cars, trucks, farm and construction machinery and equipment, and heating and cooling equipment for residential and commercial building HVAC (heating, ventilating, air conditioning and refrigeration equipment).
Price Momentum -- 12 of 13 of Barchart's technical indicators say buy. The stock appreciated 22.72% in the last 30 days and hit 11 new highs in the last 20 sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations -- There are 2 buy recommendations based on a predicted turn around. Sales are expected to contract this year but increase by 10.10% next year. They feel an earnings improvement is the story with an EPS increase of 89.30% this year, 180.00% next year and continue for a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of 12.00% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- CAPS members think the stock will beat the market with a 53 to 15 vote and the All Stars vote 25 to 5.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company ( CTB ) specializes in the manufacture and marketing of automotive products. Products for Cooper's Tire Group include automotive, motorcycle and truck tires, inner tubes, tread rubber and equipment. In the Automotive Group, Cooper is an original equipment supplier of sealing, trim, NVH control systems and fluid handling systems for the automotive industry in North America, Europe and South America.
Price Momentum -- 96% Barchart technical buy with buy signals from 12 of the 13 technical indicators. The stock has appreciated 9.68% in the last 30 days and hit 6 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendations - 4 buys and 2 holds with sales expected to increase by 15.80% this year and 5.70% next year. A turnaround in earnings is forecated from a loss this year to increases of 4.80% next year and continuing for 5 years at a rate of 11.00% per year.
Investor Sentiment -- Fool CAPS members vote that the stock will beat the market by a vote of 159 to 53 and the All Stars agree 60 to 10.
LKQ Corp ( LKQX ) is the largest nationwide provider of recycled OEM automotive replacement parts and related services, with sales and processing facilities and redistribution centers that reach most major markets in the United States.
Price Momentum - 12 of 13 of Barchart's indicators signal buy for a 96% buy rating. A 30 day price appreciation of 7.19% includes 10 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions.
Wall Street Recommendation -- Analysts are high on this stock with 8 buy and 5 holds released. Sales are predicted to increase 12.30% this year and 8.90% next year. Earnings are expected to be a solid increase of 19.30% this year, 17.10% next year and keep up a 5 year compounded growth rate of 17.59% per year.
I hope you've found this snapshot view of these 6 companies as useful to you. If you like this approach let's hear from you and we'll do it again.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned at the time of publication
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Leggett Platt, Inc -- LEG
Financial Tides likes Leggett & Platt, Inc. ( LEG ) one of the leading manufacturers of engineered products serving several major markets. Sales and production are focused on residential furnishings, commercial furnishings, aluminum products, industrial materials, and specialized products. The company has facilities throughout North America and in numerous international locations.
The company cut costs, exited unprofitable lines of business and repurchased stock to improve it's financial strength. With a very strong financial position, the company is expected to continue increasing it's dividend as it has done for over 39 years.
Technical price momentum -- The stock has a buy signal on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators. The stock hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and also in 4 of the last 5 sessions. In the last 30 days the stock has appreciated 12.96%. It trades around 24.39 with a 50 day moving average of 21.29.
Wall Street buy recommendations - Analysts have 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations released and expect increased sales and earnings. Sales are estimated to increase 9.90% this year followed by 5.9o% next year. Earnings per share predictions are terrific with expected increases in EPS of 67.70% this year , 24.20% next year and maintain a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of over 15.00% a year.
Positive investor sentiment -- Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think this stock will beat the market by a vote of 119 to 42. The All Stars also vote positively by a vote of 46 to 11.
If you're looking for a financially strong balance sheet and income statement, recent price momentum, a Wall Street following plus positive investor sentiment look at Legget Platt Inc (LEG).
Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure : No position in LEG at the time of publication
The company cut costs, exited unprofitable lines of business and repurchased stock to improve it's financial strength. With a very strong financial position, the company is expected to continue increasing it's dividend as it has done for over 39 years.
Technical price momentum -- The stock has a buy signal on all 13 of Barchart's technical indicators. The stock hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and also in 4 of the last 5 sessions. In the last 30 days the stock has appreciated 12.96%. It trades around 24.39 with a 50 day moving average of 21.29.
Wall Street buy recommendations - Analysts have 3 buy and 3 hold recommendations released and expect increased sales and earnings. Sales are estimated to increase 9.90% this year followed by 5.9o% next year. Earnings per share predictions are terrific with expected increases in EPS of 67.70% this year , 24.20% next year and maintain a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth rate of over 15.00% a year.
Positive investor sentiment -- Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members think this stock will beat the market by a vote of 119 to 42. The All Stars also vote positively by a vote of 46 to 11.
If you're looking for a financially strong balance sheet and income statement, recent price momentum, a Wall Street following plus positive investor sentiment look at Legget Platt Inc (LEG).
Jim Van Meerten is a investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure : No position in LEG at the time of publication
Cummins Inc-- CMI just keeps on truckin'
Financial Tides picks Cummins Inc. (CMI) one of the leading worldwide designers and manufacturers of diesel engines. The company also produces natural gas engines and engine components and subsystems. Cummins provides power and components for a wide variety of equipment in its key businesses: engine, power generation, and filtration.
Recent changes in emissions regulations at the EPA have given the company's new high efficiency engines a sales advantage. New sales agreements in Brazil, China and especially with Tata in India will give the company an opportunity for new sales growth for at least the next 5 years.
Technical indicators from Barchart:
Recent changes in emissions regulations at the EPA have given the company's new high efficiency engines a sales advantage. New sales agreements in Brazil, China and especially with Tata in India will give the company an opportunity for new sales growth for at least the next 5 years.
Technical indicators from Barchart:
- 100% Barchart technical buy signal
- New highs in 11 of the last 20 trading sessions plus 4 in the recent 5
- 17.91% price appreciation in the last 30 days
- Trades around 73.53 with a 50 day moving average of 62.42
Increased sales and earnings predicted:
- Analysts have released 10 buy and 7 hold recommendations
- Sales predicted to increase 4.80% this year and 18.70% next year
- Earnings forecasted to increase 2.40% this year, 64.70% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded rate of EPS growth of 12% per year
Very high investor sentiment:
- Motley Fool CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 914 to 51
- The All Stars agree with a vote of 233 to 8
The stock meets all of my investment criteria:
- Recent and consistent upward price momentum
- 100% Barchart technical buy signal
- Positive press and investor sentiment
- Wall Street predicting increased sales and earnings.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: no positions in CMI at the time of publication
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Autodesk -- ADSK -- Looks strong
Autodesk ( ADSK) is one of the world's leading design software and digital content companies for architectural design and land development, manufacturing, utilities, telecommunications, and media and entertainment. Autodesk provides design software, Internet portal services, wireless development platforms, and point-of-location applications that empower customers in numerous countries to drive business and remain competitive. This is a very financially strong company and should benefit for increased technology spending when the economy turns around.
Barchart has given this stock a 100% technical buy rating and gets a buy signal from all 13 technical indicators. The stock hit 15 new highs in 20 sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. In the last month the stock has enjoyed an 18.14% appreciation in price. The stock trades around 34.85 with a 50 day moving average of 29.67
Analysts predict increases in sales of 2.20% this year and 6.40% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to increase by 14.10% this year, 27.40% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 15.37% annually.
Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with a vote of 713 to 52 that the stock will beat the market with the experienced All Stars in agreement 292 to 8. The Wall Street journalists Fool follows have given 16 positive articles.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: no position in ADSk at the time of publication
Barchart has given this stock a 100% technical buy rating and gets a buy signal from all 13 technical indicators. The stock hit 15 new highs in 20 sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. In the last month the stock has enjoyed an 18.14% appreciation in price. The stock trades around 34.85 with a 50 day moving average of 29.67
Analysts predict increases in sales of 2.20% this year and 6.40% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to increase by 14.10% this year, 27.40% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 15.37% annually.
Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with a vote of 713 to 52 that the stock will beat the market with the experienced All Stars in agreement 292 to 8. The Wall Street journalists Fool follows have given 16 positive articles.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: no position in ADSk at the time of publication
Monday, April 26, 2010
How about indictments instead of financial reform
I really get upset when people offer suggestions with no thought behind them. Everyone in Washington keeps insisting that to fix the financial markets we need more rules and regulations and a lot more bureaucracy. My idea is that all we need is for the alphabet soup to start doing their job.
Investing in publicly traded companies should be a level playing field. We should all be able to read an annual report, other public filings or press releases and narrow our investments to companies that are having real increases in their sales and earnings. The problem is the alphabet soup did not do their job. Financial statements and press releases were worthless.
Who is the alphabet soup? I'm talking about CEOs, CFOs, CPAs, CFAs, SEC and of course S&P. All these people had a fiduciary responsibility to make sure that the press releases and public filings on publicly traded companies fairly represented the true financial results of the companies they were responsible for.
Over the weekend it was reported that a Moody's analyst and a Merrill Lynch investment banker exchanged emails that negotiated fees and the resultant ratings of securities. Higher ratings and higher fees should not be negotiated. A higher fee for a higher rating is a bribe in my book. If this report is true I think the prosecutors at the SEC should be sending out some applications to become a cell mate for Bernie Madoff.
Any of the alphabet soup that traded their fiduciary responsibility to the investing public for financial gain whether it be a higher salary, more profitable stock options, higher fees or continued employment needs to lose their jobs and receive an indictment. What they have done was not negligence it was out right fraud.
I don't want another committee or more rules, I want the current rules to be enforced. Those that broke them need to go to jail.
Mr. President, you can't give back to the investors the money they lost so how about some satisfaction of knowing that if you broke the rules you will be prosecuted and jailed. Send out the warning. Let's see some pink slips at the SEC and some indictments sent to the rest of the alphabet soup.
On a lighter note in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio I dumped Huntsman (HUN) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 day moving average and replaced it with Franklin Electric (FELE). They make submersible pumps and lately have had positive price action. Analysts are predicting not only increased sales but EPS growth of 34.10% this year, 20.20% next year and 14.00% for the next 5 years.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned
Investing in publicly traded companies should be a level playing field. We should all be able to read an annual report, other public filings or press releases and narrow our investments to companies that are having real increases in their sales and earnings. The problem is the alphabet soup did not do their job. Financial statements and press releases were worthless.
Who is the alphabet soup? I'm talking about CEOs, CFOs, CPAs, CFAs, SEC and of course S&P. All these people had a fiduciary responsibility to make sure that the press releases and public filings on publicly traded companies fairly represented the true financial results of the companies they were responsible for.
Over the weekend it was reported that a Moody's analyst and a Merrill Lynch investment banker exchanged emails that negotiated fees and the resultant ratings of securities. Higher ratings and higher fees should not be negotiated. A higher fee for a higher rating is a bribe in my book. If this report is true I think the prosecutors at the SEC should be sending out some applications to become a cell mate for Bernie Madoff.
Any of the alphabet soup that traded their fiduciary responsibility to the investing public for financial gain whether it be a higher salary, more profitable stock options, higher fees or continued employment needs to lose their jobs and receive an indictment. What they have done was not negligence it was out right fraud.
I don't want another committee or more rules, I want the current rules to be enforced. Those that broke them need to go to jail.
Mr. President, you can't give back to the investors the money they lost so how about some satisfaction of knowing that if you broke the rules you will be prosecuted and jailed. Send out the warning. Let's see some pink slips at the SEC and some indictments sent to the rest of the alphabet soup.
On a lighter note in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio I dumped Huntsman (HUN) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 day moving average and replaced it with Franklin Electric (FELE). They make submersible pumps and lately have had positive price action. Analysts are predicting not only increased sales but EPS growth of 34.10% this year, 20.20% next year and 14.00% for the next 5 years.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Weekly Market Report W/E 4/23
At the end of each week in Financial Tides, I like to clear my head of all the articles and newscasts that have clouded my vision during the week and look at just the facts. I use the data on Barchart to give me the 3 yard sticks to measure the market performance. Then I plan my strategy for the coming week.
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing
- Index up this week by 3.55% -- up for 3 months in a row
- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
- Hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 last week
- 7.21% price appreciation for this month
- 100% Barchart technical buy -- 13 of 13 technical buy signals
Barchart Market Momentum -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always better
- 20 DMA -- 77.90% closed above -- 68.30% last week -- 64.93% last month
- 50 DMA -- 85.01% closed above -- 83.15% last week -- 78.65% last month
- 100 DMA -- 86.21% closed above -- 83.86% last week -- 78.42% last month
Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ = bullish, 1.0 = neutral, below .99 = bearish -- Very bullish
- 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 2350/413 = 5.69
- 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1860/140 = 13.29
- 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 1664/106 = 15.70
Investment Strategy -- Since all 3 yard sticks are positive I'll continue to stay in the market. I'll cull stocks that don't close above their 50 DMA and replace them.
Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists who contribute to Top Stocks have a little friendly competition going over on Wall Street Survivor . I'm climbing out of the hole I was in and month to day I'm in first place with a 9.3% return just ahead of John Reese with a 5.15% return and we're both ahead of the S&P turning in a 4.09% return. We still have a full week to go this month so anything can happen.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do own positions in stocks mentioned in my blogs
Friday, April 23, 2010
Top blog post
About 5 years ago after 35 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds, closed end funds and ETFs rated top picks by others I decided I could do a better job myself. I was reading Forbes magazines Best of the Web and decided to take their recommendations. In that issue they recommended Marketocracy as one of the top stock market simulation games and Barchart as one of the easiest stock screeners to use.
Soon my funds were getting green stars from Marketocracy meaning that they were beating at least 75% of the other 100,000 plus portfolios rated by Marketocracy. I begin asking questions in the forums and found the M100 guys -- Those top 100 out of 100,000+ to be very honest and giving of their time. A few even encouraged me to enter a contest sponsored by Marketocracy, MSN Money Central and Investor Place Media called the Strategy Lab Open. The winner of the contest would get a chance to be in a Strategy Lab contest against some real professionals on MSN Money Central. I'm not sure how but I won that contest and began writing articles for Top Stocks.
I have since retired and now write on-line columns on Barchart, MSN Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Main Street Investors and my own blog Financial Tides teaching others how to pick and manage their own investments.
This month Marketocracy gave top recognition honors to 3 of my simulated Marketocracy portfolios. They named my Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten Speculative Fund -- (VMSPC) to their M100 . Per their press release: "M100 members have proven long term track records, and serve as the ambassadors of our top performing members. We have thousands of excellent investors who are beating the market, but only 100 make this list at any given time. These members receive many benefits for their participation in the m100, including free premium memberships, posting privileges on our forums, press opportunities, and cash. Marketocracy pays all m100 members based on the assets under management with our affiliate, Marketocracy Capital Management. "
They also compared simulated funds that had been in existence over 5 years against the top 50 mutual funds with 5 year track records. My Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten New High Fund (VMNHI) beat the #10 rated mutual fund, the Alger Speca A (SPECX) rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick . My fund was created in March of 2005 and has returned 76.36% since inception beating the S&P 500 return of 10.03% by 66.34%. Annualized results were 11.68% for (VMNHI) vs. 1.88% for the S&P 500 so I beat the benchmark by 9.81%. They also compared my VanMeerten S&P 600 Fund (VMSIX) and found that my return beat the #27 top rated 5 year return of Fidelity's Select Software (FSCSX) and rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick, My fund was created in November of 2004 and has returned 71.11% beating the 13.76% return of the S&P500 by 57.35%. The annualized rated of return of 10.44% beat the S&P 500 return of 2.41% by 8.03%.
What have I learned and how can you profit from my experience? When I was being interviewed as a finalist for the Strategy Lab Open Ken Kam made an observation. He said, " You trade a lot of stocks but seem to sell losers right away". I've found that is the key to investing. Learn how to cut your losses and let your profits run. Sounds simple but discipline wins over brains.
In the VMNHI fund:
Best Winners -- Chico's (CHS) 266.42%+ and Panti Computers (PTI) 249.20%+
Worst Losers -- Premcor (PCO) -100.00%- and Epic Energy (EPCC) -57.60%
In the VMSPC fund:
Best Winners -- Aixtron Akteingesellschaft (AIXG) 244.74%+ and Rural/Metro (RURL) 187.56%+
Worst Losers -- Elan Pharma (ELN) 69.26%- and Dollar Thrift Auto (DTG) 68.43% -
Anyone can pick stocks that beat the market. The key is knowing when to get out and preserve your profits. I formerly used a stop loss of 10% but found that too tight. I now use the 50 day moving average and seem comfortable with that. Please share your thoughts on stop losses in the comments section.
I'd like to thank Marketocracy for the recognitions and Barchart for the excellent stock screens.Please join me on my quest to beat the market by reading my blogs on Barchart, Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Mainstreet Investors and of course my own blog Financial Tides.
Soon my funds were getting green stars from Marketocracy meaning that they were beating at least 75% of the other 100,000 plus portfolios rated by Marketocracy. I begin asking questions in the forums and found the M100 guys -- Those top 100 out of 100,000+ to be very honest and giving of their time. A few even encouraged me to enter a contest sponsored by Marketocracy, MSN Money Central and Investor Place Media called the Strategy Lab Open. The winner of the contest would get a chance to be in a Strategy Lab contest against some real professionals on MSN Money Central. I'm not sure how but I won that contest and began writing articles for Top Stocks.
I have since retired and now write on-line columns on Barchart, MSN Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Main Street Investors and my own blog Financial Tides teaching others how to pick and manage their own investments.
This month Marketocracy gave top recognition honors to 3 of my simulated Marketocracy portfolios. They named my Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten Speculative Fund -- (VMSPC) to their M100 . Per their press release: "M100 members have proven long term track records, and serve as the ambassadors of our top performing members. We have thousands of excellent investors who are beating the market, but only 100 make this list at any given time. These members receive many benefits for their participation in the m100, including free premium memberships, posting privileges on our forums, press opportunities, and cash. Marketocracy pays all m100 members based on the assets under management with our affiliate, Marketocracy Capital Management. "
They also compared simulated funds that had been in existence over 5 years against the top 50 mutual funds with 5 year track records. My Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten New High Fund (VMNHI) beat the #10 rated mutual fund, the Alger Speca A (SPECX) rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick . My fund was created in March of 2005 and has returned 76.36% since inception beating the S&P 500 return of 10.03% by 66.34%. Annualized results were 11.68% for (VMNHI) vs. 1.88% for the S&P 500 so I beat the benchmark by 9.81%. They also compared my VanMeerten S&P 600 Fund (VMSIX) and found that my return beat the #27 top rated 5 year return of Fidelity's Select Software (FSCSX) and rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick, My fund was created in November of 2004 and has returned 71.11% beating the 13.76% return of the S&P500 by 57.35%. The annualized rated of return of 10.44% beat the S&P 500 return of 2.41% by 8.03%.
What have I learned and how can you profit from my experience? When I was being interviewed as a finalist for the Strategy Lab Open Ken Kam made an observation. He said, " You trade a lot of stocks but seem to sell losers right away". I've found that is the key to investing. Learn how to cut your losses and let your profits run. Sounds simple but discipline wins over brains.
In the VMNHI fund:
Best Winners -- Chico's (CHS) 266.42%+ and Panti Computers (PTI) 249.20%+
Worst Losers -- Premcor (PCO) -100.00%- and Epic Energy (EPCC) -57.60%
In the VMSPC fund:
Best Winners -- Aixtron Akteingesellschaft (AIXG) 244.74%+ and Rural/Metro (RURL) 187.56%+
Worst Losers -- Elan Pharma (ELN) 69.26%- and Dollar Thrift Auto (DTG) 68.43% -
Anyone can pick stocks that beat the market. The key is knowing when to get out and preserve your profits. I formerly used a stop loss of 10% but found that too tight. I now use the 50 day moving average and seem comfortable with that. Please share your thoughts on stop losses in the comments section.
I'd like to thank Marketocracy for the recognitions and Barchart for the excellent stock screens.Please join me on my quest to beat the market by reading my blogs on Barchart, Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Mainstreet Investors and of course my own blog Financial Tides.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Marketocracy Portfolio changes
I've got some changes to some of my Marketocracy portfolios:
VMFOR - this is a portfolio that restricts it's universe to stock in the S&P 400
Deleted -- NTY - NTYB inc. Failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA
Added:
CMG - Chipolte Mexican Grill - Barchart buy signals and posigtive price appreciation
PPDI - Pharma Product Dev - 96% Barchart buy signal plus positive prioce appreciation
HNI - Hni Corp -- 86% Barchart buy signal + posiitve price appreciation
BOH - Bank Of Hiawiaa = 88% Barchart buy signal + positve price appreciation
VMFIV -- this portfolio resticts itself to stock in the S&P 500
Added:
MAR - Marriot -- Barchart buy signal plus positive preice appreciation
SHW - Sherwin Willians - purely techi=nical buy signals from Barchart and positve price appreciation
VMSHT -- Before you jump to conclusion the "SHT" means "short", but I guess that's what a short fund is:
BIIB - Biogen Indec -- BArchar sell signals plus very negative price action
VMFOR - this is a portfolio that restricts it's universe to stock in the S&P 400
Deleted -- NTY - NTYB inc. Failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA
Added:
CMG - Chipolte Mexican Grill - Barchart buy signals and posigtive price appreciation
PPDI - Pharma Product Dev - 96% Barchart buy signal plus positive prioce appreciation
HNI - Hni Corp -- 86% Barchart buy signal + posiitve price appreciation
BOH - Bank Of Hiawiaa = 88% Barchart buy signal + positve price appreciation
VMFIV -- this portfolio resticts itself to stock in the S&P 500
Added:
MAR - Marriot -- Barchart buy signal plus positive preice appreciation
SHW - Sherwin Willians - purely techi=nical buy signals from Barchart and positve price appreciation
VMSHT -- Before you jump to conclusion the "SHT" means "short", but I guess that's what a short fund is:
BIIB - Biogen Indec -- BArchar sell signals plus very negative price action
Monday, April 19, 2010
My government scares me!
The Financial Tide has become the Red Tide. There was a line in the Pogo comic strip: " We have met the enemy....and he is us!" What scares me the most is that all this deficit spending that is going on at the local, state and federal level all has to come from the same pocket book -- mine! I was watching one of the Tea Bagger rallies on TV and a woman had a poster with the picture of a baby and the caption:" I'm only 6 hours old and I'm already $46,000 into debt"
Back in the first quarter of 2007 when the stock market was down and looking like it was going to continue downward for a while, I personally started cutting back. I moth-balled my credit cards and begin to use only my debit cards. If I didn't have the money, I didn't buy it. My government seems to have never gotten the word.
All I hear is how they are considering trimming next years budget. How about this years budget? I've asked my friends that work for "the Man" if they have been asked to cut back. They all say no. They have been told if it's budgeted go ahead and spend it.
Here in Charlotte we are talking about laying off teachers, police, firemen and EMTs but we are still going ahead with highway beautification projects, side walks and even a trolley to a mall that is in foreclosure because they were already budgeted. People are being let out of jail to keep costs at the courthouse down.
Hey you guys in government! Many are unemployed or under employed so income tax revenues are down. Retail spending is down so sales tax revenues are down. Property values are down, people are filing for downward reassessments and foreclosures up so property tax revenues will be down.
When will my government at all levels stop spending like a drunken sailor? Does anyone have the number of the local Tea Bagger chapter?
I'm not sure what I as an individual can do, but I've got to do something. That's my money they are spending. Wait a minute -- They are writing IOUs and signing your name and mine. Did you give permission for someone to sign IOUs for you, I know I didn't.
Can anyone in government give me a definition of "fiscal responsibility". Let's hear your ideas.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Back in the first quarter of 2007 when the stock market was down and looking like it was going to continue downward for a while, I personally started cutting back. I moth-balled my credit cards and begin to use only my debit cards. If I didn't have the money, I didn't buy it. My government seems to have never gotten the word.
All I hear is how they are considering trimming next years budget. How about this years budget? I've asked my friends that work for "the Man" if they have been asked to cut back. They all say no. They have been told if it's budgeted go ahead and spend it.
Here in Charlotte we are talking about laying off teachers, police, firemen and EMTs but we are still going ahead with highway beautification projects, side walks and even a trolley to a mall that is in foreclosure because they were already budgeted. People are being let out of jail to keep costs at the courthouse down.
Hey you guys in government! Many are unemployed or under employed so income tax revenues are down. Retail spending is down so sales tax revenues are down. Property values are down, people are filing for downward reassessments and foreclosures up so property tax revenues will be down.
When will my government at all levels stop spending like a drunken sailor? Does anyone have the number of the local Tea Bagger chapter?
I'm not sure what I as an individual can do, but I've got to do something. That's my money they are spending. Wait a minute -- They are writing IOUs and signing your name and mine. Did you give permission for someone to sign IOUs for you, I know I didn't.
Can anyone in government give me a definition of "fiscal responsibility". Let's hear your ideas.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
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