Autodesk ( ADSK) is one of the world's leading design software and digital content companies for architectural design and land development, manufacturing, utilities, telecommunications, and media and entertainment. Autodesk provides design software, Internet portal services, wireless development platforms, and point-of-location applications that empower customers in numerous countries to drive business and remain competitive. This is a very financially strong company and should benefit for increased technology spending when the economy turns around.
Barchart has given this stock a 100% technical buy rating and gets a buy signal from all 13 technical indicators. The stock hit 15 new highs in 20 sessions and was 4 for 5 recently. In the last month the stock has enjoyed an 18.14% appreciation in price. The stock trades around 34.85 with a 50 day moving average of 29.67
Analysts predict increases in sales of 2.20% this year and 6.40% next year. Earnings per share are estimated to increase by 14.10% this year, 27.40% next year and continue with a 5 year annual compounded growth rate of 15.37% annually.
Investor sentiment on Motley Fool is high with a vote of 713 to 52 that the stock will beat the market with the experienced All Stars in agreement 292 to 8. The Wall Street journalists Fool follows have given 16 positive articles.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: no position in ADSk at the time of publication
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
How about indictments instead of financial reform
I really get upset when people offer suggestions with no thought behind them. Everyone in Washington keeps insisting that to fix the financial markets we need more rules and regulations and a lot more bureaucracy. My idea is that all we need is for the alphabet soup to start doing their job.
Investing in publicly traded companies should be a level playing field. We should all be able to read an annual report, other public filings or press releases and narrow our investments to companies that are having real increases in their sales and earnings. The problem is the alphabet soup did not do their job. Financial statements and press releases were worthless.
Who is the alphabet soup? I'm talking about CEOs, CFOs, CPAs, CFAs, SEC and of course S&P. All these people had a fiduciary responsibility to make sure that the press releases and public filings on publicly traded companies fairly represented the true financial results of the companies they were responsible for.
Over the weekend it was reported that a Moody's analyst and a Merrill Lynch investment banker exchanged emails that negotiated fees and the resultant ratings of securities. Higher ratings and higher fees should not be negotiated. A higher fee for a higher rating is a bribe in my book. If this report is true I think the prosecutors at the SEC should be sending out some applications to become a cell mate for Bernie Madoff.
Any of the alphabet soup that traded their fiduciary responsibility to the investing public for financial gain whether it be a higher salary, more profitable stock options, higher fees or continued employment needs to lose their jobs and receive an indictment. What they have done was not negligence it was out right fraud.
I don't want another committee or more rules, I want the current rules to be enforced. Those that broke them need to go to jail.
Mr. President, you can't give back to the investors the money they lost so how about some satisfaction of knowing that if you broke the rules you will be prosecuted and jailed. Send out the warning. Let's see some pink slips at the SEC and some indictments sent to the rest of the alphabet soup.
On a lighter note in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio I dumped Huntsman (HUN) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 day moving average and replaced it with Franklin Electric (FELE). They make submersible pumps and lately have had positive price action. Analysts are predicting not only increased sales but EPS growth of 34.10% this year, 20.20% next year and 14.00% for the next 5 years.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned
Investing in publicly traded companies should be a level playing field. We should all be able to read an annual report, other public filings or press releases and narrow our investments to companies that are having real increases in their sales and earnings. The problem is the alphabet soup did not do their job. Financial statements and press releases were worthless.
Who is the alphabet soup? I'm talking about CEOs, CFOs, CPAs, CFAs, SEC and of course S&P. All these people had a fiduciary responsibility to make sure that the press releases and public filings on publicly traded companies fairly represented the true financial results of the companies they were responsible for.
Over the weekend it was reported that a Moody's analyst and a Merrill Lynch investment banker exchanged emails that negotiated fees and the resultant ratings of securities. Higher ratings and higher fees should not be negotiated. A higher fee for a higher rating is a bribe in my book. If this report is true I think the prosecutors at the SEC should be sending out some applications to become a cell mate for Bernie Madoff.
Any of the alphabet soup that traded their fiduciary responsibility to the investing public for financial gain whether it be a higher salary, more profitable stock options, higher fees or continued employment needs to lose their jobs and receive an indictment. What they have done was not negligence it was out right fraud.
I don't want another committee or more rules, I want the current rules to be enforced. Those that broke them need to go to jail.
Mr. President, you can't give back to the investors the money they lost so how about some satisfaction of knowing that if you broke the rules you will be prosecuted and jailed. Send out the warning. Let's see some pink slips at the SEC and some indictments sent to the rest of the alphabet soup.
On a lighter note in my Wall Street Survivor portfolio I dumped Huntsman (HUN) for failure to maintain a price above its 50 day moving average and replaced it with Franklin Electric (FELE). They make submersible pumps and lately have had positive price action. Analysts are predicting not only increased sales but EPS growth of 34.10% this year, 20.20% next year and 14.00% for the next 5 years.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Weekly Market Report W/E 4/23
At the end of each week in Financial Tides, I like to clear my head of all the articles and newscasts that have clouded my vision during the week and look at just the facts. I use the data on Barchart to give me the 3 yard sticks to measure the market performance. Then I plan my strategy for the coming week.
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it is broader than the S&P 500 or much narrower Dow 30 -- Still climbing
- Index up this week by 3.55% -- up for 3 months in a row
- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
- Hit new highs in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and was 5 for 5 last week
- 7.21% price appreciation for this month
- 100% Barchart technical buy -- 13 of 13 technical buy signals
Barchart Market Momentum -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always better
- 20 DMA -- 77.90% closed above -- 68.30% last week -- 64.93% last month
- 50 DMA -- 85.01% closed above -- 83.15% last week -- 78.65% last month
- 100 DMA -- 86.21% closed above -- 83.86% last week -- 78.42% last month
Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ = bullish, 1.0 = neutral, below .99 = bearish -- Very bullish
- 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 2350/413 = 5.69
- 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1860/140 = 13.29
- 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 1664/106 = 15.70
Investment Strategy -- Since all 3 yard sticks are positive I'll continue to stay in the market. I'll cull stocks that don't close above their 50 DMA and replace them.
Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists who contribute to Top Stocks have a little friendly competition going over on Wall Street Survivor . I'm climbing out of the hole I was in and month to day I'm in first place with a 9.3% return just ahead of John Reese with a 5.15% return and we're both ahead of the S&P turning in a 4.09% return. We still have a full week to go this month so anything can happen.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do own positions in stocks mentioned in my blogs
Friday, April 23, 2010
Top blog post
About 5 years ago after 35 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds, closed end funds and ETFs rated top picks by others I decided I could do a better job myself. I was reading Forbes magazines Best of the Web and decided to take their recommendations. In that issue they recommended Marketocracy as one of the top stock market simulation games and Barchart as one of the easiest stock screeners to use.
Soon my funds were getting green stars from Marketocracy meaning that they were beating at least 75% of the other 100,000 plus portfolios rated by Marketocracy. I begin asking questions in the forums and found the M100 guys -- Those top 100 out of 100,000+ to be very honest and giving of their time. A few even encouraged me to enter a contest sponsored by Marketocracy, MSN Money Central and Investor Place Media called the Strategy Lab Open. The winner of the contest would get a chance to be in a Strategy Lab contest against some real professionals on MSN Money Central. I'm not sure how but I won that contest and began writing articles for Top Stocks.
I have since retired and now write on-line columns on Barchart, MSN Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Main Street Investors and my own blog Financial Tides teaching others how to pick and manage their own investments.
This month Marketocracy gave top recognition honors to 3 of my simulated Marketocracy portfolios. They named my Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten Speculative Fund -- (VMSPC) to their M100 . Per their press release: "M100 members have proven long term track records, and serve as the ambassadors of our top performing members. We have thousands of excellent investors who are beating the market, but only 100 make this list at any given time. These members receive many benefits for their participation in the m100, including free premium memberships, posting privileges on our forums, press opportunities, and cash. Marketocracy pays all m100 members based on the assets under management with our affiliate, Marketocracy Capital Management. "
They also compared simulated funds that had been in existence over 5 years against the top 50 mutual funds with 5 year track records. My Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten New High Fund (VMNHI) beat the #10 rated mutual fund, the Alger Speca A (SPECX) rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick . My fund was created in March of 2005 and has returned 76.36% since inception beating the S&P 500 return of 10.03% by 66.34%. Annualized results were 11.68% for (VMNHI) vs. 1.88% for the S&P 500 so I beat the benchmark by 9.81%. They also compared my VanMeerten S&P 600 Fund (VMSIX) and found that my return beat the #27 top rated 5 year return of Fidelity's Select Software (FSCSX) and rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick, My fund was created in November of 2004 and has returned 71.11% beating the 13.76% return of the S&P500 by 57.35%. The annualized rated of return of 10.44% beat the S&P 500 return of 2.41% by 8.03%.
What have I learned and how can you profit from my experience? When I was being interviewed as a finalist for the Strategy Lab Open Ken Kam made an observation. He said, " You trade a lot of stocks but seem to sell losers right away". I've found that is the key to investing. Learn how to cut your losses and let your profits run. Sounds simple but discipline wins over brains.
In the VMNHI fund:
Best Winners -- Chico's (CHS) 266.42%+ and Panti Computers (PTI) 249.20%+
Worst Losers -- Premcor (PCO) -100.00%- and Epic Energy (EPCC) -57.60%
In the VMSPC fund:
Best Winners -- Aixtron Akteingesellschaft (AIXG) 244.74%+ and Rural/Metro (RURL) 187.56%+
Worst Losers -- Elan Pharma (ELN) 69.26%- and Dollar Thrift Auto (DTG) 68.43% -
Anyone can pick stocks that beat the market. The key is knowing when to get out and preserve your profits. I formerly used a stop loss of 10% but found that too tight. I now use the 50 day moving average and seem comfortable with that. Please share your thoughts on stop losses in the comments section.
I'd like to thank Marketocracy for the recognitions and Barchart for the excellent stock screens.Please join me on my quest to beat the market by reading my blogs on Barchart, Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Mainstreet Investors and of course my own blog Financial Tides.
Soon my funds were getting green stars from Marketocracy meaning that they were beating at least 75% of the other 100,000 plus portfolios rated by Marketocracy. I begin asking questions in the forums and found the M100 guys -- Those top 100 out of 100,000+ to be very honest and giving of their time. A few even encouraged me to enter a contest sponsored by Marketocracy, MSN Money Central and Investor Place Media called the Strategy Lab Open. The winner of the contest would get a chance to be in a Strategy Lab contest against some real professionals on MSN Money Central. I'm not sure how but I won that contest and began writing articles for Top Stocks.
I have since retired and now write on-line columns on Barchart, MSN Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Main Street Investors and my own blog Financial Tides teaching others how to pick and manage their own investments.
This month Marketocracy gave top recognition honors to 3 of my simulated Marketocracy portfolios. They named my Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten Speculative Fund -- (VMSPC) to their M100 . Per their press release: "M100 members have proven long term track records, and serve as the ambassadors of our top performing members. We have thousands of excellent investors who are beating the market, but only 100 make this list at any given time. These members receive many benefits for their participation in the m100, including free premium memberships, posting privileges on our forums, press opportunities, and cash. Marketocracy pays all m100 members based on the assets under management with our affiliate, Marketocracy Capital Management. "
They also compared simulated funds that had been in existence over 5 years against the top 50 mutual funds with 5 year track records. My Barchart -- Jim Van Meerten New High Fund (VMNHI) beat the #10 rated mutual fund, the Alger Speca A (SPECX) rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick . My fund was created in March of 2005 and has returned 76.36% since inception beating the S&P 500 return of 10.03% by 66.34%. Annualized results were 11.68% for (VMNHI) vs. 1.88% for the S&P 500 so I beat the benchmark by 9.81%. They also compared my VanMeerten S&P 600 Fund (VMSIX) and found that my return beat the #27 top rated 5 year return of Fidelity's Select Software (FSCSX) and rated by Morningstar as a 5 star 5 year pick, My fund was created in November of 2004 and has returned 71.11% beating the 13.76% return of the S&P500 by 57.35%. The annualized rated of return of 10.44% beat the S&P 500 return of 2.41% by 8.03%.
What have I learned and how can you profit from my experience? When I was being interviewed as a finalist for the Strategy Lab Open Ken Kam made an observation. He said, " You trade a lot of stocks but seem to sell losers right away". I've found that is the key to investing. Learn how to cut your losses and let your profits run. Sounds simple but discipline wins over brains.
In the VMNHI fund:
Best Winners -- Chico's (CHS) 266.42%+ and Panti Computers (PTI) 249.20%+
Worst Losers -- Premcor (PCO) -100.00%- and Epic Energy (EPCC) -57.60%
In the VMSPC fund:
Best Winners -- Aixtron Akteingesellschaft (AIXG) 244.74%+ and Rural/Metro (RURL) 187.56%+
Worst Losers -- Elan Pharma (ELN) 69.26%- and Dollar Thrift Auto (DTG) 68.43% -
Anyone can pick stocks that beat the market. The key is knowing when to get out and preserve your profits. I formerly used a stop loss of 10% but found that too tight. I now use the 50 day moving average and seem comfortable with that. Please share your thoughts on stop losses in the comments section.
I'd like to thank Marketocracy for the recognitions and Barchart for the excellent stock screens.Please join me on my quest to beat the market by reading my blogs on Barchart, Top Stocks, Seeking Alpha, Mainstreet Investors and of course my own blog Financial Tides.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Marketocracy Portfolio changes
I've got some changes to some of my Marketocracy portfolios:
VMFOR - this is a portfolio that restricts it's universe to stock in the S&P 400
Deleted -- NTY - NTYB inc. Failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA
Added:
CMG - Chipolte Mexican Grill - Barchart buy signals and posigtive price appreciation
PPDI - Pharma Product Dev - 96% Barchart buy signal plus positive prioce appreciation
HNI - Hni Corp -- 86% Barchart buy signal + posiitve price appreciation
BOH - Bank Of Hiawiaa = 88% Barchart buy signal + positve price appreciation
VMFIV -- this portfolio resticts itself to stock in the S&P 500
Added:
MAR - Marriot -- Barchart buy signal plus positive preice appreciation
SHW - Sherwin Willians - purely techi=nical buy signals from Barchart and positve price appreciation
VMSHT -- Before you jump to conclusion the "SHT" means "short", but I guess that's what a short fund is:
BIIB - Biogen Indec -- BArchar sell signals plus very negative price action
VMFOR - this is a portfolio that restricts it's universe to stock in the S&P 400
Deleted -- NTY - NTYB inc. Failure to maintain a price above its 50 DMA
Added:
CMG - Chipolte Mexican Grill - Barchart buy signals and posigtive price appreciation
PPDI - Pharma Product Dev - 96% Barchart buy signal plus positive prioce appreciation
HNI - Hni Corp -- 86% Barchart buy signal + posiitve price appreciation
BOH - Bank Of Hiawiaa = 88% Barchart buy signal + positve price appreciation
VMFIV -- this portfolio resticts itself to stock in the S&P 500
Added:
MAR - Marriot -- Barchart buy signal plus positive preice appreciation
SHW - Sherwin Willians - purely techi=nical buy signals from Barchart and positve price appreciation
VMSHT -- Before you jump to conclusion the "SHT" means "short", but I guess that's what a short fund is:
BIIB - Biogen Indec -- BArchar sell signals plus very negative price action
Monday, April 19, 2010
My government scares me!
The Financial Tide has become the Red Tide. There was a line in the Pogo comic strip: " We have met the enemy....and he is us!" What scares me the most is that all this deficit spending that is going on at the local, state and federal level all has to come from the same pocket book -- mine! I was watching one of the Tea Bagger rallies on TV and a woman had a poster with the picture of a baby and the caption:" I'm only 6 hours old and I'm already $46,000 into debt"
Back in the first quarter of 2007 when the stock market was down and looking like it was going to continue downward for a while, I personally started cutting back. I moth-balled my credit cards and begin to use only my debit cards. If I didn't have the money, I didn't buy it. My government seems to have never gotten the word.
All I hear is how they are considering trimming next years budget. How about this years budget? I've asked my friends that work for "the Man" if they have been asked to cut back. They all say no. They have been told if it's budgeted go ahead and spend it.
Here in Charlotte we are talking about laying off teachers, police, firemen and EMTs but we are still going ahead with highway beautification projects, side walks and even a trolley to a mall that is in foreclosure because they were already budgeted. People are being let out of jail to keep costs at the courthouse down.
Hey you guys in government! Many are unemployed or under employed so income tax revenues are down. Retail spending is down so sales tax revenues are down. Property values are down, people are filing for downward reassessments and foreclosures up so property tax revenues will be down.
When will my government at all levels stop spending like a drunken sailor? Does anyone have the number of the local Tea Bagger chapter?
I'm not sure what I as an individual can do, but I've got to do something. That's my money they are spending. Wait a minute -- They are writing IOUs and signing your name and mine. Did you give permission for someone to sign IOUs for you, I know I didn't.
Can anyone in government give me a definition of "fiscal responsibility". Let's hear your ideas.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Back in the first quarter of 2007 when the stock market was down and looking like it was going to continue downward for a while, I personally started cutting back. I moth-balled my credit cards and begin to use only my debit cards. If I didn't have the money, I didn't buy it. My government seems to have never gotten the word.
All I hear is how they are considering trimming next years budget. How about this years budget? I've asked my friends that work for "the Man" if they have been asked to cut back. They all say no. They have been told if it's budgeted go ahead and spend it.
Here in Charlotte we are talking about laying off teachers, police, firemen and EMTs but we are still going ahead with highway beautification projects, side walks and even a trolley to a mall that is in foreclosure because they were already budgeted. People are being let out of jail to keep costs at the courthouse down.
Hey you guys in government! Many are unemployed or under employed so income tax revenues are down. Retail spending is down so sales tax revenues are down. Property values are down, people are filing for downward reassessments and foreclosures up so property tax revenues will be down.
When will my government at all levels stop spending like a drunken sailor? Does anyone have the number of the local Tea Bagger chapter?
I'm not sure what I as an individual can do, but I've got to do something. That's my money they are spending. Wait a minute -- They are writing IOUs and signing your name and mine. Did you give permission for someone to sign IOUs for you, I know I didn't.
Can anyone in government give me a definition of "fiscal responsibility". Let's hear your ideas.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Weekly Market Report -- W/E 4/16
Each week end on Financial Tides we take time to forget all the TV and newsprint headlines and see what really happened in the market this week. Any of you old enough to remember Dragnet ? Sargent Friday would always say "Just the facts Ma'am" when anyone would ramble on. So let's go to Barchart and get just the facts. We use 3 different yard sticks to gauge the market because no single yardstick is perfect all the time.
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks -- Much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Index still positive
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks -- Much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Index still positive
- Index up on 4 of the last 5 days for a weekly gain of 1.17%
- Index up for the 4th week in a row
- Index up for the 3rd month in a row
- Barchart technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals
- Barchart technical rating of a 96% buy
- Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains over 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time periods -- Still over 50% closed above their DMAs
- 20 DMA -- 68.16% closed above this week -- 71.55% last week -- 80.95% last month
- 50 DMA -- 83.11% closed above this week -- 84.68% last week -- 82.82% last month
- 100 DMA -- 83.72% closed above this week -- 83.8.3% last week -- 82.74% last month
Ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all time periods
- 1 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1039/409 = 2.54
- 3 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 825/89 = 9.27
- 6 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 679/51 = 13.31
Investment Strategy -- Since the market still seems to be in an upward climb I'll continue to cull stocks that are not maintaining a price above their 50 day moving average and replace them until I see a market pull-back.
Wall Street Survivor Results -- The columnists on Top Stocks have a little friendly competition over on Wall Street Survivor. This month I got a lucky and have a 5.88% return so far compared to the S&P 500 return of 1.94%. The Motley Fool All-Stars are right on my heels with a return this month of 3.41%.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in the stocks mentioned
Friday, April 16, 2010
Marriott International -- MAR
A stock that has really been on fire is Marriott International, Inc. ( MAR ) which operates and franchises hotels under the Marriott, JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, Renaissance, Residence Inn, Courtyard, TownePlace Suites, Fairfield Inn, SpringHill Suites and Ramada International brand names; develops and operates vacation ownership resorts under the Marriott Vacation Club International, Horizons, The Ritz-Carlton Club and Marriott Grand Residence Club brands; operates Marriott Executive Apartments; provides furnished corporate housing through its Marriott ExecuStay division; and operates conference centers.
The stock has enjoyed a 18.90% price increase in the last month. In the last 20 trading sessions the stock increased on 19 days and this week was 5 for 5. A 96% Barchart technical buy rating was signaled with 12 of 13 technical indicators a buy.
Wall Street brokerages like it too with 9 buy and 9 hold ratings. Sales are expected to increase 3.2% this year and 6.5% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 2.2% this year plus 26.3% next year with a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10.08% for the next 5 years.
Investor sentiment is also high with investors voting 308 to 140 that the stock will out perform the market. Experienced investors agree 107 to 31.
As a side the last 19 articles about MAR have been favorable 18 to 1.
The stock trades at 34.02 with a 50 day moving average of 28.99.
The stock has my criteria:
The stock has enjoyed a 18.90% price increase in the last month. In the last 20 trading sessions the stock increased on 19 days and this week was 5 for 5. A 96% Barchart technical buy rating was signaled with 12 of 13 technical indicators a buy.
Wall Street brokerages like it too with 9 buy and 9 hold ratings. Sales are expected to increase 3.2% this year and 6.5% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 2.2% this year plus 26.3% next year with a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10.08% for the next 5 years.
Investor sentiment is also high with investors voting 308 to 140 that the stock will out perform the market. Experienced investors agree 107 to 31.
As a side the last 19 articles about MAR have been favorable 18 to 1.
The stock trades at 34.02 with a 50 day moving average of 28.99.
The stock has my criteria:
- New highs in 19 of the last 20 trading sessions
- Wall Street brokerages predicting increased sales and earnings with buy recommendations
- Positive investor sentiment
- Wall Street columnists giving the stock positive press
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Weekly market report -- W/E 4/09
On Financial Tides I just try to give you the facts not the hype. Another week has passed and the talking heads on the TV were as confusing as ever. Every hour it was a different story -- Oil is up that's why the market is down -- Oil is up that's why the stock market is up -- Since 1933 the market has been more up than down on the 3rd Tuesday of each week. Rather than just try to tell you what happened they over analyze and try to find some explanation no matter how lame. Let's be consistent and use our 3 yard sticks to see where we stand.
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the much narrower Dow 30
Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader than the S&P 500 or the much narrower Dow 30
- Index was up by 2.49% this week -- That make 3 weeks in a row and better yet 3 months in a row
- The Index closed on Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
- Index is up 5.60% in the last 30 days
- Barchart's 13 technical indicators all signal a buy for a 100% technical buy rating
Barchart Market Momentum -- contains 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stock closing above their own daily moving averages for various time frames -- Good numbers for all 3 time frames
- 20 DMA -- 71.77% closed above -- 64.69% did last week
- 50 DMA -- 84..82% closed above -- 82.52% did last week
- 100 DMA -- 84.04% closed above -- 81.58% did last week
Ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all 3 time frames
- 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 1520/336 = 4.52
- 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 1082/97 = 11.15
- 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 996/76 = 13.10
Investing Strategy -- All 3 yard sticks gave me very positive vibes. If one of my stocks fails to maintain a price above its 50 DMA I'll cull and replace it. This market seems to have solid legs at the present time.
Wall Street Survivor results -- The columnists for Top Stocks have a little friendly competition over on Wall Street Survivor. This month the S&P 500 has returned 1.87% so far. I'm in first place for the month at 5.15% just slightly ahead of the Motley Fool All Stars with a 2.42% return. John Reese also beat the bench mark with a 2.36% return.
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who write on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com
Disclosure: I do not own positions in the stock contained in my blogs.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Mining for gems in the leisure sector
All investors search for the "Holy Grail" of investing: an investment strategy that just can't miss. I know, I've been looking for it for over 40 years and haven't found it yet. I've had to change my strategy several times. I had a new idea recently and decided to try it out. I'd like to share it with you and see what you think.
Here's my idea: Find the sector ETF that is currently having the highest relative strength and try to hand pick the best stocks from that portfolio. It's the Willie Sutton Theory. Willie was a famous bank robber and was asked:"Why do you rob banks?" His reply: "Because that's where the money is!"
If as a group, these are the stocks performing the best then why not search for the gems in the mother lode?
This week the sector ETF having the best relative strength is the Power Share Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ). The fund is a mixture of stocks from restaurants, cruise lines, time shares, to Expedia (EXPE), Home Shopping Network (HSNI) and even the World Wrestling Federation Entertainment Inc. (WWE), a basket of discretionary income stocks. A real mixed bag and since they include the word "Dynamic" is guess this is an actively managed ETF.
I used Barchart to make up a sample portfolio of the top 25 stocks in the ETF to see how it would rate and to my surprise I had 22 buy, 1 hold and only 2 sell technical ratings. Every single stock had a positive price appreciation in the last 50 days.
The ETF had a 19.34% return in the last 50 days verses the S&P 500 return of 8.95%. 22 of the 25 stocks beat the Index. The best return was Home Shopping Network (HSNI) at 66.22% and the worst was Starbucks (SBUX) at 7.81% just slightly less than the benchmark.
What do you think? Can analysing the fastest rising sector ETFs for gems be a solid investment strategy or am I following a pipe dream like trying to find the Lost Dutchman's mine somewhere in the Superstition Mountains of Arizona?
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
Here's my idea: Find the sector ETF that is currently having the highest relative strength and try to hand pick the best stocks from that portfolio. It's the Willie Sutton Theory. Willie was a famous bank robber and was asked:"Why do you rob banks?" His reply: "Because that's where the money is!"
If as a group, these are the stocks performing the best then why not search for the gems in the mother lode?
This week the sector ETF having the best relative strength is the Power Share Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ). The fund is a mixture of stocks from restaurants, cruise lines, time shares, to Expedia (EXPE), Home Shopping Network (HSNI) and even the World Wrestling Federation Entertainment Inc. (WWE), a basket of discretionary income stocks. A real mixed bag and since they include the word "Dynamic" is guess this is an actively managed ETF.
I used Barchart to make up a sample portfolio of the top 25 stocks in the ETF to see how it would rate and to my surprise I had 22 buy, 1 hold and only 2 sell technical ratings. Every single stock had a positive price appreciation in the last 50 days.
The ETF had a 19.34% return in the last 50 days verses the S&P 500 return of 8.95%. 22 of the 25 stocks beat the Index. The best return was Home Shopping Network (HSNI) at 66.22% and the worst was Starbucks (SBUX) at 7.81% just slightly less than the benchmark.
What do you think? Can analysing the fastest rising sector ETFs for gems be a solid investment strategy or am I following a pipe dream like trying to find the Lost Dutchman's mine somewhere in the Superstition Mountains of Arizona?
Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Disclosure: I do not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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