OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (
ESZ13 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.01% and European stocks are down
-0.06% ahead of this morning's Nov ADP employment change that may help gauge the outlook for Fed stimulus. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan
-2.17%, Hong Kong
-0.76%, China +1.32%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia +0.34%, Singapore
-0.85%, South Korea
-1.27%, India
-0.70%. European stocks fell after Eurozone Oct retail sales unexpectedly declined, while China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 2
-1/2 month high led by companies linked to Shanghai's free-trade zone after the PBOC said it plans to implement reform measures for the area within three months. The Australian dollar slid to a 3-month low against the dollar after Australia Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.7% q/q. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (
CLF14 +1.25%) is up +1.28% at a 5-week high on expectations for weekly EIA crude stockpiles to decline along with carry-over support from TransCanada's decision to start the southern portion of its Keystone XL pipeline next month, which could reduce inventories at Cushing, OK, delivery point for WTI crude futures. Jan gasoline (
RBF14 -0.14%) is down
-0.11%. Feb gold (
GCG14 -0.64%) is down
-0.65% at a 5-month low on expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting stimulus. March copper (
HGH14 +0.24%) is up +0.21%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (
DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (
^EURUSD) is down
-0.02%. USD/JPY (
^USDJPY) is unch. March T-note prices (
ZNH14 -0.17%) are down
-7.5 ticks.
The German Nov PMI services index was revised up to 55.7 from the originally reported 54.5 and matched the Jan 2013 level as the fastest pace of expansion in 2
-1/3 years.
Eurozone Oct retail sales unexpectedly fell
-0.2% m/m and
-0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch m/m and +1.0% y/y.
Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.1% q/q and
-0.4% y/y.
The Eurozone Nov PMI composite index was revised up to 51.7 from the originally reported 51.5.
UK Nov PMI services fell
-2.5 to 60.0, a bigger decline than expectations of
-0.5 to 62.0.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Nov ADP employment change is expected to improve to +170,000 from the poor report of +130,000 seen in October. Today’s Oct new home sales report is expected to show a +2.1% increase to 430,000 from the August level of 421,000. Today’s Nov ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to show a
-0.4 point decline to 55.0, reversing part of October’s +1.0 point increase to 55.4. Today’s Oct U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow mildly to -$40.0 billion from -$41.8 billion in September. There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Brown-Forman (consensus $0.91), Synopsys (0.55), Guess (0.38), Avago Technologies (0.81).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen and Company Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, NASDAQ OMX International Investor Program on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Business Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Asia Derivatives Conference on Tue-Wed, Janney Industrials Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Express (
EXPR +0.94%) reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, below consensus of 25 cents.
Ross Stores (
ROST -1.93%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
AT&T (
T -0.17%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan.
eBay (
EBAY +1.13%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Evercore.
U.S. Bancorp (
USB -1.76%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Citigroup (
C -0.93%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Conviction Buy' at Goldman.
ComScore reported holiday season U.S. retail e-commerce spending from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, online buying from desktop computers totaled $5.3 billion, up 22% versus last year.
ESL Partners lowered its stake in Sears Holdings (
SHLD -7.72%) to 48.4% from 55.4%.
J.C. Penney (
JCP +1.00%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported November same-store-sales rose 10.1% y/y.
United Natural Foods (
UNFI -0.23%) reported Q1 EPS of 56 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (
ESZ13 -0.04%) this morning are up +0.25 of a point (+0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fell to a 1
-1/2 week low and closed lower. Stocks declined on (1) profit-taking after the recent rally in the S&P 500 to a record high on Friday, (2) concern that recent strength in the U.S. economic data will prompt the Fed to taper QE3 sooner rather than later, and (3) the warning from Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, that the unprecedented cash added to the financial system by central banks around the world is raising the risk of a slide in global asset prices. Closes: S&P 500
-0.32%, Dow Jones
-0.59%, Nasdaq 100
-0.05%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (
ZNH14 -0.17%) this morning are down
-7.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Tuesday closed higher as a slide in stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Gains were muted on expectations that the economy is strong enough to allow the Fed to cut back on its monthly asset purchases. Closes: TYH4 +7.50, FVH4 +5.00.
The dollar index (
DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.043 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (
^EURUSD) is down
-0.0003 (
-0.02%) and USD/JPY (
^USDJPY) is unch. The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower. Negative factors included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell back from a 6
-1/4 month high as weak stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, and (2) short-covering in EUR/USD which rose ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Closes: Dollar index
-0.30 (
-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.00476 (+0.35%), USD/JPY
-0.432 (
-0.42%).
Jan WTI crude oil (
CLF14 +1.25%) this morning is up +$1.23 a barrel (+1.28%) at a 5-week high and Jan gasoline (
RBF14 -0.14%) is down
-0.0029 (
-0.11%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher with Jan crude at a 1-month high. Bullish factors included (1) TransCanada’s announcement that it will begin operating the southern leg of its Keystone XL pipeline next month that will move 700,000 barrels a day of crude to Port Arthur, TX from Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, which will reduce Cushing’s oil inventories, and (2) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to decline by
-500,000 bbl, which would be the first decline since September. Closes: CLF4 +2.22 (+2.37%), RBF4 +0.0453 (+1.69%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/04/2013
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.3% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index +0.1%. |
| 0815 ET | Nov ADP employment change expected +170,000, Oct +130,000. |
| 0830 ET | Oct trade balance expected -$40.0 billion, Sep -$41.8 billion. |
| 1000 ET | Oct new home sales expected +2.1% to 430,000, Sep postponed, Aug +7.9% to 421,000. |
| 1000 ET | Nov ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.4 to 55.0, Oct +1.0 to 55.4. |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. |
| 1400 ET | Fed Beige Book. |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Nov PMI services, previous 54.5. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Nov PMI composite, previous 51.5. |
| 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Q3 GDP, previous +0.1% q/q and -0.4% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Oct retail sales expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Sep -0.6% m/m and +0.3% y/y. |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Nov PMI services expected -0.5 o 62.0, Oct 62.5. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/04/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 7:00 | November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 8:00 | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.905 |
| Unit Corp | UNT US | 8:30 | Investor Day | Y 2013 | |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | MPC US | 8:30 | Analyst Day | Y 2013 | |
| Yum! Brands Inc | YUM US | 8:45 | Investor & Analyst Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | 9:00 | Analyst Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | BF/B US | 10:00 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 | |
| Oracle Corp | ORCL US | 10:00 | Court of Appeals Hearing on Oracle vs. Google Patent-Infringement Case | | |
| Google Inc | GOOG US | 10:00 | Court of Appeals Hearing on Oracle vs. Google Patent-Infringement Case | | |
| Guess? Inc | GES US | 16:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Synopsys Inc | SNPS US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Avago Technologies Ltd | AVGO US | 17:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Synopsys Inc | SNPS US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.553 |
| Guess? Inc | GES US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.376 |
| Avago Technologies Ltd | AVGO US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.808 |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | | Annual General Meeting | | |
| Walgreen Co | WAG US | | November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| AutoNation Inc | AN US | | November 2013 Sales and Revenue Release | 2013 | |
| ACE Ltd | ACE US | | Investor Meeting - Day 3 | Y 2013 | |
| Ocwen Financial Corp | OCN US | | Analyst and Investor Meeting - Day 2 | Y 2013 | |
| Ameren Corp | AEE US | | Investor Meeting - Day 1 | Y 2013 | |
