Showing posts with label KRFT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KRFT. Show all posts

Thursday, July 2, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/2

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) are up +0.18% and European stocks are unchanged before the release of U.S. Jun payroll data. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said he would resign if his country votes in a referendum on Jul 5 to accept European Union bailout proposals. This signals that if Greece votes in favor of the referendum, it could lead to the collapse of the current Tsipras government and the possibility of new elections. Recent polls suggest the vote is too close to call. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.95%, Hong Kong +0.12%, China -3.48%, Taiwan +0.04%, Australia +1.53%, Singapore -0.10%, South Korea +0.17%, India -0.27%. Chinese stocks remain weak after the Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low as margin traders continue to liquidate losing stock positions. The Shanghai Composite has now fallen 24% from its 7-1/3 year high on June 12.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) is up +0.46%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +1.44%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.83%) is down -0.66% at a 3-month low on speculation today's U.S. Jun non-farm payroll data will support the prospects for a Fed interest rate increase. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.06%) is up +0.11%. Agricultural prices are mostly lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.16%) are down -4 ticks.
The ECB on Wednesday left the Emergency Liquidity Assistance that it grants to Greek banks unchanged at 88.6 billion euros, where it has remained since it was last increased on Jun 23. This signals the ECB will wait until the outcome of the Jul 5 referendum in Greece before it decides whether to increase funding to Greek banks or raise of lower the discounts imposed on collateral the Greek banks must use to obtain funds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) June non-farm payrolls (expected +230,000 after May's +280,000) and the June unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 5.4% after May's +0.1 to 5.5%), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 270,000 after last week's +3,000 to 271,000) and continuing claims (expected -11,000 to 2.236 million after last week's +22,000 to 2.247 million), (3) June New York ISM (May was -4.1 to 54.0), (4) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) USDA weekly Export Sales.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CME Group (CME +0.70%) reported that June contracts traded per day were up 15% y/y to 14.6 million.
HealthSouth (HLS +0.87%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at JMP Securities.
ConAgra (CAG +2.01%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Ryerson (RYI +5.49%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Kosmos (KOS -5.93%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Babcock & Wilcox (BW +2.05%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $25.
WestRock (WRK) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $73.
Regal Entertainment (RGC -0.53%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at B. Riley.
AstraZeneca (AZN +1.46%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
T-Mobile (TMUS -0.36%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $50.
AT&T (T +0.14%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $41.
Family Dollar (FDO +0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, below consensus of 82 cents.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece's government bond rating to Caa3 from Caa2 and placed the rating on review for further downgrade.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.18%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.69%, Dow Jones +0.79%, Nasdaq +0.74%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on (1) hopes for an eventual Greek bailout after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said he's willing to accept most of the Eurozone's reform demands, and (2) signs of U.S. economic strength after the Jun ADP employment rose by +237,000, stronger than expectations of +218,000, and the Jun ISM manufacturing index rose +0.7 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 53.2 and the fastest pace of expansion 5 months.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.16%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -22.50, FVU5 -12.50. Sep T-notes Wednesday closed lower on (1) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied on signs that Greece may be ready to accept creditor demands for a bailout, and (2) stronger-than-expected Jun ADP employment and Jun ISM manufacturing reports.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.035 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.34 (+0.28%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.825 (+0.86%), EUR/USD -0.00864 (-0.78%), USD/JPY +0.677 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP and ISM reports and fears of a "no" in Sunday's Greek referendum that would likely lead to Grexit.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.46%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +0.0289 (+1.44%). Wednesday's closes: CLQ5 -2.50 (-4.20%), RBQ5 -0.0364 (-1.78%). Aug crude oil and gasoline closed sharply lower on Wednesday with Aug crude at a 5-week low on the unexpected +2.39 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of a -2.5 million bbl decline and the first increase in 9 weeks. Gasoline prices found some underlying support after EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.76 million bbl to a 7-month low of 216.7 million bbl, a bigger decline than expectations of -250,000 bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/02/2015
US0830 ETJun non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, May +280,000. Jun private payrolls expected +225,000, May +262,000. Jun manufacturing payrolls expected +6,000, May +7,000. Jun unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.4%, May +0.1 to 5.5%.
0830 ETJun avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Jun avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.5 hours.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 270,000, previous +3,000 to 271,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 2.236 million, previous +22,000 to 2.247 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETJun New York ISM, May -4.1 to 54.0.
1000 ETMay factory orders expected -0.5%, Apr -0.4%. May factory orders ex-transportation, Apr unch.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion), and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jul 7-9.
UK0200 ETUK Jun nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +4.5% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +4.6% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jun Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.6 to 56.5, May 55.9.
EUR0500 ETEurozone May PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.0% y/y, Apr -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y.
JPN2135 ETJapan Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.6.
CHI2145 ETChina Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.2.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/02/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Freescale Semiconductor LtdFSL US9:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - New YorkY 2015
AutoNation IncAN USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Delta Air Lines IncDAL USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT USExtraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2015

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/25

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.06%) this morning are up +0.08% on increased M&A activity as Kraft Foods jumped 16% in early pre-market trading on news that it will merge with H.J. Heinz. European stocks are down -0.51% on Greek default concerns after the ECB banned Greek banks from increasing holdings of short-term government debt. The ECB has rationed the Greek central bank's access to emergency funding since last month on concern the Greek government is funding itself via domestic lenders with central bank cash. Eurozone finance officials will hold a call today to discuss progress on Greece, amid concerns that it may run out of cash by early next month. Losses in European stocks were limited after German business confidence rose for a fifth month in March to the highest in 8 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.17%, Hong Kong +0.53%, China -0.82%, Taiwan -0.66%, Australia +0.07%, Singapore +0.17%, South Korea -0.08%, India -0.18%. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK15 -0.29%) is down -0.13% and May gasoline (RBK15 +0.46%) is up +0.50%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.19%) is up +0.07%. May copper (HGK15 -0.59%) is down -0.62%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.42%) is down -0.30%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.52%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.15%) are up +3 ticks at a 1-1/2 month high after Chicago Fed President said inflation is too low to raise interest rates this year.
The German Mar IFO business climate rose +1.1 points to 107.9, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 107.3 and the highest in 8 months. The Mar IFO current assessment rose +0.7 to 112.0, right on expectations. The Mar IFO expectations rose +1.4 points to 103.9, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 103.0 and the highest in 9 months.
Chicago Fed President Evans said inflation remains too low to justify an interest rate increase this year, despite "terrific" progress in reducing U.S. unemployment. Evans said "he sees no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions until" it's clear that inflation will reach the Fed's 2.0% target within one or two years.
Japan Feb PPI services prices rose +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb durable goods orders report is expected to show an increase of +0.2% for both the headline and ex-transportation reports. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $35 billion of 5-year T-notes. There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Paychex (consensus $0.46), Red Hat (0.41), PVH (1.73), Leidos Holdings (0.49), Apollo Education (-0.16).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Excellence in Data Analytics for Shared Services and Outsourcing 2015 on Tue-Wed, Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) Spring Consumer Conference on Tue-Wed, Leerink Booth Tours At American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons on Wed-Thu, CIBC Real Estate Conference on Thu, Nomura - Conference: Global Chemicals Industry Leaders Conference - London on Thu, Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu, Gabelli Specialty Chemicals Conference on Thu.



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Kraft Foods Group (KRFT -1.27%) surged 16% in pre-market trading after saying it will merge with H.J. Heinz.
Starwood (HOT -2.28%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at SunTrust.
Tesla (TSLA +1.05%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Outperform' at CLSA.
Finish Line (FINL +0.41%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at B. Riley.
Leidos (LDOS -2.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 69 cents, higher than consensus of 48 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.20-$2.45, below consensus of $2.53.
Merck (MRK -0.17%) announced a new $10 billion share repurchase program.
ING Groep (ING +1.20%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Ultragenyx (RARE -2.65%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at CRT Capital with a price target of $90.
Cepheid (CPHD -2.08%) announced it has received Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA for Xpert Ebola, a molecular diagnostic test for Ebola Zaire Virus that delivers results in less than two hours.
Wells Fargo initiated United Rentals (URI +0.25%) with an 'Outperform' rating and a $110-$115 valuation range.
Steelcase (SCS -2.16%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 21 cents, better than consensus of 20 cents.
Park City Group (PCYG +0.57%) filed to sell 1 million shares of common stock.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 -0.06%) this morning areup +1.75 points (+0.08%) . Tuesday's Closes: S&P 500 -0.61%, Dow Jones -0.58%, Nasdaq -0.33%. The stock market on Tuesday closed lower after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb new home sales report (+7.8% to a 7-year high of 539,000) bolstered concern the Fed would soon raise interest rates. Another negative for stocks was the comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the Fed risks falling "behind the curve" on inflation if normalization of monetary policy is not started soon.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.15%) this morning are up +3 ticks at a new 1-1/2 month high. Tuesday's Closes: TYM5 +8.00, FVM5 +5.50. Jun T-notes posted a 1-1/2 month high on benign inflation pressures after U.S. Feb core CPI rose +1.7% y/y, right on expectations and below the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. T-notes received additional support in late afternoon after stocks sold-off.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.42%) this morning is down -0.289 (-0.30%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0057 (+0.52%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17 (-0.14%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar index +0.160 (+0.16%), EUR/USD -0.00212 (-0.19%), USD/JPY +0.025 (+0.02%). The dollar rebounded from a 2-week low and closed higher after U.S. Feb new home sales rose more than expected to the highest in 7 years, which bolsters expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates.
May WTI crude oil (CLK15 -0.29%) this morning is down -6 cents (-0.13%) and May gasoline (RBK15 +0.46%) is up +0.0090 (+0.50%). Tuesday's closes: CLK5 +0.06 (+0.13), RBK5 -0.0013 (-0.07%). May crude and gasoline posted 1-week highs but settled mixed after the dollar recovered from a 2-week low and closed higher. Gains in crude were limited on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories will increase by +4.75 million bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/25/2015
US0630 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks in London at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lectures on Monetary Policy and the Economy.
0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -3.9% with purchase sub-index -1.5% and refi sub-index -5.2%.
0830 ETFeb durable goods orders expected +0.2% and +0.2% ex transportation, Jan 2.8% and unch ex-transportation. Feb capital goods orders non-defense ex-aircraft expected +0.3%, Jan +0.5%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating rate notes.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
GER0500 ETGerman Mar IFO business climate expected +0.5 to 107.3, Feb 106.8. Mar IFO current assessment expected +0.7 to 112.0, Feb 111.3. Mar IFO expectations expected +0.5 to 103.0, Feb 102.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/25/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Paychex IncPAYX USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.462
Leidos Holdings IncLDOS US6:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.485
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL US7:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2015-0.163
Leidos Holdings IncLDOS US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Apollo Education Group IncAPOL US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
AGL Resources IncGAS US9:00Analyst DayY 2015
Paychex IncPAYX US9:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
American Express CoAXP US13:30Investor DayY 2015
Red Hat IncRHT US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
PVH CorpPVH USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.728
Red Hat IncRHT USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.406

Friday, February 13, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 2/13

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.12%) this morning are up +0.17% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.83% at a 6-1/2 year high after German Q4 GDP expanded +0.7% q/q, more than twice as much as forecast. Also, optimism has increased over Greek debt talks after government officials taking part in Greece's debt negotiations said both sides are signaling willingness to compromise. That sent the yield on Greece's 10-year bond falling to a 2-week low of 9.15% and fueled gains in Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bonds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.37%, Hong Kong +1.07%, China +0.78%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia +2.33%, Singapore +0.21%, South Korea +0.83%, India +1.01%. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-week high on signs of stronger credit growth after China Jan new yuan loans rose by the most in 5-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +1.19%) is up +1.46% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.45%) is up +1.07%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.31%) is up +0.28%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.04%) is up +0.17% at a 1-month high. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.15%) are down -6 ticks.
German Q4 GDP rose +0.7% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa), better than expectations of +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa).
The German Jan wholesale price index fell -0.4% m/m, the fourth straight monthly decline, and fell -2.6% y/y, the largest annual decrease in 5 years.
Eurozone Q4 GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
UK Dec construction output rose +0.4% m/m, less than expectations of +2.7% m/m, and on an annual basis rose +5.5% y/y, right on expectations.
China Jan new yuan loans totaled 1.47 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.35 trillion yuan and the most in 5-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s preliminary-Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.1 point increase to 98.2, adding to January’s sharp +4.5 point increase to an 11-year high of 98.1. Today’s Jan U.S. import price index is expected to fall sharply by -3.2% m/m and -8.9% y/y, which would be even weaker than December’s report of -2.5% m/m and -5.5% y/y. There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Excelon (consensus $0.50), JM Smucker (1.51), DTE Energy (1.04), Ventas (1.13), VF Corp (0.98), Interpublic (0.58). There are no equity conferences today.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CBS (CBS +1.80%) gained nearly 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 77 cents, more than consensus of 76 cents.
King Digital (KING +4.24%) soared over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, well aboove consensus of 47 cents.
Campbell Soup (CPB -0.23%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS outlook to $2.32-$2.38, less than consensus of $2.45.
ConAgra (CAG +0.69%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.13-$2.18, below consensus of $2.26.
Boyd Gaming (BYD +4.36%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0 cents, better than consensus of a -4 cent loss.
Regal Entertainment (RGC +0.14%) reported Q4 EPS of 30 cents, above consensus of 29 cents.
Shutterfly (SFLY +0.92%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.57, more than consensus of $2.51.
Kraft Foods (KRFT +1.69%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 73 cents.
DaVita (DVA +0.58%) reported Q4 continuing operations EPS of 96 cents, better than consensus of 89 cents.
AIG (AIG +0.38%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 97 cents, below consensus of $1.05.
Groupon (GRPN -1.58%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 6 cents, twice as much as consensus of 3 cents.
Columbia Sportswear (COLM +3.91%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, higher than consensus of 67 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.10-$2.20, above consensus of $2.07.
American Equity (AEL +0.56%) reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 54 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.12%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.17%) at a new record high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday jumped to a 6-week high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.96%, Dow Jones +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.18%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe after Russian President Putin said that a cease-fire had been agreed to in Ukraine, and (2) speculation that Greece was making progress on debt talks with its creditors, which eased Greek default concerns. Negatives for stocks include (1) the +24,000 increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims, more than expectations of +9,000, and (2) the +0.2% increase in U.S. Jan retail sales ex autos and gasoline, less than expectations of +0.4%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.15%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday recovered from a 5-week low and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 unch, FVH5 unch. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims, and (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jan retail sales. T-notes had opened lower on reduced safe-haven demand after geopolitical risks eased in Eastern Europe when a cease-fire was agreed upon in Ukraine.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18%. The dollar index on Thursday closed lower: Dollar index -0.891 (-0.94%), EUR/USD +0.00688 (+0.61%), USD/JPY -1.334 (-1.11%). Bearish factors included (1) the larger than expected increase in U.S, weekly jobless claims and the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Jan retail sales, which may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes, and (2) weakness in USD/JPY as the yen rallied on speculation the BOJ may not boost stimulus after people familiar with the talks said that BOJ policy makers view further monetary easing as a counterproductive step for now.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +1.19%)this morning is up +75 cents (+1.46%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.45%) is up +0.0171 (+1.07%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Thursday closed higher: CLH5 +2.37 (+4.85%), RBH5 +0.0523 (+3.39%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2 the rally in the S&P 500 to a 6-week high, which bolsters optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (3) concern that the ongoing strike by United Steelworkers union who represent employees at more than 200 refineries with 10% of U.S. refining output will start to curtail gasoline and distillate production.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/13/2015
US0830 ETJan import price index expected -3.2% m/m and -8.9% y/y, Dec -2.5% m/m and -5.5% y/y.
1000 ETPreliminary U.S. Feb University of Michigan consumer confidence expected unch at 98.1, Jan +4.5 to 98.1.
1330 ETDallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at a community luncheon in San Antonio.
GER0200 ETGerman Jan wholesale price index, Dec -1.0% m/m and -2.3% y/y.
0300 ETGerman Q4 GDP expected +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa), Q3 +0.1% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa).
UK0430 ETUK Dec construction output expected +2.7% m/m and +5.5% y/y, Nov -2.0% m/m and +3.6% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Q4 GDP expected +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y, Q3 +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
1315 ETECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaks at an event in London on Heading for stability and prosperity Bringing the Eurozone back on track.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR02/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Exelon CorpEXC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.499
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.511
DTE Energy CoDTE USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.043
Ventas IncVTR USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.134
VF CorpVFC US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.984
American International Group IncAIG US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Hasbro IncHAS US8:00Investor UpdateY 2015
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
VF CorpVFC US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/TheIPG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
DTE Energy CoDTE US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Assurant IncAIZ US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Micron Technology IncMU US10:00Analyst ConferenceY 2015
Ventas IncVTR US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Exelon CorpEXC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Mattel IncMAT US13:30Analyst Meeting - Toy FairY 2015
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/TheIPG USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.579

Thursday, October 30, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -0.43% ahead of U.S. Q3 GDP data that may show a slowdown in economic growth and European stocks are down -1.56% led by a slide in European bank stocks after the head of the Eurozone banking authority said that recent stress tests on banks weren't foolproof. European stocks fell even after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose and after German Oct unemployment unexpectedly declined. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.67%, Hong Kong -0.49%, China +0.72%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia +0.52%, Singapore +0.32%, South Korea +0.08%, India +0.92%. Japanese stocks closed higher, with the Nikkei Stock Index at a 3-week high, as exporters gained after the yen slipped to a 3-week low against the dollar, which boosts the earnings prospects of exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 year high on speculation that the proposed trading link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges will spur foreign inflows into Chinese stocks. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) is down -1.03%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.68%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.71%) is down -1.58%% at a 3-week low. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.32%) is down -1.30%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) is up +0.30% at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32% at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 3-week high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +2 ticks.
Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 100.7, better than expectations of -0.2 to 99.7. The Oct business climate indicator rose +0.03 to 0.05 from a downward revised 0.02 in Sep, right on expectations.
German Oct unemployment unexpectedly fell -22,000, better than expectations of a +4,000 increase and the biggest decline in 6 months. The Oct unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
UK Oct Lloyds business barometer fell -22 from Sep to 35, the lowest in 1-1/2 years.
UK Oct nationwide house prices rose +0.5% m/m and +9.0% y/y, better than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
Japan Sep vehicle production fell -2.6% y/y, an improvement from the -6.7% y/y decline in Aug, but the third straight monthly decline.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report to show a small +2,000 increase to 285,000 and for continuing claims to show a small +1,000 increase to 2.352 million. The market is expecting today’s first estimate for Q3 GDP growth to show an increase of +3.0% (q/q annualized). The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $108 billion T-note package.
There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: MasterCard (0.78), Xcel Energy (0.76), Marathon (2.29), CME Group (0.82), Time Warner (1.90), Johnson Controls (1.01), Kellog (0.92), Newmont Mining (0.16), Fluor (1.10), Starbucks (0.74), Expedia (1.74). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: GTEC (Government Technology Exhibition & Conference) 2014 on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.86, weaker than consensus of $1.90.
Level 3 (LVLT -0.93%) will replace Jabil Circuit (JBL -0.30%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on November 4.
CME Group (CME +0.61%) reported Q3 EPS of 84 cents, higher than consensus of 82 cents.
Avis Budget (CAR -0.23%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.91, better than consensus of $1.80.
Baidu (BIDU -1.93%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.90, well above consensus of $1.69.
Williams (WMB +3.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 15 cents, weaker than consensus of 19 cents.
Con-way (CNW -0.53%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, above consensus of 75 cents.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH +1.19%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.11, better than consensus of $1.08, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.28-$2.32, better than consensus of $2.26.
Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.59%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 78 cents, higher than consensus of 74 cents.
Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.52%) reported Q3 ex-items EPS of 55 cents, less than consensus of 56 cents.
Hanesbrands (HBI -0.15%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.73, above consensus of $1.68.
Allstate (ALL -0.40%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.39, higher than consensus of $1.33.
F5 Networks (FFIV -2.60%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.57, better than consensus of $1.48.
MetLife (MET +0.33%) reported Q3 operating EPS of $1.60, well above consensus of $1.38.
Visa (V -0.95%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.18, stronger than consensus of $2.10.
Century Aluminum (CENX -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $500.6 million was better than consensus of $488.64 million.
Akamai (AKAM -1.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 62 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL +1.21%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.24, better than consensus of $1.22.
Unum Group (UNM -0.20%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 87 cents, weaker than consensus of 90 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.43%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell back from a 1-month high and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.14%, Dow Jones -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.39%. The main bearish factor for stocks was the mildly hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement where the FOMC mentioned “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that risks to the economy and the job outlook are “nearly balanced.” Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied and (3) strong Q3 stock earnings results with about 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies having beaten earnings estimates.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday slid to a 2-week low and closed lower: TYZ4 -16.00, FVZ4 -15.50. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $108 billion of T-notes this week, and (2) the mildly hawkish post-FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) this morning is up +0.254 (+0.30%) at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0041 (-0.32%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.11%) at a 3-week high. The dollar index on Wednesday rallied to a 3-week high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.544 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0102 (-0.80%), USD/JPY +0.735 (+0.68%). The main bullish factor was mildly hawkish FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment, which increases the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) this morning is down -85 cents (-1.03%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.0148 (-0.68%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Closes: CLZ4 +0.78 (+0.96%), RBZ4 +0.0258 (+1.20%). Bullish factors included (1) the +2.06 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude supplies, less than expectations of +3.8 million bbl, and (2) the -1.24 million bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 23-month low of 203.14 million bbl, nearly double expectations of a -650,000 bbl draw.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2014
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +2,000 to 285,000, previous +17,000 to 283,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +1,000 to 2.352 million, previous 38,000 to 2.351 million.
0830 ETQ3 GDP expected +3.0% q/q annualized, Q2 +4.6%. Q3 personal consumption expected +1.9%, Q2 +2.5%. Q3 GDP price index expected +1.4%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 core PCE expected +1.4% q/q, Q2 +2.0% q/q.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETFed Chair Janet Yellen delivers welcoming remarks to the Fed Boards National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
JPN0000 ETJapan Sep vehicle production, Aug -6.7% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep jobless rate expected +0.1 to 3.6%. Sep job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.10.
1930 ETJapan Sep overall household spending expected -4.3% y/y, Aug -4.7% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep national CPI expected +3.3% y/y, Aug +3.3% y/y. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food expected +3.0% y/y, Aug +3.1% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.2% y/y, Aug +2.3% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Oct Tokyo CPI expected +2.7% y/y, Sep +2.9% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.5% y/y, Sep +2.6% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +2.0% y/y, Sep +2.0% y/y.
GER0455 ETGerman Oct unemployment change expected +4,000, Sep +12,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
0900 ETGerman Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Sep unch m/m and +0.8% y/y.
UK0300 ETUK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y, Sep -0.2% m/m and +9.4% y/y.
0530 ETUK Oct Lloyds business barometer, Sep 57.
2005 ETUK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected unch at -1.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Oct economic confidence expected -0.2 to 99.7, Sep 99.9. Oct business climate indicator expected 0.02 to 0.05, Sep 0.07.
0600 ETRevised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence, previous +0.3 to -11.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.755
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.614
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.285
BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.787
ConocoPhillipsCOP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.206
Avon Products IncAVP USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.164
Ball CorpBLL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.055
Allegion PLCALLE USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.641
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.842
Pitney Bowes IncPBI USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.46
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.052
SCANA CorpSCG USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.963
MasterCard IncMA USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.782
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.791
CME Group Inc/ILCME USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.823
Cigna CorpCI US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.825
Iron Mountain IncIRM US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.633
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.895
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US6:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.315
NiSource IncNI US6:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.159
Altria Group IncMO US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.68
American Tower CorpAMT US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.073
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.542
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US7:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.58
Cardinal Health IncCAH US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.959
Johnson Controls IncJCI US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.008
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.742
Invesco LtdIVZ US7:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.623
Pitney Bowes IncPBI US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US8:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.114
Kellogg CoK US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.921
MetLife IncMET US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Assurant IncAIZ US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Allegion PLCALLE US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cigna CorpCI US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Iron Mountain IncIRM US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Cardinal Health IncCAH US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Fidelity National Information Services IncFIS US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
CME Group Inc/ILCME US8:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
NiSource IncNI US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Altria Group IncMO US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Avon Products IncAVP US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Invesco LtdIVZ US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Noble Corp plcNE US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Unum GroupUNM US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
MasterCard IncMA US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
FMC CorpFMC US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
National Oilwell Varco IncNOV US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mosaic Co/TheMOS US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Allstate Corp/TheALL US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Range Resources CorpRRC US9:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Kellogg CoK US9:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Mattel IncMAT US9:30Analyst DayY 2014
Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Progressive Corp/ThePGR US10:00Investor Relations Conference Call
Lincoln National CorpLNC US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US10:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Ball CorpBLL US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Ensco PLCESV US11:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Harman International Industries IncHAR US11:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Johnson Controls IncJCI US11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
ConocoPhillipsCOP US12:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US12:00Q3 2014 Media Conference Call
Murphy Oil CorpMUR US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
SCANA CorpSCG US13:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Juniper Networks IncJNPR US13:00Investor DayY 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.382
Mylan Inc/PAMYL US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Republic Services IncRSG US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
PerkinElmer IncPKI US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Starbucks CorpSBUX US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US17:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.803
Mylan Inc/PAMYL USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.138
Newmont Mining CorpNEM USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.16
Fluor CorpFLR USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.096
Republic Services IncRSG USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.527
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.665
Crown Castle International CorpCCI USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.023
Mohawk Industries IncMHK USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.416
Public StoragePSA USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.064
Tesoro CorpTSO USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.16
PerkinElmer IncPKI USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.566
Starbucks CorpSBUX USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.743
Apartment Investment & Management CoAIV USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.513
Essex Property Trust IncESS USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.101
Expedia IncEXPE USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20141.742
Fluor CorpFLR US17:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USQ2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Computer Sciences CorpCSC USQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.013
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - ChicagoY 2014