Thursday, October 30th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -0.43% ahead of U.S. Q3 GDP data that may show a slowdown in economic growth and European stocks are down -1.56% led by a slide in European bank stocks after the head of the Eurozone banking authority said that recent stress tests on banks weren't foolproof. European stocks fell even after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose and after German Oct unemployment unexpectedly declined. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.67%, Hong Kong -0.49%, China +0.72%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia +0.52%, Singapore +0.32%, South Korea +0.08%, India +0.92%. Japanese stocks closed higher, with the Nikkei Stock Index at a 3-week high, as exporters gained after the yen slipped to a 3-week low against the dollar, which boosts the earnings prospects of exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 year high on speculation that the proposed trading link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges will spur foreign inflows into Chinese stocks. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Dec crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) is down -1.03%. Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.68%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.71%) is down -1.58%% at a 3-week low. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.32%) is down -1.30%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) is up +0.30% at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32% at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11% at a 3-week high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +2 ticks.Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 100.7, better than expectations of -0.2 to 99.7. The Oct business climate indicator rose +0.03 to 0.05 from a downward revised 0.02 in Sep, right on expectations.
German Oct unemployment unexpectedly fell -22,000, better than expectations of a +4,000 increase and the biggest decline in 6 months. The Oct unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
UK Oct Lloyds business barometer fell -22 from Sep to 35, the lowest in 1-1/2 years.
UK Oct nationwide house prices rose +0.5% m/m and +9.0% y/y, better than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y.
Japan Sep vehicle production fell -2.6% y/y, an improvement from the -6.7% y/y decline in Aug, but the third straight monthly decline.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report to show a small +2,000 increase to 285,000 and for continuing claims to show a small +1,000 increase to 2.352 million. The market is expecting today’s first estimate for Q3 GDP growth to show an increase of +3.0% (q/q annualized). The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $108 billion T-note package.There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: MasterCard (0.78), Xcel Energy (0.76), Marathon (2.29), CME Group (0.82), Time Warner (1.90), Johnson Controls (1.01), Kellog (0.92), Newmont Mining (0.16), Fluor (1.10), Starbucks (0.74), Expedia (1.74). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: GTEC (Government Technology Exhibition & Conference) 2014 on Tue-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Time Warner Cable (TWC +0.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.86, weaker than consensus of $1.90.Level 3 (LVLT -0.93%) will replace Jabil Circuit (JBL -0.30%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on November 4.
CME Group (CME +0.61%) reported Q3 EPS of 84 cents, higher than consensus of 82 cents.
Avis Budget (CAR -0.23%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.91, better than consensus of $1.80.
Baidu (BIDU -1.93%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.90, well above consensus of $1.69.
Williams (WMB +3.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 15 cents, weaker than consensus of 19 cents.
Con-way (CNW -0.53%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, above consensus of 75 cents.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH +1.19%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.11, better than consensus of $1.08, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS to $2.28-$2.32, better than consensus of $2.26.
Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.59%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 78 cents, higher than consensus of 74 cents.
Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.52%) reported Q3 ex-items EPS of 55 cents, less than consensus of 56 cents.
Hanesbrands (HBI -0.15%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.73, above consensus of $1.68.
Allstate (ALL -0.40%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.39, higher than consensus of $1.33.
F5 Networks (FFIV -2.60%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.57, better than consensus of $1.48.
MetLife (MET +0.33%) reported Q3 operating EPS of $1.60, well above consensus of $1.38.
Visa (V -0.95%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.18, stronger than consensus of $2.10.
Century Aluminum (CENX -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, right on consensus, although Q3 revenue of $500.6 million was better than consensus of $488.64 million.
Akamai (AKAM -1.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 62 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL +1.21%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.24, better than consensus of $1.22.
Unum Group (UNM -0.20%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 87 cents, weaker than consensus of 90 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.52%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.43%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell back from a 1-month high and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.14%, Dow Jones -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.39%. The main bearish factor for stocks was the mildly hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement where the FOMC mentioned “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that risks to the economy and the job outlook are “nearly balanced.” Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied and (3) strong Q3 stock earnings results with about 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies having beaten earnings estimates.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +2 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday slid to a 2-week low and closed lower: TYZ4 -16.00, FVZ4 -15.50. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $108 billion of T-notes this week, and (2) the mildly hawkish post-FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment and that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.31%) this morning is up +0.254 (+0.30%) at a 3-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0041 (-0.32%) at a 3-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.11%) at a 3-week high. The dollar index on Wednesday rallied to a 3-week high and closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.544 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0102 (-0.80%), USD/JPY +0.735 (+0.68%). The main bullish factor was mildly hawkish FOMC statement where the FOMC said it sees “solid job gains” with lower unemployment, which increases the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ14 -0.96%) this morning is down -85 cents (-1.03%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ14 -0.58%) is down -0.0148 (-0.68%). Dec crude and Dec gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Closes: CLZ4 +0.78 (+0.96%), RBZ4 +0.0258 (+1.20%). Bullish factors included (1) the +2.06 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude supplies, less than expectations of +3.8 million bbl, and (2) the -1.24 million bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories to a 23-month low of 203.14 million bbl, nearly double expectations of a -650,000 bbl draw.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2014
| US | 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +2,000 to 285,000, previous +17,000 to 283,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +1,000 to 2.352 million, previous 38,000 to 2.351 million. |
| 0830 ET | Q3 GDP expected +3.0% q/q annualized, Q2 +4.6%. Q3 personal consumption expected +1.9%, Q2 +2.5%. Q3 GDP price index expected +1.4%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 core PCE expected +1.4% q/q, Q2 +2.0% q/q. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 0900 ET | Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers welcoming remarks to the Fed Boards National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Sep vehicle production, Aug -6.7% y/y. |
| 1930 ET | Japan Sep jobless rate expected +0.1 to 3.6%. Sep job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.10. | |
| 1930 ET | Japan Sep overall household spending expected -4.3% y/y, Aug -4.7% y/y. | |
| 1930 ET | Japan Sep national CPI expected +3.3% y/y, Aug +3.3% y/y. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food expected +3.0% y/y, Aug +3.1% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy expected +2.2% y/y, Aug +2.3% y/y. | |
| 1930 ET | Japan Oct Tokyo CPI expected +2.7% y/y, Sep +2.9% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +2.5% y/y, Sep +2.6% y/y. Oct Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +2.0% y/y, Sep +2.0% y/y. | |
| GER | 0455 ET | German Oct unemployment change expected +4,000, Sep +12,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%. |
| 0900 ET | German Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Sep unch m/m and +0.8% y/y. | |
| UK | 0300 ET | UK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.3% m/m and +8.5% y/y, Sep -0.2% m/m and +9.4% y/y. |
| 0530 ET | UK Oct Lloyds business barometer, Sep 57. | |
| 2005 ET | UK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected unch at -1. | |
| EUR | 0600 ET | Eurozone Oct economic confidence expected -0.2 to 99.7, Sep 99.9. Oct business climate indicator expected 0.02 to 0.05, Sep 0.07. |
| 0600 ET | Revised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence, previous +0.3 to -11.1. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.755 |
| Air Products & Chemicals Inc | APD US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.614 |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | MPC US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.285 |
| BorgWarner Inc | BWA US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.787 |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.206 |
| Avon Products Inc | AVP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.164 |
| Ball Corp | BLL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.055 |
| Allegion PLC | ALLE US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.641 |
| L-3 Communications Holdings Inc | LLL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.842 |
| Pitney Bowes Inc | PBI US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.46 |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.052 |
| SCANA Corp | SCG US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.963 |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.782 |
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc | FIS US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.791 |
| CME Group Inc/IL | CME US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.823 |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 6:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.825 |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 6:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.633 |
| Time Warner Cable Inc | TWC US | 6:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.895 |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc | HST US | 6:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.315 |
| NiSource Inc | NI US | 6:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.159 |
| Altria Group Inc | MO US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.68 |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.073 |
| National Oilwell Varco Inc | NOV US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.542 |
| Mosaic Co/The | MOS US | 7:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.58 |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | 7:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 0.959 |
| Johnson Controls Inc | JCI US | 7:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.008 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 7:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.742 |
| Invesco Ltd | IVZ US | 7:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.623 |
| Pitney Bowes Inc | PBI US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 8:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Release | Q1 2015 | 1.114 |
| Kellogg Co | K US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.921 |
| MetLife Inc | MET US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Assurant Inc | AIZ US | 8:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Allegion PLC | ALLE US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Time Warner Cable Inc | TWC US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | 8:30 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Fidelity National Information Services Inc | FIS US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| CME Group Inc/IL | CME US | 8:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| NiSource Inc | NI US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Altria Group Inc | MO US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Avon Products Inc | AVP US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Invesco Ltd | IVZ US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Noble Corp plc | NE US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Unum Group | UNM US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| FMC Corp | FMC US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| National Oilwell Varco Inc | NOV US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Mosaic Co/The | MOS US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Allstate Corp/The | ALL US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Range Resources Corp | RRC US | 9:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| BorgWarner Inc | BWA US | 9:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Williams Cos Inc/The | WMB US | 9:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Kellogg Co | K US | 9:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Mattel Inc | MAT US | 9:30 | Analyst Day | Y 2014 | |
| Xcel Energy Inc | XEL US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Air Products & Chemicals Inc | APD US | 10:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | MPC US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Progressive Corp/The | PGR US | 10:00 | Investor Relations Conference Call | ||
| Lincoln National Corp | LNC US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc | HST US | 10:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Ball Corp | BLL US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| L-3 Communications Holdings Inc | LLL US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Ensco PLC | ESV US | 11:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 11:00 | Q1 2015 Earnings Call | Q1 2015 | |
| Johnson Controls Inc | JCI US | 11:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | 12:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 12:00 | Q3 2014 Media Conference Call | ||
| Murphy Oil Corp | MUR US | 13:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| SCANA Corp | SCG US | 13:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Juniper Networks Inc | JNPR US | 13:00 | Investor Day | Y 2014 | |
| Western Union Co/The | WU US | 16:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.382 |
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | 16:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Western Union Co/The | WU US | 16:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Expedia Inc | EXPE US | 16:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Republic Services Inc | RSG US | 17:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| PerkinElmer Inc | PKI US | 17:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Starbucks Corp | SBUX US | 17:00 | Q4 2014 Earnings Call | Q4 2014 | |
| Eastman Chemical Co | EMN US | 17:00 | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.803 |
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.138 |
| Newmont Mining Corp | NEM US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.16 |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.096 |
| Republic Services Inc | RSG US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.527 |
| Microchip Technology Inc | MCHP US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.665 |
| Crown Castle International Corp | CCI US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.023 |
| Mohawk Industries Inc | MHK US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.416 |
| Public Storage | PSA US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.064 |
| Tesoro Corp | TSO US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.16 |
| PerkinElmer Inc | PKI US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.566 |
| Starbucks Corp | SBUX US | Aft-mkt | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 0.743 |
| Apartment Investment & Management Co | AIV US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 0.513 |
| Essex Property Trust Inc | ESS US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 2.101 |
| Expedia Inc | EXPE US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2014 Earnings Release | Q3 2014 | 1.742 |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | 17:30 | Q3 2014 Earnings Call | Q3 2014 | |
| Microchip Technology Inc | MCHP US | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | ||
| Computer Sciences Corp | CSC US | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.013 | |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting - Chicago | Y 2014 |
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