BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/2

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, July 2nd, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) are up +0.18% and European stocks are unchanged before the release of U.S. Jun payroll data. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said he would resign if his country votes in a referendum on Jul 5 to accept European Union bailout proposals. This signals that if Greece votes in favor of the referendum, it could lead to the collapse of the current Tsipras government and the possibility of new elections. Recent polls suggest the vote is too close to call. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.95%, Hong Kong +0.12%, China -3.48%, Taiwan +0.04%, Australia +1.53%, Singapore -0.10%, South Korea +0.17%, India -0.27%. Chinese stocks remain weak after the Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low as margin traders continue to liquidate losing stock positions. The Shanghai Composite has now fallen 24% from its 7-1/3 year high on June 12.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) is up +0.46%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +1.44%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.83%) is down -0.66% at a 3-month low on speculation today's U.S. Jun non-farm payroll data will support the prospects for a Fed interest rate increase. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.06%) is up +0.11%. Agricultural prices are mostly lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.16%) are down -4 ticks.
The ECB on Wednesday left the Emergency Liquidity Assistance that it grants to Greek banks unchanged at 88.6 billion euros, where it has remained since it was last increased on Jun 23. This signals the ECB will wait until the outcome of the Jul 5 referendum in Greece before it decides whether to increase funding to Greek banks or raise of lower the discounts imposed on collateral the Greek banks must use to obtain funds.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) June non-farm payrolls (expected +230,000 after May's +280,000) and the June unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 5.4% after May's +0.1 to 5.5%), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 270,000 after last week's +3,000 to 271,000) and continuing claims (expected -11,000 to 2.236 million after last week's +22,000 to 2.247 million), (3) June New York ISM (May was -4.1 to 54.0), (4) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) USDA weekly Export Sales.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

CME Group (CME +0.70%) reported that June contracts traded per day were up 15% y/y to 14.6 million.
HealthSouth (HLS +0.87%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at JMP Securities.
ConAgra (CAG +2.01%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Ryerson (RYI +5.49%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Kosmos (KOS -5.93%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Babcock & Wilcox (BW +2.05%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $25.
WestRock (WRK) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $73.
Regal Entertainment (RGC -0.53%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at B. Riley.
AstraZeneca (AZN +1.46%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
T-Mobile (TMUS -0.36%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $50.
AT&T (T +0.14%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $41.
Family Dollar (FDO +0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, below consensus of 82 cents.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece's government bond rating to Caa3 from Caa2 and placed the rating on review for further downgrade.

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.18%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.69%, Dow Jones +0.79%, Nasdaq +0.74%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on (1) hopes for an eventual Greek bailout after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said he's willing to accept most of the Eurozone's reform demands, and (2) signs of U.S. economic strength after the Jun ADP employment rose by +237,000, stronger than expectations of +218,000, and the Jun ISM manufacturing index rose +0.7 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 53.2 and the fastest pace of expansion 5 months.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.16%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -22.50, FVU5 -12.50. Sep T-notes Wednesday closed lower on (1) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied on signs that Greece may be ready to accept creditor demands for a bailout, and (2) stronger-than-expected Jun ADP employment and Jun ISM manufacturing reports.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.035 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.34 (+0.28%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.825 (+0.86%), EUR/USD -0.00864 (-0.78%), USD/JPY +0.677 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP and ISM reports and fears of a "no" in Sunday's Greek referendum that would likely lead to Grexit.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.46%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +0.0289 (+1.44%). Wednesday's closes: CLQ5 -2.50 (-4.20%), RBQ5 -0.0364 (-1.78%). Aug crude oil and gasoline closed sharply lower on Wednesday with Aug crude at a 5-week low on the unexpected +2.39 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of a -2.5 million bbl decline and the first increase in 9 weeks. Gasoline prices found some underlying support after EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.76 million bbl to a 7-month low of 216.7 million bbl, a bigger decline than expectations of -250,000 bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/02/2015

US	0830 ET	Jun non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, May +280,000. Jun private payrolls expected +225,000, May +262,000. Jun manufacturing payrolls expected +6,000, May +7,000. Jun unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.4%, May +0.1 to 5.5%.
	0830 ET	Jun avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Jun avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.5 hours.
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 270,000, previous +3,000 to 271,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 2.236 million, previous +22,000 to 2.247 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0945 ET	Jun New York ISM, May -4.1 to 54.0.
	1000 ET	May factory orders expected -0.5%, Apr -0.4%. May factory orders ex-transportation, Apr unch.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion), and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jul 7-9.
UK	0200 ET	UK Jun nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +4.5% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +4.6% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jun Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.6 to 56.5, May 55.9.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone May PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.0% y/y, Apr -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y.
JPN	2135 ET	Japan Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.6.
CHI	2145 ET	China Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/02/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc	BBBY US	9:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Freescale Semiconductor Ltd	FSL US	9:00	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A Vote	Y 2015
Equifax Inc	EFX US		Investor Meeting - New York	Y 2015
AutoNation Inc	AN US		June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
Delta Air Lines Inc	DAL US		June 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results	2015
Kraft Foods Group Inc	KRFT US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2015