MORNING CALL 3/10

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Fri Mar 10, 6:34AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.38% and European stocks are up +0.81% at a 15-month high as strength in crude oil lifts energy producing stocks with Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ17 +0.69%) up +0.65%. Also, optimism that this morning's U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls report will show a strong increase of +200,000 jobs is boosting equity prices. European stocks received an added boost from German trade data that showed German Jan exports and import rose more than expected. The outlook for a strong U.S. payroll report has nearly cemented expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate hike next week and has undercut precious metals prices with Apr COMEX gold (GCJ17 -0.40%) down -0.52% and May COMEX silver (SIK17 -0.53%) down -0.83%, both at 1-1/4 month lows. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.48%, Hong Kong +0.29%, China -0.12%, Taiwan -0.32%, Australia +0.60%, Singapore +0.47%, South Korea +0.25%, India +0.06%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-week high as weakness in the yen boosted the earnings prospects of exporter stocks after USD/JPY rallied to a 1-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is up +0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.26%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.38% at a 1-1/2 month high.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 +0.01%) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.

The German Jan current account balance shrank to a surplus of +14.8 billion euros, narrower than expectations of +15.5 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 20 months.

German Q4 labor costs rose +1.5% q/q and +3.0% y/y with the +1.5% q/q gain the largest quarterly increase in 8 years.

The German Jan trade balance shrank to a surplus of +14.8 billion euros, narrower than expectations of +18.0 billion euros and the smallest surplus in a year. Jan exports rose +2.7% m/m, better than expectations of +2.0% m/m. Jan imports rose +3.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb non-farm payrolls (expected +200,000, Jan +227,000) and Feb unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 4.7%, Jan +0.1 to 4.8%), (2) Feb avg hourly earnings (expected +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y), (3) Feb monthly budget statement (expected -$187.5 billion, Jan +$51.257 billion).

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Vail Resorts (consensus $3.40).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: UBS Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Yum! Brands (YUM -0.42%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Evercore ISI.

FedEx (FDX -0.83%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Edward Jones.

VeriFone Systems (PAY +0.59%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted net revenue of $457 million, higher than consensus of $450 million, and said it sees Q2 adjusted net revenue of $470 million-$474 million, above the mid-point of consensus of $470.7 million.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA -0.62%) declined 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 net sales of $1.24 billion-$1.27 billion, below consensus of $1.28 billion.

Finisar (FNSR +1.60%) plunged 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 59 cents, below consensus of 62 cents, and said it sees Q4 adjusted EPS of 50 cents-56 cents, weaker than consensus of 58 cents.

Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.18%) sank over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 revenue of $178 million-$182 million, below consensus of $186 million.

Alere (ALR +0.42%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after a U.S. District Judge rejected the company's request for a temporary reversal of the Department of Health and Human Service's decision to cancel the Alere's ability to bill the government-run insurance program.

El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO -3.81%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees fiscal proforma EPS of 65 cents-69 cents, below consensus of 70 cents.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE -1.72%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 6.1 million shares of common stock.

Surgery Partners (SGRY -0.24%) tumbled 14% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 Ebitda up 10%-15% y/y, weaker than consensus of up 23% y/y.

Autobytel (ABTL -2.03%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, above consensus of 30 cents.

Cara Therapeutics (CARA +0.46%) fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 loss per share of -81 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -48 cents.

Freshpet (FRPT +3.68%) slipped 1% in after-hours trading after it said it will increase its investment in media this year, which is expected to lower 2017 adjusted Ebitda by 10%.

Ooma (OOMA -8.16%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary offering of 2.86 million shares.

Codexis (CDXS +9.52%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 revenue of $50 million-$53 million, better than consensus of $46.3 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.34%) this morning are up +9.00 points (+0.38%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.01%, Nasdaq +0.07%. The S&P 500 on Thursday recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher. Stocks received a boost from carry-over support from a rally in European stocks as the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 15-month high on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi who said that risks to growth are more balanced. Stocks were undercut by weakness in energy producers, which declined as crude oil prices tumbled -1.99% to a 3-1/4 month low.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Thursday's closes: TYM7 -10.00, FVM7 -5.25. Jun 10-year T-notes on Thursday fell to a 2-1/4 month low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a fall in German bund prices to a 1-month low after ECB President Draghi said the economic outlook in the Eurozone has improved. T-notes were also undercut by the larger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Feb import price index, which may prompt the Fed into a faster pace of interest rate hikes.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is up +0.02 (+0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.38%). Thursday's closes: Dollar index -0.22 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0036 (+0.34%), USD/JPY +0.60 (+0.52%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi that boosted EUR/USD when he said "the risks surrounding the euro-area economic outlook have become less pronounced." The dollar found underlying support as the 10-year T-note yield rise to a 2-1/2 month high, which boosts the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Apr WTI crude oil prices (CLJ17 +0.69%) this morning are up +32 cents (+0.65%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ17 +0.26%) is +0.0050 (+0.31%). Thursday's closes: Apr crude -1.00 (-1.99%), Apr gasoline -0.0283 (-1.71%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Thursday tumbled to 3-1/4 month lows and closed lower on fund selling on concern the global oil glut will persist after Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Al-Falih said that global oil inventories aren't draining as quickly as expected. There was also negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data that showed a +8.21 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a record 528.39 million bbl (well above expectations for a +2.0 million bbl gain), and the +0.6% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Mar 3 to 9.088 million bpd, a 1-year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/10/2017

		Friday, Mar 10
US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +200,000, Jan +227,000. Feb private payrolls expected +200,000, Jan +237,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Jan +5,000. Feb unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 4.7%, Jan +0.1 to 4.8%.
	0830 ET	Feb avg hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Feb avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.4 hours, Jan unch at 34.4 hours.
	1400 ET	Feb monthly budget statement expected -$187.5 billion, Jan +$51.257 billion.
		Monday, Mar 13
US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/10/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 17	3.396
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	08:00	Analyst Meeting
Regal Beloit Corp	RBC US	08:30	Investor Day
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	09:30	Investor Day
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 16
ON Semiconductor Corp	ON US	10:00	Analyst Day
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	11:30	Q2 2017 Earnings Call	Q2 17
HP Inc	HPQ US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Roadshow - Day 2

CCO, NYMT, TOW,FRPT AND MTW - BUY SIGNALS

Today I added 5 stocks to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum.  The stock added were:

Clear Channel Outdoors (CCO), New York Mortgage (NYMT), Two Harbors Investments (TWO), Freshpet (FRPT) and Manitowoc (MTW).

Clear Channel Outdoors (CCO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 15 new highs and up 37.61% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 70.51%
• Technical support level at 5.83
• Recently traded at 6.11 with a 50 day moving average of 4.86

New York Mortgage (NYMT)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy  signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 14.87% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 71.42%
• Technical support level at 5.51
• Recently traded at 5.64 with a 50 day moving average of 4.96

Two Harbors Investments (TWO)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 9.61% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 71.15%
• Technical support level at 8.31
• Recently trade at 8.44 with a 50 day moving average of 7.92

Freshpet (FRPT)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 72% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 13 new highs and up 20.22% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 60.31%
• Technical support level at 8.47
• Recently traded at 8.86 with a 50 day moving average of 7.76

Manitowoc (MTW)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 72% technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 12 new highs and up 22.34% in the last month
• Relative Strength Index 65.39%
• Technical support level at 5.70
• Recently traded at 5.86 with a 50 day moving average of 4.95

MORNING CALL 11/12

MORNING CALL

Thursday, November 12th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.05%) are up +0.02% ahead of speeches today by Fed Chair Yellen and several other FOMC members who are all expected to discuss monetary policy and may provide a clue as to the certainty of an interest rate hike next month. European stocks are down -0.55%, led by a 20% plunge in Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc after the company warned ifs 2016 profit may take a nearly $1 billion hit from lower demand for aircraft engines. Stocks also fell after ECB President Draghi warned that downside economic risks from global growth are "clearly visible." Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.03%, Hong Kong +2.40%, China -0.48%, Taiwan +0.16%, Australia +0.06%, Singapore -0.76%, South Korea -0.29%, India closed for holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index eked out a new 2-1/2 month high as USD/JPY remains near a 2-1/2 month high and the weak yen boosted Japanese exporters as their earnings prospects improve. China's Shanghai Composite closed lower after a gauge of new credit in China rose by the least in 15 months last month.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.29% on comments from ECB President Draghi that signal the ECB may expand stimulus. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.06%) are up +3 ticks.

ECB President Draghi signaled that he may step up stimulus measure when he said that "signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weakened" and that "downside risks stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible."

China Oct new yuan loans rose by 513.6 billion yuan, less than expectations of 800 billion yuan and the smallest gain in 15 months. Oct aggregate financing, the broadest measure of new credit, rose by 476.7 billion yuan, less than half expectations of 1.050 trillion yuan and also the smallest increase in 15 months.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -6,000 to 270,000, previous +6,000 to 276,000) and continuing claims (expected -8,000 to 2.155 million, previous +17,000 to 2.163 million), (2) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's speech on monetary policy at a conference hosted by the Caito Institute, (3) Fed Chair Janet Yellen's opening remarks at a Fed policy conference on “Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission in the Post-Crisis Period,” (4) Sep JOLTS job openings (expected +30,000 to 5.400 million, Aug -298,000 to 5.370 million), (5) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the National Communities Council Fall Leadership Forum, (6) New York Fed President William Dudley's speech on the economic outlook and what it means for monetary policy at an Economic Club of New York luncheon, (7) the Treasury's auction of $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (8) Oct monthly budget statement (expected -$130.00 billion, Sep +$91.06 billion), and (9) Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fisher's speech on incorporating financial stability into monetary policy at a conference hosted by the Fed Board.

There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Cisco (consensus $0.56), Viacom (1.55), Applied Materials (0.29), Helmerich & Payne (0.05), Advance Auto Parts (2.09), Kohl's (0.69), Nordstrom (0.72), Fossil Group (1.19).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Extended Stay Amercia (STAY), Mesoblast (MBLTY), Instructure Inc (INST), LoanDepot (LDI), American CareSource (GNOW).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Kohl's (KSS -5.35%) reported Q3 EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 69 cents.

Advanced Auto Parts (AAP +0.29%) reported Q3 EPDS of $1.95, below consensus of $2.09.

Viacom (VIAB +1.96%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.54, less than consensus of $1.55.

Helmerich & Payne (HP -5.31%) reported Q4 EPS of 4 cents, below consensus of 5 cents.

Flower Foods (FLO -1.19%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 23 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to 96 cents-98 cents from an Aug estimate of 96 cents-$1.01, below consensus of $1.00.

NetEase (NTES +2.01%) climbed 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net revenue of $1.05 billion, higher than consensus of $883.8 million.

NCR Corp. (NCR +0.26%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that Blackstone is near a deal to pay $800 million for a 15% stake in the company.

Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI -1.56%) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, better than consensus of 45 cents.

Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX -1.73%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it announced that it plans a 8 million-unit offering to fund its Pecten deal.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU +0.08%) reported that preliminary passenger revenue per available mile (PRASM) for the month of October fell -2% y/y.

IAC/InterActiveCorp offered to buy Angie's List (ANGI +1.02%) for $8.75 a share, a 10% premium to Wednesday's closing price of $7.92.

Freshpet (FRPT -4.99%) slumped over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 EPS loss of -5 cents, wider than consensus of a -3 cent loss, and then lowered its 2015 sales estimate to $115.5 million-$117 million from a previous estimate of $117 million-$119.5 million, below consensus of $118.4 million.

Mast Therapeutics (MSTX unch) vepoloxame drug to treat sickle cell disease may be on the market in the U.S. by 2017 and 2018 in Europe according to Maxim.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.05%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.02%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.32%, Dow Jones -0.32%, Nasdaq-0.10%. The S&P on Wednesday closed lower on weakness in retailers led by a 14% plunge in Macy's after it cut its profit forecast for this year. In addition, energy and commodity producers showed weakness after crude oil dropped to a 2-week low and copper sank to a 6-1/3 year low. Stocks found underlying support from reduced concern about China's economy after China Oct retail sales rose +11.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +10.9% y/y and the fastest pace of increase since Dec 2014. Stocks also found support from increased M&A activity after Anheuser-Busch InBev NV submitted a formal offer to buy SABMiller Plc for $107 billion.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.06%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ5 -7.50, FVZ5 -4.25. Dec T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said there's a "very strong case" for the Fed to raise interest rates if the economy continues to improve. T-notes also saw supply pressures before the Treasury auctions $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.157 (+0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0031 (-0.29%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.13%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.280 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.0019 (+0.18%), USD/JPY -0.29 (-0.24%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on strength in EUR/USD after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB is not committed to further easing at its December meeting and will decide based on economic data. In addition, ECB Governing Council member Hansson dampened speculation that the ECB might cut the deposit rate when it meets in December when he said there's no need for the ECB to cut policy rates at the moment.

Dec crude oil (CLZ15 -0.54%) this morning is down -7 cents (-0.16%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 -0.35%) is up +0.0017 (+0.13%). Wednesday's closes: CLZ5 -1.28 (-2.90%), RBZ5 -0.0296 (-2.17%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with Dec cruse at a 2-week low and Dec gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by Tuesday's late API data showing that U.S. crude supplies rose 6.3 million bbl last week. Crude oil prices were also hurt by comments from two unnamed OPEC delegates who said the cartel may consider raising its production target by +1.0 million bpd at the Dec 4 OPEC meeting to accommodate production from new OPEC member Indonesia.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/12/2015

US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -6,000 to 270,000, previous +6,000 to 276,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-8,000 to 2.155 million, previous +17,000 to 2.163 million.
	0915 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on monetary policy at a conference hosted by the Caito Institute.
	0930 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers opening remarks at a Fed policy conference on Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission in the Post-Crisis Period.
	1000 ET	Sep JOLTS job openings expected +30,000 to 5.400 million, Aug -298,000 to 5.370 million.
	1015 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the National Communities Council Fall Leadership Forum.
	1100 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned on Nov 19.
	1210 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the economic outlook and what it means for monetary policy at an Economic Club of New York luncheon.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year T-bonds.
	1400 ET	Oct monthly budget statement expected -$131.50 billion, Sep +$91.06 billion.
	1800 ET	Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fisher delivers a speech on incorporating financial stability into monetary policy at a conference hosted by the Fed Board.
GER	0200 ET	Revised German Oct CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +0.2% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Sep industrial production expected -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Aug -0.5% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
JPN	2330 ET	Revised Japan Sep industrial production, previous +1.0% m/m and -0.9% y/y. Sep capacity utilization, Aug 0.9% m/m.
	2330 ET	Japan Sep tertiary industry index expected +0.1% m/m, Aug +0.1% m/m.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/12/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Helmerich & Payne Inc	HP US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.051
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	2.086
Viacom Inc	VIAB US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	1.546
Kohl's Corp	KSS US	7:00	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.689
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	8:00	October 2015 Sales and Revenue Release	2015
F5 Networks Inc	FFIV US	8:00	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2015
Kohl's Corp	KSS US	8:30	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Viacom Inc	VIAB US	8:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The	EL US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Advance Auto Parts Inc	AAP US	10:00	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Helmerich & Payne Inc	HP US	11:00	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	11:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2015
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc	FOXA US	13:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
WW Grainger Inc	GWW US	14:00	October 2015 Sales and Revenue Call	2015
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO US	16:30	Q1 2016 Earnings Call	Q1 2016
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT US	16:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Fossil Group Inc	FOSL US	16:30	Q3 2015 Earnings Call	Q3 2015
Nordstrom Inc	JWN US	16:45	Q3 2016 Earnings Call	Q3 2016
Cisco Systems Inc	CSCO US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2016 Earnings Release	Q1 2016	0.564
Nordstrom Inc	JWN US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2016 Earnings Release	Q3 2016	0.723
Applied Materials Inc	AMAT US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.288
Fossil Group Inc	FOSL US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2015 Earnings Release	Q3 2015	1.187
United Parcel Service Inc	UPS US		Roadshow - Day9	Y 2015