MORNING CALL 3/10

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Fri Mar 10, 6:34AM CST

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.38% and European stocks are up +0.81% at a 15-month high as strength in crude oil lifts energy producing stocks with Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ17 +0.69%) up +0.65%. Also, optimism that this morning's U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls report will show a strong increase of +200,000 jobs is boosting equity prices. European stocks received an added boost from German trade data that showed German Jan exports and import rose more than expected. The outlook for a strong U.S. payroll report has nearly cemented expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate hike next week and has undercut precious metals prices with Apr COMEX gold (GCJ17 -0.40%) down -0.52% and May COMEX silver (SIK17 -0.53%) down -0.83%, both at 1-1/4 month lows. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +1.48%, Hong Kong +0.29%, China -0.12%, Taiwan -0.32%, Australia +0.60%, Singapore +0.47%, South Korea +0.25%, India +0.06%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-week high as weakness in the yen boosted the earnings prospects of exporter stocks after USD/JPY rallied to a 1-1/2 month high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is up +0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.26%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.38% at a 1-1/2 month high.

Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17 +0.01%) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.

The German Jan current account balance shrank to a surplus of +14.8 billion euros, narrower than expectations of +15.5 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 20 months.

German Q4 labor costs rose +1.5% q/q and +3.0% y/y with the +1.5% q/q gain the largest quarterly increase in 8 years.

The German Jan trade balance shrank to a surplus of +14.8 billion euros, narrower than expectations of +18.0 billion euros and the smallest surplus in a year. Jan exports rose +2.7% m/m, better than expectations of +2.0% m/m. Jan imports rose +3.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb non-farm payrolls (expected +200,000, Jan +227,000) and Feb unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 4.7%, Jan +0.1 to 4.8%), (2) Feb avg hourly earnings (expected +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y), (3) Feb monthly budget statement (expected -$187.5 billion, Jan +$51.257 billion).

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Vail Resorts (consensus $3.40).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences: UBS Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Yum! Brands (YUM -0.42%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Evercore ISI.

FedEx (FDX -0.83%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Edward Jones.

VeriFone Systems (PAY +0.59%) rose 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted net revenue of $457 million, higher than consensus of $450 million, and said it sees Q2 adjusted net revenue of $470 million-$474 million, above the mid-point of consensus of $470.7 million.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA -0.62%) declined 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 net sales of $1.24 billion-$1.27 billion, below consensus of $1.28 billion.

Finisar (FNSR +1.60%) plunged 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 59 cents, below consensus of 62 cents, and said it sees Q4 adjusted EPS of 50 cents-56 cents, weaker than consensus of 58 cents.

Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.18%) sank over 10% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 revenue of $178 million-$182 million, below consensus of $186 million.

Alere (ALR +0.42%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after a U.S. District Judge rejected the company's request for a temporary reversal of the Department of Health and Human Service's decision to cancel the Alere's ability to bill the government-run insurance program.

El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO -3.81%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after it said it sees fiscal proforma EPS of 65 cents-69 cents, below consensus of 70 cents.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE -1.72%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 6.1 million shares of common stock.

Surgery Partners (SGRY -0.24%) tumbled 14% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 Ebitda up 10%-15% y/y, weaker than consensus of up 23% y/y.

Autobytel (ABTL -2.03%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, above consensus of 30 cents.

Cara Therapeutics (CARA +0.46%) fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 loss per share of -81 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -48 cents.

Freshpet (FRPT +3.68%) slipped 1% in after-hours trading after it said it will increase its investment in media this year, which is expected to lower 2017 adjusted Ebitda by 10%.

Ooma (OOMA -8.16%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary offering of 2.86 million shares.

Codexis (CDXS +9.52%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2017 revenue of $50 million-$53 million, better than consensus of $46.3 million.

MARKET COMMENTS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 +0.34%) this morning are up +9.00 points (+0.38%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.01%, Nasdaq +0.07%. The S&P 500 on Thursday recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and closed higher. Stocks received a boost from carry-over support from a rally in European stocks as the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 15-month high on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi who said that risks to growth are more balanced. Stocks were undercut by weakness in energy producers, which declined as crude oil prices tumbled -1.99% to a 3-1/4 month low.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Thursday's closes: TYM7 -10.00, FVM7 -5.25. Jun 10-year T-notes on Thursday fell to a 2-1/4 month low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a fall in German bund prices to a 1-month low after ECB President Draghi said the economic outlook in the Eurozone has improved. T-notes were also undercut by the larger-than-expected increase in the U.S. Feb import price index, which may prompt the Fed into a faster pace of interest rate hikes.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is up +0.02 (+0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.26%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.38%). Thursday's closes: Dollar index -0.22 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0036 (+0.34%), USD/JPY +0.60 (+0.52%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi that boosted EUR/USD when he said "the risks surrounding the euro-area economic outlook have become less pronounced." The dollar found underlying support as the 10-year T-note yield rise to a 2-1/2 month high, which boosts the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Apr WTI crude oil prices (CLJ17 +0.69%) this morning are up +32 cents (+0.65%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ17 +0.26%) is +0.0050 (+0.31%). Thursday's closes: Apr crude -1.00 (-1.99%), Apr gasoline -0.0283 (-1.71%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Thursday tumbled to 3-1/4 month lows and closed lower on fund selling on concern the global oil glut will persist after Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Al-Falih said that global oil inventories aren't draining as quickly as expected. There was also negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data that showed a +8.21 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a record 528.39 million bbl (well above expectations for a +2.0 million bbl gain), and the +0.6% increase in U.S. crude production in the week of Mar 3 to 9.088 million bpd, a 1-year high.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/10/2017

		Friday, Mar 10
US	0830 ET	Feb non-farm payrolls expected +200,000, Jan +227,000. Feb private payrolls expected +200,000, Jan +237,000. Feb manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Jan +5,000. Feb unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 4.7%, Jan +0.1 to 4.8%.
	0830 ET	Feb avg hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Feb avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.4 hours, Jan unch at 34.4 hours.
	1400 ET	Feb monthly budget statement expected -$187.5 billion, Jan +$51.257 billion.
		Monday, Mar 13
US	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/10/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2017 Earnings Release	Q2 17	3.396
United Technologies Corp	UTX US	08:00	Analyst Meeting
Regal Beloit Corp	RBC US	08:30	Investor Day
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	09:30	Investor Day
Tahoe Resources Inc	THO CN	10:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Call	Q4 16
ON Semiconductor Corp	ON US	10:00	Analyst Day
Vail Resorts Inc	MTN US	11:30	Q2 2017 Earnings Call	Q2 17
HP Inc	HPQ US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
Xcel Energy Inc	XEL US		Roadshow - Day 2