MORNING CALL 1/19

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 3 minutes ago

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.08%) are down -0.08% and European stocks are down -0.09% ahead of the results of today's ECB meeting. The ECB is expected to keep its monthly asset purchases at 80 billion euros ($85 billion) until March, and then at 60 billion euros from April to December. The markets will also scour comments from ECB President Draghi about when the central bank may begin to taper QE at his press conference following today's ECB meeting. Metals prices are weaker with Feb COMEX gold (GCG17 -0.76%) down -0.82% and Mar COMEX copper (HGH17 -0.52%) down -0.59% at a 1-week low after comments yesterday from Fed Chair Yellen bolstered interest rate hike expectations when she said the U.S. economy is close to the Fed's objectives of full employment and stable prices. Stock losses were muted as energy producing companies gained with Mar WTI crude oil prices (CLH17 +1.21%) up +0.69% after the API late yesterday reported that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by -5.04 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.94%, Hong Kong -0.21%, China -0.38%, Taiwan -0.26%, Australia +0.24%, Singapore +0.27%, South Korea +0.23%, India +0.19%. Chinese stocks were led lower by losses in mining stocks with the slide in metals prices while Japanese stocks moved higher as strength in USD/JPY boosted exporter stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.32%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 -0.34%) are down -13.5 ticks at a 1-week low on continuation of weakness seen late yesterday after comments from Fed Chair Yellen bolstered the prospects for more Fed rate hikes.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +5,000 to 252,000, previous +10,000 to 247,000) and continuing claims (expected -12,000 to 2.075 million, previous -29,000 to 2.087 million), (2) Dec housing starts (expected +8.9% to 1.187 million, Nov 18.7% to 1.090 million), (3) Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook index (expected -4.9 to 15.1, Dec +11.0 to 19.7), (4) Treasury auctions $13 billion of 10-year TIPS, (5) Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

S&P 500 earnings reports today include: IBM (consensus $4.88), AMEX (0.99), Union Pacific (1.33), PPG Industries (1.18), BB&T (0.74), M&T Bank (2.04), JB Hunt (1.01), KeyCorp (0.29), Bank of NY Mellon (0.77), People's United Financial (0.24), Schlumberger (0.26), Skyworks Solutions (1.58).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Keane Group (FRAC).

Equity conferences: ACI Future of Polyolefins Summit on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Exxon Mobile (XOM -1.24%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS with a price target of $77.

Netflx (NFLX +0.28%) jumped over 7% in pre-market trading after it reported 1.93 million net streaming adds, higher than consensus of 1.45 million, and said it added 5.12 million new customers in international markets, above consensus of 3.78 million.

Under Armour (UAA -2.62%) was rated a new 'Buy' at CLSA with a price target of $37.

CSX Corp. (CSX -3.18%) rallied 8% in after-hours trading after the WSJ reported that outgoing CEO Hunter Harrison and activist investor Paul Hilal are finalizing a partnership and are set to target CSX.

Kinder Morgan (KMI -0.49%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $3.39 billion, below consensus of $3.53 billion.

Mondelex International (MDLZ +0.29%) rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading after Bega Cheese agreed to buy Mondelez's Australian grocery business for A$460 million.

Canadian Pacific Railway (CP -0.45%) lost 1% in after-hours trading after the company accelerated the retirement of CEO Hunter Harrison by about 6 months after he inquired about the possibility of working with other major freight railroads.

Rent-A-Center (RCII +1.39%) tumbled over 12% in after-hours trading after it said preliminary Q4 core comparable sales tumbled 14% and that it will have a Q4 loss per share of -20 cents to -30 cents, much weaker than consensus for EPS of 10 cents.

Zynerba Pharmaceuticals (ZYNE +15.18%) declined nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it announced a proposed public offering of common stock.

Oclaro (OCLR -0.61%) jumped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary Q2 revenue of $153.5 million-$154 million, better than consensus of $150.5 million.

PTC Inc. (PTC +0.04%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted revenue of $287.2 million, above consensus of $285.6 million.

Heron Therapeutics (HRTX -0.39%) dropped over 3% in after-hours trading after it proposed a $150 million public offering of common stock.

La Quinta Holdings (LQ +1.40%) gained almost 2% in after-hours trading after it said it will pursue plans to separate into two stand-alone publicly traded companies which could involve a spinoff of its real estate assets.

Plexus (PLXS +0.58%) slid over 2% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q2 revenue of $620 million-$650 million, below consensus of $658.7 million.

EP Energy (EPE -2.79%) dropped nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 -0.08%) this morning are down -1.75 points (-0.08%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones -0.11%, Nasdaq +0.22%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan (voter) who said he's "pretty optimistic" about the 2017 economic outlook. Stocks were also boosted by the +0.8% increase in U.S. Dec industrial production, stronger than expectations of +0.6% and the biggest increase in 2 years. Stocks were undercut by the -2 point decline in the U.S. Jan NAHB housing market index to 67 (weaker than expectations for a decline to 69) and by the +0.2% increase in U.S. Dec manufacturing production (weaker than expectations of +0.4%).

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 -0.34%) this morning are down -13.5 ticks at a 1-week low. Wednesday's closes: TYH7 -16.50, FVH7 -9.50. Mar 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on increased inflation expectations that bolster the case for tighter Fed policy after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-1/3 year high. T-notes were also undercut by comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan who said that stronger growth and structural reforms "would allow the Fed to more quickly normalize interest rates."

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.18 (+0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0034 (+0.32%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.06%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar index +0.98 (+0.98%), EUR/USD -0.0083 (-0.77%), USD/JPY +2.02 (+1.8%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan who said he's "pretty optimistic" about the 2017 economic outlook and on comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the U.S. economy is "close" to the Fed's objectives of full employment and stable prices.

Mar WTI crude oil prices (CLH17 +1.21%) this morning are up +36 cents (+0.69%) and Mar gasoline (RBH17 +0.61%) is +0.0034 (+0.22%). Wednesday's closes: Mar crude -1.37 (-2.57%), Mar gasoline -0.0454 (-2.79%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower with Mar gasoline at a 1-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and by comments from IEA Director Fatih Birol who said that the recent rally in oil prices will trigger a "significant" increase in U.S. shale-oil output.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/19/2017

		Thursday, Jan 19
US	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +5,000 to 252,000, previous +10,000 to 247,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -12,000 to 2.075 million, previous -29,000 to 2.087 million.
	0830 ET	Dec housing starts expected +8.9% to 1.187 million, Nov 18.7% to 1.090 million. Dec building permits expected +1.1% to 1.225 million, Nov -3.8% to 1.212 million.
	0830 ET	Jan Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -4.9 to 15.1, Dec +11.0 to 19.7.
	1100 ET	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $34 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $28 billion) to be auctioned Jan 24-26.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion of 10-year TIPS.
	2000 ET	Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
		Friday, Jan 20
US	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	0900 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks on the economic outlook at an event in New Jersey.
	n/a	President-elect Trumps swearing in ceremony begins.
	1300 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers closing remarks at the Bay Area Council meeting.
	1545 ET	San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) speaks at the Solano Economic Development Corporations Annual Luncheon meeting.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/19/2017

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
PPG Industries Inc	PPG US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.182
BB&T Corp	BBT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.739
M&T Bank Corp	MTB US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	2.036
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc	JBHT US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.01
KeyCorp	KEY US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.29
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The	BK US	6:30	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	0.772
Union Pacific Corp	UNP US	7:00	Q4 2016 Earnings Release	Q4 2016	1.329
Skyworks Solutions Inc	SWKS US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2017 Earnings Release	Q1 2017	1.582
DR Horton Inc	DHI US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/13

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, October 13th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.24%) rebounded upward from initial losses last night and are now trading slightly higher with a rally in European stocks this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 Index is up +0.51% this morning. Concerns about weak global economic growth continue but bullish factors this morning include the +15.3% y/y increase in Chinese Sep exports and supportive comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer that the Fed will delay a rate hike if weak foreign growth hurts the U.S. economy. Asian stocks today closed mostly lower: Hong Kong +0.24%, China CSI 300 index -0.48%, Taiwan -2.84%, Australia -0.63%, Singapore -0.67%, South Korea -0.36%, India +0.33%, Turkey +1.63%. The Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday. Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.31%) are sharply higher by +13 ticks. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.52%) is down -0.47% on technical selling while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.48% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27%.
Commodity prices are slightly higher by +0.10% this morning. Nov WTI (CLX14 -1.55%) crude oil is down -1.43% and Nov gasoline (RBX14 -1.75%) is down -1.60%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.52%) is up +0.46%, Dec silver (SIZ14 +0.82%) is up +0.76%, and Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.25%) is up +0.12%. Grain prices are narrowly mixed and softs are trading higher.
China's Sep exports rose by +15.3% y/y, stronger than market expectations of +12.0% and Aug's report of +9.4%. Chinese imports rose by +7.0% y/y, stronger than market expectations of -2.0% y/y and Aug's report of -2.4% y/y. China's Sep trade surplus of $30.94 billion was a little below market expectations of $41.1 billion and was down from Aug's surplus of $49.8 billion.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said at a weekend IMF meeting that “If foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise.”
The pro-democracy protests continue in Hong Kong with police today having to stop angry counter-protesters from attempting to break through barricades to halt the pro-democracy protests. Many of the counter-protesters were taxi and truck drivers and retailers who are losing business due to the protests. The Hong Kong government refuses to back down on the protesters' demand for the government to stop vetting candidates for Hong Kong's leadership vote.
Ebola fears grew over the weekend after a health care worker at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital contracted Ebola from contact with the Liberian man, Thomas Eric Duncan, who died from the disease last week. The health care worker followed the CDC safety protocols but nevertheless ended up contracting Ebola, the first time Ebola has ever been contracted within the borders of the United States.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today is a partial holiday with the U.S. stock markets open but with the banks and U.S. government closed.  None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.  Equity conferences this week include:  Bio Japan 2014 on Wed, Bloomberg Next Big Thing Summit: East on Thu, and 5th Annual Global Automotive Forum on Thu.

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.28% on support from higher European stocks, supportive weekend comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer, and the +15.3% y/y increase in Chinese Sep exports. The S&P 500 index on Friday fell sharply for the second consecutive session and posted a new 2-1/4 month low: S&P 500 -1.15%, Dow Jones -0.69%, Nasdaq -2.33%. The markets continue to fret about weak global economic growth after weak German reports earlier last week and with the FOMC minutes indicating that the Fed is worried about weak global economic growth.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

• NetScout Systems (NTCT -4.18%) will acquire Danaher's Communications business (DHR -1.25%) for $2.6 billi
• AB InBev (BUD +1.18%) has studied a potential deal to acquire PepsiCo (PEP +1.15%), according to Bloomberg.
• CSX (CSX -2.57%) was approached by Canadian Pacific (CP -4.96%) on a possible merger, according to WSJ.
• Deere (DE -0.21%) reported Sep US/Canada utility tractor sales were up more than 28%.
• General Electric ({=GE) could rally 25% over the next 12-18 month due to its industrial earnings, according to Barron's.
• Micron shares (MU -9.30%) look more attractive, according to Barron's, due to the recent 18% dip.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are sharply higher by +13 ticks on supportive comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer and on continued worries about weaker global economic growth. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday consolidated below Thursday’s contract high but still closed mildly higher. Closes: TYZ4 +3.5, FVZ4 +2. T-note prices continue to see support from weaker global economic growth, deferred expectations for Fed tightening, and increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in global stocks.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.41 points (-0.47%) as EUR/USD rallied +0.0060 (+0.48%) on an upward rebound in European stocks. USD/JPY is down -0.29 (-0.27%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower on some pre-weekend long liquidation pressure. Closes: Dollar index -0.102 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0005 (+0.04%), USD/JPY -0.30 (-0.28%). The dollar has run into some selling pressure after the sharp July-Sep rally, but continues to be underpinned by the relative strength of the U.S. economy against the European and Japanese economies.
Nov WTI crude oil this morning is down by another -1.23 (-1.43%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0361 (-1.60%) on continued concern about weaker global economic growth combined with the price war within OPEC. Nov crude and Nov gasoline prices on Friday closed mixed with Nov crude posting a new 1-1/2 year low and Nov gasoline posting a new 3-3/4 year low: CLX4 +0.05 (+0.06%), RBXX4 -0.0174 (-0.76%). Crude oil and gasoline prices continued to see downward pressure from worries about weaker global economic growth, which weakens fuel demand.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/13/2014

US	1230 ET	Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy to the National Council on Teacher Retirement conference in Indianapolis, IN.
	n/a	Columbus Day; government offices closed but stock exchanges open.
UK	0430 ET	UK Sep Lloyds employment confidence, Aug 6.
	1901 ET	UK Sep BRC sales like-for-like, Aug +1.3% y/y.
JPN	1950 ET	Japan Sep PPI expected -0.1% m/m and +3.6% y/y, Aug -0.2% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
	n/a	Japanese markets closed for Health-Sports Day holiday.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/13/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
salesforce.com inc	CRM US	17:00	Investment Community Meeting - Day 1	Y 2014

Canadian Pacific Railway - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The trans-continental railroad stock has a Trend spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 52.30+, and gained 48.07% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day is Canadian Pacific Railway (CP).  I found the stock by sorting today's New High List of new high frequency in the last month then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 4/22 the stock gained 15.90%.

Canadian Pacific Railway is North America's first transcontinental railway and is the only transcontinental carrier with direct service to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

• 96% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17 new highs and up 12.00% in the last month 
• Relative Strength Index 85.42%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 178.00
• Recently traded at 181.76 with a 50 day moving average of 159.93

Fundamental factors:

• Market Cap $31.93 billion
• P/E 27.78
• Dividend yield .70%
• Revenue expected to grow 7.60% this year and another 7.40% next year
• Earnings estimated to increase 32.60% this year, an additional 23.40% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 30.40% for the next 5 years
• Wall Street analysts issued 7 strong buy, 8 buy, 10 hold and only 1 sell recommendation on the stock

Is it too late to get on board this one?  I don't think so but watch those moving averages and exit at the 100 day moving average.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/5

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, June 5th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.08%) this morning are down -0.04% as prices consolidate gains following Wednesday’s rally to a record high. European stocks are up +0.16% on stronger-than-expected economic data on Eurozone Apr retail sales and German Apr factory orders. The markets also await the ECB interest rate announcement and the press conference by ECB President Draghi. The ECB is expected to cut the 2-week refinancing rate by -15 bp to 0.10% and cut the overnight ECB deposit rate by -10 bp to a negative -0.10%. The ECB will also update its forecasts on inflation and economic growth. As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark rate at 0.50% and held the asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds following its policy meeting. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.08%, Hong Kong -0.18%, China +1.05%, Taiwan +0.23%, Australia -0.15%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea -0.63%, India +0.86%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to its best level in 2 months as exporter stocks rallied after the yen Wednesday slid to a 1-month low against the dollar, which bolsters the earnings prospects of exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 -0.31%) is down -0.29%. July gasoline (RBN14 -0.11%) is down -0.09%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.15%) is up +0.06%. July copper (HGN14 -0.15%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.25%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.24%) are up +7 ticks.
Eurozone Apr retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.4% m/m, better than expectation of unch m/m and rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.2% y/y and the largest annual increase in 7 years.
German Apr factory orders rose +3.1% m/m and +6.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m and +4.6% y/y.
UK May Halifax house prices jumped +3.9% m/m, over five times expectations of +0.7% m/m and the biggest monthly gain in 1-1/2 years. Prices rose +8.7% 3-months y/y, better than expectations of +7.4% 3-months y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +10,000 to 310,000, reversing part of last week’s drop of -27,000 to 300,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -6,000 to 2.625 million, adding to last week’s -17,000 decline to 2.631 million. There are 6 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Cooper Companies (consensus $1.60), JM Smucker (1.17), Joy Global (0.71), Navistar (-1.27), Thor Industries (1.07), and VeriFone (0.33).
Equity conferences this week include: Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Mon-Thu, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts REITWeek Investor Forum on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Basic Materials Conference on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Engineering & Construction Conference on Thu, UBS Aerospace & Defense Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

JM Smucker (SJM -0.11%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.21, better than consensus of $1.17.
Verint Systems (VRNT +0.58%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Clovis (CLVS +0.44%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Citigroup keeps a 'Buy' rating on Canadian Pacific (CP +1.64%) and raises its price target on the stock to $205 from $190.
Joy Global (JOY -0.28%) reported Q2 EPS of 76 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.
T-Mobile (TMUS +0.23%) rose over 2% and Sprint (S -1.05%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that the companies were close to an agreement on the price, capital structure and termination fee for the takeover of T-Mobile.
Greif (GEF -1.00%) reported Q2 EPS of 61 cents, weaker than consensus of 67 cents, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.48-$2.80 from $2.60-$3.15, well below consensus of $2.99.
Whole Foods (WFM +1.78%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at Imperial Capital with a price target of $48.
Agilent (A +0.40%) adjusted its previously reported Q2 net income downward to $139 million, or 41 cents per share, a change from the second-quarter net income of $150 million, or 45 cents per share, previously announced May 14.
PVH Corporation (PVH +0.27%) dropped over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $1.47, below consensus of $1.49, and then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $7.30 -$7.40 from $7.40 - $7.50, weaker than consensus of $7.51.
Verint Systems (VRNT +0.58%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, well above consensus of 55 cents, and then raised guidance in fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.30-$3.50 from $3.20-$3.40, stronger than consensus of $3.30.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.08%) this morning are down -0.75 of a point (-0.04%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Stocks had opened lower after a +179,000 increase in May ADP employment, less than expectations of 210,000 and the smallest increase in 4 months. The S&P 500 recovered, however, and posted a record high after the May ISM non-manufacturing index rose +1.1 to 56.3, better than expectations of +0.3 to 55.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months. Stocks also found support on an upbeat Fed Beige Book. Closes: S&P 500 +0.19%, Dow Jones +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.36%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.24%) this morning are up +7 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the May ISM non-manufacturing index, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 rallied to yet another record high. Closes: TYU4 -3.50, FVU4 -0.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.066 (-0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0011 (+0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.26 (-0.25%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher after the May ISM non-manufacturing index expanded at the fastest pace in 9 months, a sign of economic strength. EUR/USD weakened ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting where policy makers are expected to expand stimulus measures. USD/JPY posted a 1-month high on speculation that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), Japan’s biggest, will diversify more of its assets into foreign investments from yen-denominated investments. Closes: Dollar Index +0.109 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00288 (-0.21%), USD/JPY +0.239 (+0.23%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 -0.31%) this morning is down -30 cents (-0.29%). July gasoline (RBN14 -0.11%) is down -0.0025 (-0.09%). July crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed slightly lower. Bullish factors included (1) a -3,431 million bbl plunge in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of -250,000 bbl, and (2) the -321,000 bbl decline in crude stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to a 5-1/2 year low of 21.37 million bbl. Crude and gasoline shed their gains and closed lower after the EIA reported that total fuel consumption in the week ended May 30 fell by -977,000 bpd, the biggest drop in 5 months. Closes: CLN4 -0.02 (-0.02%) RBN4 -0.0135 (-0.46%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/05/2014

US	0730 ET	May Challenger job cuts, Apr +5.7% y/y
	0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +10,000 to 310,000, previous -27,000 to 300,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -6,000 to 2.625 million, previous -17,000 to 2.631 million.
	0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
	1100 ET	Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $29 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Jun 10-12.
	1330 ET	Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota delivers a prepared speech on Low Real Interest Rates at Boston Colleges Annual Finance Conference.
GER	0200 ET	German Apr factory orders expected +1.4% m/m and +4.6% y/y, Mar -2.8% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Apr retail sales expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
	0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision expected -0.15 cut in 2-week refinancing rate to 0.10% and -0.10 cut in overnight deposit rate to -0.10%.
	0830 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi holds monthly press conference following ECB policy meeting.
UK	0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target, expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 375 billion pound asset purchase target.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/05/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Joy Global Inc	JOY US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.71
Navistar International Corp	NAV US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	-1.271
JM Smucker Co/The	SJM US	Bef-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.165
Kosmos Energy Ltd	KOS US	7:00	Annual General Meeting
L Brands Inc	LB US	7:30	May 2014 Sales and Revenue Call	2014
Medtronic Inc	MDT US	8:30	Analyst Meeting	Y 2014
JM Smucker Co/The	SJM US	8:30	Q4 2014 Earnings Call	Q4 2014
Navistar International Corp	NAV US	9:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
PVH Corp	PVH US	9:00	Q1 2015 Earnings Call	Q1 2015
Ingersoll-Rand PLC	IR US	9:30	Annual General Meeting	Y 2013
Greif Inc	GEF US	10:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Call	Q2 2014
Time Warner Cable Inc	TWC US	10:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Thor Industries Inc	THO US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	1.073
VeriFone Systems Inc	PAY US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.325
Gap Inc/The	GPS US		May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
L Brands Inc	LB US		May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
MGM Resorts International	MGM US		Annual General Meeting
Costco Wholesale Corp	COST US		May 2014 Sales and Revenue Release	2014
Activision Blizzard Inc	ATVI US		Annual General Meeting
tw telecom inc	TWTC US		Annual General Meeting	Y 2014
Priceline Group Inc/The	PCLN US		Annual General Meeting
Senior Housing Properties Trust	SNH US		Annual General Meeting
Alliance Data Systems Corp	ADS US		Annual General Meeting
SandRidge Energy Inc	SD US		Annual General Meeting
Concho Resources Inc	CXO US		Annual General Meeting

BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/20

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, May 20th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are down -0.08% and European stocks are down -0.28%. Vodaphone Group Plc is down over 3% after predicting that profit will decline this year and Marks & Spencer Group Plc fell over 2% after UK's largest clothing retailer reported a third straight drop in annual profit. UK gilts declined and the British pound rose after UK Apr consumer prices rose more than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.49%, Hong Kong +0.57%, China +0.02%, Taiwan -0.14%, Australia +0.21%, Singapore +0.09%, South Korea -0.14%, India +0.06%. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.24%) is up +0.16%. July gasoline (RBN14 -0.18%) is down -0.14%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.22%) is down -0.08%. July copper (HGN14 -0.52%) is down -0.36%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.01%) are up +1.5 ticks.
ECB Council member and Bank of Spain Governor Linde said that the "most immediate risk in the Eurozone today" is the possibility of a scenario of low inflation during too prolonged a period.
German Apr PPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, less than expectations of unch and an on annual basis Apr PPI fell -0.9% y/y, right on expectations.
UK Apr CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y, more than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Apr core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, more than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months.
Japan Apr nationwide department store sales fell -12.0% y/y, the biggest decline in 3 years.
The Japan Mar all industry activity index rose +1.5% m/m, less than expectations of +1.6% m/m.
The Japan Mar leading index CI was revised upward to 107.1 from the originally reported 106.5, still the lowest level in a year. The Mar coincident index was revised upward to 114.5 from the originally reported 114.0.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

There are no U.S. economic reports today. There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Medtronic (consensus $1.12), TJX (0.67), Analog Devices (0.56), Salesforce.com (0.10), Intuit (3.50), Home Depot (0.99), Staples (0.21).
Equity conferences this week include: EPG (Electrical Products Group) Spring Conference on Mon-Tue, J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Mon-Tue, UBS Global Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Oil and Gas conference on Mon-Thu, CRU World Aluminum Conference on Tue, Bloomberg CFO Conference on Tue, Digital Summit Atlanta 2014 on Tue, J.P. Morgan Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Services Unconference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Financial Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Services One-On-One Conference on Wed, National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships NAPTP MLP Investor Confere on Wed, BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Medical Devices & Diagnostics Business Review on Thu, St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2014 on Thu, and Bloomberg Industries & CME Group Precious Metals Forum on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +3.08%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, lower than consensus of 52 cents.
J.C. Penney (JCP -3.80%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Staples (SPLS +1.13%) reported Q1 EPS of 18 cents, below consensus of 21 cents.
Home Depot (HD -1.11%) reported Q1 EPS of 96 cents, weaker than consensus of 99 cents.
Dow Chemical (DOW +0.73%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Credit Suisse raised Canadian Pacific's (CP +1.11%) price target to $205 from $183 and kept an 'Outperform' rating on the stock.
Donaldson (DCI +1.54%) reported Q3 EPS of 46 cents, below consensus of 47 cents.
Carnival (CCL +1.57%) rose almost 3% in pre-market tradng after it announced it will add two new ships to its fleet in Australia, making it Australia's biggest year-round fleet of cruise ships.
According to Bloombreg, Credit Suisse (CS -0.92%) will plead guilty to charges that it assisted American citizens in evading income taxes through the use of secret accounts and will pay $2.5 billion to resolve the 3-year probe.
Mast Capital Management reported a 5% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC +0.23%) .
Bristol-Myers reported a 5.35% passive stake in Alder Biopharmaceuticals (ALDR +0.40%) .
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.11%) fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 26 cents, below consensus of 27 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Monday opened lower on Chinese economic concerns after weakness in China Apr new-home prices bolstered speculation the slowdown in China's housing market was spreading. Stocks recovered their losses and closed higher, however, on bullish factors that included (1) increased M&A activity after AT&T bought DirecTV for $48.5 billion, and (2) a rebound in internet and small-cap stocks on bargain hunting after the sectors had sold-off sharply over the past month: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.79%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.01%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed slightly lower as a rally in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM4 -1.50, FVM4 +1.750. Losses were limited after San Francisco Fed President Williams said "given where inflation is and where the labor market is, the Fed should not start raising interest rates until the second half of next year."
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.062 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after U.S. stocks erased early losses and closed higher: Dollar index -0.050 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.11%), USD/JPY +0.018 (+0.02%). USD/JPY fell to a 3-1/2 month low after a slide in global stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, while gains in EUR/USD were muted after ECB Executive Board member Mersch said that the chances of the ECB easing monetary policy further at the next meeting in June have risen "significantly."
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.24%) this morning is up +16 cents (+0.16%). July gasoline (RBN14 -0.18%) is down -0.0041 (-0.14%). July crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed: CLN4 +0.58 (+0.57%) RBN4 -0.0064 (-0.22%). July crude rose to a 3-1/2 week high on bullish factors that included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) concern that an escalation of unrest in Libya will further reduce the country's oil exports after a Libyan military police chief said he disbanded Libya's parliament. July gasoline fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower on speculation that U.S. gasoline production will increase now that seasonal refinery maintenance has ended.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/20/2014

US	1230 ET	Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook to the Women in Housing & Finance at a luncheon in Washington D.C.
	1300 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at an event hosted by the New York Association for Business Economics.
JPN	0030 ET	Japan Mar all-industry activity index expected +1.6% m/m, Feb -1.1% m/m.
	0100 ET	Revised Japan Mar leading index CI, previous 106.5. Revise Mar coincident index, previous 114.0.
	0130 ET	Japan Apr nationwide department store sales, Mar +25.4% y/y.
	0200 ET	Revised Japan Apr machine tool orders, previous +48.8% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Apr trade balance expected -646.3 billion yen, Mar -1.446 trillion yen. Apr exports expected +4.4% y/y, Mar +1.6% y/y. Apr imports expected +1.2% y/y, Mar +18.1% y/y.
	2300 ET	Bank of Japan announces policy decision after 2-day meeting.
GER	0200 ET	German Apr PPI expected unch m/m and -0.9% y/y, Mar -0.3% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Apr CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Apr core CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Mar +1.6% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Apr RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.7% y/y, Mar +2.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr PPI input prices expected -0.2% m/m and -4.9% y/y, Mar -0.6% m/m and -6.5% y/y. Apr PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y. Apr PPI output core prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/20/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
Donaldson Co Inc	DCI US	Bef-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	0.47
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc	DKS US	Bef-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.524
Medtronic Inc	MDT US	7:15	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	1.122
TJX Cos Inc/The	TJX US	9:30	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.668
Analog Devices Inc	ADI US	16:00	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	0.562
Tidewater Inc	TDW US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2014 Earnings Release	Q4 2014	0.625
Intuit Inc	INTU US	Aft-mkt	Q3 2014 Earnings Release	Q3 2014	3.498
Salesforce.com Inc	CRM US	Aft-mkt	Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.098
Home Depot Inc/The	HD US		Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.986
Staples Inc	SPLS US		Q1 2015 Earnings Release	Q1 2015	0.208