Tuesday, May 20, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 5/20

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are down -0.08% and European stocks are down -0.28%. Vodaphone Group Plc is down over 3% after predicting that profit will decline this year and Marks & Spencer Group Plc fell over 2% after UK's largest clothing retailer reported a third straight drop in annual profit. UK gilts declined and the British pound rose after UK Apr consumer prices rose more than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.49%, Hong Kong +0.57%, China +0.02%, Taiwan -0.14%, Australia +0.21%, Singapore +0.09%, South Korea -0.14%, India +0.06%. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.24%) is up +0.16%. July gasoline (RBN14 -0.18%) is down -0.14%. Jun gold (GCM14 -0.22%) is down -0.08%. July copper (HGN14 -0.52%) is down -0.36%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.01%) are up +1.5 ticks.
ECB Council member and Bank of Spain Governor Linde said that the "most immediate risk in the Eurozone today" is the possibility of a scenario of low inflation during too prolonged a period.
German Apr PPI unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, less than expectations of unch and an on annual basis Apr PPI fell -0.9% y/y, right on expectations.
UK Apr CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.8% y/y, more than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Apr core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, more than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months.
Japan Apr nationwide department store sales fell -12.0% y/y, the biggest decline in 3 years.
The Japan Mar all industry activity index rose +1.5% m/m, less than expectations of +1.6% m/m.
The Japan Mar leading index CI was revised upward to 107.1 from the originally reported 106.5, still the lowest level in a year. The Mar coincident index was revised upward to 114.5 from the originally reported 114.0.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
There are no U.S. economic reports today. There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Medtronic (consensus $1.12), TJX (0.67), Analog Devices (0.56), Salesforce.com (0.10), Intuit (3.50), Home Depot (0.99), Staples (0.21).
Equity conferences this week include: EPG (Electrical Products Group) Spring Conference on Mon-Tue, J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Mon-Tue, UBS Global Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Oil and Gas conference on Mon-Thu, CRU World Aluminum Conference on Tue, Bloomberg CFO Conference on Tue, Digital Summit Atlanta 2014 on Tue, J.P. Morgan Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Services Unconference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Financial Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Services One-On-One Conference on Wed, National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships NAPTP MLP Investor Confere on Wed, BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Medical Devices & Diagnostics Business Review on Thu, St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2014 on Thu, and Bloomberg Industries & CME Group Precious Metals Forum on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +3.08%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, lower than consensus of 52 cents.
J.C. Penney (JCP -3.80%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Staples (SPLS +1.13%) reported Q1 EPS of 18 cents, below consensus of 21 cents.
Home Depot (HD -1.11%) reported Q1 EPS of 96 cents, weaker than consensus of 99 cents.
Dow Chemical (DOW +0.73%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo.
Credit Suisse raised Canadian Pacific's (CP +1.11%) price target to $205 from $183 and kept an 'Outperform' rating on the stock.
Donaldson (DCI +1.54%) reported Q3 EPS of 46 cents, below consensus of 47 cents.
Carnival (CCL +1.57%) rose almost 3% in pre-market tradng after it announced it will add two new ships to its fleet in Australia, making it Australia's biggest year-round fleet of cruise ships.
According to Bloombreg, Credit Suisse (CS -0.92%) will plead guilty to charges that it assisted American citizens in evading income taxes through the use of secret accounts and will pay $2.5 billion to resolve the 3-year probe.
Mast Capital Management reported a 5% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC +0.23%) .
Bristol-Myers reported a 5.35% passive stake in Alder Biopharmaceuticals (ALDR +0.40%) .
Urban Outfitters (URBN -0.11%) fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 26 cents, below consensus of 27 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Monday opened lower on Chinese economic concerns after weakness in China Apr new-home prices bolstered speculation the slowdown in China's housing market was spreading. Stocks recovered their losses and closed higher, however, on bullish factors that included (1) increased M&A activity after AT&T bought DirecTV for $48.5 billion, and (2) a rebound in internet and small-cap stocks on bargain hunting after the sectors had sold-off sharply over the past month: S&P 500 +0.38%, Dow Jones +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.79%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.01%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed slightly lower as a rally in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM4 -1.50, FVM4 +1.750. Losses were limited after San Francisco Fed President Williams said "given where inflation is and where the labor market is, the Fed should not start raising interest rates until the second half of next year."
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.062 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after U.S. stocks erased early losses and closed higher: Dollar index -0.050 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.11%), USD/JPY +0.018 (+0.02%). USD/JPY fell to a 3-1/2 month low after a slide in global stocks boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen, while gains in EUR/USD were muted after ECB Executive Board member Mersch said that the chances of the ECB easing monetary policy further at the next meeting in June have risen "significantly."
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.24%) this morning is up +16 cents (+0.16%). July gasoline (RBN14 -0.18%) is down -0.0041 (-0.14%). July crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed: CLN4 +0.58 (+0.57%) RBN4 -0.0064 (-0.22%). July crude rose to a 3-1/2 week high on bullish factors that included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) concern that an escalation of unrest in Libya will further reduce the country's oil exports after a Libyan military police chief said he disbanded Libya's parliament. July gasoline fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower on speculation that U.S. gasoline production will increase now that seasonal refinery maintenance has ended.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/20/2014
US1230 ETPhiladelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook to the Women in Housing & Finance at a luncheon in Washington D.C.
1300 ETNew York Fed President William Dudley speaks at an event hosted by the New York Association for Business Economics.
JPN0030 ETJapan Mar all-industry activity index expected +1.6% m/m, Feb -1.1% m/m.
0100 ETRevised Japan Mar leading index CI, previous 106.5. Revise Mar coincident index, previous 114.0.
0130 ETJapan Apr nationwide department store sales, Mar +25.4% y/y.
0200 ETRevised Japan Apr machine tool orders, previous +48.8% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Apr trade balance expected -646.3 billion yen, Mar -1.446 trillion yen. Apr exports expected +4.4% y/y, Mar +1.6% y/y. Apr imports expected +1.2% y/y, Mar +18.1% y/y.
2300 ETBank of Japan announces policy decision after 2-day meeting.
GER0200 ETGerman Apr PPI expected unch m/m and -0.9% y/y, Mar -0.3% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Apr CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Apr core CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Mar +1.6% y/y.
0430 ETUK Apr RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Apr RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.7% y/y, Mar +2.5% y/y.
0430 ETUK Apr PPI input prices expected -0.2% m/m and -4.9% y/y, Mar -0.6% m/m and -6.5% y/y. Apr PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y. Apr PPI output core prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/20/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Donaldson Co IncDCI USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.47
Dick's Sporting Goods IncDKS USBef-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.524
Medtronic IncMDT US7:15Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.122
TJX Cos Inc/TheTJX US9:30Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.668
Analog Devices IncADI US16:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.562
Tidewater IncTDW USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.625
Intuit IncINTU USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20143.498
Salesforce.com IncCRM USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.098
Home Depot Inc/TheHD USQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.986
Staples IncSPLS USQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.208
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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