BARCHART MORNING CALL 6/30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, June 30th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.52%) are up +0.51% and European stocks are down -0.25% at a 1-1/2 week low as the markets attempt to stabilize following Monday's sell-off. European stocks recovered from their lows after an official said European Commission President Juncker set out details to Greece on how it can still reach an accord with creditors. Greek banks and the Athens Stock Exchange remain closed and it is unlikely that Greece will make a $1.7 billion payment due to the IMF today. After midnight, Greece will also no longer be formally under the protection of the European bailout program. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.63%, Hong Kong +1.09%, China +5.53%, Taiwan +0.94%, Australia +0.67%, Singapore +1.13%, South Korea +0.40%, India +0.49%.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.57%) is up +0.60%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.06%) is up +0.97%. Metals prices are lower. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.55%) is down -0.51%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.12%) is down -1.04%. Agricultural prices are mixed.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) is up +0.47%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.53%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12% at a fresh 1-month low.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.11%) are down -3 ticks.
All eyes will be on the ECB if Greece is unable to pay its $1.7 billion debt payment due to the IMF by midnight tonight. The ECB has already pumped 89 billion euros of Emergency Liquidity Assistance into Greece and ECB may withdraw its lifeline to Greece's banks if it misses the IMF debt payment. ECB Executive Board member Coeure told the Les Echos newspaper that "Greece's exit from the Eurozone, which was a theoretical point, can unfortunately no longer be excluded."

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun Milwaukee ISM (May was -0.38 to 47.70), (2) Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.80% m/m and +5.50% y/y after March's +0.95% m/m and +5.04% y/y), (3) June Chicago PMI (expected +3.8 to 50.0 after May's -6.1 to 46.2), and (4) June U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (expected +2.0 to 97.4 after May's +1.1 to 95.4).
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: ConAgra Foods (consensus $0.59).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: LoanCore Realty Trust (LCRT), ConforMIS (CFMS), Teladoc (TDOC), Ardelyx (ARDX), NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY).
Equity conferences this week include: Nasdaq Investor Program Conference on Tue

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

J.B. Hunt (JBHT -0.92%) will replace Integrys Energy (TEG -1.43%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Baxalta (BXLT) will replace QEP Resources (QEP -1.18%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
CoreLogic (CLGX -3.54%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Stephens.
Sysco (SYY -2.16%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Jamex reported a 9.5% passive stake in Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGP -2.63%) .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -5.26%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after KitGuru reported that Microsoft is interested in buying the chipmaker.
Springleaf (LEAF -3.66%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Guggenheim witha price target of $56.
Tallgrass Energy (TEP -1.77%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $56.
PG&E (PCG -0.74%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho witha price target of $56.
Boot Barn (BOOT -3.22%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at B. Riley with a price target of $35.
Blue Ridge Capital reported an 8.32% passive stake in Fitbit (FIT -4.23%) .
Apollo Education (APOL -4.95%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of 53 cents, better than consensus of 47 cents.
CHC Group (HELI -8.33%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -55 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -44 cents.
Juno ({=JUNO surged over 50% in after-hours trading after the company announced a 10-year immunotherapy collaboration with Celgene (CELG -2.55%) .

MARKET COMMENTS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.52%) this morning are up +10.50 points (+0.51%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow Jones -1.95%, Nasdaq -2.33%. The S&P 500 on Monday tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low and closed sharply lower on the Greek crisis and fears of contagion. Stocks received some underlying support from the 25 bp rate cut by the Chinese central bank on Saturday, which was an attempt to boost the Chinese economy and halt the 20% plunge in the Chinese stock market.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.11%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 +1-06/32, FVU5 +20.75. Sep T-notes on Monday jumped to a 3-1/2 week high on increased safe-haven demand with the Greek crisis and the sharp sell-off in U.S. and European stocks, along with ideas that the Fed may need to delay its rate hike due to the Greek crisis.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) this morning is up +0.445 (+0.47%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0060 (-0.53%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.12%) at a 1-month low. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.682 (-0.71%), EUR/USD +0.00699 (+0.63%), USD/JPY -1.351 (-1.09%). The dollar index fell back from a 3-week high and closed lower despite safe-haven demand tied to the Greek crisis. EUR/USD rallied back from heavy losses on talk that the ECB may front-load its QE program to provide liquidity to European financial markets and prevent contagion of the Greece debt crisis throughout Europe.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.57%) this morning is up +35 cents (+0.60%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.06%) is up +0.00194 (+0.97%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -1.30 (-2.18%), RBQ5 -0.0237 (-1.17%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower with Aug crude at a 3-week low as the Greek crisis suggested weaker energy demand in Europe. Crude oil prices were also undercut by positive comments by EU foreign policy chief Mogherini, who said that diplomats are "close to a deal" to curb Iran's nuclear program, which may lead to an increase in Iranian crude exports if economic sanctions against Iran are reduced.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/30/2015

US	0900 ET	Jun Milwaukee ISM, May -0.38 to 47.70.
	0900 ET	Apr S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +5.50% y/y, Mar +0.95% m/m and +5.04% y/y.
	0945 ET	Jun Chicago PMI expected +3.8 to 50.0, May -6.1 to 46.2.
	1000 ET	Jun consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +2.0 to 97.4, May +1.1 to 95.4.
	1200 ET	USDA Q2 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report.
JPN	0000 ET	Japan May vehicle production, Apr -7.5% y/y
	0100 ET	Japan May construction orders, Apr -12.1% y/y.
	0100 ET	Japan May housing starts expected +5.5% y/y to 915,000 annualized, Apr +0.4% y/y to 913,000 annualized.
	1950 ET	Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected unch at 12, Q1 unch at 12.
	2135 ET	Revised Japan Jun Markit manufacturing PMI.
GER	0200 ET	German May retail sales expected unch m/m and +2.8% y/y, Apr +1.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
	0355 ET	German Jun unemployment change expected -5,000, May -6,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unch at 6.4%.
UK	0430 ET	Revised UK Q1 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +2.5% y/y, previous +0.3% q/q and +2.4% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Apr index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.4% 3-mo/3-mo.
	0430 ET	UK Jun Lloyds business barometer, May 55.
EUR	0500 ET	Eurozone Jun CPI estimate expected +0.2% y/y, May +0.3% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +0.8% y/y, May +0.9% y/y.
	0500 ET	Eurozone May unemployment rate expected unch at 11.1%,
CHI	2100 ET	China Jun manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 50.4, May 50.2. Jun non-manufacturing PMI, May 53.2.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/30/2015

Company	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	7:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Release	Q4 2015	0.59
ConAgra Foods Inc	CAG US	9:30	Q4 2015 Earnings Call	Q4 2015
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd	ENH US	9:30	Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2015
Energizer Holdings Inc	ENR US	Aft-mkt	Energizer Holdings Inc. Replaces Harsco Corp. in S&P MidCap 400
Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc	ISIS US	17:10	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Marvell Technology Group Ltd	MRVL US	19:00	Annual General Meeting	Y 2015
Apple Inc	AAPL US		Apple's Debut of Apple Music" Streaming Service"
Brookdale Senior Living Inc	BKD US		Annual General Meeting