Tuesday, January 26, 2016

MORNING CALL 1/26

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.35%) are up +0.28% and European stocks are up +0.11% as they mirror movements in oil prices which are up +0.86%. Global stocks were under pressure from Chinese economic concerns after China's Shanghai Composite plunged -6.42% to a 13-1/2 month low. On the positive side, mining stocks rose as the price of gold (GCG16 +0.69%) climbed +0.59% to a 2-1/2 month high and copper prices (HGH16 +1.53%) rose +1.33% to a 2-week high. Signs of stronger Chinese demand is giving metals prices a boost after Chinese customs data showed China Dec imports of refined copper surged +34% y/y to 423,000 MT and China Dec gold imports from Hong Kong surged +67% from Nov to 111.3 MT. European stocks also gained as Siemens AG rose after it boosted its earnings forecast and Royal Philips NV jumped over 5% after it reported better-than-expected Q4 profit. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -2.35%, Hong Kong -2.45%, China -6.42%, Taiwan -0.83%, Australia and India closed for holiday, Singapore -1.43%, South Korea -1.31%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.11%) are up +5 ticks on the heels of a rally in German bunds as the 10-year bund yield fell to a 4-3/4 month low of 0.432%.
The PBOC added 440 billion yuan ($67 billion) into the financial system via reverse-repurchase agreements, the most in 3 years, as it tries to keep borrowing costs down and boost liquidity ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday that begins Feb 8.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) the first day of the FOMC's 2-day policy meeting, (2) Nov FHFA house price index (expected +0.5% m/m, Oct +0.5% m/m), (3) Nov S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.80% m/m and +5.64% y/y, Oct +0.84% m/m and +5.54% y/y), (4) Jan Markit services PMI (expected -0.3 to 54.0, Dec -1.8 to 54.3), (5) Jan U.S. consumer confidence from the Conference Board (expected unch at 96.5, Dec +3.9 to 96.5), (6) Jan Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected -4 to 2, Dec +9 to 6), and (7) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
There are 23 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Apple (consensus $3.23), AT&T (0.63), Capital One (1.61), Johnson & Johnson (1.42), Procter & Gamble (0.98).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Ameriquest (AMQ).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Cleantech Forum San Francisco on Tue-Wed, Real Estate Capital Markets 2016 Seminar on Wed.






OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.49%) reported Q4 EPS of $3.76, well above consensus of $2.94.
Procter & Gamble (PG -0.66%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.04, higher than consensus of 98 cents.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.36%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.44, better than consensus of $1.42.
PG&E Corp. (PCG -1.43%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equalweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Crane Co. (CR -2.75%) dropped over 4% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $3.85-$4.15, below consensus of $4.27.
Graco (GGG -2.02%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 93 cents, well above estimates of 78 cents.
Rambus (RMBS -1.75%) rallied over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, better than consensus of 15 cents.
Centene (CNC -2.71%) slid almost 2% in after-hours trading after it said six hard drives with health information on 950,000 were unaccounted for.
Swift Transportation (SWFT -1.51%) climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, higher than consensus of 47 cents.
SunEdison (SUNE +2.64%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after SunEdison stakeholder Greenlight Capital reported that it raised its stake in 13D to 6.8% from 5.9% reported September 30.
Relypsa (RLYP +0.05%) jumped over 8% in after-hours trading after it said studies showed no meaningful reduction in absorption for 9 of 12 drugs that had previously demonstrated binding in vitro tests when its Veltassa drug was administered at the same time.
Aratana Therapeutics (PETX +1.59%) surged nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it filed New Animal Drug Application for its Galliprant drug for control of pain and inflammation in dogs with osteoarthritis.
Sanmina Corp. (SANM +0.70%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on Q2 adjusted EPS to 55 cents-59 cents, above consensus of 54 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.35%) this morning are up +5.25 points (+0.28%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -1.56%, Dow Jones -1.29%, Nasdaq -1.48%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on the sharp -7.4% sell-off in oil prices, carryover weakness from a fall in European stocks after the German Jan IFO business climate index slid to an 11-month low, and the unexpected -13.0 point drop in the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index to a 6-3/4 year low of -34.6 (weaker than expectations of +5.6 to -14.5).
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.11%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYH6 +5.50, FVH6 +1.50. Mar T-note prices on Monday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the the slide in stocks and on the plunge in crude oil, which undercut inflation expectations and may delay further Fed rate hikes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.087 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0023 (-0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.14 (+0.12%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.214 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.0053 (+0.49%), USD/JPY -0.48 (-0.40%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on the plunge in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index to a 6-3/4 year low and on weakness in USD/JPY. the yen was boosted by safe-haven demand for the yen with the sell-off in stocks and by BOJ Governor Kuroda's comment that "we don't think the current market situation has been affecting corporate behavior unduly," which reduced speculation that the BOJ will expand stimulus at its Thu/Fri policy meeting.
Mar crude oil (CLH16 +0.89%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.86%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -0.22%) is up +0.0105 (+1.00%). Monday's closes: CLH6 -2.39 (-7.42%), RBH6 -0.0641 (-5.78%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed sharply lower on signs that Saudi Arabia will not cut back on oil production despite low prices after the chairman of state-run oil company Saudi Aramco said that Saudi Arabia can sustain low oil prices for "a long, long time." Crude oil and gasoline prices were also undercut by expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA data will show crude inventories rose +4.0 million bbl and by the snowstorm along the U.S. East Coast that has reduced air and automobile travel and reduced gasoline demand.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/26/2016
US0900 ETNov FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Oct +0.5% m/m.
0900 ETNov S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.80% m/m and +5.64% y/y, Oct +0.84% m/m and +5.54% y/y.
0945 ETJan Markit services PMI expected -0.3 to 54.0, Dec -1.8 to 54.3. Jan Markit composite PMI, Dec -1.9 to 54.0.
1000 ETJan consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected unch at 96.5, Dec +3.9 to 96.5.
1000 ETJan Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -4 to 2, Dec +9 to 6.
1130 ETFOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $26 billion 2-year T-notes.
CHI2030 ETChina Dec industrial profits. Nov -1.4% y/y.
2045 ETChina Jan Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment, Dec 113.7.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/26/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Corning IncGLW USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.318
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.258
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2015-0.179
Procter & Gamble Co/ThePG USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.979
Lockheed Martin CorpLMT USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.94
Waters CorpWAT USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.95
Prologis IncPLD USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.619
Coach IncCOH USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.662
Danaher CorpDHR US6:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.27
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ US6:45Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.419
Dover CorpDOV US7:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.742
WW Grainger IncGWW US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.227
WW Grainger IncGWW US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
3M CoMMM US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.622
Parker-Hannifin CorpPH US7:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.178
American International Group IncAIG US8:00Business Update Call
Danaher CorpDHR US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US8:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Corning IncGLW US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Procter & Gamble Co/ThePG US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Waters CorpWAT US8:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Coach IncCOH US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
3M CoMMM US9:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Dover CorpDOV US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Parker-Hannifin CorpPH US11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Lockheed Martin CorpLMT US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Prologis IncPLD US12:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Becton Dickinson and CoBDX US13:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Apple IncAAPL US16:00TLIV Top Live Blog
Stryker CorpSYK US16:00Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.551
Chubb LtdCB US16:05Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20152.286
Capital One Financial CorpCOF US16:05Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.608
AT&T IncT US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Apple IncAAPL US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20163.227
Stryker CorpSYK US16:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
CA IncCA US17:00Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Total System Services IncTSS US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Apple IncAAPL US17:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Capital One Financial CorpCOF US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
CA IncCA USAft-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.578
AT&T IncT USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.633
Total System Services IncTSS USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.601
Navient CorpNAVI USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.49
Hormel Foods CorpHRL USAnnual General MeetingY 2016
Affiliated Managers Group IncAMG USQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20153.604
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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