Friday, October 30th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.12%) are up +0.13 at a 2-1/4 month high as better-than-expected Q3 earnings results from Linkedin and Expedia gave stocks a boost, while European stocks are down -0.24% after German Sep retail sales came in weaker than expected. Also, European personal and household goods makers declined, led by a 5% fall in L'Oreal, after it reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales. European stocks also fell after Eurozone Sep core CPI rose a more than expected +1.0% y/y, and the Eurozone Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 3-1/2 year low, which may keep the ECB from expanding QE. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.78%, Hong Kong -0.79%, China -0.14%, Taiwan -0.20%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.19%, India -0.68%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 2-1/4 month high after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the government may introduce additional budget measures if Japan Q3 GDP, due to be released on Nov 16, shows the economy needs aid. The BOJ refrained from expanding stimulus measures following today's 2-day policy meeting after BOJ Governor Kuroda and his fellow policy makers blamed the slide in oil prices for keeping inflation from reaching the BOJ's 2.0% target. The BOJ now expects inflation to rise to its target around the 6-month period through Mar 2017, 1 year later than a previous estimate of Mar 2016.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) is down -0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.33% after Eurozone Oct core CPI rose more than expected and the Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 3-1/2 year low, which reduces the chances that the ECB will boost QE. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.63% as the yen strengthened after the BOJ refrained from expanding stimulus.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.10%) are up +4 ticks.
Eurozone Oct CPI was unch y/y, right on expectations. Oct core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, more than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 from a downward revised 10.9% in Aug to 10.8%, better than expectations of no change ay 11.0% and the lowest in 3-1/2 years.
German Sep retail sales were unch m/m and rose +3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
Japan Sep national CPI was unch y/y, right on expectations. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food fell -0.1% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.2% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.9% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 6 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q3 employment cost index (expected +0.6%, Q2 +0.2%), (2) Sep personal spending (expected +0.2%, Aug +0.4%) and Sep personal income (expected +0.2%, Aug +0.3%), (3) Sep PCE deflator (expected -0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +0.3% y/y) and Sep PCE core deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y), (4) Oct Milwaukee ISM (expected +4.56 to 44.00, Sep -8.23 to 39.44), (5) Oct Chicago PMI (expected +0.8 to 49.5, Sep -5.7 to 48.7), (6) San Francisco Fed President John Williams's speech at an event at the Brookings Institute on the natural rate of interest and the economy’s trend growth rate, and (7) final-Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (expected +0.4 to 92.5, prelim-Oct +4.9 to 92.1).
There are 21 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Exxon (consensus $0.89), Chevron (0.76), Moody's (1.06), AbbVie (1.08).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Ardelyx (ARDX), Innovation Economy (MYIE).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Weyerhaeuser (WY -0.38%) reported Q3 EPS of 35 cents, higher than consensus of 25 cents.
Phillips 66 (PSX +1.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $3.02, well above consensus of $2.25.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX -4.70%) slid 7% in pre-market trading after Phildor RX Services LLC, a pharmacy that fills prescriptions for Valeant, was said to have altered doctors' prescriptions in order to get more reimbursements out of insurers.
Linkedin (LNKD +1.78%) surged 13% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, well ahead of consensus of 45 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.63 from a previous estimate of $2.19, higher than consensus of $2.23.
Live Nation (LYV -1.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 43 cents.
Starbucks (SBUX -1.59%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 EPS of 44 cents-45 cents, below consensus of 47 cents, and said it sees revenue growth of 10% on a 52-week basis, below consensus of 12%.
Expedia (EXPE +1.00%) rose 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.07, better than consensus of $2.02.
Fluor (FLR -1.42%) dropped over 1% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $3.50-$4.00, below consensus of $4.07.
Genworth Financial (GNW -0.95%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating EPS of 13 cents, weaker than consensus of 22 cents.
Solarcity (SCTY -0.70%) tumbled over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 EPS loss of -$2.10, a wider loss than consensus of -$1.91.
Lending Club (LC -2.71%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 4 cents, double consensus of 2 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 operating revenue to $420 million-$422 million from a previous estimate of $405 million-$409 million, above consensus of $408.5 million.
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI -3.79%) dropped nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, below consensus of 37 cents.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK -0.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.11, higher than consensus of $1.06, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $5.18 from a July estimate of $5.15, above consensus of $5.14.
YRC Worldwide (YRCW +3.13%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 61 cents, nearly double consensus of 31 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.12%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.13%) at a fresh 2-1/4 month high. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones-0.13%, Nasdaq -0.17%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed slightly lower on the +1.5% increase in U.S. Q3 GDP (weaker than expectations of +1.6%) and the unexpected -2.3% m/m decline in U.S. Sep pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 1-3/4 years).
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.10%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYZ5 -19.00, FVZ5 -8.75. Dec T-notes on Thursday tumbled to a 1-month low and closed lower on negative carryover from Wednesday's post-FOMC meeting statement that left open the possibility of an interest rate increase at the Dec FOMC meeting.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) this morning is down -0.282 (-0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0036 (+0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.76 (-0.63%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.500 (-0.51%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.49%), USD/JPY +0.04 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S Q3 GDP and Sep pending home sales reports, which may further delay an Fed interest rate increase. In addition, there was strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.3 to a 4-1/2 year high of 105.9, and after German Oct CPI rose +0.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of unch y/y, which reduces the chances of the ECB expanding QE.
Dec crude oil (CLZ15 +0.35%) this morning is up +19 cents (+0.41%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 +1.09%) is up +0.0188 (+1.40%). Thursday's closes: CLZ5-0.19 (-0.41%), RBZ5 +0.0017 (+0.13%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday settled mixed with Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Crude oil and gasoline prices received a boost from a weaker dollar and expectations that refinery utilization rates will increase, and refinery demand for crude will climb, now that refineries are nearly finished with their seasonal maintenance. Negative factors included the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q3 GDP and Sep pending home sales reports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Q3 employment cost index expected +0.6%, Q2 +0.2%. |
| 0830 ET | Sep personal spending expected +0.2%, Aug +0.4%. Sep personal income expected +0.2%, Aug +0.3%. | |
| 0830 ET | Sep PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +0.3% y/y. Sep PCE core deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. | |
| 0900 ET | Oct Milwaukee ISM expected +4.56 to 44.00, Sep -8.23 to 39.44. | |
| 0945 ET | Oct Chicago PMI expected +0.7 to 49.4, Sep -5.7 to 48.7. | |
| 1000 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at an event at the Brookings Institute on the natural rate of interest and the economys trend growth rate. | |
| 1000 ET | Final-Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index (University of Michigan) expected +0.4 to 92.5, prelim-Oct +4.9 to 92.1. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Sep vehicle production, Aug -4.7% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | Japan Sep housing starts expected +5.8% y/y to 936,000 annualized, Aug +8.8% y/y to 931,000 annualized. | |
| 0100 ET | Japan Sep construction orders, Aug -15.6% y/y. | |
| n/a | BOJ announces interest rate decision. | |
| GER | 0300 ET | German Sep retail sales expected +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Aug -0.6% m/m and +2.5% y/y. |
| UK | 0530 ET | UK Oct Lloyds business barometer, Sep 42. |
| EUR | 0600 ET | Eurozone Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 11.0%. |
| 0600 ET | Eurozone Oct CPI estimate expected unch y/y, Sep -0.1% y/y. Oct core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Sep +0.9% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aon PLC | AON US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.24 |
| Chevron Corp | CVX US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.758 |
| Colgate-Palmolive Co | CL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.721 |
| Eaton Corp PLC | ETN US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.967 |
| Mylan NV | MYL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.376 |
| Newell Rubbermaid Inc | NWL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.613 |
| Exelon Corp | EXC US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.707 |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp | PNW US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 2.318 |
| Weyerhaeuser Co | WY US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.247 |
| Welltower Inc | HCN US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.1 |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.495 |
| Moody's Corp | MCO US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.06 |
| Seagate Technology PLC | STX US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.488 |
| AbbVie Inc | ABBV US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.081 |
| Legg Mason Inc | LM US | 7:00 | Q2 2016 Earnings Release | Q2 2016 | 0.663 |
| CVS Health Corp | CVS US | 7:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 1.29 |
| Phillips 66 | PSX US | 7:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 2.251 |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 7:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.811 |
| Rockwell Collins Inc | COL US | 7:30 | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 1.401 |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 8:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Release | Q3 2015 | 0.886 |
| Legg Mason Inc | LM US | 8:00 | Q2 2016 Earnings Call | Q2 2016 | |
| Eastman Chemical Co | EMN US | 8:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Genworth Financial Inc | GNW US | 8:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Aon PLC | AON US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Ford Motor Co | F US | 8:30 | Investor Day | Y 2015 | |
| CVS Health Corp | CVS US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Newell Rubbermaid Inc | NWL US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| American Tower Corp | AMT US | 8:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Leggett & Platt Inc | LEG US | 9:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Rockwell Collins Inc | COL US | 9:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Seagate Technology PLC | STX US | 9:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| AbbVie Inc | ABBV US | 9:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 9:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Eaton Corp PLC | ETN US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Mylan NV | MYL US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Weyerhaeuser Co | WY US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Welltower Inc | HCN US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Boston Properties Inc | BXP US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| FirstEnergy Corp | FE US | 10:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Chevron Corp | CVX US | 11:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Co | CL US | 11:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Exelon Corp | EXC US | 11:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Public Service Enterprise Group Inc | PEG US | 11:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Flowserve Corp | FLS US | 11:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Moody's Corp | MCO US | 11:30 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp | PNW US | 12:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Phillips 66 | PSX US | 12:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Essex Property Trust Inc | ESS US | 14:00 | Q3 2015 Earnings Call | Q3 2015 | |
| Microchip Technology Inc | MCHP US | Q2 2016 Earnings Release | Q2 2016 | 0.629 |
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